07/31/2013 11:31AM

Closer Looks: Saratoga July 31, 2013

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Race 1

Charlie's Quest
Gelding drops in for a conditioned tag after being given time off his beaten chalk effort 3 1/2 months ago at Aqueduct; he'll switch back to another solid pilot for this one and though he's done most of his damage at one turn he has won at 2 turns in the past; pace is a concern as there's not a lot of that in here so he'll need to be hustled some from the bell; consider.
 
Ea
First part of the coupling also enters this fresh and returns to a venue at which he's run big in each of his 3 starts; he's another who hasn't showed much early foot of late, but he'll also be facing a much softer bunch in this spot for a barn that likes to win races and a top pilot gets aboard; contender.
 
Matt and Jesse
Tries better after grabbing a small share at one turn in his Belmont finale; his last score did come at 2 turns, but that was back during the inner track meeting and it's been a while since he's run a number that puts him anywhere near the better ones in this spot; have to side with others.
 
Sovereign Default
Five year old was in against light years better than he'll face here when tiring from his early pace efforts at Belmont last time; he enters this fresh and catches a field that contains no early lick; hustling ride puts him in control of this one from the bell and he could prove tough to reel in from there.
 
Sinorice
Local winner drops for his return from the freshening off a try in which he failed to get close to the guy drawn to his inside in here; maybe he likes the return to 2 turn racing today and he did earn a competitive number at ths trip and level here last summer; nice to see a top pilot stick with him in his return.
 
Kings Village
Cuts back off a marathon try against cheap claimers in Penn National slop; gelding may have a little more to offer late, but these are better than he faced in his last couple of starts and he hasn't run very competitive numbers; barn is winless on the year; passing on this longshot.
 
Jet Set Cat
Hasn't been the same since dumping his pilot and being taken by this outfit over 5 months ago; maybe the return to dirt and the stretchout to 2 turns help move this colt forward, but he's got a lot to prove off what he'd been doing prior to the freshening; have to pass on him.
 
Irish Lion
Other half of the entry also has Castellano named so only one will meet the starter; it's been a while since he's been in for a tag so maybe he finds these easier and he's another who was better 2 turning on the inner back in the winter; barn's recent numbers on the surface switch are excellent.

Race 2

Royal Rica
Sire Disco Rico gets about 10% debut winners, according to DRF sire stats; sire won 9 of 17 for $532K, was multiiple G3 SW, G2/G3 SP; dam has 5 winners from 6 foals to race including Practical Stan (7 wins, $202K); dam won 5 of 18 for $118K, was SW and SP; been working along nicely for this, but Schosberg's runners tend to do better after a race (0 for last 16 first time out).
 
Hot Stones
Debut was very smart - chased the pace and kept to her task gamely to be a good 2nd, finishing well clear of 3rd; that was May 26 and she hasn't run since but she has worked well in the interim and Rosario stays; Levine also a nice 17% 2nd time out and this type of layoff has worked well for him (21%); lone sib is Hurricane Caroline (1 win, $24K).
 
Carla Sweetrevenge
Something of an in-and-outer so far; she's run some good races (just missed when 2nd a neck at BEL June 12) but then she came back July 5 there as the favorite, dueled and gave way; speed to be in it from the start, though she's also shown she can pass horses; still, tough to know which gal you'll get, but Lezcano takes the call and he was up for her best effort, that aforementioned June 12 run; lone sib to race is Emma's Secret (3 wins, $46K).
 
Gloria Victoria
Smart debut at BEL July 5 (ran 2nd) stamps her the one to beat, even if her Beyer (69) was outdone by Hot Stones (74); worked very smartly since and Pletcher has come back to this meet firing; ample tactical speed to be in a good spot from the start; that debut 2nd looks better, too, when you note she finished 4 1/4 clear of 3rd; kin to 4 winners including Comedero (11 wins, $675K, multiple SW, SP).
 
Run to Mama
First 2 outings weren't very pretty but hey, those were just her first 2 outings and you can always be forgiving about that; note, too, both came on turf and maybe this surface will be more to her liking; somebody saw something they liked - after all, she did take some money in both starts (8-1 in each); lone sib has finished off the board in 7 starts.
 
