08/03/2013 11:31AM

Closer Looks: Saratoga August 4, 2013


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Race 1

Calm Pacific
Sire wins with approximately 12% of his first-time starters and with approximately 15% of his turf starters, and dam was winless from four starts, including three turf starts; certainly not going to count out the possibility of this Amerman-homebred being live at first asking.
Sire wins with approximately 12% of his turf starters and this is the first foal from a stakes winning dam who won 4 of 11 starts for 152k, including 1 of 3 turf starts for 33k; runner up from latest won next out at Sar on 7/26 going 1 1/8m vs. MSW rivals with an 87 Beyer.
Strike It Big
Sire wins with approximately 14% of his turf starters and dam won 2 of 14 starts for 67k, including 1 of 5 turf starts for 22k; 200k purchse might be looking forward to a move to turf and viewing the presence of Rosario as a positive indicator.
Camp Floyd
Darley-homebred has been soundly defeated in his two turf starts but maybe he can prove to be capable of better with the addition of Lasix in his first start in America; that said, leaning toward others.
There is a long layoff in play, but he ran well in his two turf starts against legitimate competition as a 2-year-old, and the winner from his latest race won next out at GP on 1/5 going 1m over turf vs. 75k OPC's with an 84 Beyer, and has since won a G3 and the Penn Mile.
Sampson County
Sire wins with approximately 5% of his turf starters and dam won once from three starts for 6k, and she didn't make a turf start; runner up from latest won next out at Aqu on 2/17 going 1m 70y vs. MSW rivals with an 86 Beyer.
Sire wins with approximately 15% of his turf starters and stakes winning dam won 10 of 18 starts for 220k, and she didn't make a turf start; his career debut was solid and like to see him getting Lasix for his first turf test.
He commands respect based on what he's shown us in his two turf attempts and Lezcano has won with 16 of 57 (28%) mounts for this barn in 2013; 4th finisher from latest, Rapid Burn, won next out here on 8/1 going 1m over turf vs. 35k MCL's with a 74 Beyer.
Bank Float
Sire wins with approximately 11% of his first-time starters and with approximately 15% of his turf starters, and dam won once from 11 starts for 60k, including 1 of 8 turf starts for 55k; Alvarado has won with 22 of 78 (28%) mounts for this barn in 2013.
Brilliant Command
Sire wins with approximately 10% of his first-time starters and with approximately 19% of his turf starters, and he's 4-for-51 (8%) with starters trying turf for the first time; dam was unraced; this colt is a 1/2 to Nottingham Forest (4-13, 119k, including 2 of 6 turf starts for 68k).
General Pico
Like to see the move he made along the Beyer Speed Figure scale at second asking and he's still eligible to have more to show us; one of three Darley-owned colts signed on in this spot.
Dattt Melody
Sire wins with approximately 13% of his first-time starters and dam was winless from two starts; this colt is a 1/2 to G2 stakes placed Timely Tally (1-5, 59k, no turf starts); this barn isn't best known for first-out success, but his recent workouts look good.
Sneaky Blowout
He's run well in his first three starts and he'll have every bit the look of a top contender for Repole and Pletcher if he gets to go; winner from latest won next out at Bel on 7/6 going 1 1/16m in a G2 with a 100 Beyer; first call for Velazquez.

