08/14/2013 1:39PM

Del Mar: Brad Free's Analysis August 15, 2013

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Brad Free's Analysis [BEST BET: Pleasant Miss (2nd race)]

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1 Based on his romping dirt-surface win at Sacramento, JEDI MIND TRICK is the horse to beat in this starter allowance for 2-year-olds. He was sold privately after his win, and runs now for trainer John Sadler. He can win if he reproduces his dirt form on Polytrack, but of course, that does not always happen. ECHO ZULU ships to DMR after three good efforts at GG and PLN. Runner-up last out a minor stakes, he adds blinkers and makes his first start for trainer Peter Miller. SNOWMASS VILLAGE won his debut by five lengths over a dull field. But the race earned a respectable number; he certainly is eligible to improve. Closer Looks >>
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2 This starter allowance for 2yos is the filly version of race 1. The main difference is this race includes an apparent standout.PLEASANT MISS dominated in her debut, then was sold privately and transferred to Jerry Hollendorfer, and proceeded to finish in the money in back-to-back stakes. Now she drops in class, is proven on synthetic, and is quicker than her main rival. That isANALEMMA, claimed by Bob Baffert off a highly rated (71 Beyer) debut victory early this meet. The knock on the filly's win is she did it setting slow fractions. The pace will be quicker this time, and we'll find out how good she is. ONE MORE WILD RIDE is a new shooter from Calder, making her California debut for trainer Kristin Mulhall. 'RIDE drops in class after a good third in a $91k stakes. Closer Looks >>
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3 LUCKY STUDENT ran a winning race July 26. It was her first start at DMR and first in a maiden-40. She set a fast pace, held second, and can be long gone if she runs two alike. The drawback is she is a maiden making her 10th start. First-time starter SIDEBAR makes her debut for trainer Bill Spawr, who has won with three of his last 10 first-timers. Sired by Closing Argument, SIDEBAR is the first foal from a dam (True Intentions) that won her debut by six lengths. WISHCRAFT drops from special-weight to maiden-40, while PEARL DE VERE broke slowly and finished a better-than-looked third in her comeback She can improve. VISIONS OF CANDY scratched from a maiden-20 on Wednesday to run instead in this maiden-40. She will roll late. Closer Looks >>
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4 SERIOUS drops from N1X into a $16k claiming sprint, non-winners of two. These restricted claiming races generally are won by either steep droppers or recent maiden winners. With a comeback prep under her belt and a potential pace edge, SERIOUS might be gone out front. VINDICTED RULER is a last-out maiden winner moving up to face N2L claimers. That can be a winning angle. In the money all four starts, 'RULER was claimed by Bill Morey from her $12.5k maiden-claiming win. She picks up leading rider Rafael Bejarano. PENNIES FROM DENNY has been stuck at this level for a long time. Now 1-for-15, her most recent start on this track was the best of her career. Closer Looks >>
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5 Front-runner HOPE 'N PRAY adds blinkers, drops from state-bred special weight to state-bred maiden-50, and looks like the one to catch. APACHE AMBUSH finished a respectable second in his debut; Eric Kruljac-trained maidens typically improve with racing.ITALIAN MIRAGE ran better than the line looks in his debut. He stood flat-footed when the gates opened, spotted his rivals many lengths, and then finished with run to split the field. With a clean break second time out, he should be right there. Closer Looks >>
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6 In a difficult N2L $16k claimer, JAY'S FIRETRUCK might be the right horse. His fifth-place finish last out was not as bad as it looks. He lost ground rallying wide on the far turn and flattened out in his first start in more than six weeks. His previous starts include four straight in-the-money finishes vs. similar. AFFLICATION dropped to maiden-20 and scored a convincing win first time on Polytrack.LITE THAT BABY UP missed by a head in a promising comeback. He could go favored based on that effort. This is not a good race. Closer Looks >>
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7 Also-eligible LIME RICKEY drops from a respectable fifth-place finish in the G2 Whittingham, into a N1X/optional $40k claimer. The veteran's three previous starts on the DMR turf produced a win and two seconds. VIBRATO JAZZ has been stuck at this first allowance condition for six straight races, finishing in the money four times. He will roll late. One of these days might get there.NOBILIS, a filly, adds blinkers and switches to apprentice rider Irving Orozco. She is well-suited by the mile and three-eighths distance. Also-eligible LUMBERYARD JACK missed by a neck last time vs. similar. Closer Looks >>
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8 Runner-up by a half-length in his debut three months ago vs. special-weight maidens, STORMIN LUTE drops immediately to maiden-20 for his second. Not a pattern that inspires confidence, but a likely winner if he runs anything close to his debut. DI CONTI also drops from special-weight. He has speed and will keep the top choice honest. HARD PLAY adds blinkers after failing to produce speed in his recent comeback. This card is one of the least attractive of the meet. Closer Looks >>
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