07/28/2013 11:40AM

Closer Looks: Saratoga July 29, 2013

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Race 2

Miss Emilia
Second race in America for this lass who exits a remote placing at Belmont; subsequent works are evenly spaced and she has an expert trainer and rider in her corner; she was well-backed in some of her efforts in France; difficult assessment.
 
Cora Mesa
Finally sheds the blinkers after hitting the board repeatedly in her route career; there does not appear to be a lot of pace in this event which may prevent her from winning top prize once again; needs perfectly timed middle move.
 
Wedding Toast
Although her debut race featured a solid rally, she could inherit the role of pacesetter here and is the selection based on that premise; her sire won the Kentucky Derby and 4.38 million; the dam was unraced and there are no winning siblings to mention; note recent sharp local breeze.
 
Closing Move
The only member of this crew who has a course and distance attempt to her credit; it was a decent showing here last summer, a race where she lost significant ground; seems capable of making first run and is worth some exacta backing.
 
Lunar Surge
Finished behind Miss Emilia in May but did more of the pace prompting work in that event; her sire won 1 of 2 and 33K while the dam won 3 of 13 and 82K; among the winning siblings is 40K earner Thunder Canyon; the trainer is off to a fine start at the meet.
 
Flores Island
Multiple beaten favorite goes back to the main oval but has a running style similar to most of the field; encountered trouble 3 back at Keeneland when beaten by Cora Mesa but encountered traffic trouble that day; can atone for Hall of Fame trainer Mott.
 
Proud Vixen
Respectable comeback race at Belmont, her first outing with blinkers; still seems better suited by the one-turn mile and will have to get into this race sooner to prevent the pacesetter from setting leisurely fractions; cannot be dismissed from consideration.

Race 3

Aireofdistinction
Sire wins with approximately 10% of his turf starters and dam won once from four starts for 29k, including 0-for-1 over turf; this has been a tough post to win out of over the years and this post is 0-for-10 to begin the meeting; that said, this miss does have the needed early speed to help her try to overcome the tough inside draw.
 
I'm Smokin Hot
Sire wins with approximately 14% of his turf starters and dam won 5 of 55 starts for 99k, including 0-for-13 over turf; winner from latest won next out at Pen on 3/30 going 5 1/2f vs. N1X rivals with a 69 Beyer; note the success this barn has had with horses making their second career start in maiden races.
 
Political Storm
Interesting to see Castellano take the call and this barn scored with Angel's South at a big price over the Saratoga turf on July 22; runner up from latest won next out at Kee on 10/13 going 1 1/16m over turf vs. MSW rivals with a 78 Beyer.
 
Kiss Me Lola
She's run well in back-to-back starts to begin her career and she chased a couple of decent looking turf sprinters to the finish in her latest outing; this is an outfit that has been well meant with Saratoga turf starters.
 
Quay
Sire wins with approximately 12% of his turf starters and dam won 3 of 11 starts for 100k, including 0-for-1 over turf; 250k purchase ran well at a demanding distance in her career debut but feel that it's fair to question the caliber of competition she met up with in that event.
 
Mahna
Sire wins with approximately 13% of his turf starters and this is the first foal from a dam who was winless from 11 starts, including 0-for-4 over turf; her form has improved with the addition of Lasix and she beat today's rival Aireofdistinction in her latest start.
 
Wild One
Sire wins with approximately 21% of his turf starters and dam won once from 15 starts for 65k, including 1 of 14 turf starts for 65k; this filly is a 1/2 to stakes winner Putmeinyourwill (7-39, 261k, including 4 of 17 turf starts for 152k) and Bauers Got Hours (7-27, 201k over turf); runner up from latest won next out at Prx on 7/9 going 5 1/2f vs. 40-35k MCL's with a 59 Beyer.
 
Liquid Lunch
This filly makes her first start for former Pletcher Assistant Dilger, who with the help of G2 Sanford winner Wired Bryan is off to a hot start on his own, and this filly has a lot of early speed to throw at these as she turns back in distance to 5 1/2f.
 
Tiger Jilly
Sire wins with approximately 11% of his first-time starters and with approximately 11% of his turf starters, and dam was winless from four starts, including two turf starts; one of two in here for the Rodriguez barn and this outfit is very capable with a firster.
 