Race 2

Dance Tap
Sire 13% 2yo FTS, 8% 1st-turf; 1st starter from route-placed dam (0-1 turf); dam 1/2 G1 route SW Pike Place Dancer (578K, 2-2 at 2, 3-3 turf), barn 16%, $1.25 ROI pst 5 yrs 2yo FTS MSW turf route Spa; 6/21 work matches Capivara (6th MSW turf MTH 54 Beyer 7/20); listed as vet scratch 7/11.
Full SW Quiet Dance (224K, 1-5 at 2, 0-2 turf) by 10% 2yo, 9% turf sire; unplaced dam (0-2 turf) has 7 wnnrs/14 rnnrs (1-10 2yos, 2-8 turfers); dam 1/2 2yo turf G1 SW Minstrella (358K); barn 1-5 (20%, $3.80 ROI) past 5 years 2nd-time 2yos sprint/route turf MSW Spa; didn't have easy trip in debut and wheels back quickly; must improve.
Sire 84-612 (14%) 2yos, 439-2936 (15%) turf; 1st starter from multiple G3 SW (344K, 0-1 at 2, 5-15 turf); 2nd dam SW Gal On the Go (238K, 2-5 at 2, 0-4 turf); barn 1-7 (14%, $1.08 ROI) past 5 years 2nd-time 2yos turf; bred to appreciate distance and expected to move up with Lasix.
Tempers Flair
Sire 14% 2yo FTS, 11% 1st-turf; turf SW dam (71K, 0-2 at 2, 2-2 turf) has 1 wnnr/1 rnnr; dam 1/2 2yo G1 route SW Boston Harbor (1.9M, FTS wnnr); barn 5%, $0.40 ROI pst 5 yrs 2yo FTS MSW turf route (0-7 Spa); 8 works match Temper Too (5th FTS SMSW 27 Beyer PID 7/24); 7/5 work match The Careless Cat (5th FTS turf MSW 61 Beyer 7/22).
Ketel Twist
70K shrt yrlng; 150K yrlng; 1/2 SW Catrageous (90K, 0-5 at 2, 1-3 turf) by 16% 2yo, 10% turf sire; dam won on turf at 2 (31K, 1-2 at 2, 1-8 turf) with 1 wnnr/2 rnnrs (0-2 with 2yos, 1-2 turf); dam full G2 turf SW Masseuse (439K, 0-3 at 2, 5-12 turf); barn 0-12 past 5 years 2nd-time 2yos sprint/route MSW turf route Spa; very logical with normal improvement.
Fierce Boots
1/2 2yo G1 route SW Power Broker (578K, 1-5 at 2, 0-2 turf) by 8% 2yo FTS, 8% 1st-trf sire; SW dam (122K, 0-6 at 2, 1-1 trf) with 2 wnnrs/2 rnnrs (1-1 2yos, 1-2 turf); dam 1/2 G1 route SW Miss Shop (1.1M, 2yo FTS wnnr, 1st-trf wnnr), barn 16%, $1.25 ROI pst 5 yrs 2yo FTS MSW turf route Spa; 2 works match Super Sky (3rd FTS MSW 66 Beyer 7/22)
La Reine Bourbon
14K RNA wnlng, 24K RNA yrlng, 100K 2yo after 1F work 10.2; 1/2 SP 2yo Dreamlicious (115K, 0-8 at 2, 1-4 turf) by 14% 2yo FTS, 20% 1st-turf sire; unplaced dam (0-1 turf) has 2 wnnrs/4 rnnrs (1-3 2yos, 1-2 turf); barn 18%, $1.96 ROI pst 5 yrs 2yo FTS MSW turf route Spa; 5 works match Hillhouse High (4th FTS MSW turf 76 Beyer 7/22); capable.
Sire 44-323 (14%) 2yos; 1st starter from SP dam (202K, 2-5 sprint); dam 1/2 G3 SW Thunder Kitten (253K, 1-5 sprint), multiple SW Nobo True (5.2M, Japan); barn 5-25 (20%, $1.96 ROI) past 5 years 2nd-out 2yos MSW dirt sprint (0-7 Spa); 4th-finisher of debut won 75K MCL 54 Beyer 7/25.
Ma Billet Doux
500K yearling; 1/2 SW Heart of a King (254K, 0-1 at 2, 7-25 sprint), 2yo SP Nockonheavensgate (58K, 1-7 at 2, 1-8 sprint) by 110-721 (15%) 2yo sire; winning dam (43K, 1-1 sprint) has 3 winners from 4 runners (1-3 with 2yos, 3-3 sprint); dam 1/2 turf SW Pompeyano (255K); barn 0-10 past 5 years 2nd-out 2yos turf to dirt.

