08/02/2013 12:14PM

Del Mar: Brad Free's Analysis August 3, 2013

Email

DRF Plus Preview

#

Brad Free’s Analysis [BEST BET: Include Me Out (8th race)]

Links

1 First-time starter HOLD EVERYTHING has trained like a 2-year-old that will fire in his debut for trainer Bob Baffert. Although his sire Corinthian gets only 8 percent debut winners, the colt is the first foal to start from his stakes-winning dam Mykindasaint. She won her career debut as a 2-year-old by six lengths (Lone Star, May 25, 2005). RUM POINT has something the top choice lacks. That is, racing experience. He set a strong pace and finished third in his debut last month. With a race under his belt, he is eligible to improve. KNOCK EM FLAT is a better colt that his last-place debut suggests. He was bet to favoritism in the Hollywood Juvenile last month, but he broke slowly, bobbled and trailed. He came back with two sharp workouts and might be ranked too low by this handicapper. Must use in pick five. Closer Looks >>
DRF Picks >>
2 BIG WAGS misfired his last out, but figures to return to form first off the re-claim by trainer Bill Spawr. The gelding's five starts for Spawr produced four wins and a second. Spawr lost him two starts back, then re-claimed him at this $16k level. SMOKIN' CAT has not started in a year, but his comeback works are solid and he proved in September 2011 he runs well following long layoffs. That was a dominating special-weight win at Fairplex first start back from a nine-month layoff. 'CAT was a good allowance-caliber veteran a year ago and probably good enough to fire first start back for trainer John Sadler. QUIET COMMAND is a new shooter from Lone Star, seeking his third straight after back-to-back turf wins in Texas. EAST SKY appeared uncomfortable his first start this meet, finishing nowhere as the 8-5 favorite in a Calbred N1X. Not sure if he likes this racetrack, but he does face easier and posted a bullet three-furlong workout here on Monday. Closer Looks >>
DRF Picks >>
3 The last three starts by Bob Baffert trainee BANK THE EIGHT were losses in races won by another Baffert runner (So Brilliant, Castaway, Coil). BANK THE EIGHT faces a familiar dilemma in this seven-furlong sprint. His main foe is from the same stable,AMAZING HEARTED. Either can win, both are well-meant. A class drop from N2X to $50k claiming points to 'EIGHT as the choice. As for AMAZING HEARTED, he won a highly rated (88 Beyer) maiden-$62.5k two months ago in his debut. That race was validated when runner-up Cast a Doubt and fourth place Afflication returned to win. Looks like a coin flip between the two Bafferts. DRESS CODE is a 7-year-old pro that finished in the exacta 22 of 45. Claimed last out by Mike Puype, he will roll late. Based on the races run on Sunday, July 28 and Wednesday, July 31, the early-season speed bias seems to have dissipated. That would be good for the closing style of DRESS CODE. Closer Looks >>
DRF Picks >>
4 The third-place debut by PULLA TRAIN was promising; the gelding can win second time out for trainer Eric Kruljac, whose maidens typically improve with racing. First out, 'TRAIN was void of speed, raced greenly while climbing early, made a good move wide through the turn, and finished evenly in a race dominated by the one-two pacesetters. Assuming he breaks cleanly second out, and a surface fair to all running styles, PULLA TRAIN can win second time out. The past five years, Kruljac is 4-for-100 with first-time starters ($1.55 ROI), and 13-for-78 with second-start maidens ($2.11 ROI). TOP MARQUEE is bred to win early. A son of terrific debut sire In Excess, he has a good work pattern for trainer Phil D'Amato, who does not "show off" maidens with fast works. Have to believe it is a "go" first time out. BRO'S BRO is best of the experienced runners, and likely one of the favorites after a good runner-up finish in the race the top choice exits. 'BRO probably will set the pace. Closer Looks >>
DRF Picks >>
5 An interesting N2X main-track route kicks off the pick six; "win type" MEGA HEAT is the one to beat. He defeated a good field in his recent comeback; the runner-up returned three starts later to win a N2X, the third- and fifth-place place finishers returned to win their next start. MEGA HEAT is 6-for-11 overall, 2-for-3 on the Del Mar Poly, and moving up a notch after that good $50k claiming comeback win. ROUSING SERMON will pick them up late, as always. In the money three straight at this N2X level, he does not win often but he will be finishing. HUNTSVILLE finished a creditable third in his return from a layoff of three and one-half months. He can improve for trainer Barry Abrams, who is gaining momentum (winners on Sunday and Wednesday). Closer Looks >>
