08/06/2013 1:11PM

Del Mar: Brad Free's Analysis August 7, 2013

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Brad Free’s Analysis [BEST BET: Queen of the Hill (3rd race)]

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1 Two good turf sprinters trained by Peter Miller are top contenders in this turf sprint including SUMMER EXCLUSIVE, the comeback mount for jockey Garrett Gomez. 'EXCLUSIVE was compromised last time by a hot pace; he faded to sixth. Freshened since that June 21 effort, and dropping from open allowance to N2X, the lightly raced (2-for-4) colt can return to form in a race with a lot less speed. Most turf sprints this meet have been won with front-running/pace-pressing trips. The second Miller entrant is 5-for-16 A TOAST TO YOU, a turf-sprint winner here last summer. This is his first start since March; four starts at this N2X level produced a second and two thirds. ET TU WALKER was one of three three-time winners during in spring at BHP; he missed by a nose last time. 'WALKER will get another ground-saving trip from just off the speed and will roll late. EL MIRAGE KING will keep the top choice honest. Closer Looks >>
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2 SUDDEN RUMOR has worked well for his debut; the sibling to Cal Breeders' winner Got Even can fire first out in a scramble for state-bred 2-year-olds. A bullet gate work July 29 suggests the Birdonthewire gelding is well-meant for trainer Phil D'Amato (2-for-12 with first-time starters). SMOGCUTTER showed speed and faded in the lane in his debut. That race was dominated by closers; the speed faded. With a race behind him, SMOGCUTTER can only improve. SIR BARCLAY, a sibling to multiple winners Pulpit's Express and Chocolate Caliente, makes his career debut with a decent work pattern. GO FIRST might be ranked too low. He ran super finishing a closing second in his May 24 debut, misfired next out in the Willard Proctor, and has not started since that June 15 race. He figures as a top contender based on his first start. Closer Looks >>
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3 A $265,129 pick six carryover is up for grabs. The sequence begins with a potential single. QUEEN OF THE HILL enters with a decided pace advantage. The front-running filly should hold a commanding lead turning for home in a $20k claiming sprint for fillies and mares that came up short on speed. 'HILL and jockey Kayla Stra can make the lead, open up, and race gate to wire. METAXA is likely to be positioned closest to the top choice, and would get first run if that one falters. METAXA is a consistent pace-presser claimed off her most recent start. She figures to be racing alone in second position; all the others in the field are closers. SEAN Sdrops in class first start since late June for a productive trainer-jockey combination. The past five years, Joshua Litt and Victor Espinoza are 11-for-33 together. ADDENDUM drops a notch following a decent third; SPRING BREEZE makes her California debut for winning connections. Closer Looks >>
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4 Third-place finisher in a Group 3 in Ireland in late June, the 2-year-old filly CLENOR makes her U.S. debut for trainer Doug O'Neill while dropping into a maiden race. She had an easy five-furlong work here one week ago and looks ready to fire first out. She is a candidate for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Filly Turf. SIERRA ELECTRICA finished third behind the impressive debut winner Conclave last month in a turf sprint at BHP. She showed an even-paced running style in that sprint, and should stay a mile. Trainer Kristin Mulhall scored upsets here Friday and Saturday. HUGH KNEW, stablemate of the top choice, sprints like a filly that can improve at this longer distance. She had traffic trouble her first two starts. AMY JANE adds blinkers and is quick enough to make the lead; EXOTIC BEHAVIOR might be ranked too low by this handicapper. She raced wide and ran evenly first out in a sprint won by her heavily favored stablemate Cadron. That fifth-place finish was a useful prep. Tab for improvement second time out, first time long. Closer Looks >>