Kimmie's Girl
Sire Here's Zealous gets over 12% debut winners; sire won 10 of 31 for $456K, was G3 SW, G2/G3 SP; dam's only foal is this gal's full-bro Honor Ernesto (5-0-1-1, $5K); dam had 1 3rd in 3 starts for $1K; works don't hint at a lot of speed and no works after May 30 until July 10 gives cause for pause.
 
Rock N Cozy
Had plenty of chances (14) but before getting too down on her for that note pleny of good efforts, too (5 2nds); that being said, the pattern coming into this is worrisome; after a nice 3rd on AQU's inner Feb. 1 she was gone 2 months, came back dull on AQU's big track April 7 and now has been gone nearly another 4 months; at least there's no drop but you have to wonder if her best chances have come and gone, at least at this level.

Race 3

Winning Scoop
Ran very well in on off-the-turf race last year in the slop, and the fact that Mott was so keen to try her early on the grass is an encouraging signal as to whether she will take to the grass; dam was a G3 winner on dirt but unplaced in one turf start; related to one turf winner - Extraordinary, by Giant's Causeway; Bernardini surprisingly gets just 3% winners with first-time turfers.
 
Too Good to B True
Moved up on grass last out at Calder, but the competition there obviously doesn't compare to Saratoga; so she is going to have to show continued improvement to defeat these.
 
Caxambas Pass
Dirt experiment didn't work; so it's back to the grass for her; she ran a fine third two back at Belmont and also ran respectably behind the now graded placed Praia when fifth in her debut at Kee; lovely pedigree, being a half to G1 winners Pine Island and Point of Entry.
 
Neolexia
Much improved this year with two thirds from three starts with a sixth sandwiched in between those efforts; lack of early speed is a drawback because it puts her at the mercy of the pace; picks up Johnny V; contender.
 
Doctor Vickie Lynn
On the board in 4 of 6 starts, with the exceptions coming at Keeneland; was well beaten second at Ellis recently but McPeek was encouraged enough to bring her north to the Spa; twice third at CD at this distance; value choice.
 
Perfect Package
No excuse last time out; she spurted away to a clear lead and just didn't sustain it to the wire; perhaps the stretch out from 6f to 1 1/8m was too much, and with that race at the distance behind her, she will be ready for better; certainly bred to route; related to a couple graded winners, including one that did so racing overseas on grass.
 
Rare Penny
Exits a productive off-the-turf race in which two of the three returnees came back to win their next races - though all starters were at Ellis Park, where the competition is obviously easier; sire's offspring win their turf debuts at a 11% clip; dam was a multiple stakes winner on turf, and graded placed on it; half to Bern Legacy, a 2-year-old who won a 5.5f turf sprint earlier this month.

Race 4

Margaret Lilian
Local course winner coughed up a clear lead going a bit longer on the downstate lawn when making her first start of the year at this level and the top 2 finishers from that heat did return to score; filly was given some time off the try and she's been working her like she's again ready to flaunt her early foot from this inside slot; last few starts are tough to swallow on paper, but with a clean break she figures to make the lead and will have to be run down.
 
Thescreenisred
Gray was pretty good in her 2 starts here last summer and continued her solid run as racing moved back downstate; idle since the fall, she goes for a barn that excels with its returnees and their first call pilot does get aboard; steady drills and a couple of solid efforts off works suggest she'll return running and have a say in the outcome.
 
Lisini
Drew the fence in her first start of the year and didn't have much to offer late while finishing ahead of today's rail runner; she wasn't beaten all that much in her trip effort over the course last summer; her style keeps her within striking range of the pacesetters early and she handles footing with give in it as well; contender.
 
Rakin' Gold
Takes the next step up the ladder after wiring entry level statebreds through moderate splits over the Belmont lawn; filly did work ok over the sod up here last week and she proved in her maiden score that she doesn't need the lead to fire, but she's going to need to keep moving forward to have a shot at repeating.
 
Barrel of Joy
Wasn't beaten much going one turn at the level downstate in her first couple of starts this year and now she'll cut back after tiring while going long over a good course; she should get solid splits in front of her and she's another who have enough early foot to find a good spot from the bell; figures to offer some value as well.
 