Fevered Kiss
Sire wins with approximately 15% of his turf starters and multiple G1 winning dam won 11 of 26 starts for $1.4 million, and she didn't make a turf start; this filly is a 1/2 to Fevers Gone (1-2, 26k over turf); Velazquez has won with 12 of 29 (42%) mounts for this barn in 2013.
 
True Courage
Full sister to stakes winner Doctor Chit (3-8, 196k) attracted a lot of wagering support in her career debut against 11 rivals, and based on her recent workouts, she's likely to be ready for a much sharper try this time around; first call for Castellano.
 
Hot Stones
New York-bred miss ran to her backing in her career debut and she came up just short to a rival that had already made a few starts; she'll command her share of respect in this spot if this race comes off the turf, but this is the second call for Rosario.

Race 4

Tech Fall
Leaves a high-win percentage trainer but goes into a Hall of Fame barn for this; the long layoff would be more of an issue if it wasn't Mott yielding 24% winners with this angle since 2012; career-best Beyer was posted off a long layoff so is fresh and dangerous today.
 
Don Dulce
2-1 morning line as a Main Track Only Saturday in a SAR optional claimer; rock-solid form off the claim and seems well spotted again; DQ'd from a wet-track win 4 races back but has shown he can handle an off race track; looms for a super trip tracking Big Screen.
 
Big Screen
The one to catch today; 7 minor awards he often races well in defeat; tossed some huge Beyers in some of his races but was a dull 4th last summer in his only SAR dirt race; reunites with the win rider and from his career-best AQU Inner Dirt speed figure; 8%-winning trainer turf-to-dirt does not add to the appeal.
 
Cease
Reunites with the July, 2012, SAR win rider piloting 38% winners for the barn since 2012; winless since SAR last summer exiting a career-low Beyer when not handling the slop even more alarming he was 2-for-2 on wet tracks before last; view as a pace presence stalking Big Screen.
 
Aussi Austin
Super-repeat trainer has him 1st time at the SPA off a career-best Beyer; his 2-back runner-up rally was strong chasing the winner who repeated in a BEL-150K stakes with a 92 Beyer; beat the show runner a next-out 99 speed figure BEL-optional claiming winner,
 
Flashy Sunrise
5th SAR dirt start seeking his 1st exacta finish; way off best form heading into this posting his lowest Beyer since October in last; could not beat maidens here last summer and this is much tougher; was in superb form earlier this year but since his March-career best speed figure has been off his best game.

Race 5

Cashleigh
Her recent form has been strong enough to give her a competitive look in this spot, and over the past two years, this barn has won with 8 of 28 (29%) turf starters making their second start back from a layoff; viewing the rider switch to Velazquez as a positive indicator.
 
Majestic Jess (IRE)
Maybe there's something to be said for the fact that Castellano takes the call, but this gelding looks like he's been so-so at best racing overseas, and prefer to see a race out of this runner in America before backing.
 
Popplestone
Barn struck with Short Shrift here on July 19 with Solis aboard, and they'll see if this late running type can make his first start against winners a winning one after getting the job done going 1 1/4m at Cnl when last seen.
 
Hyman Roth
His form started to improve when equipped with blinkers four starts ago and like to see the new dimension he displayed in his latest outing when sitting behind horses before moving on to victory; he's an interesting player while going out for a barn that can be live with a fresh horse.
 
One Golden Road
A couple of his better races have been run over dirt, something to consider if this race gets moved to the main track, and this half-brother to multiple graded stakes winner Atlantic Hurricane (10-22, 637k, including 6 of 13 turf starts for 222k) has run well enough in his two turf starts to be taken seriously over turf as well; 3rd finisher from latest won next out at Mth on 7/20 going 1 1/16m over turf in a 63k stakes with an 83 Beyer.
 
Ricochet Court
The move to turf made a big difference for this gelding, but just not sure that his best effort is quite strong enough to get the better of this field, and he was beaten by today's rival Bold Forest in his latest outing.
 
Bold Forest
He usually shows up and runs his race and he enters this event after earning a career best Beyer Speed Figure; feel that a repeat of his latest performance places him squarely in the mix against these.
 
