08/16/2013 12:49PM

Del Mar: Brad Free's Analysis August 17, 2013

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Brad Free's Analysis [BEST BET: Hard Buns (3rd race)]

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1 It might be too soon to call INDYGO F M A "career maiden" after only six starts, but she is starting to look that way. Runner-up three straight special-weights long on turf, she returns at the same level as the logical choice first start back from a two-month freshener for John Sadler and Rafael Bejarano. GINGER TAP won't be a maiden much longer. She followed a good sprint debut with a better effort second out long on turf. She finished third of 12, and acts like she will benefit from the added distance (mile and eighth). LEGACY is a lightly raced stablemate of the top choice. She missed by only a length her first and only turf route. Closer Looks >>
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2 CAL GAL appears to be one of the most probable winners on the card, on paper. The 2-years-old filly pressed a fast pace in her debut and finished a creditable third. Since then she has two apparently good works for Doug O'Neill. She should be long gone, unless lurking longshot SINGLEINTHELAST upsets. 'SINGLE worked well prior to her debut, but lacked speed and raced mostly at the rear. Eric Kruljac maidens historically move forward second out, which should be the case with blinkers on. Could be a price play to upset the favorite. MEINERTZHAGENI has the top figure in the race, a 68 Beyer that ranks high in this low-figure crop of California 2-year-olds. If she improves second time out, look out. Closer Looks >>
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3 HARD BUNS figures to win this $16k claiming race, non-winners of two, based on her maiden-claiming romp four weeks ago. While she benefitted from an apparent speed bias, she also has back races that were just as good. Claimed by Vann Belvoir for $20k, the improving filly returns with same rider, Rafael Bejarano. N2L races are often won by last-out maiden winners or droppers.CHESTNUT MOON is at the bottom for the first time. Only 1 for 16, it's kind of now-or-never mode for a filly that ran races last fall that would pummel these. WARREN'S LORIE S. lost twice at this level already, but might be a good longshot key for the bottom of the trifecta. She is a clunk-up type. Closer Looks >>
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4 TEST RIDE is a 2-year-old colt by Zensational that is training like a nice one for Mike Pender and owner B.J. Wright. His works are sharp and crisp, and is bred to win early. First-crop sire Zensational is off to a good start at stud. From the inside post, jockey Edwin Maldonado will have to go. And he could be gone. CAN THE MAN probably will start favored off a workout pattern that says he is "live" for Bob Baffert. A bullet gate work was followed by another fast five furlongs a few days ago. CONFISION is a first-timer by E Dubai, once a top debut sire. Workouts are steady for trainer Mike Mitchell. CANDY BOY is a Candy Ride first-timer out of the good California-bred stakes mare She's an Eleven. MAXIMINUS is bred for speed, and making his debut for Jeff Bonde. Closer Looks >>
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5 What a pro ROCK ME BABY is turning out to be. Four wins, four seconds from nine starts and a runner-up finish last out in a good California-bred stakes race. Previously he missed by only a head at this N2X level. Versatile, game, always fires. A racehorse. KID EDWARD is third start back from a layoff and dropping from open allowance. He was a good horse on this course three summers ago. Now 6, we'll see if he fits at the N2X. Have to believe the answer is yes. HOLLADAY ROAD should fire better here, dropping in class with a race under his belt. He Is a good, old pro (8yo). GAB POWER will finish; he always does. Closer Looks >>
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6 MY SECRET AFFAIR has a bunch of fast works for trainer Mark Glatt, who lures top rider Rafael Bejarano from other stables. Back-to-back bullet works suggest the Broken Vow colt is set to fire. HI FASHIONED has something the top choice lacks. That is, racing experience. A good runner-up debut earned a respectable 69 Beyer. Logical contender, no knocks. NEW YEAR'S DAY is a Bob Baffert first-timer with sharp works. HOOSIER DADA might be better than the average-looking workouts. It's about time for trainer Peter Miller to pop with a Del Mar first-timer. LITTLE SHACK has a race under his belt and adds blinkers. Likelty to improve. Closer Looks >>
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7 JUSTA RUNNER appears the speed of the field in this N1X sprint. Up in class off a big maiden win, the lightly raced 3yo might wire the field in his third career start. GERMANY BAY earned a 97 Beyer while finishing more than three lengths clear of third in this same race three weeks ago. No reason he won't fire again. That big figure probably would be good enough to win this first-level allowance. CARBONITE has not hit the board in three starts at DMR, but the old pro still has ability and that was a fast race he exits. MARCHMAN is moving forward and now has a good race over the track. Closer Looks >>
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8 The G1 Del Mar Oaks might be won by Saratoga shipper KITTEN'S DUMPLINGS. Her G2 last out was her third straight, and though the quality she beat is possibly unproven, she does win races. The quality in California is dubious, also. Euro shipperPEARLSIDE is interesting, first start in the U.S. with respectable Group form at top racecourses in France. Runner-up last out in a G3, she has two works over the local turf course for trainer Darrell Vienna, and you can bet it is a "go" first out. Good chance at a price; the influx of imports from Europe has increased. That is good. WISHING GATE powered to a sharp score here last month in the G2 San Clemente, winning with a perfect trip under Gary Stevens. She faces tougher here, but might be this good. Stevens is at Arlington to ride Indy Point and Marketing Mix (Arlington Million, Beverly D); Garrett Gomez takes over 'GATE. IGHRAA would be an interesting longshot if she drew in, based on the "stranger" angle. Closer Looks >>
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9 MY LUCKY ROSE did not have a fair shot in her debut, off slowly and never involved as the tepid favorite. Looks like she has worked well since, and the second-time starter should improve while breaking from an outside post. HEAVEN AND EARTH is a Jerry Hollendorfer trained 2-year-oold by Ministers Wild Cast. Works are good, and Hollendorfer is winning races with 2-year-olds.TOO OBVIOUS is a Desert Code firster working well for Jeff Bonde. Closer Looks >>
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10 The lightly raced 3-year-old filly WARREN'S VENEDA is improving with racing. Her third-place finish in the seven-furlong Fleet Treat Stakes was good, and these first-level state-bred allowance fillies are easier. Two turns is fine for 'VENEDA. Good play, middle odds. BRANDING will be making her third start back from a short break, and second of the meet. Her runner-up finish last out was not bad. STAR VESTA is a claiming-caliber four-time winner, up to statebred N1X off a romping win at the $12.5k claiming level (entered not to be claimed). She win races (4). Closer Looks >>
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