08/07/2013 12:35PM

Del Mar: Brad Free's Analysis August 8, 2013

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Brad Free's Analysis [BEST BET: Miss Ellany (7th race)]

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1 The gamble is DISTANT IMAGE is better than her most recent start. That was three weeks ago on this course when she had an uncomfortable trip finishing fifth of six. She dueled early, got stalled and swallowed by traffic at the quarter pole, and did not really have a fair chance. She ran races in spring and early summer that are fast enough to beat these. Blinkers are off, the switch to Kayla Stra could prove beneficial, and she should start at a generous price. Tab for an upset. KOKO LOCA takes a significant drop from N2X to $32k claiming. She was not disgraced against Miss Ellany (favored to win race 7); this is the first time 'LOCA raced for a tag. Trainer Doug O'Neill's runners are hitting the board often, many of those seconds and thirds could become winners. SMART STRIKING has a recent win and second vs. lesser. SECRET COVE ran races in spring that put her in the hunt. Maybe she needed her last. Closer Looks >>
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2 A $40k maiden-claimer for 2-year-old fillies, this race is drab. SWISS SUGAR set the pace to the sixteenth pole in her debut. The splits were easy, but at least she showed run. She can win if she improves second time out for trainer Steve Knapp. PATTY WACKdrops for the first time into a maiden-claimer. This also is her first start in two months, and is "live" first start back. INHERIT THE THRONE lost ground last time yet missed by only four lengths. She has had a couple of better-than-looked efforts, and will be closing ground late at a price. RAJA'S ROSE has an even-paced style. She will be outrun early, and pick them up late. Closer Looks >>
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3 This turf sprint is a tough call between the two front-runners drawn inside. The call is PROMISCUOUSSUANCES, likely speed of the speed. First off the claim by Peter Miller, into a Calbred race from which she cannot be claimed, turf rails at 14 feet and shortening to five furlongs. Come catch her. HORSESANDDIVORCES returns from a layoff with a series of sharp works for trainer Kristin Mulhall. Her two best races were turf sprints; her works say she is ready to fire first start since January. ATTA GIRL ALMA has a couple recent runner-up finishes at BHP. She will come from the back half of the field, which has not been the winning profile this meet in turf sprints. Most turf sprints have been won by speed. A number of contenders are on the also-eligible list. Closer Looks >>
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4 AKISS FORAROSE is the only filly in this 3-year-old claiming route that has not previously run for a tag. She has numbers fast enough. FIRENDESIRE goes long for the first time, as the likely speed of the field. However, as a general rule, synthetic is not the best track for a stretch-out sprinter. TEBOWING is a turf filly trying Polytrack for the first time. She will rally from far back. AWE' SOME KITTEN won a turf race here opening week. She will try to make it two straight switching to Poly. She has run well on the main. DRF Picks >>
5 BOURNE HOT did not run badly in his debut, finishing sixth of seven. He raced evenly throughout, like a 2-year-old colt that wants to run long, and gets that opportunity second out for the Doug O'Neill-Rafael Bejarano combination. The switch to turf won't hurt. Expect a big forward move second time out. OSO SMART looks like a smart $50k claim. He finished a promising third behind the talented Station House in a fast turf route; this is his second time long. CARSON'S TEN goes long second time out, with a route type pedigree. He is from a stable that races its maidens into form. The race he exits turned out to be not so good (Hollywood Juvenile), but this is only his second start. Blinkers-on can help. Closer Looks >>
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6 This main-track sprint is a good spot for Golden Gate shipper JUSTALITTLELOOPY. She won a N2X sprint two starts back, and shows up with top figures in this $32k claimer. Shippers have won a ton of races this summer; this claiming race makes sense for the five-time winner who is still short of $100k earnings. JOYCE AND ME has been battling and winning vs. similar, though not often. Usually close, she was claimed off a runner-up finish last out by Jerry Hollendorfer. The filly that beat her (J And S Express) returned Sunday to finish midpack vs. state-bred allowance fillies. SO SHE DANCES looks like the only late speed in this sped-filled lineup. This race has the potential for a meltdown, which would put it right in DANCES' lap. WOEBEGON is a 5-for-18 win type, returning at the same level of her last-start win for new trainer Robertino Diodoro. MADOFFWITHTHEMONEY has speed and helps keep it honest up front. Looks like a lot of speed in this field. DRF Picks >>
7 MISS ELLANY moves up again following back-to-back dominating victories vs. N1X and N2X fillies and mares. She is sharp, fast and improving each start. She is likely the pace of the race again, the turf rails are 14 feet. The third-place finisher from her most recent was race-1 contender Koko Local. HARD TO RESIST drops from stakes. Her only recent tries vs. allowance foes were wins and in-the-money finishes. DANCINGTOTHESTARS has been in some tough California-bred stakes races recently. She got a good prep in the $100 Osunitas, and drops into a N3X. The inside three all seem like a stretch. Closer Looks >>
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8 This maiden-20 route can be won by BARDY, second off the layoff for trainer Art Sherman. The gelding ran well here last summer around two turns, and a return to that race would make him the likely winner. AFFIRMED ARCH moves back to two turns after a series of decent seven-furlong races. He may have benefitted from a track bias last out, however. CHOCOLATIER showed nothing in two starts vs. special-weight maidens. He drops to maiden-20 in a now-or-never exercise. Closer Looks >>
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