12/05/2013 2:06PM

Dave Tuley: Florida State becomes odds-on favorite


It doesn’t take much to flip a future book upside down.

One game. Heck, one second, when you look at the second that was put back on the clock at the end of regulation of the Iron Bowl between Alabama and Auburn which allowed the No. 1 Crimson Tide a final field goal attempt. They missed the field goal and it was famously returned the other way for an Auburn 34-28 upset victory as a 10 1/2-point home underdog and +340 on the money line.

When I last wrote about the BCS title game futures two weeks ago, Alabama was the odds-on favorite at 4-5 with Florida State at 8-5, and Baylor was challenging Ohio State for the third spot before it lost to Oklahoma State.

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Now, with Alabama being upset, the LVH SuperBook made Florida State the 1-3 favorite with No. 2 Ohio State at 7-2, Auburn at 5-1, Missouri at 12-1, and Alabama at 60-1. There was some added doubt this week with the sexual-assault allegations against Seminole QB Jameis Winston, but the state’s attorney announced Thursday that charges would not be filed (talk about one thing that could have turned the future book upside down).

Saturday could go a long way toward deciding who plays for the last BCS title as we go to a four-game playoff next year (wouldn’t that be great this season?). Florida State is a 28 1/2-point favorite over Duke in the ACC title game, and as of Thursday morning I hadn’t seen a book offer a straight-up money line price, mostly due to the uncertainty over Winston. The other two games with national title implications are much more competitively priced. Ohio State is a 5 1/2-point favorite over Michigan State in the Big 10 title game while Auburn is just a 2-point fave over Missouri.

Back to the betting board

Last week, I lost on Saturday with Clemson +5 in a back-and-forth battle with South Carolina, which pulled away late to win, 31-17. But I won on Sunday with the Texans +7 1/2 as they nearly upset the Patriots before falling 34-31. Here are this weekend’s spot plays:

Missouri +2 vs. Auburn

We keep hearing that Auburn is a team of destiny, and it’s easy to buy the hype with its miracle wins in its last two games. However, if you take a closer look at both of these teams’ games, Missouri has been more dominant in its victories, especially against common opponents Georgia, Mississippi, and Texas A&M. Both teams creamed Tennessee with Auburn winning by a few more points but Missouri outgaining the Vols by more and holding them to three points. Of course, I understand that Auburn beating Alabama trumps a lot of that, but I still think the wrong team is favored. Both teams are 11-1 ATS, but Missouri’s only loss was in double OT against South Carolina without starting QB James Franklin. Auburn is on a roll, but Missouri is playing its best, too. If Auburn sits around waiting for another miracle play, it will get run off the field.

PLAY: Missouri for 1 unit.

Titans +12 1/2 vs. Broncos

The Titans, though they have slipped in the wild-card race, have shown they can play with anyone. The Colts are one of two teams to beat the Broncos this year, and the Tennessee should have beat the Colts last week. (I was on the Titans and still don’t see how they didn’t at least cover.) Plus, the Titans went into Seattle and covered a similar spread in a 20-13 loss. If they can do that in Seattle, they can do it in Denver. The Broncos are riding high after their sweep of the Chiefs to all but have home-field advantage locked up in the AFC playoffs. Their goal is to keep winning, so they will be quite content with a 7- or 10-point victory – and I would be quite content with that as well.

PLAY: Titans for 1 unit.

NCAA record: 7-6 for net profit of 0.4 units (based on risking 1.1 to win 1). NFL record: 9-12 for a net loss of 4.2 units.