Karakorum Elektra
Got the bob to save the chalkies at 3-5 when dropped in for a conditioned tag in her Belmont finale; 9 year old has won over the course and her 12 total sod scores are more than the rest of the field combined; maybe her last was the confidence builder she needed to move forward and she was right there with some of these 2 back at Belmont; barn excels with its newly claimed runners right back.
 
La Bella Valeria
Offered some speed in her initial turf spin at the level but came up with little for the drive; barn doesn't win many races and there's not much turf in this one's immediate pedigree so don't know that she's going to take a big step forward second time over the footing; prefer others.
 
Divadora
She's another who showed speed but not much else in her first try on the lawn; she was pretty good on the Belmont dirt in her first start since that turf debut last fall and got used in pace in her initial start at this level; she is kin to G3 SW, New York bred SW and 201K earner Ava K. as well as a surface winner, so maybe she's set to move forward with the regression behind her while switching surfaces; consider.
 
Golden Galaxy
MTO brings speed to the table in her first start off this sharp claiming outfit's buy; beaten chalk at the level is a .500 career hitter over a wet track and she figures to be able to clear this bunch early if the rains come; one to catch and beat if it gets moved to dirt.
 
Keep Bustin
Beaten chalk cuts back to the trip of her first out maiden score over the inner late last fall; expecting she'll have some bottom from those recent 8 panel efforts and she has the positional foot to stay within striking range of the pacesetter early; pedigree suggests she'll like it wet as well; MTO is a contender.
 
Lenders Way
MTO hit the board in each of her last 2 sprinting downstate at the level; most recent score did come over a wet track and maybe the shorter trip today helps, but another minor award appears to be here ceiling in this spot.
 
Bird House
MTO switches surfaces if the rains come and her most recent try on the dirt wasn't much; hasn't shown much early interest of late and that's not going to help her either at the trip or on the off going; have to pass on her here.

Race 5

Kelly's Prize
Sire 128-713 (18%) 2yos; winning dam (102K, 0-1 at 2, 5-21 sprint) with 2 winners/4 runners (0-1 2yos, 2-2 sprint); 2nd dam multiple G3 turf SP My Trip (France, 118K); barn 2-10 ($2.97 ROI) 2nd-time 2yos turf to dirt; 7/27 work match Radiant Cut (56 turf Beyer; 45 dirt); drop to statebred helps.
 
Honeychild
Sire 22-218 (10%) 2yo FTS; unraced dam has 2 winners from 2 runners (1-1 with 2yos, 2-2 with sprinters); dam 1/2 SP sprinter Splendido (Puerto Rico, 36K); barn 0-17 past 5 years 2yo FTS MSW dirt sprint Spa (0-2 NY-Breds).
 
Canal Six
Sire 1-62 (2%) 2yo FTS; unraced dam has 1 winner from 1 runner (0-1 with 2yos, 1-1 with sprinters); 2nd dam SW Prominent Feather (270K); barn 0-4 past 5 years all FTS.; 6/25 work went .01 slower than Stalagmite (8th FTS turf 21 Beyer MSW BEL 7/12); 7/4 work matches Stalagmite.
 
Kicken Livi
1/2 turf SW Symbol of Arch (Norway, 153K) by 12% 2yo FTS sire; unplaced dam has 2 winners/2 runners (1-1 2yos, 1-1 sprint); dam 1/2 G1 turf SW Kicken Kris (1.3M); barn 1-2 ($8.10 ROI) pst 5 yrs 2yo FTS NY-bred MSW dirt sprnt; 6 works match Liquid Lunch (65 Beyer, enter Mon. R3).
 
Lavender Road
95K 2yo after 1F work 10.2; 1/2 SP Roses for Romney (110K, 0-3 at 2, 0-1 sprint) by 3-27 (11%) 2yo FTS sire; SW dam (195K, 0-1 at 2, 0-1 sprint) with 3 winners from 4 runners (0-3 with 2yos, 2-3 sprinters); dam 1/2 multiple turf SP Elusive Rumour (125K); this is barn's 1st debut runner.
 
Molly Jordan
1/2 SP sprnt. Palmetto Bluffs (82K, 1-4 at 2) by 2-7 2yo FTS sire; SP dam (60K, 0-3 at 2, 1-8 sprint) with 5 wnrs/5 rnnrs (1-4 2yos, 3-5 sprint); dam 1/2 SW sprint Livermore Valley (330K); barn 1-11 pst 5 yrs 2yo FTS NY-bred MSW dirt spr. Spa; 7/12 work match Cool It (7th FTS 36 Beyer 7/21).
 
