08/30/2013 10:14AM

Del Mar: Michael Hammersly's Analysis August 31, 2013

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Michael Hammersly's Analysis [BEST BET: Rookie Sensation (10th race)]

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1 GHOST N YOUR HEART found $20K foes and a red-hot Spring Breeze (entered in a tough N1X later today, race 6) too much to handle but kept to her task well to be 3rd. Prior to that she beat $16K foes and today's 2-level drop under that price ($12,500) can get her back on track. ROSSI RESERVE is a real pro - hey, you don't win 10 times by accident. She's 2 for 3 here as well, including a nice win for $8K Aug. 2, and Sierra, who lost her the race prior, snatched her right back. It's nice to see the 2-level class hike off the claim, too. SUANCES FLOWER, an AE going a mile for just $8K Thursday, was entered back here. This is a better trip and the fact she's remains in at her claimed level encourages. Closer Looks >>
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2 CONFISIO was a very nice 2nd in his sprint debut here Aug. 17, not beaten all that far (1 1/2 lengths) by the promising Baffert runner Can the Man (who will reportedly come back in Wednesday's G1 DMR Futurity). He's worked well since for Mitchell who's strong 2nd time out (21%) and is bred to route being by a G2 route SW and kin to route winner Bipartisan. SOUTHERN FREEDOMcertainly fits off 2 fine sprints here to start his career this sumemr. Like the top pick he's worked well since and is bred to handle this longer game. BOURNE HOT has a feel for the route as he went a mile on grass Aug. 8, though he had the misfortune of running into the highly promising Diamond Bachelor. He still ran well (3rd) and has the distance experience edge on the entire field. Closer Looks >>
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3 BEACHCOMBING may be sitting on a win. After being sidelined 10 months he came here and was a decent 4th July 18, then a smart 2nd to today's foe DANDEREK Aug. 10. He looks headed the right way and should get a nice trip stalking DANDEREK again, and today's extra half-furlong helps, too. HUSBAND'S FOLLY ran into some tough cusotmers here Aug. 9 and was by no means disgraced. He was an AE and scratched out of a seemingly tougher spot Wednesday. DANDEREK led them on a merry chase going 1 1/16 miles here Aug. 10 and figures to try and play keep away once again, and he lands the rail again, which helps. He does have to try and hold on another half-furlong but he led all the way to win going 10fs at BHP in May 2012. Closer Looks >>
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4 NEW YEAR'S DAY flashed talent in his sprint debut when after a sluggish start he ran on nicely for 3rd, even if he was no threat (beaten 4 lengths). That was still an encouraging first run and with that under his belt he gets a shot at a route, and with that pedigree this figures to be the game this $425K purchase wants. He is stuck on the far outside, however. CARSON'S TEN added blinkers, tried a turf route Aug. 8 and ran on nicely for 2nd behind the highly promising stakes-bound Diamond Bachelor. That shows he routes and the Rock Hard Tens seem to run on anything, so the surface switch shouldn't be an issue. BOND HOLDERlooks headed the right way and surely figures to prefer the distance game after starting his career with 3 sprints, particularly with a HOY sire, HOY grandsire and HOY damsire who all did best routing. He's also kin to Rawley (4 wins, 2 routing). Closer Looks >>
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5 LIAISON scratched from the G1 Pacific Classic Sunday when trainer Baffert didn't like the inside draw. Also, at this stage of the game the deepest waters are probably a tad too much for him. He takes a slight drop today and should be in line for a great trip stalking what figures to be an ample pace. The outside draw is best for him, too, as he likes racing in the clear. A month or so agoCLUBHOUSE RIDE would have been a short price here but the rugged campaigner, who's spent much of this year chasing monster Game on Dude, came up sick after his G2 San Diego dud here. The good news is he's worked sharply of late so he may well be back on track - though you always worry how they'll return after an illness. WILKINSON is interesting as he moves to synthetic, gets blinkers and worked fast. He has late oomph so he could be the surprise package as there's quite a bit of speed lined up here. Closer Looks >>
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6 SOCIALBUG debuted with much fanfare here July 21 and the $300K sister of champion sprinter Midnight Lute didn't disappoint as she blasted maidens. She did that after a slow start, still had the speed to lead and won geared down. It's a huge step up in class to face winners for the first time but you've seen many a big Baffert maiden winner handle this class hike with aplomb. SPRING BREEZE has really come into her own and looked super blasting $20K claimers here Aug. 7. Sure, those were just claimers but O'Neill not only saw fit to claim her but opts to put her in a tough spot like this, which speaks of confidence. She's worked well since, too. LLANDUDNO finished strongly to just miss in a similar spot here Aug. 10 and figures to be coming for the meet's leading barn. Closer Looks >>