Race 3

Risk Management
Although the distance transition seems severe; this colt can upgrade substantially with the inside slot; shows a varied workout pattern since the purchase and may be able to give the primary speed, who draws alongside, a real tussle; playable.
Road Agent
Looks like the main pacesetter although he exits a very demanding race where he was all-out; if not drained somewhat by that performance, he can return instant dividends here; bound to be a short price on the board, however.
Song of Aspen
Not much to highlight of late although one of his better tries was 3 back at this distance; even with the prospect of a more accelerated pace today, he will likely arrive too late for the top prize; wheels right back; his only placing at this oval was last summer when he caught a sloppy track.
Meet the Mets
Statebred should have been helped, condition-wise, by the last try over a tiring turf course; broke maiden over this soil last season when rallying from close range and because of the numerical rise today, should offer decent betting value; latest work was upbeat.
Mr Rodriguez
Failed as the favorite in his 2012 getaway race, his most recent local breeze showed some promise; in his only start over this course, he was a respectable third in an overnight stakes earning his best Beyer in the process; a difficult runner to fathom at this point.
Too Much Talk
Chased a fairly quick pace in the last run at Belmont; earned a very competitive Beyer 2 back in that tally at Hawthorne, a race that turned out to be key; would benefit if the inside pair of runners hook up in an immediate duel today, a possibility.
Quit early against softer company downstate and, even with that needed tightener under her belt, does not seem to match up well with this field; would improve his thin chances if a muddy track is the order of the day.
Sneaky Freud
The recent rally was deceptively good where he clearly trounced new barn mate Song of Aspen; would benefit if Road Agent is softened up in the opening stages which would create a favorable pace meltdown; exotic wager recommendation.

Race 4

Sam Sparkle
Fresh 5 year old makes his local return and he did run quite well from an inside draw here 3 starts back; it's been a long time since he's won, but he has been competitive in picking up minor awards since then and he does look to get some pace in front of him while tackling the trip at which he earned both of his scores; can get in the exotics mix.
Scout's Honor
Gray steps up while making his local debut off a pace pressing score at Monmouth; like the fact he was able to sit closer to the top early at that shorter trip and he does lure Castellano for this one; still, he'll need to keep improving to step with these.
Undefeated colt makes his first start for a hot Pletcher barn that hits at a big clip with this type; they keep his regular pilot on him for this and the Beyer he earned last out fits pretty well on the rise to this level; he spots them some experience but he did show some guts in running down the loose leader last time and his interim breezes suggest the rest since has served him well; dangerous.
Majestic Hussar
Rode the local slop to an impressive first out score last summer before running into the eventual division champ next out in the G2 Hopeful; colt continued keeping top company since returning from the time off, running into a couple of Triple Crown winners and defeating one who recently returned to take the local G2 Jim Dandy; he'll tackle older rivals for the first time in this spot, but he's proven he can fire fresh and his drill the other day suggests he's on his toes for this one; main danger.
Congressional Page
Eight year old has certainly lost a step or 2 over the past couple of seasons and he never did much over the local main track; recent moderate figure scores came over synthetic footing and his last dirt score was an also ran effort over the track last summer; have to side with others for the money spots.
He's been away from the races for a few months since offering little at a short price when dropped out of the G1 stakes ranks at Belmont; he had set the pace against much better prior to that one after a close finish from off the pace in an inner track sprint stake; barn does nice work with its returnees and this guy's local breeze last weekend suggests he was over whatever it was that ailed him; with Rosario taking the call he's the one they'll have to beat.
Make a Fortune
Beaten chalk in 4 straight makes his second start off the break for an outfit that hits at a nice clip with this type; barn names a pilot who does quite well for them and this guy was caught in wide spot in his local circuit debut; price should be much better this time and he has earned his better career numbers at this trip; can't be overlooked.
Starts from the outside slot after showing little off the troubled break in his downstate finale; 4 year old has worked well up here and maybe that signals an improved effort is on tap, but that would only likely be enough to get him in the underneath exotics picture today.

