07/30/2013 11:18AM

Del Mar: Brad Free's Analysis July 31, 2013

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Brad Free ’s Analysis [BEST BET: Spring Up (3rd race)]

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1 T DOESN'T ADD UP has speed and the rail. That was an effective combination in Polytrack sprints for most of the first two weeks of the meet. The gelding drops to $10k claiming following a prep at BHP; trainer Cody Autrey's horses are running well (three wins, three seconds). DOMONATION was claimed for $20k, and drops immediately to $10k. Not a sign of optimism, but the Mark Glatt trainee picks up leading rider Rafael Bejarano and will roll late. POSITION A is 3-for-8 at DMR and also dropping, from $16k. He has enough speed to be forwardly placed. He was listed as a vet scratch one week ago. Closer Looks >>
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2 A front-runner on the rail, CRAVIN' THE HEAT wheels back in a week and drops slightly in class after a fourth-place comeback vs. special-weight California-breds. That was her first start in four months; she has a history of improving second time out. LITTLE BIT CACTUS lost eight starts in Arizona, but finished in the money six times. She adds blinkers for her first try in California for new trainer Jeff Mullins while facing a modest field. JEN'S HOT is a first-time starter from a stable that typically races its maidens into shape. But this field is not that great, and she qualifies as a contender on the "new-face-in-a-weak-race" angle. Closer Looks >>
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3 The pick six begins here, with a $261,359 carryover. Economy-sized tickets may consider SPRING UP as a single. Claimed from a crushing maiden sprint victory two weeks ago on this track, he stretches out and steps up in class in peak form. He won that sprint by more than four lengths, finished well and galloped out strongly past the wire, and was claimed by John Sadler. Bred to run long, the lightly raced colt can become the meet's first two-time winner. MAGNUM FORCE ran better than his last-start finish position suggests. He made a run at the leaders, then was no match for runaway winner Soi Phet, who returned to romp in a July 20 allowance. 'FORCE has no speed, but he will roll late. SOLID SOUTH was the beaten favorite in the Soi Phet race. Third all three tries at this level (maiden-40 starter), he will be grinding late. Closer Looks >>
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4 This restricted (N2L) $16k clamiing is difficult for pick-six bettors. JAY'S FIRETRUCK is stuck at this level, but the 1-for-17 veteran does have four straight in-the-money finishes. This is his first start since early June; he runs well fresh. Comebacker LITE THAT BABY UP appears well-spotted. Freshened four months and returning at the bottom, the gelding meets a field filled with stretch-out sprinters. The pace should be lively; that benefits his closing style. HURRY HOME CLOVER drops off a claim, which is not a good sign, but he has never lost at this level. This is his first start for Bill Spawr. 'CLOVER and and CHICO SUERTE are the only entrants in the body of the race that have not lost at this level or lower. Also-eligible EYESABLAZIN fits off two recent grass races; BEAST OF BOURBON earned a relatively good number last time finishing second in a sprint at this level. Lightly raced ALMOST BETTER finished second vs. similar last out, while PRIME NUMBER goes long first off the Cody Autrey claim. He might be the one to catch. Closer Looks >>
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5 VOLKONSKY fits the reliable historical pattern of Don Warren-trained, Old English Rancho-owned prospects. That is, steady and deliberate improvement. VOLKSONKY, runner-up all three starts, is sitting on a maiden win in this turf route for California-bred maidens. He was compromised last time by the slow pace; the DMR turf course generally plays fair to his closing style. RED GLOBE has a habit of slow starts, yet does have a late kick. 'GLOBE finished third last time vs. open company and drops to face state-breds. BRAVE ACT went fast on the lead and finished a good third in a race from which the winner already came back to win again. 'ACT is an improved horse this summer, and fits as a contender on the front end. After the first 10 turf routes at this distance (mile and sixteenth) were won by closers, two turf races Sunday were won by the pacesetter. Closer Looks >>
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6 This is a weird N1X California-bred sprint, due to a lack of true speed. INDIAN CLASSIC might make the lead by default, based on the fractions he set two starts back. A dull third last out vs. similar, he could use his speed to set/press an easy tempo near the rail. That was the place to be most of the first two weeks. It is unknown if the bias will continue; the main track was fair to all styles Sunday. BALLARD RULER returns from a long layoff with sharp works, an affinity for this track, and established ability to fire fresh. He was a top-ranked California-bred 2-year-old last fall. Based on his works, the Tribal Rule colt appears to have returned as a good 3-year-old. This is his first start since November. BENCH POINTS wins his share (5 of 19) and likes this track (2 for 4). He drops from open $40k claiming into a state-bred N1X/optional $25k. MORNING FOG won a highly rated N2X two starts back; PASSING GAME has earned figures that make him a fit; RELENTLESS HEAT drops in class. He was a vet scratch June 20. Closer Looks >>
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7 Third in the G3 Hollywood Juvenile, WILLIE B AWESOME is the logical favorite dropping in to face California-breds. He was compromised by pace and strategy last time, when rated behind slow fractions. 'WILLIE still tried to rally; he was gaining at the wire. Assuming the fractions are legitimate and the track plays fair, 'WILLIE can wear them down as the "best horse" in the field. The fillyMOVING DESERT put it all together her third career start. The difference was strategy. She engaged in a duel her first two starts, but last out she settled off the pace and finished strongly. The timing of this stake is not ideal (back in two weeks), but she is a laid-back filly who acts like she can wheel right back and do it again facing colts. She and race-3 choice Spring Up are trying to becomine two-time winners at the meet. GANGNAM GUY has two key attributes. Those are speed and the rail. Improving each start, the 2-year-old wired a good field last time; the runner-up returned to win a maiden race opening weekend. 'GUY is quick enough to make the lead inside, he appears to have trained well over this track, and is a front-end threat. SMOOVE IT, another filly, skipped the CTBA July 19 (won by another J. Paul Reddam-owned filly). SMOOVE IT finished in front of 'DESERT last time winning a good maiden race at BHP. Closer Looks >>
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8 This is another odd sprint without apparent speed. It is a maiden-20 that comebacker ATHINA LEE can win. Dropping from maiden special-weight to maiden-claiming, first since June, blinkers on, first for Peter Miller. Lots of reasons to like her. PARTY BUS returned from a layoff with one of her best races. She finished third by three lengths and drops from maiden-32 to maiden-20. Good fit. FLAXEN MAIDEN pressed the pace and tired in her comeback early this month. Second start back and dropping in class, she fits at this level. First-time starters AND SHE WAS and PRECIOUS BEST merit consideration simply on the new-face angle. WARREN'S CHASER posted a bullet workout here 12 days ago. Closer Looks >>
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