07/19/2013 12:21PM

Del Mar: Brad Free's Analysis July 19, 2013

Email

DRF Plus Preview

#

Brad Free’s Analysis [BEST BET: Harlington's Rose (7th race)]

Links

1 Twilight racing, first post 4 p.m. DISTANT IMAGE can upset stretching to a two-turn race short on speed. She was claimed last out by Vladimir Cerin and figures to be forwardly placed. The challenge is distance. She is only 2-for-15 in routes, 3-for-10 in sprints. In a tough opener, she can spring a surprise. SECRET COVE makes her first start since being claimed two and a half months ago. She was a vet scratch June 2, but her spring form ($50k claiming win) makes her logical; she won on this course two summers ago.CAMELIA ROSE could go favored based on the company she has kept in N2X and stakes races. However, she has underachieved since arriving from Europe. Winless in nine U.S. starts, beaten favorite three times, always promises more than she delivers. Wrong pattern, but first time in a claiming race could be the right move. TOOMANYTOMATOS won at this level three back; MELTARIB is third start off the bench; OUR HEAT won three straight at Golden Gate. Closer Looks >>
DRF Picks >>
2 Northern California shippers won 12 races and produced a flat-bet profit here last summer; SPACE RUNNER can add to the pattern. He crushed a restricted claimer for older on dirt last out at Pleasanton, and previously had a win and two seconds in three starts on GG synthetic. Claimed last time by Vann Belvoir, he can fire right back in a modest claiming race for 3-year-olds. LUZ ATTICUSfinished second last time in a highly rated race won by 6-for-9 Bodaway. Freshened since that runner-up try, his last-start 82 Beyer tops the field. It also means he will be overbet. Count on 'ATTICUS to be forwardly placed. BUBBA FIZZ won here last summer, and goes route to sprint while dropping in class. Look for him late. MANEWAL drops from allowance and might be ranked too low. Closer Looks >>
DRF Picks >>
3 The initial turf sprint by DOOR'S OPEN was merely a fifth-place finish, but it was actually a good try. He pressed a fast pace in that six-furlong race, led to inside the eighth pole, then got swallowed by closers. It was a good effort by the lightly raced gelding. Freshened a month and a half, working well, he cuts back to five furlongs and might be the speed of the speed. The late-runners in this lineup look soft. FIELD REPORT has ability, but the five-time runner-up (one win) has demonstrated a reluctance to pass horses in the lane. He prefers to run alongside, hence five seconds. He ran well again last time, runner-up in an apparently strong race, and might like this shorter distance. MY SLEW should be finishing at a price, while FREE TIME adds speed. The claiming race he won last time was flattered when the sixth- and eighth-place finishers returned to win. Closer Looks >>
DRF Picks >>
4 BACKINTHEACADEMY is sitting on a win based on solid runner-up finishes her last two starts. Last out she finished more than nine lengths clear of third; two starts back she finished more than four clear. If she transfers her Cushion Track form to Polytrack, she can knock off this $20k maiden-claiming route. MAGIC NUMBER drops from maiden special-weight to rock bottom, while switching for the first time to the main track. Tough to tell how much ability she has based on her first four starts, off-the-board finishes each time. First time in for a tag, she can improve. FATA MORGANA is a second-time starter dropping in class for a trainer that does well with second-start maidens. She finished in front of only one rival in her 54-1 debut. These are easier. HARD BUNS might be ranked too low. Her recent GG campaign was okay, this is her first time at the bottom class level and first time on synthetic. Closer Looks >>
DRF Picks >>
5 The fourth-place debut by WATER ISSUES was okay. With expected improvement second out, the 2-year-old McCann's Mojave filly can post an upset. First out she lacked speed, raced evenly, and ran like a filly that wants more ground. She gets it in this five and one-half furlong sprint. Her dam Revillew Slew was always good in summer; she was a Del Mar specialist. Revillew Slew won twice on DMR dirt in 2000; had a DMR dirt and turf win in 2001; and won another on DMR dirt in 2002 for a total of five DMR wins. Expectations are for WATER ISSUES to move up a ton with a race under her belt. Wouldn't hold that low Beyer Figure (27) against her. All 2-year-olds this summer at BHP earned low numbers. YODELMESOMEMAGIC actually ran better than the top choice in the same race. 'MAGIC lost considerable ground wide on the turn, battled to deep stretch, and missed by a nose. The only knock is that was her fourth start. TRIBAL TATTOO is a debut homebred by Tribal Rule. She is trained by Doug O'Neill; her jockey Mario Gutierrez is coming off a surprisingly successful BHP meet. Closer Looks >>
DRF Picks >>
6 This good turf allowance for 3-year-olds looks similar to the opening-day Oceanside Stakes. SURFCUP won a California-bred stakes last out over Oceanside (first division) entrant Gervinho. SURFCUP is now 3-for-3 on turf, and the obvious choice regardless of the Oceanside effort of Gervinho. PURE LOYALTY finished only a neck behind Oceanside (second division) starter Rosengold. All three turf efforts by 'LOYALTY have been sharp (two wins, one second). LITTLE JERRY has faced tough company through his 1-for-7 career. His turf form is good; the horse that beat him last time (Uno Dos Adios) might be a good one. HORIZON SKY finished third in all five U.S. starts. Closer Looks >>
DRF Picks >>
7 HARLINGTON'S ROSE might be the speed of the speed in this stakes for 2-year-old California-bred fillies. And she can be long gone. She added blinkers for her third start, battled through a tough pace and won going away more impressively than the figure gives credit. Her win was validated when the two-three finishers returned to finish third and first. She can win if she puts awaySPROUTS, which will not be easy. SPROUTS followed her daylight maiden win with a sharp score in the $100k Cinderella Stakes. Two-for-two and the high-figure filly in the field, she is likely to start favored. She drew the rail, and must win it the hard way by taking heat every step. SAY'S WHO ran around the track without visible incident in a dull sixth-place debut. Nonetheless, 2012 leading DMR trainer Peter Miller wheels her back in a state-bred stakes. Have to believe she is better than her first start suggests. SMOOVE chased the top choice first out, and then improved to win her second start. EDDIES CURL broke slow in her debut, raced wide, and missed by a length in a maiden-50. She might have been best. Closer Looks >>
DRF Picks >>
8 MAJOR AFFAIR drops for the first time in a maiden-claimer, second start back. He faced decent company early in his career.TENKILLER KID was claimed from a runner-up finish in which he ended up more than five lengths clear of third. Up a notch from maiden-30 to maiden-40, he figures as a logical contender. STREET CHOIR is a first-time starter with slow works. No problem. John Sadler maidens do not always work fast. KNOW PLANS is an Unusual Heat firster trained by Barry Abrams, while BRANNAMAN always gets bet, and hit the board only once. Closer Looks >>
DRF Picks >>