Race 5

Sire 12% 2yo FTS; dam G1 sprint SW at 2 (Argentina, 243K, 3-4 at 2, FTS winner, 6-16 sprint) with 2 wnnrs/4 rnnrs (2-4 sprint); dam full multiple G1 SW Gouache (Argentina), barn 1-29 (3%, $1.52 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS MSW dirt sprint Spa; 5 works match Snowbell (2nd FTS 67 Beyer MSW Spa 7/25).
1/2 SP turf Moon Prospect (106K, 1-1 at 2, 0-1 sprint) by 16% 2yo FTS sire; unraced dam has 2 wnnrs/4 rnnrs (1-2 with 2yos, FTS wnnr, 0-1 sprint); dam full 2yo turf G3 SW Moon Driver (France); 3rd dam is Miesque; barn 33%, $2.59 ROI pst 5 yrs 2yo FTS MSW dirt sprints Spa; bred for turf, but guessing she can run on dirt.
Guilty Verdict
Sire 23-176 (13%) 2yo FTS; dam multiple G1 route SW (654k, 2-3 at 2, FTS winner, 1-2 sprint) with 0 winners from 3 runners (0-2 sprinters); 2nd dam multiple G1 SW Inside Information (1.6M, 1-2 at 2, won debut, 4-5 sprint); barn 0-18 past 5 years 2yo FTS MSW dirt sprint Spa.
Malibu Angel
Sire 57-355 (16%) 2yo FTS; 1st starter from SP dam (89K, 0-4 at 2, 0-1 sprint); 2nd dam multiple G1 turf SW Donna Viola (996K, 2-7 at 2); barn 0-4 past 5 years 2yo FTS; solid pedigree and price should be right.
Julia Tutwiler
Sire 12% 2yo FTS; G3 SP dam (156K, 1-4 at 2, 2-7 sprint) has 1 wnnr/2 rnnrs (0-2 with 2yos, 0-2 with sprinters); dam 1/2 multiple G1 route SW Colonel John (1.7M, 2-4 at 2, 1-3 sprint), G1 route SP Mr. Hot Stuff (341K, 0-3 at 2, 0-2 sprint, G1 SW jumps), SP router Kayce Ace (151K, 0-1 sprint); barn 0-42 past 5 years 2yo FTS MSW dirt sprint Spa.
Le Plume
Sire 14% 2yo FTS; 1st starter from unplaced dam (0-1 on turf); 2nd dam multiple SW Sophie My Love (234K, 1-3 at 2, FTS winner, 1-2 sprint); barn 1-34 (3%, $2.94 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS MSW dirt sprint Spa; workouts give mixed feelings.