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5 PINING PLAY was overmatched against Conclave and company in a special-weight turf sprint on July 12. She chased partway, and then faded. 'PLAY drops to maiden-28/30 for her second start, switches to the main track, and should move up a ton against this softer group. WICKEDLY SASSY was a well-bet disappointment in her debut two weeks ago, though she had a tough trip. She broke slowly, was uncomfortable racing inside, sucked and back steadied, and then coasted to the wire. It was a tossout race. She adds blinkers, worked an easy half-mile since raced, and moves to the middle of the field. Maybe she can improve. Key word: maybe.TRIBAL TATTOO showed brief speed and faded in her debut. She also might improve. The truth is, this race is an absolute scramble. Closer Looks >>
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6 ISMENE is working like a filly that will fire first start back from a three and a half-month layoff. Runner-up last out in a $100k stakes at seven and one-half furlongs, she benefits by the cutback to six furlongs over a track on which she posted a bullet six-furlong workout last week. A stakes winner at age 2, stakes-placed twice at age 4, she is ready to roll in a good N2X sprint. MINDS EYESfinished with a rush opening week in a promising comeback, her first start since February. She won a maiden race on this racetrack last summer, and will roll late in a sprint likely to unfold at a quick tempo. THERE IS NO LIMIT was overmatched opening week against G1 winners Reneesgotzip and Executiveprivilege. That was her first since May; she can move up against this easier group. TRIBAL GAL adds speed, CHARM THE MAKER will pick them up late. Closer Looks >>
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7 The debut by 2-year-old filly CONCAVE was outstanding and stamps her as a likely winner of this G2. In her debut, CONCAVE allowed the speed to clear, moved outside, pressed the pace while full of run, shook off her pace rival and stormed home to win full stride. It was a powerful effort by a promising filly who posted a sharp six-furlong workout one week ago on the DMR main track. Top prospect. STOP SMILING broke slowly in her debut, but ran like a seasoned pro thereafter and won going away. She broke last from the rail, saved ground while moving into a forward position, was content racing inside and behind horses, angled out into the lane and rolled to a sharp score. It was a good start to her career; she is the best late threat. SHE'S A TIGER won the Landaluce Stakes to make it 2-for-2 in her brief career. Hard to fault a filly that won both starts, but her wins earned ordinary speed figures (68 Beyer, followed by 63). To her credit, the Landaluce victory was better visually than the number. Closer Looks >>
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8 CRYSTALLINE INDY was fairly well bet in her debut (5-1), but broke slowly and merely ran around the track without excessive encouragement. That race seemed to be a prep. She has three good works since at DMR, and meets what looks like a modest field of California-bred fillies and mares. With logical improvement second out, she can post a mild upset. SUANCES PRIDE adds blinkers and gets off the rail after a pair of decent efforts at BHP. This field is not exactly loaded with speed, and 'PRIDE is expected to be set or press the pace. LAKESIDE BRIDE is a 15-start maiden with nine in-the-money finishes. One of these days, she might find a field she can beat. She is better than her most recent start indicates. Closer Looks >>
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William Tate More than 1 year ago
not sure why all the negativity. Thisis analyasis, not prediction. and I think he does a good analysis. make up your own mind, always, or why play the game?
John More than 1 year ago
Has there EVER been a favorite Brad Free hasnt selected ? I think not ! Last year, his biggest winner paid a wopping $4.40..................Im being facisious, but hey the guy has never in his life selected anything over 8-5, well 9-5 ONCE !
erika More than 1 year ago
He selected Celtic Moon on top (who went off 11/1) in the Best Pal S a few days ago.
Jay More than 1 year ago
Anyone that listens to anything Brad Free has to say is obviously bored......Free is an awful handicapper who always recommends favorites and is very arrogant at times when someone doesn't agree with his opinion....I remember a few years back when he beliitled all the connections of Rapid Redux for setting the North American record for consecutive wins.....It pained him to even acknowledge the horse let alone give him or his connections any praise....Hes the mail reason I watchTVG instead of Hrtv.....When he comes on my tv goes elsewhere!!!!!!
JOHN More than 1 year ago
Not saying hes a good handicapper, but im pretty sure he hit a $40,000 pick six with a $20 ticket.