07/19/2013 4:23PM

Del Mar: Brad Free's Analysis July 20, 2013

Email

DRF Plus Preview

#

Brad Free's Analysis East Sky (4th race)

Links

1 CONGREGATIONALIST was gelded during a recent three-month break, and returned as an improved horse. The "first-time-G" crushed maiden-30s by nearly five with a respectable 72 Beyer. He can fire right back against starter-allowance winners.ORANGEYOUACUTIE was a well-bet maiden-20 debut winner last month. He was claimed by Vann Belvoir, who is 13-for-57 first off the claim the past two years in Southern California. His 22-percent win rate f.o.c. produced a flat-bet profit ($2.28 return on investment for each $2 win bet). SHINING SON is the "other" Belvoir starter, shortening in distance and switching to the main track. He was a vet scratch July 6, but worked an easy half-mile on this track one week later Closer Looks >>
DRF Picks >>
2 AVARE offers an effective summer "class angle." That is, a 3-year-old dropping for the first time into a claiming race after facing exclusively allowance and stakes company. Winner of an "off-turf" stakes in December, he is a first-time gelding according to the overnight, and reunited with Rafael Bejarano. A maiden winner last fall on turf, he exits a Churchill Downs allowance. IMPERATIVEfinished a respectable fourth last out while running for a $50k claim tag on turf at Golden Gate. His closing rally was negated by the race-shape; the two pacesetters dominated start to finish. With speed to run at, he enters as a contender rallying from off the pace.MAGIC CHANNEL makes his U.S. debut for trainer Mike Mitchell, also listed on the overnight as a first-time gelding. DIRTY SWAGG is first-time claiming tag. Closer Looks >>
DRF Picks >>
3 Leading Del Mar trainer in 2012, Peter Miller began the 2013 meet in style by winning at the first two races Wednesday. Miller is loaded with "live" stock including PURE BLUSH, winner of a maiden-40 starter allowance two starts back. Overmatched vs. N1X foes last out, she drops to $12.5k claiming and stands out against a soft lineup. LONG LEGGED LOVELY returned to form last time with a sharp runner-up finish on turf at Golden Gate in just her second start since last summer. She faces a similar cast in this Polytrack race, and will roll late. She is trained by Steve Knapp, who also entered first-off-the-claim KATY'S KITTY. The latter is a 5-for-27 pro whose course record is misleading. Three starts on DMR Poly, she has not hit the board. But one of those was her 2010 career debut vs. special-weight maidens in which she finished fifth at 52-1; in 2011 she clipped heels and fell; and in 2012 on Polytrack she was a respectable fourth. Maybe she deserves another chance. DRF Picks >>
4 EAST SKY stands out in this main-track allowance for California-breds. His only synthetic-surface start since being claimed by Mike Mitchell was a dominating sprint two starts back at Betfair Hollywood Park. He has been freshened two months, and pointed specifically to this. He has a versatile running style and is the fastest in the field. ALL DE VICTORS had a tough trip in the same race the top choice exits. 'VICTORS started twice on this track last summer, winning a restricted claimer at 17-1 and finishing a good third at 14-1. He seems a better horse on the Del Mar main track than anywhere else. Lightly raced FONZ stretches out for his third start. He trounced Golden Gate sprinters in his debut, and then finished a closing fifth vs. N1X competition at Pleasanton. Not sure if he is a closing sprinter or if he can move up in his initial try around two turns. Closer Looks >>
DRF Picks >>
Spot Plays >>

 

5 UNUSUAL HOTTIE won all three starts during the spring meet at BHP including two minor stakes. Her most recent was her best yet and validated when runner-up Customer Base returned to win a stakes. 'HOTTIE has had six weeks between starts, worked well since, and on paper looks like one of the most probable winners on the card. TOP KISSER was no match for the top choice two starts back, but then returned to wire N2X foes. 'KISSER has won fourof her last five, and will be positioned in front of the top choice when they turn for home. I DAZZLE wheels back two weeks after a decent fourth-place finish with trouble in a Grade 2. These are easier, obviously. Closer Looks >>
DRF Picks >>
Spot Plays >>

 

6 First-time starter SHAKAHARI scratched from a maiden turf race Sunday at BHP, worked a sharp five furlongs Monday, and starts as a "live" contender in this special-weight for 2-year-olds. A son of win-early stallion Indian Charlie, he reportedly flashed speed in workouts and gets a five-pound weight break with apprentice Irving Orozco. First-timer GLOBAL VIEW posted a series of fast works on Polytrack at Arlington Park, had two easy drills at BHP, and debuts for the Tom Proctor-Gary Stevens combo. If his AP works are an indication, he should like the DMR synthetic, and fire first out. Proctor won with three of his last four juvenile first-timers at DMR. GUNS LOADED is bred for speed (by D'Wildcat) with a series of fast works for trainer Cody Autrey. Closer Looks >>
DRF Picks >>
7 HAIL MARY faces a potentially compromising pace scenario in this N1X sprint; others in this field have the same up-front running style. However, she has run well previously in fast-pace races including a runner-up finish in a state-bred stake three starts back, followed by a nine-length allowance blowout. Freshened since she misfired in the Railbird Stakes, her recent works are good and she looks like the speed of the speed. Come catch her. HEAT TRAP has a closing style that could play well in a race likely to unfold at a quick tempo. She is 2-for-2, both starts on turf. No reason she will not handle synthetic. Offspring of Unusual Heat run on all surfaces. WHAT A SPOT returns from a four-month layoff with sharp works. She won her career debut in winter, so she does fire fresh. Closer Looks >>
DRF Picks >>
8 The California turf division is shallow; this G1 came up soft. It is a perfect spot for a new shooter from overseas such as SOFAST. Group 2-placed in May, he arrived recently from France and makes his U.S. debut straight off the plane for trainer Gary Mandella. The colt's European form is solid, his local foes are shaky. FED BIZ has a chance to steal it. The likely pacesetter, his two grass races in spring at Santa Anita were decent. He faces only one apparent pace foe, and is quicker than that one. JERANIMO might have lost a step at age 7, but he will finish in his second start back from a layoff. SLIM SHADEY is the aforementioned pace rival for FED BIZ. This is a very weak G1, actually. Closer Looks >>
DRF Picks >>
Spot Plays >> Stakes analysis >>

 

9 This is the fifth straight summer that veteran JOE CARL has raced at DMR. He won here in 2009 and 2010, finished second in 2011, and was unplaced twice in 2012. The veteran was re-claimed last time by Doug O'Neill, who trained the veteran for wins in his first two summer campaigns. Looks like enough speed to flatter the 12-FOR-44 veteran's closing rally. ROCK THIS WAY wired $16k claimers last out and also returns to a track on which he has had success. He won a race here each of the past two summers. His up-front running style is problematic, however, because sprint-to-route CHICSDIGTHESHARK could be winging out front. DRF Picks >>
Spot Plays >>

 

10 THRILLS AND CHILLS reportedly trained well into his debut two weeks ago, but was dead on the board at 21-1, broke slowly, and raced near the back. Now he drops from maiden-50 to maiden-20, and should move forward with a clean start. CHOCOLATIER had trouble both starts vs. special-weight maidens. Easier group here, obviously. PATRIOTIC LION is a 25-start maiden with 12 in-the-money finishes. Someday. Closer Looks >>
DRF Picks >>
Spot Plays >>