Race 6

Warrior Up
Exits a long series of mile races, the last one involving a sharp rally that fell short; his only try at seven-eighths was at Belmont last year when he caught a muddy track and broke poorly; today's post is no bargain yet this runner still deserves some respect.
Bake Shop
Delaware import has done his best running in routes so his placing here is, at first glance, a puzzle; the trainer's win percentage is solid though and a Hall of Fame rider is named; dangerous if indeed speed has fared well on the card up to now.
He is one of the most consistent horses on the NYRA circuit; the gelding was given a well-deserved rest after a narrow victory 2 months ago; note the fractions in his last try over this course, at today's distance, running against the mighty Saginaw; obvious true contender.
Cousin Michael
Lightly-raced and a newcomer to this course and distance; he did turn in a very sharp workout here the other morning but is facing some true veterans of the game and will have to run a personal best to defeat them; expert trainer is a big plus.
Papa Tom
Surprised in the last run when capturing the place; lost to his mate Warrior Up in May but he had a legitimate excuse in that defeat; draws a favorable attack post now and may get overlooked in the wagering once again; worth some exotic wagering inclusion.
Quiet Power
Quite the steady check earner since the claim in February but the fact remains he has never shown any preference whatsoever for this oval; most recent local breezes are only modest and may not be enough to end that trend; might be an underlay as well.
Junior Officer
Did not advance when turning back to this distance more than a month ago; unlike most of the field, however, he does have a local win to his credit and that victory was accomplished against open company; needs perfectly timed middle move.
Returns from nearly a year-long vacation but showed much promise as a 3-year-old and has been breezing steadily for the return; reverts to Castellano who was aboard this colt for that easy tally last season at Belmont; cannot disregard by any means.
Dehere of the Cat
Closed with a rush to just miss last month and a troubled break and wide racing path cost him the victory; despite that personal best Beyer, still have doubts believing seven furlongs is his optimum distance; the latest bullet blowout could help him prove otherwise.
Wee Freudian
Hits the board often regardless of the footing but he has never been victorious locally or at seven-eighths (though his last 2 races at this distances were run in exceptionally quick time); on the plus side: he has the best recent overall Beyer record and this wide slot can work in his favor.
Bug Juice
Definitely worth some play especially in the hands of this rider; has won via the turf-to-dirt angle in the past and this gelding's only try at seven furlongs was in a 100K added money event; if outside sweepers have performed well on the card, he should be factored into your plans.

Race 7

Moonlit Sonnet
Troubled in last 2 runner-up finishes; the 2-back exacta finish looks better since the winner repeated in a BEL-optional claimer with a 78 Beyer speed figure; she was favored in last on the SAR Inner Turf but was bumped at the break; has every right to improve today 2nd time off the bench especially with a clean trip.
Bourbon Twist
28%-winning fresh trainer adds to the appeal and with just 3 career races there is still plenty of upside here; debut win at today's distance was super but has not fired back to that speed figure in next pair; the runner-up finisher from last Beyered 82 in a next-out BEL alw. win; the 2-back runner-up posted a 71 speed figure in her next-out BEL alw. victory.
Ambitous placement off the 31-1 claiming loss when beating 1 runner home; 6-0-0-0 record vs. winners while her SAR turf races on Mellon green were all traveling 5.5F; finished 10th November, 2011, in her only grass race at today's distance.
Golden Cheetah
Game winner scoring despite a troubled trip at $64; never been to SAR but posted a steady workout for a 28%-winning repeat trainer; took off the blinkers then showed improved gate speed posting a new Beyer-career Top; the 3-back runner-up finisher graduated next out in a SAR-MSW race with a 71 Beyer.
Funny Money
Has never raced this far exiting a dull effort when facing winners for the 1st time; 32%-winning fresh trainer suggests an improved effort is on the way; beat the 2-back runner-up finisher who Beyered 75 in a next-out BEL-MSW win then repeated in a SAR alw. with an 81 speed figure; best races suggest the added distance will help the cause.
Eurokay by Me
Best Beyer and lone win accomplished over a less-than-firm turf course with an apprentice at 115 pounds; both exactas on less-than-firm grass; beat 1 runner home in latest over the SAR sod at today's distance; reunites with the rider from the June-show finish for this; would be a shocker.
Hurricane Jackie
Just 2 career races with tons of upside off her win at longer 2nd-time out; gets to avenge the debut loss vs. Moonlit Sonnet where she broke slowly but raced right on the lead in last liking the less-than-firm going; freshened up for the SPA with a 31%-winning repeat trainer; figures to be a major player from bell to finish.
Necessary Luxury
Best Beyer on BEL dirt so likely would not mind this moved to a fast-main track; beat 1 runner home last summer when racing at today's distance on SAR Inner Turf defeated by the winner who repeated in a SAR-optional claimer with an 84 speed figure.
Won 3rd time off the claim rallying from 8th to score over today's turf course at the distance; her best Beyer since 2012 was over a less-than-firm grass course but was able to win on firm footing in last showing how sharp she is at the moment; the 3-back show runner Beyered 76 in her next-out BEL-optional claiming win.
Satin Sheeks
32%-winning jockey-trainer combo since 2012 for a barn 23% winners with similar runners off the bench; did not offer much run in 3 races since the May, 2012, 1st start with winners; she has been best in career at today's distance in the past but faded at shorter in last; overall have mixed feelings.
Miz Owell
Maiden-claiming graduate shoots high here; been a new horse since blinkers were added for a 30%-winning repeat barn; wide draw for this after saving ground for part of the way from post 2 in last; win rider stays right here off the new career-best Beyer.
Swift Taylor
Main Track Only entry fired a career-best Beyer in last when chasing the winner who repeated with an 85 speed figure in a BEL-optional claimer; troubled last-place finish 2-back vs. the runner-up who Beyered 82 in her next-out BEL alw. win; the 3-back runner-up Beyered 71 in a next-out BEL alw. score.
3 times a beaten-betting favorite since the eye-catching graduation BEL romp; MTO had no answers for Swift Taylor in last on dirt while her 2 races on SAR dirt were in sprints; her lone win was traveling this far on a muddy track.
Motion Lounge
MTO has been working well but starts for just a 10%-winning fresh trainer since 2012; exits a career-low Beyer speed figure 1st blinkers when finishing last and reported to have bled; debut win in the SAR mud at 6F she is doing the rain dance for this; posted a solid 2-back career-best Beyer effort but will be taking a wait and see approach.
MTO was claimed off a high-win percentage trainer which is not a good win angle; has never been this far fading on a wet-race track and appears best on fast footing; the 3-back winner repeated in a BEL-optional claimer with a 65 Beyer.
Yampa River
Exits a career-best Beyer on turf but is an MTO entry today; 24%-winning fresh trainer adds to the appeal; stamina has been the main ingredient missing for succes; she figures to be a major pace presence for this.