Chalybeate Springs
Maybe the drop in class can prove to be a difference maker for this colt, but still having a tough time warming up to him based on what he's shown in his six turf attempts; winner from latest won next out at Ind on 7/10 going 1m over turf vs. 40k OPC's with an 86 Beyer.
 
River Boss
Like to see that he's won two of four turf starts and he appears to be taking a well meant drop in class while making his first start since June; Lezcano was aboard for the maiden breaker at Gulfstream Park and he's won with 12 of 34 (35%) mounts for this barn in 2013.
 
Uncle Mitcho
Not wild about the outside post for this colt and he's going to need to step up his game and benefit from a good deal of racing luck to have a chance at earning a solid share of the prize; looking at him as being more of an outsider.
 
Eriugena (IRE)
He ran alright when dropped in class for his first start after a layoff in his latest outing and he was bothered slightly at the start by a horse who bucked his rider; winner form that race returned to win next out at Del on 7/20 going 1m 70y over turf vs. N1X rivals with a 78 Beyer.
 
Get in Line
These connections have been tough to ignore in 2013 and this colt is making his first start for Ramsey and Maker after being claimed for 50k from his latest outing; Rosario has won with 40 of 111 (36%) mounts for this barn in 2013.
 
Logan Street
His form this year points him out as a good fit against competition of this caliber and he split a couple of next out winners in his latest outing; winner won next out at Bel on 7/3 going 1m over turf vs. 14k OPC's with a 75 Beyer and 3rd finisher won next out at Bel on 6/2 going 7f over turf vs. 25k claimers with a 70 Beyer.

Race 6

Antone Suavey
A bit more keen to run early in last, he may be best served settling and making the one run; apparently not much of a work horse, Cohen got a chance to figure him out but runner may need softer to show top talent.
 
Stoneless
Shorter trip should work to his favor; place horse in the turf debut two back cashed next out at this very level, was out of the money twice; winner 2 back repeated in a $25K claimer, then ran poorly; show horse in last took a $14K optional next out, 9th finisher took an N1X at FL and 12th finisher won a $16K BEL claimer; far too sharp to ignore.
 
Holy Endeavor
He could be a bit fragile as the races have been spaced; he seems to like a little give in the ground so beware of the course; style no secret, he will likely be sent along trying to steal it; renewed energy in the Friday work; respect.
 
Deferred Asset
Like this progression; he flashed some semblance of speed in the debut, then passed horses to get the diploma; soph got so R and R at the shore after the winner but the blowout Friday suggests he should be on his toes; a player with slight improvement.
 
Dr Figawi
Nice bit of training to have him cash at first asking; and he did it with style; Stormy Atlantic about 13% with first-time turfers in a 575-runner grid; sire earned almost 150 grand, never turfed; dam took 11 sprints, was out of the money in only turf try; family is solid and includes 4-race grass winner and over $200K earner Dr Rico; barn has been sizzling.
 
Can't Catch Me Now
The two turf efforts leave much to be desired; runner also is facing a number of rivals that have had his number in the past; tough to be positive after the last fiasco.
 
Iron Power
Mizzen Mast about 12% with first-time turfers in a 269-runner grid; sire could do anything including dirt victory while banking over $550K and winning a Grade 1; dam took a stakes and 2 of her 3 wins came on grass; lone sibling took 8 routes, never turfed; place horse in the debut graduated next out in a state-bred MSW, then was third beaten a head at this level before a series of dull tries; don't sell too short.
 
Dark Roast
Brief threat but he found it much tougher dealing with winners; 5/11 place horse took a MSW at the shore, beat $22K optional foes in next, then ran out of the money in the Long Branch; could need easier to thrive.
 
Sirtori
Easing Along 0 for 9 with first-time turfers; sire banked nearly $60K, never turfed; dam's lone win was a dirt sprint; lone half bro took 2 sprints, never turfed; 3 exited 6/21 effort to cash next out; in the exacta in 9 of 15 but this is his toughest test yet.
 
Countknickerbocker
Gelding has the two races to draw from now and the show horse in last took a $14K optional next out, then was 4th beaten just over a length in a $35K claimer; this guy doesn't have to be 6th early on today; bumped two back, he made the huge middle move before reality set in; look out.
 