Old Harbor
1/2 multiple SP Shipwrecktreasure (254K, 1-5 at 2, 1-8 sprint) by (7%) 2yo sire; dam sprint winner (30K) with 3 winners/5 runners (1-4 2yos, 3-5 sprinters); 2nd dam SW sprinter Windswept Wings (197K); barn 0-10 pst 5 yrs 2nd-time 2yos dirt; rallied debut and now tackles NY-breds only.
 
Moves Your Soul
12K RNA wnlng, 9K yrlng by 10% 2yo FTS sire; 1st starter from unraced dam; dam 1/2 SP Dancing Blues (166K), SP The Name Was Gone (183K); barn 0-13 pst 5 yrs 2yo FTS NY-Bred MSW dirt sprints; 7/22 work matches Rolloncat (0 Beyer in lone start).

Race 6

Quick Casablanca (CHI)
His first start in America was a decent run and keep in mind that a multiple G1 winner finished first in that race; he looks like a very interesting option to consider in this spot and not going to be at all surprised if he improves over what he showed us in his US debut; a top turf barn and the presence of Rosario adds further appeal.
 
Hyper
Tough veteran almost always shows up and gives it everything he has, and even though he was beaten by a 50-1 shot in his latest start, he enters this race fresh off of a G2 stakes placing; he beat today's rival Quick Casablanca two starts back and Castellano has won with 30 of 98 mounts for this barn in 2013.
 
Side Road
He needs to bounce back from a sub par performance, but like the string of starts he put together between February and April, especially that runner-up finish to Dark Cove in the G2 Elkhorn two starts ago, as that rival has been in raging form in 2013; Ortiz is a go-to rider for this barn.
 
Address Unknown (GB)
He earned a G2 stakes placing and a 110 Racing Post Rating early in his career racing in Ireland, and he still seems capable of showing up with a solid performance on his best day; perhaps the presence of John V. can be viewed as being a positive indicator.
 
Star Channel
When evaluating the early pace scenario in this contest, this might not prove to be a bad spot for this runner to get to make his first start for a new barn after a 62.5k claim; he earned a stakes win over turf as a 3-year-old and he's been a consistent performer throughout his career; the horse he beat in his latest outing is a lightly raced Bill Mott-trained colt who has a chance to turn out to be a nice runner.
 
Alburj
He's shown the ability to handle marathon distances over turf but his only win since arriving in America was in a jump event, and he's going to need to find a way to step it up over his previous best performance if he's to threaten the top contenders.
 
Sandyinthesun
He's had plenty of chances to show us what he's all about and he's never run a race that is anywhere near strong enough to suggest that he can get over on this field on his best day; strictly an outsider.
 
Royal Bench (IRE)
He did some nice work racing overseas early on in his career at shorter distances, including a G2 score in France and a second place finish in the G1 Hong Kong Mile; it would have been nice to have seen him a show a little more in his first two starts in America, but it's a little interesting to see Napravnik take the call.
 
Dannhauser
Like the idea of him getting another chance in a turf marathon when seeing what he did just three starts back in winning a stakes at Laurel against 13 rivals; he's won five of nine while winning every other start since moving into this barn, and feel that he has at least mild appeal in this spot.
 
Harrods Creek
Can't ignore what he did in this event in 2012 with Alvarado aboard, and if he can reproduce that level of performance against these, he'll make a serious bid at defending his title; Alvarado and he's won with 21 of 73 (29%) mounts for this barn in 2013.
 
Percussion
Of the horses in the main body of this race, Side Road, Dannhauser and Harrods Creek are the only ones to have shown some dirt ability; if this race has to be moved to the main track, it will be an ideal spot for this stakes winner to land in.

Race 7

Quilt
Full SP sprinter Bind (108K), 1/2 G3 SP router Hakama (176K, 1-3 at 2, 0-2 sprint) by 12% 2yo FTS sire; unraced dam has 3 winners/4 runners (1-1 with 2yos, 2-4 sprinters); dam 1/2 G3 SW Watch (610K); barn 0-42 pst 5 yrs 2yo FTS MSW dirt sprint Spa; nice pedigree, but barn better 2nd-out.
 