Race 8

Clearly Confused
Twice beaten chalk tries the green for the first time for a barn that hasn't had much recent luck with this type; she does have speed and the fence but there's not much grass on the dam's side of her pedigree as she never tried the footing and her lone foal to do so was 0 for 3 over it; sire does get nearly 12% winners from his first time turfers.
Spun Silky
Cuts back a bit off a solid effort from the outside draw on the Belmont green 6 weeks back; she's got the early foot to stay involved from the bell and could sit a good trip behind the speed drawn inside her; Castellano goes elsewhere, but she's one to consider in this spot.
Strategic Missile
Statebred cuts back after earning minor awards in 3 straight on the Belmont lawn, each time earning a number that fits rather well on the drop back to this level; 3 time winner has lacked the knockout punch of late, but she is a local winner and does figure to have a little more to offer in the lane today; contender.
My Bella Beauty
Took to the lawn while tackling conditioned claimers first time over the footing in her return from the freshening and now she'll try better; loses a top pilot but gets another for her local course debut and the shorter trip doesn't figure to bother her much.
Giulio's Jewel
Earned a field best number in breaking her maiden against cheap claimers first time on the lawn downstate 9 weeks ago and now she'll try winners; she's another getting a new pilot, but he's also quite capable and this gal's early lick figueres to have her in the mix from the bell; quick final split in that last one makes her a dangerous repeat threat.
She's another cutting back from a 7 panel downstate turf sprint and the trip proved to be a little much for her that day; both of her wins came at 3/4s and given her early lick she shouldn't have much trouble handling this trip; she's another losing Castellano's services, but she'll get a nice replacement.
Indian Splendor
Castellano chooses to get aboard this front running Independence Day return winner who shook off pace pressure to break her maiden in popular fashion on the Jersey shore; she opened a clear lead before bolting first time on the lawn here last summer and was subsequently amibtiously placed before getting time off; expecting she'll again be sent to the lead and though there's other speed in here, likely proves to be the one to run down.
Gnarley Girl
Tries the lawn for the first time after being freshened a bit off the popular Parx maiden score first time in blinkers; gray's sire gets 9% first surface winners from his offspring and neither the dam nor her 2 other foals to race tried this type of footing.
Spooky Kitten
Outside drawn filly gets Velazquez for the cut back after being defeated by a couple of these gals last time; effort 2 back against better was pretty solid and with the regression behind her maybe she gets back to it at this shorter trip; doesn't win often, but she could find herself in a good spot to run these down.
Bobby Jo
MTO enters this as thrice beaten chalk but she was quite competitive in each of her last 3 sprint tries; Castellano is listed to ride if this one comes off and this gal does figure to have some bottom on the turnback from the last out route; lone try with moisture in the track resulted in a career best number; one to beat if the rains come.
Queen Mercury
MTO worked pretty sharpy here the other day for her first start outside of California; she did win the last time she stepped on dirt and may prefer the footing over that which she's been running out West; but she's going to need to move forward some to contend for any more than a minor placing if this gets moved to the dirt.

