08/21/2013 10:26AM

Del Mar: Brad Free's Analysis August 22, 2013

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Brad Free's Analysis [BEST BET: Market Notes (4th race)]

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1 Six-horse fields rarely offer value, but SHACKBAMALAMA might be overlooked by bettors off two subpar races. He drops in class from $40k claiming to $20k, returns to the main track, and makes his third start back from a short layoff. His races in spring (all sprints) are fast enough to win this one-mile race. BEAST OF BOURBON was claimed from a third-place finish in a $16k claimer vs. older (non-winners two). He will roll late in this claiming route for 3-year-olds. HARDLINER missed by only a half-length under similar circumstances last month. He actually ran best of the speed; the winner rallied from sixth. HUNGER is the likely pacesetter. He stretches out from a sprint, adds blinkers, and is likely to attempt a theft. However, the last one-mile race on Polytrack won by a pacesetter was way back on Aug. 1. That was 14 one-mile races ago. Closer Looks >>
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2 TOOMANYTOMATOES missed by only two lengths last out in a N2X, and now faces considerably easier in this California-bred N1X/optional $25k claimer. Most o fher recent races have been on turf, but she handled synthetic early in her career. The 5-for-16 filly can mow them down late. Lightly raced COTTON'S POINT returned this year as an improved 3-year-old. She crushed maidens last month and now stretches to a mile. Not sure if two turns will be the best distance for the daughter of sprint sire Salt Lake, but there is no denying her sharp current form. The maiden race she won was validated when third-place finisher Tiz a Kiss returned to win last week. OUR HEAT drops from a third-place finish vs. open company (she finished behind the top choice) into an allowance for state-breds. Closer Looks >>
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3 The pick six starts with a competitive N2X turf marathon in which DREAMCATCHER is the logical horse to beat. Runner-up both recent starts at this level, a mile and three-eighths appears within range based on his winter races at a mile and a quarter.EXTENSIVE finished a respectable third behind Marketing Mix and Dhaamer in the G3 Sunset last month at BHP. He drops in class for his first start of the meet over a turf course on which he had a win and two thirds last summer. STARSPANGLED HEAT looms the upsetter, wheeling back in five days while making his third start back and stretching to the longest distance of his career. HUNTSVILLE will roll late. Closer Looks >>
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4 A creditable third-place debut by MARKET NOTES sets up the 2-year-old for a likely win second time out. He dueled between foes and missed by less than a length. The fourth-place finisher from that Pleasanton race returned to win Aug. 9 at DMR. Blinkers are on for the second start by 'NOTES, leading rider Rafael Bejarano is up, and a series of sharp works on this surface suggest he is ready to fire first start since early July. TOSHEEN is an interesting first-time starter by City Zip; maidens trained by Peter Miller are typically ready to fire first time out. Miller won with four of his first six juvenile first-time starters in spring, but was winless with 10 juvenile first-timers since. Still looks like this gelding is "live" first out. MR. CACTUS drops after he faced good company two starts against special-weight maidens (Celtic Moon later finished second in a graded stakes; Station House will be one of the favorites Sept. 4 in the Oak Tree Juvenile Turf). Closer Looks >>
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5 This is a difficult $8k claiming sprint for fillies and mares. LANIDA went too fast on the lead last time after breaking from the inside and subsequently weakened to fifth. She moves from the rail to post 4, and might be the one to beat with a pressing trip. Several others are in with a chance including droppers SEAN S and TRIBALICIOUS. The recent comeback by SEAN S was poor, but she drops to the bottom second start back for a productive trainer-jockey combination (Joshua Litt and Victor Espinoza 11-for-35 past five years). TRIBALICIOUS tumbles in class, shortens to a sprint and switches to the main track. WARREN'S JUDY meets open company after a big restricted claiming win; KOKO LOCA finished fifth as the favorite in a $32k claiming race last out, and now shows up for $8k. Not a good pattern, but trainer Doug O'Neill has been on a roll. Closer Looks >>
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6 Runner-up both tries at this maiden-40 starter allowance level after imperfect takeoffs, lightly raced MIDNIGHT LADY posted a fast workout here five days ago and is a logical choice to win from off the pace. This is only her fourth start. HERE'S TO ROSE put it all together last out with a highly rated maiden-40 win that was her first start on Polytrack. Claimed from that fast (81 Beyer) win by Adam Kitchingman, she enters with the top figure in the race. LETS GET FRISKY finished two lengths behind the top choice last time out, while JEN'S HOT won her only start with a low number but has plenty of room to improve. Closer Looks >>
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7 A three-time Group 1 winner in Argentina, WINNING PRIZE makes his U.S. debut for trainer Neil Drysdale as the class of the field. His works look good, his turf record is outstanding (five wins and a second from six starts). This is only a comeback prep race, but on paper he is the "best horse." CHIPS ALL IN chased a fast pace and tired to fourth while starting for the first time in three months. The fractions should be softer this time around, and with a comeback under his belt he has a chance to steal it even if he might be better around one turn. BOAT TRIP finished with run in a good sprint comeback. He has a history of improving second start back and he can stay a mile. IVANHO looked good defeating Dreamcatcher (race 3 favorite). The in-form gelding will roll late. Closer Looks >>
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8 ROUSSEAU disappointed in his debut, sixth by a long ways after being hammered to 3-2 favoritism. But maidens trained by Mike Mitchell typically improve; the past five years Mitchell is 30-for-94 with second-start maidens including $15.20 Dolphin Street last week. The point is, ROUSSEAU should improve if she draws in. TOOKMEBYSURPRISE has speed, two in-the-money finished under her belt, and will be a factor from gate to wire. ASCRIPTION adds blinkers after a modest debut; first-time starter JADE AND SAUCI looms the upsetter facing a seemingly modes group of maidens. Closer Looks >>
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