Bizarroworld
Finally showed a little stamina in last; he has had a tendency to get late; respect his speed, but there are others here with designs on the top; could see him giving backers a brief threat, not sure he will be around at the end.
 
Lord of Love
Fives the order of the day since the win on the sealed good strip; place horse in last took a $14K optional next out and the winner repeated in a $25K optional; runner was losing a little ground late in the last return effort; must pick it up.
 
Marriedtothemusic
Only one poor effort and he was hung out to dry that day; 6/12 show horse cashed next out in a $15K claimer, then was 2nd a half in a $25K optional; like the way he was inching away again and you can never dismiss this kind of zip; major threat if he goes.
 
Ambassador Bridge
If you figure he just needed last, then you can build a case for a forward move; a bit more into the bit early in last to only have to come from 4 plus back; rider got a chance to figure out what's under the hood; valid player if he gets a chance to roll.
 
Street Swagg
Colt beat the smallish field for the victory; he proved he wanted no part of the route game in last; would have liked to have seen some local activity; would be careful here.
 
Fiona's Hero
Nothing like taking a huge drop to get things going in the right direction; place horse in last graduated in a maiden $16K seller to bring record to one for 14; second time blinks proved the charm and Rudy obviously has a good eye for a claim; too sharp to ignore.

Race 7

Ego Friendly
1 of 6 runners entered who have never been this far; off latest fade at 1F shorter seems up against it here for his 1st SAR dirt start; the runner-up finisher from last posted a 77 Beyer speed figure in his next-out SAR alw. win; lone win came from a mid-pack trip and figures to save ground for this then hopes to find the missing late punch.
Everydoghashisday
Race 14 was the charm earning his diploma rallying last-to-1st at 3F shorter than today's event when claimed; set the pace in a few routes so may be chasing Saturday Appeal strongly from the gate for the 1st start vs. winners; longest race to date was an 8th-place turf finish at 1M and 1-16th.
Ultimate Empire
That 2-back mud race was superb when breaking right on the lead; in last settled mid pack then rallied well enough to earn the exacta; can be placed anywhere and race well; been a new runner since blinkers were added while the added distance today seems well within his scope.
Jade Run
Has not shown anything vs. winners beating 3 runners combined in 2 losses; loose on the lead in the 3-back win after rallying to beat Ultimate Empire who avenged that loss 2-back; win rider takes Ego Friendly for this; longest-distance test ever today with stamina issues.
Everyotherdayhero
Troubled pre-rest in a key race; the 5th-place finisher from last Beyered 71 in a next-out BEL-optional claiming win; he beat the 9th and 10th-place finishers 72-59 Beyer winners in FL alw. and DEL-$7,500 claiming victories; lone win on a wet race track but overall his Beyers are on the light side compared to this field.
Saturday Appeal
Projects as the one to catch; loose on the lead to win 2-back in the slop with a career-best Beyer; has never been this far and off latest fade at shorter stamina is a major concern; working well for this but his only SAR start was a dull effort so will be seeking the winner elsewhere; know him early but unsure about late.
Sea to Sky
9%-winning fresh trainer off the dull effort vs. the runner-up finisher who Beyered 81 in his next-out 15K-claiming victory; lone win was in the mud when loose on an easy lead; has Saturday Appeal to deal with from the gate here but best strategy seems to make the front then go as far as he can.
Piscesbymoonlight
Faded the last time sent today's distance and it was the 2nd straight SAR dirt off-the-board finish; is another in the field who has performed his best on a wet-main track; 4-0-0-0 since the barn change but latest represents his best Beyer for this trainer.

Race 8

Livi Makenzie
Far from disgraced in her lone Grade 2 effort at KEE when beaten by a repeater; versatily is one of her assets as she can go :21 and change or pass horses; like fact she handled the Churchill rail two back and note the show horse in that win was 5 clear; she got her last furlong in :11.90 in last, the fastest of any in here that went 6 furlongs in last, and may have just been a bit overmatched in the local debut in Grade 1 land; interesting.
 