DRF Picks >>
6 The turf rails were scheduled to be moved Friday to 14 feet; the tighter configuration could produce an increased number of front-running winners. If so, HEART STEALER could steal it. She set a blistering pace and finished third in her California debut, then slowed down next out and held second. This is her third start back; her only option from the outside post is try to steal it. Come catch her. PRETTYPRICEYGIRL was claimed from a good win for $25k. She returns "protected" (no claim tag) in a N1X with a versatile style that should lead to a good trip positioned right behind the speed. WARREN'S FLASHER upset California-bred N1X types last out including Zanbo, the favorite to win race 6 on Friday. Also-eligible TOOMANYTOMATOES was claimed off a runner-up finish for $40k by Mike Mitchell. Tough post, but Mitchell is super first off the claim. Closer Looks >>
DRF Picks >>
7 A runner-up finish in a $100k stakes opening week makes EDDIES CURL the choice as she drops into a maiden race for California-bred 2-year-old fillies. She finished nearly four lengths clear of third in that stakes. First-time starter SUNDAY RULES has a good work pattern for trainer Mike Mitchell. Sired by Tribal Rule, she is a sibling to winners Tribal Dress and Sudden Sunday.SWISSARELLA finished a creditable third last out; third-place finisher Moving Desert returned to score a smart maiden win and then finish second in the $100k Graduation Stakes on Wednesday. MISS LOUJEAN switches to the main track after a good runner-up debut on grass at BHP. Closer Looks >>
DRF Picks >>
8 INCLUDE ME OUT won her comeback geared down, reportedly trained super since, and enters as a potential standout. She won this Grade 1 by a neck last year near the end of a demanding campaign; this summer she is fresh and making only her second start of the season. The top filly or mare based in California last year, she can reclaim her spot at the head of the division. Class act. VIA VILLAGGIO is rounding into form and making her third start back from a layoff. Her return effort was dull, but she improved second start back while finishing second behind a loose-on-the-lead winner. Back on her preferred surface (synthetic), she picks up jockey Mike Smith and has a chance to outrun her price. This race was always the summer target. BYRAMA is another synthetic-surface pro, stretching back to a route. She won the G1 Vanity two back at BHP, and proved last summer she likes DMR. Closer Looks >>
DRF Picks >>
9 JUST IRISH tried this class level ($16k claiming, N2L) only once. That was two starts back when he broke slowly and finished fourth. A subsequent turf-route experiment was unsuccessful, so he shortens back to a sprint and returns to the level at which Doug O'Neill claimed him. Blinkers on, he can win with a clean break. EYESABLAZIN has route speed and drops for the first time to the bottom class level. He has been losing ground late in his routes, which suggests he may prefer this shorter sprint distance. BOB CONSULTATION continues his class descent searching for his proper level, while PROCHETTO is another racing for the first time at the bottom. Closer Looks >>
DRF Picks >>
10 PULPIT'S EXPRESS trounced a similar field of California-bred allowance runners last out, but was disqualified for causing interference. It was the proper call by stewards, but also unfortunate because he was tons best. That race was more than three weeks ago, he returns at the same level and looks like a probable winner. But he must catch another horse also trained by John Sadler. That is ETHNIC DANCE, who got loose on an easy lead and demolished maidens last out by more than six. If he can get the same lone-frontrunner trip, he will be dangerous, particularly with the rails at 14 feet. Also-eligible lister MAYBE TUESDAY looms the upsetter, first off the claim by Jeff Mullins. He once was this good. If he draws in, he should outrun his odds, at least. Closer Looks >>
DRF Picks >>

 

Robynrokn More than 1 year ago
Your freakin tote board isn't working or updating for Delmar tonight, per usual. WHY do the tote feeds die at night?