Prove It All Night
Sire 12% 2yo FTS sire; unraced dam has 1 winner/2 runners (1-2 sprinters); 2nd dam multiple SP Kimme a Star (173K); barn 12%, $2.01 ROI pst 5 yrs 2yo FTS MSW dirt sprint; 6/30 work went .01 slower than Queen of Mambo (79 Beyer turf, 64 dirt); interesting
 
Dancing House
Sire 31-250 (12%) 2yo FTS; dam multiple G1 SW (1.7M, 1-3 at 2, 1-4 sprint) with 3 winners from 4 runners (1-3 with 2yos, FTS winner, 1-3 sprints); dam 1/2 G3 SW Forest Grove (281K); barn 9-49 (18%) past 5 years 2yo FTS MSW dirt sprint Spa.
 
Magsamelia
40K yrlng, 49K yrlng, 130K 2yo after 1F work in 10.0; sire 9-144 (6%) 2yo FTS; dam 2yo FTS sprint winner (28K) with 2 winners from 2 runners (1-1 with 2yos, 2-2 with sprinters); dam 1/2 2yo SP sprinter Galiano (19K); barn 1-31 (3%, $1.14 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS MSW dirt sprint Spa.
 
Reversiontothemean
35K yearling by 4-46 (9%) 2yo FTS sire; 1st starter from SP sprinter (136K, 1-2 at 2, FTS winner); 3rd dam G2 SW Igotrhythm (416K); barn 3-17 (18%, $3.54 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS MSW dirt sprint Spa.
 
Ocean Boulevard
Sire 15% 2yos; SW dam (184K, 0-3 at 2, 2-5 sprints) has 1 winner from 2 runners (1-2 with 2yos, 1-2 sprinters); dam 1/2 G3 route SW Susan's Angel (350K); barn 0-16 past 5 years 2nd-time 2yos/1st-time Lasix MSW dirt sprints; 5th-finisher from debut returned to win at IND with 60 Beyer.
 
West Coast Chick
65K RNA wnlng, 40K shrt yrlng, 75K yrlng by 16% 2yo FTS sire; 1st starter from multiple SP dam (134K, 1-4 at 2, FTS winner, 1-4 sprint) 3rd dam G3 SW Tennis Lady (283K); family multiple G1 route SW Concern (3.0M); barn 0-51 past 5 years 2yo FTS MSW dirt sprint Spa; bred to be quick.
 
Rachel's Temper
14K RNA yearling by 92-599 (15%) 2yo sire; 1st starter from winning dam (46K, 0-3 sprints); dam 1/2 2yo SW Reformer Rally (243K), SW Wild Royal (115K); barn 0-6 past 5 years 2nd-time 2yos; 5th-finisher from debut returned to win Sunday on turf; jock's 1st call
 
Malibu Angel
Sire 57-354 (16%) 2yo FTS; 1st starter from SP dam (89K, 0-4 at 2, 0-1 sprint); 2nd dam multiple G1 turf SW Donna Viola (996K); barn 0-4 past 5 years 2yo FTS; good pedigree; price should be right.
 
Garzoni
Sire 12% 2yo FTS; dam G1 sprint SW at 2 (Argentina, 243K, FTS winner) with 2 winners/4 runners (2-4 sprinters); barn 3%, $1.52 ROI pst 5 yrs 2yo FTS MSW dirt sprint Spa; 7 works match Snowbell (2nd FTS 66 Beyer MSW Spa 7/25); jock's 2nd call; capable if draws in.

Race 8

Mariel N Kathy
Lone 3-year-old in the field is coming off two solid efforts including a very good race against her elders at this level June 2; the horse she edged by a neck for third won the Grade 3 Dr. James Penny at Parx with a 95 Beyer in her next start; this gal is a half to a couple of horses that placed in Grade 3's and she certainly appears to be headed in the right direction; she has decent speed and figures to use it breaking from the rail; consider for the exotics.
 
Orion Moon (FR)
That was a pretty impressive North American debut for this half-sister to Grade 1 placed Orion Star; she was involved earlly in her races in France but she had to rally after spotting the field a few lengths when she broke poorly in her race at Belmont June 22; she seemed to be under a snug hold when she made her strong move on the turn and while the margin at the finish was a head she never looked like losing once she made the lead; expecting her to take a big step forward in her second start and she could be a handful if she breaks with the field this time; the pick.
 
