08/13/2013 3:52PM

Del Mar: Brad Free's Analysis August 14, 2013

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Brad Free's Analysis [BEST BET: Tiz a Kiss (5th race)]

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1 MANEWAL ran well last month, runner-up in a similar 3yo race from which he was claimed by John Sadler. The past five DMR summers, Sadler is 15-for-39 first off the claim. Already fastest in the field on speed figures, MANEWAL is likely to be favored. LUZ ATTICUS adds blinkers after a wide-trip third, finishing less than a length behind the top pick. It was the first in two months for 'ATTICUS, who can improve with a race under his belt. Meanwhile, BUBBA FIZZ makes his third start in a month. Neither recent start was particularly good, but this trainer-jockey combo is too effective to ignore. The past year, Adam Kitchingham and Edwin Maldonado are 18-for-46, a 39 percent win rate that produced a $3.87 return on investment for each $2 win bet. JETS TO BRAZIL takes a big class drop and gets in light. Closer Looks >>
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2 A sharp runner-up comeback by TANGERINE TICKLE was validated when the filly that beat her by a nose (Glorious Luck) returned to win an open N1X with an 86 Beyer. 'TICKLE continues to work well, and should fire right back vs. first-level state-bred allowance foes. There is one knock, however. Turf sprints this summer have been dominated by front-runners/pressers; 'TICKLE is not quick and must win rallying from behind. The rails will be moved to a zero setting for this card. ATTA GIRL ALMA finished one-two all five turf sprints, including three straight runner-up finishes at this level (state-bred N1X). Front-runner PROMISCUOUSSUANCESwheels back six days after setting a fast pace and finishing third. She undoubtedly is the one to catch. Closer Looks >>
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3 The pick six ($255,708 carryover) begins and ends with a maiden-20 for fillies and mares. The first leg of the pick six is a split of race 8. First-timer SPRITZY debuts at age 4 with a decent enough work pattern for trainer Vann Belvoir. The presence of leading rider Rafael Bejarano indicates the Honour and Glory filly is "live" first time out. She is a sibling to veteran claiming horse El Adelante.VISIONS OF CANDY returns from a two and one-half month layoff while dropping to the bottom for the third start of her career. She showed no speed either start, but will roll late. CALAMEERA finished an okay second in her comeback last month. She since posted a bullet workout over this racetrack and makes her second start back. SCARY FAST missed by a neck lat time; the runner-up Beautiful Spirit returned to win. SECRET MEMO figures as a fringe contender. First-time starter LAKOTA ROAD is a sibling to winner Tiz the Route, out of G3 winner Short Route. Closer Looks >>
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4 In a competitive route for $10k claiming fillies and mares, Golden Gate shipper PAWN SHOP gets the nod. Claimed from a third-place finish in a $12.5k route, the closing filly makes her first start for Genaro Vallejo, with leading rider Bejarano. BONITA STAR finished more than six lengths clear of third last month in her first start on the DMR main track. She drops one level and is a logical contender. ROMANTIC WISH will be among the favorites, despite a dubious pattern. Claimed two starts back for $25k, she misfired first start for Bill Spawr and now takes a precipitous class drop to $10k. Not a confident move, but the mare obviously is good enough if she fires. KATY'S KITTY is rounding back into form; she missed by less than a length last out vs. slightly easier. LINDZ WINZ stretches from a sprint to a route and is expected to set the pace. Closer Looks >>
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5 Though TIZ A KISS has only one comeback sprint under her belt, she looks ready to stretch out and win. She trained well into her comeback three weeks ago, and produced a steady, grinding finish as if she was crying for two turns. She certainly is bred for a route. Sired by Cee's Tizzy, she was produced by DMR turf-route stakes winner Candy Factory. 'KISS has two solid works since her third-place comeback; one mile should be ideal. PATRIOT C H was not disgraced her first around two turns. She set a strong pace in that turf route, led to inside the eighth pole, and tired to sixth. It was a good second start for the lightly raced filly that is a sibling to graded stakes winner/sire Lucky J.H. KELDY finished a respectable third last out in her first route, while DOW DIVA seems not fast enough, but her trainer recently got hot. Doug O'Neill won seven races last week. SIDEPOCKET RUN might be ranked too low. Although she is an eight-start maiden, her speed figures say she is a main contender. She will roll late. Closer Looks >>
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6 UNBRIDLED GIANT drops into a claiming race ($25k, non-winners of two) for the first time. He has the top figures in the field (albeit on turf), and on paper is simply the fastest horse. The knock is first-time claim tag typically produces underlay odds. IN A WINE TIZZY looked good winning a maiden-20 two weeks ago, first off the claim by Dan Hendricks. Wheeled back in sharp form, he might be good enough to knock off winners. UNUSUAL LOVER has the same pattern as the top choice. That is, first-time tag. He will roll late, which is how most main-track route races lately have been won. LONDINIUM is speed, which has not been the winning profile lately in two-turn races on Polytrack. LICO looms the upsetter. He drops in for a tag and stretches to a mile with back speed figures among the tops in the field. Closer Looks >>
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7 Speedster DISTINCTIV PASSION will try to wire the field in this good turf sprint stakes. He set a fast pace last time and led gate to wire. It is the same scenario here, facing three of the same rivals. The turf rails were down when 'PASSION led gate to wire; same rails-down configuration here. BOAT TRIP is the late threat. He is 3-for-4 in turf sprints, and beat a top horse last time (since-retired G1 winner Kinsale King). Although none of the 10 turf sprints this summer have been won by closers, BOAT TRIP might be good enough to overcome the profile. He could get pace help from speedster WIREDFORTWOTWENTY, who will keep the top choice honest. An 8yo pro, 'TWENTY crushed $40k claimers by four lengths last time on Polytrack. His 1:09.04 clocking is the fastest six furlongs of summer (same as G1 winner Pointsoff the Bench.) 'TWENTY won a N1X turf sprint on this course back in 2008. CIRCA'SGOLDENGEAR may be ranked too low. His fourth-place comeback was better than it might appear. He broke slowly, weaved through traffic, and finished with run while starting for the first time in five months. With a clean takeoff and a race under his belt, he could upset. SIROCCO STRIKE should get a ground-saving trip tucked just off the speed. Closer Looks >>
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8 This maiden-20 for fillies and mares is a split of race 3. IRISH WINNIE might be a bust; she finished last in her debut three weeks ago. But she drops from maiden-40 to maiden-20, might be quick enough to make the lead, and could possibly be gone on the drop. Or, she might fade again. If so, 12-start maiden JANES SHIP could upset. She returns from Ruidoso Downs for trainer Henry Dominguez, and meets an ordinary field. She has four straight in-the-money finishes in the Southwest that stamp her as a contender.FRANNIE'SSPIRITTOO will grind late, while first-time starter RECLUSIVE makes her debut for trainer Eric Kruljac. Generally speaking, his maidens do better second time out, but Kruljac posted upsets this year with three first-time starters ($33 Blingismything on May 4; $43.40 Lets Get Frisky on Feb. 21; and $50.60 Tiz Molly on Jan. 20). DOLPHIN SHORTS drops in class after a troubled eighth-place debut. Closer Looks >>
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