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7 STOLE A KISS kept to her task well for 3rd here Aug. 3, but had the misfortune of hooking the impressive Sunday Rules (came back to romp in Wednesday's Generous Portion). That heat was flattered further as the 2nd-place and 6th-place fillies came right back to win. She's drawn nicely outside where she can use her stalking style. EDDIES CURL exits the same race as the top pick but after pressing the pace she faded to 7th. She's capable of better, though, as she was actually favored that day after finishing 2nd to the talented Sprouts (entered in today's G1 DMR Debutante) in the CTBA here july 19. SWISSARELLA was 4th in that same Aug. 3 race that the top 2 exit and her good 2nd at BHP June 29 shows she has the necessary oomph - she beat STOLE A KISS that day. Closer Looks >>
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8 UNUSUAL HEATWAVE darn near won the El Cajon here a year ago (3rd to multiple GSWs Fed Biz and Jimmy Creed). He wasn't seen for over 11 months before returning in a turf sprint here Aug. 1. He broke slowly and was no factor but it was surely a race he needed and he may actually be better on this footing and at this trip. Three big works since say he's primed. TIZ THE TRUTHlooked like a potential Derby horse this winter with that monster maiden win Feb. 2 but has been sidelined since. He's working well, though, and Baffert thought enough of him to also enter him in Friday's El Cajon. Still, the hurdles are many (first time vs. winners, first time vs. elders, long layoff). BLUE TONE was smashing blasting maidens at BHP July 11 but then ran into the red hot Soi Phet here Aug. 10 and was only 4th as the 8-5 favorite. Still, he's worked well since and that big maiden shows there's some big talent here. Closer Looks >>
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9 AWESOME BABY was just that in her debut here Aug. 4, going right to the lead and expanding her margin from there. She since posted a bullet 6fs (1:11) to indicate she holds her edge and while she showed high speed Aug. 4 she doesn't figure to be a need-the-lead type with her pedigree, which is surely a good thing since SHE'S A TIGER figures to be out there sizzling. She may be the top 2yo filly out West. SHE'S A TIGER, kin to G1 SW sprintiner Smiling Tiger, has already shown her quality and high speed. She gets blinkers today so she might show even more speed, and a bullet 1:12 Aug. 23 says she's doing great. The rail filly doesn't figure to let her get too far away, however, and there's another half-furlong to deal with. CONCAVE is unbeaten in 2 starts and the real deal. She kept to her task nicely to reel in SHE'S A TIGER in the G2 Sorrento. SECRET COMPASS added blinkers and graduated nicely July 28, so this $425K sales buy gives Baffert another bullet, as does $1.3 million sales buy FASCINATING (kin to top-class Bodemeister). Closer Looks >>
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10 ROOKIE SENSATION has found his game with the addition of blinkers, Espinoza and move to routing. He beat maidens on BHP's synthetic track June 16 and then came here and finished gamely to be a sharp 2nd to 3yo turf stakes horse Surfcup. That stamps him the one to beat and 4 smart August works say he's ready to go. RANULF laughed at maidens on BHP's main track June 16 but then blew the start as the 5-2 favorite in a main-track sprint here July 28 and was no factor. He's worked well since and with his pedigree turf and this distance should be no problem at all, so he's eligible to bounce back. CACAU, a half to Hong Kong HOY Good Ba Ba looks like a new horse after a spring hiatus and his speed should have him in the thick of it from the start. They thought enough of him to also enter him in Friday's El Cajon. Closer Looks >>
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11 SIDEBAR's only start was so-so (5th after a slow start and more traffic troubles) and now Spawr asks her to face tougher straight maidens. However, Spawr hasn't been a fixture on this circuit for decades because he puts his horses in the wrong spots and there's a huge :58.40 bullet Aug. 25 (best of 66 that day) to indicate this gal is doing great. Spawr isn't one to hammer down on his horses in the a.m. so that type of work is eye-opening and may mean she's ready to fire, and at a price. WASTED AT MIDNIGHT came back after nearly 11 months on the bench and was a nice 3rd to the highly promising Socialbug (in today's 6th). Remember, they thought enough of her last year as a maiden to take a swing at the G1 DMR Debutante. ILLICIT AFFAIR showed talent for Baffert at BHP July 7. She's been freshened and has worked steadily since. Closer Looks >>
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