Viva Rafaela (BRZ)
She won the Grade 1 Brazilian Oaks in her last start Nov. 10 and considering her very sharp five-furlong move July 22 it appears Pletcher has her primed for a big effort for her first start in North America; she was very game after setting the pace in the Oaks and it wouldn't be surprising to see her involved right from the start if she breaks alertly with Velazquez aboard; strong jockey-trainer combo adds to her appeal.
 
Stanwyck
Half to Kentucky Derby winner Giacomo got stuck behind a very slow pace in her first start on the east coast so we won't hold the race against here; it is possible there will be an honest pace for her to work with here plus the added distance should help improve her chances; she is also eligible to move forward in her second start following her first race in four months; the winner of her last start at Santa Anita won a minor stakes in her next start and then finished third in a Grade 2; don't sell short.
 
Tabreed (GB)
Second from Clemente looked good winning her latest at Monmouth and the horse she beat came back to win a first-level $35K optional race going 1 3/16 miles here July 25; horse that beat her in her North America debut won a Grade 3 at Keeneland in her next start; she is a half-sister to a Grade 3 winner in Europe and Rosario is attracted; her stablemate looks more attractive, however.
 
Valiant Girl (GB)
She had an excuse when she finished fourth in a key race at Churchill Downs April 30 but she wasn't going to win the race; horse that finished third in her race at Keeneland April 14 won her next two including the Grade 2 Fleur de Lis; Motion can certainly have them ready to roll coming off this type of layoff but this came up pretty tough; prefer others.
 
Skyfall
Not sure how many will be left if it comes off the lawn but this is the one to beat if it does; she won both times she ran over wet tracks and she comes into this in reasonable form running on the lawn; horse that won her latest at Monmouth won another stakes in her next start; the pick if she gets to go;

Race 9

Galloping Giraffe
Smashing maiden win at BEL June 14 as after sitting back she circled the field to win in a laugher; still, it's a tad worrisome that off just the 1 so-so turf debut they were then willing to part with her for $65K; good news today is Pletcher does not again risk her for a tag and there are 3 very nice works since and surely dirt and routing are she wants; has some pedigree as she's kin to G2 Penn Derby winner Timber Reserve.
 
Grand Mere
Very sharp last fall/winter on both AQU courses, with 2 1sts and 3 2nds in 5 starts, including a sharp 2nd in a stakes March 3; trouble is, she hasn't been seen since and didn't post her next recorded work until June 18; the gap from race to workout and the overall layoff is worrisome but at least she's worked well of late and it's nice to see Rudy does not risk losing her via a claim.
 
Really Right
Off those first 2 smart dirt races they felt good enough to try her in the G3 Va. Oaks on turf July 13; that didn't go very well but it's encouraging they wheel her back fairly quickly, and surely the drop and return to dirt can help her bounce back - so long as that Va. Oaks try didn't take something out of her.
 
Sister State
Smart maiden win at BEL May 3 but she then dueled and fizzled vs. elders there May 26; still, McLaughlin thought enough of her to try the G1 Mother Goose; OK, so those waters were far too deep but it still speaks of optimism; down in class, and if she returns to that big May 3 performance level she can be a player...but that's no small 'if', is it?
 
Finesse
Should be prominent from the start as she showed good speed sprinting in her debut and then gamely led all the way to beat maidens going a mile at CD June 16; that run looks better, too, when you note the gal she beat by a head (Sanaaya) was another 6 1/2 lengths clear of 3rd; that being said, it's first time vs. winners, first time here, first time going 2 turns and first time going this far, with other speed signed up against her so you can see there are some hurdles.
 
Lady Kierkegaard
Kin to Haint (SW, G3 SP) and Play With Fire (G1/G2 SP) has often left herself with far too much to do as she's shown minimal speed; however, Clement added blinks last time and she was more prominent from the start, though she didn't have the needed last oomph; still, the gal she was only a nose behind that day (Malibu Holiday) came right back to win, and the winner (Profetiza) is a much-ballyhooed Mott gal (who did come back to run poorly in a stakes here last week); worked very nicely July 25 and she may get the right kind of pace and with a tad more tactical speed maybe she can make it pay for her...maybe.
 
