08/02/2016 2:38PM

Del Mar Analysis for Wednesday, August 3


Due to a technical error, the incorrect day's Del Mar analysis was published in Wednesday's print edition of DRF. Below is the correct analysis for Wednesday's Del Mar card.

BEST BET: Green With Eddie (7th race)

First Race

1. Heat Me 2. Flexible Ethics 3. Radiant Journey

The leading contenders in this filly-mare claiming race are taking dubious class drops.Therefore, the call is a sharp filly from Northern California making her first start since being claimed for $8k by Jedd Josephson. HEAT ME has won 2 of 3 on dirt, and is drawn outside in a field with plenty of pace. The challenge is this racetrack has not been particularly kind to her closing style, particularly at this five and one-half furlong distance. Still think she can rally for the win against possibly vulnerable front-running droppers FLEXIBLE ETHICS and RADIANT JOURNEY. The recent form of 'ETHICS is good, in the money her last five starts including three wins and with a front-running style that matches the track profile. The knock is she has been competitive against better company than these $12.5k claiming fillies and mares, yet drops in class. It seems odd. A similar comment applies to RADIANT JOURNEY, claimed for $20k last out and dropping first off the claim.

Second Race

1. Vale Dori 2. Gloryzapper 3. Autumn Flower

VALE DORI, Group 1 winner in South America, makes her U.S. debut for trainer Bob Baffert with a string of sharp recent works. She scratched from her scheduled U.S. debut on July 3 with a minor setback, but worked six furlongs from the gate a week later, followed by two bullet works at Del Mar. Arguably the "class" of the field, she seems ready to fire first start back. GLORYZAPPER, first or second all five starts, finished a creditable second last out in a minor stakes. Two previous starts at this N2X level produced runner-up finishes. Gradually improving, versatile style, she enters as an obvious contender. AUTUMN FLOWER has a history of outrunning her odds. She will rally from the back. MINSTER'SADVENTURE is not "fast" according to the figures, but she wins more than her share, 4 of her last 8 while gradually moving up the ladder.

Third Race

1. Huevos Rancheros 2. Forever Us 3. Declassified

This maiden-32 for 2yos is a tough way to begin the pick six. HUEVOS RANCHEROS might be qualified to upset. He was completely overmatched in his special-weight debut in the most productive 2yo race of the season; he finished last. But he seems to have worked well since, drops in class and picks up Flavien Prat. Likely improvement second time out much facing easier foes. FOREVER US pressed a slow pace and finished fourth in a rather modest debut. But second-start maidens always are eligible to improve, and the rider switch to Rafael Bejarano is key. DECLASSIFIED drops for his second start after finishing last in his debut. ZEN DEPUTY might be ranked too low by this handicapper. He showed speed and hit the board both starts. ICEBERG SLIM is another special-weight dropper. This race is a puzzle.

Fourth Race

1. Cougar Creek 2. Stormy Endeavor 3. My Heart Is Yours

The last-place debut by COUGAR CREEK was not as bad as it looks; she can score an upset second time out dropping in class and adding blinkers. In her debut, she was bumped on both sides at the break, got sandwiched between horses while chasing the pace, and then was done at the quarter pole. That was opening day of the meet. Now three weeks later, with a good half-mile work since raced, she should move forward. STORMY ENDEAVOR finished fourth last out in a Cal-bred special-weight won by next-out stakes winner You're Late. 'ENDEAVOR has enough speed to establish position from the rail. First-time starter MY HEART IS YOURS is a sibling to five modest winners; she has a productive trainer-jockey combo in her corner. Also-eligible MISS BULA BULA is a new face in a modest race. Her trainer can fire with first-time starters.

Fifth Race

1. Rangi 2. Schillairess 3. Gutsy Ruler

Also-eligible RANGI is fast enough to press the pace two-wide, if he draws in. Runner-up twice this spring going six and one-half furlongs on turf at Santa Anita, he would appreciate the cutback to five furlongs on the Del Mar course. He led at the eighth pole two recent starts, but tired late. Shorter distance here, and speed has dominated turf sprints this summer. SCHILLAIRESS won both dirt starts by daylight, but was unplaced his only start on turf. That was at Santa Anita; he may appreciate the firmer Del Mar course, and from post 2 is likely to set the pace inside. He could be gone as the probable favorite. GUTSY RULER has always been best on the main track. But his recent form is decent, and this N1X field is only modest. SECRETO PRIMERO might be ranked too low. He won both turf starts this spring at Santa Anita, then was overmatched in a N1X dirt route. Good fit here, from slightly off the pace.

Sixth Race

1. Ain't Misbehavin 2. Accelerant 3. Storm Comin Thru

In a competitive Cal-bred N1X route, the call is last-out winner AIN'T MISBEHAVIN, who won this very class level last out while running for the tag. He returns at the same level without the tag, for trainer Gary Stute. Since last June, Stute is 4-for-9 first off the claim. Sharp horse in good form, he is the horse to beat from just off the pace. ACCELERANT won the first race of the summer meet, a $12.5k claiming race. He moves up in class in sharp form, with speed for a front-running or pace-pressing trip. STORM COMIN THRU drops from open N1X into a Cal-bred N1X. He won this class level in January, so he runs for the $20k tag.

Seventh Race

1. Green With Eddie 2. California Diamond 3. Milton Freewater

GREEN WITH EDDIE finished second to CALIFORNIA DIAMOND in a Santa Anita stakes last out, but a change in post position should change the order of finish in this stakes for California-bred 2-year-olds. 'EDDIE broke from an inside post last time, was hounded through fast fractions, shook off his pace rival and only got worn down in deep stretch by the perfect-trip winner. It was a big runner-up finish by 'EDDIE, who moves to the outside post where he will not need to be rushed. With a pressing trip in the clear, he can even the score with CALIFORNIA DIAMOND. That is, unless the latter is simply a better horse. Trouble is, 'DIAMOND moves from the outside to an inside post and does not figure for the same in-the-clear trip as last time. Still, one cannot knock the two-for-two colt, purchased for $125k following his stakes win. From where he is drawn, he must "go." MILTON FREEWATER returns from a layoff after sore shins interrupted his campaign following his debut victory in April. He was purchased for $250k following that win, and showed in his debut he is effective rallying from behind. Look for him late.

Eighth Race

1. Silent Movies 2. My Golden One 3. Magik Pepper

SILENT MOVIES is the tepid choice in a messy maiden-62.5k turf route. He has run well against better company, and actually "won" in January before being disqualified. He returns from a short layoff as a first-time gelding for trainer John Sadler, who is having a terrific summer meet. 'MOVIES has been a front-runner most recent starts however, and that has not been the winning profile this summer on this course. MY GOLDEN ONE ran the best race of his career last out, although his closing "rally" was partly the function of a collapsing pace. He drops for the first time into a maiden-claiming race, retains Rafael Bejarano, and will roll late. This course suits his style, although the temporary rails are at the outermost 30-foot setting. MAGIK PEPPER may have been in for a prep race three weeks ago when he finished next-to-last in a dirt sprint. He is down in class, out to two turns and moving to turf. Improvement is likely. SAINT IGNATISU goes first off the claim by Phil D'Amato, shipping from Kentucky. Also-eligible BLUE NAVY BLUE is likely to set the pace if he starts, first time around two turns.