Promise Me a Cat
Has the two races to draw from but would have liked to have seen her punch it in locally; connections also entered in the $100K Regret at the shore on Sunday; she has tried Graded company once in her career; in that Delta G3 at a mile, she pressed the pace but faded to 4th; needs very best.
 
Classic Point
The good news is she is peaking right now; the bad news is this is her toughest assignment yet; note runners in the company line two back were well clear but miss finished the last furlong much slower than the rail last time in :12.85; sharp, but probably needs to improve to turn the hat trick.
 
Dance to Bristol
The winner of this race last year, C C's Pal was coming off a third in the Bed o Roses with a 91 Beyer before getting up in this race by a neck; only serious horses are in the exacta in 15 of 16 and love fact she has thrived at a number of different venues; show horse in the CT finale cashed next out in a state-bred $40K stakes at Pimlico; this machine figures to be super tough.
 
Burban
Miss showed talent from day one and she has only put in one poor effort and that was when she was wide off a layoff; nice try in the Grade 1 three back and she may not have adored the going that day; off a career Beyer in last, show horse was 5 clear and she's in good hands; don't sell too short.
 
Glorious View
When the light finally went on, it has shown very brightly; under a vigorous hand ride for the maiden breaker and she proved in last she could take the heat of a speed duel and still inch away late; love the series of drills coming to this race; popular miss should be a handful.
 
Munnings Sister
Miss has been expertly managed as she is repeatedly proven off the bench; dueled into submission in her lone Graded effort and she is looking at some serious pace here; the 4/28 place horse ran first, then 2nd in $61K stakes at the shore since; homebred is too sharp to ignore.

Race 10

Gingee
Not much accomplished before or since that fair showing 3 starts back; latest half-mile breeze was fairly good but that, along with the rail advantage, may prove insufficient; cannot recommend at this time.
 
Mini Muffin
Stayed on very well in her last run at Belmont; it was this mare's personal best performance and that should set up her well today, enabling her to stay within range of the pacesetters who drew wide slots; playable.
 
Alexa
Newcomer was sired by multiple G1 victor Jade Hunter who banked 407K and whose offspring have won 35 out of 500 debuts; the dam went zero 6; among the winning siblings is 30K earner The Wiley Vet.
 
Scienziato
Makes her main track debut after failing to fire on the turf; most recent local breeze displayed distinct improvement; her sire, a multiple G1 winner, netted 4.9 million; the dam never raced; sib to 104K earner Scientist, whose 3 victories were on the green.
 
You Take the Cake
Earned a thin slice in the last try at Belmont which broke the pattern of a long series of wide trips; will likely have to rally from much further back in this field, however, considering the pace profile of the main speeds.
 
Typhoon Teri
In her 2 attempts here last summer, one while the favorite, she did flash some early speed; she tailed off, however, since that narrow loss over the Big A inner dirt; today marks her first visit to the claiming realm, however, and the latest a.m. move showed some life; mixed signals.
 
See See See
She has never really been close to victory regardless of the distance or surface involved; did upgrade in the latest blowout but it still does not seem enough of a plus factor; generous odds assured once again but cannot endorse.
 
Light Weight
That was a sharp half-mile split in the last defeat; she was sired by pure sprinter J Be K who won 440K including a G2 score; the dam went zero for 8; this is her only foal to compete; dangerous if putting away Mononoke in backstretch
 
Mononoke
Looks like the only one here capable of applying heavy pressure to Light Weight; she could not handle the intensity of the last duel at 7 furlongs and this is a much better fit; her chances skyrocket if her main pace rival scratches, or vice versa.
 
Glassy Aly
Gained some ground in her November getaway rest and there is fairly tight spacing to the returning workout regimen; her sire was unraced while the dam won 3 of 51 attempts and 165K; sib to 37K earner Allen's Affair; possible at this reduced level.
 
Ferritto
Ideally, she will be situated right behind battling leaders today with a big gap to fourth; consistent performer has legitimate trifecta chances if taking to this soil; there is no local workout activity to judge, however.
 
Bebes Passion
Goes back to blinkers after showing little firepower downstate; in her only attempt at this main oval last season, she was facing much better company and broke slowly; latest Big A workout was respectable; huge odds assured.