Clean Jean
No way to knock a gal who's 10 for 29; that shows you she's a pro; OK, so there is a way to knock her - her overall Beyers leave her a ways behind these and most all that was accomplished at FL and she's never run here; also, for all her success last year (10 for 20) this year hasn't gone nearly as well (0 for 5); good news is go back to last Aug. 20 and her only try at this trip at FL resulted in a 12 1/2-length romp and a big 83 Beyer; that fig would put her in the mix here, but she hasn't come close to duplicating it so was that simply an aberration?; could be, but it's also nice to see Frates come with her to keep the ride.
 
Assured
Wonderfully bred filly; by a multiple G1 SW, out of a G1 SW, though only 1 of her 4 sibs is a winner, Relaxed (2 wins, $69K, SP); beyond the pedigree she looked smashing romping over maidens at BEL June 14; of course, that means it's first time vs. winners so that's a big hurdle; it's also first time at this trip, but her ped says she should love it; working like she's ready after the freshening, something we always expect with Mr. Mott.
 
Swakopmund
Had things going very nicely from last fall into the spring, winning 4 of 7; however, after a turf win at AQU April 5 she posted 2 dull outings at BEL in May; at least bounced back with a better run on turf at BEL June 20 (rallied for 3rd); seems better on dirt so the surface switch may help but would even a return to her strong prior form be enough to compete with these?

 

Race 10

Chelsea Road
She sports the best last race Beyer Speed Figure in here and can't ignore the fact that she's making her first start for a barn that does well with new acquisitions; that said, her lack of early speed is a concern, and this has been a tough post to win out of over the years.
Red Code
Outside of a maiden breaking performance more than a year ago, her form hasn't been strong enough to give her a competitive look against these; she must improve over her recent form if she's to prove to be a threat.
Proud Siren
The 1-for-34 career mark alone is a reason to look in another direction for the top spot, and she's going to need to show more than she has in her recent races if she's planning on earning even a minor award against these.
Krissy Kat
She had every right to need her latest race when returning from a long layoff, and if she can take even a small step forward over that performance, she can prove to be a legitimate threat for the top spot; that said, she's another late running type who might need to see some pieces fall into place to have her best chance.
Tapit to Me
This is another in here without much in the way of early speed and she's light on winning form after 16 starts; her two most recent races have been a couple of her better performances, and that might be a reason to give her a look underneath in the exotics.
Southern Symphony
Sire wins with approximately 14% of his turf starters and this is the first foal from a dam who was winless from one start, and it wasn't a turf start; not wild about her form sprinting over dirt, but maybe the assignment of Rosario is a sign that her connections are looking for her to give a good account of herself in her turf debut.
Wellspring Legacy
She's the only one in here with four wins next to her name and like to see that she's won two of four over turf; a little concerned about this being her first start in a turf dash, but she has early speed and it doesn't look like the early pace will heat up all that much; must consider.
Tina's Note
She's another in here with just a single victory after many starts and she will have to show up with an effort that earns her a career best Beyer Speed Figure to prove ot be the one in this spot; third finisher from latest won next out at Sar on 7/28 going 5 1/2f over turf vs. 20k claimers with a 70 Beyer.
Imanindianoutlaw
This doesn't look like a bad spot for her to drop in with claimers for the first time, even if there is a long layoff in play, and as long as she can avoid falling too far out of it through the opening stages, she figures to be right in the hunt nearing the finish; third finisher from latest won next out at Lrl on 11/24 going 1m vs. 25-20k N2L claimers with a 65 Beyer; C.V. has won with 22 of 77 (29%) mounts for this barn in 2013.
Saropia
She has a chance to prove to be the dominant early speed in this race, and if she can outrun Wellspring Legacy to the turn, she'll likely be the one to catch; like the idea of her turning back to 5 1/2f and dropping in class after trying a 7f stakes in her turf debut in her latest outing.
Midnightinpositano
He stepped it up along the Beyer Speed Figure scale in breaking his maiden in his latest outing, and when looking around at what most of these have shown to be capable of over dirt, this looks like it will be a favorable spot for him to land in if this race has to be taken off the turf.