Race 9

Bahamian Squall
Super win in the G2 Smile Sprint; hey, that's the champion sprinter (Trinniberg) who finished in 2nd behidn him; has ample tactical speed and versatility; that being said, this is his first trip outside Florida and a very, very tough spot; did work sharply at GP July 27 (:47B) to indicate he's doing well, but there are hurdles to be sure.
Gentlemen's Bet
Also entered in a stakes at MNR but reports are he'll go here instead; comes off 2 smashing wins at CD and PRM, earning back-to-back 107 Beyers, and he beat top-class Delauney (a foe today) in that PRM run June 28; it's his first time here but he's handled GP dirt, OP dirt, CD dirt and PRM dirt so odds are he'll handle this place.
Looked like he might be the nation's top sprinter with 3 big wins to start the year; that is, until today's foe Gentlemen's Bet beat him fairly easily at PRM June 28; that was his first start in about 7 weeks, however, so he's eligible to improve; yet to run here but he's done well at so many other places you likely don't have to worry about how he'll handle this place; speed and versatility gives Rosie options, too.
Justin Phillip
Tough customer; slow start didn't help in the G2 Smile but he ran on well to be 4th behind 'Squall, not beaten all that far, too (2 lengths); back in his sandbox (NY) and he comes here doing well with 3 triple-digit Beyers in his last 4 starts, 2 of those wins; doesn't have to chase Baffert monster Fast Bullet this time, either.
Caixa Eletronica
One tough ol' dude; comes off 2 straight route wins but he's quite at home playing this game, too (5 for 11); been a real pro for a long, long time - hey, you don't win 22 times by accident; that being said, he is an 8yo now and while the results have been good of late the Beyers have still declined some so could it be that he's winnig because of sharp placement by Pletcher and not so much because he's still so sharp?; could be, and if that's the case, can he handle today's class hike, hmmmm?; at least he's 3 for 8 here so you know he handles this place and it's not the strongest Vanderbilt we've seen, is it?

Race 10

Bell by the Ridge
He ran okay from off the pace two starts back at Churchill Downs, but he really had every chance to get the job done that day before settling for second, and it would have been nice to have seen more out of him in his latest start; not counting him out of it, and respect the presence of Castellano, but others entice more.
Film Making
Nicely bred 5-year-old finished behind today's rival Bell by the Ridge two starts ago and his latest effort wasn't one of his better performances; without the prospect of a fast and contested early pace, this stone-cold closer might have a tough time getting over the top through the stretch.
Tricky Hat (CHI)
Like to see that he has enough positional speed to get himself forwardly placed through the opening stages, and he might be ready to show up with one of his better performances while making his second start back from a layoff; note the bullet workout on July 27 in preparation for this.
He ran to his backing when recording an open lengths win at Suffolk Downs in his latest start, but that was a much softer field than he's meeting up with today; looking at this as being a tough assignment for him.
Share Out
A little concerned when seeing that he took a fall in a jump event in his latest start, but his overall turf form hasn't been bad; he ran well in a similar spot over this turf course last year and the 1-2 finishers from that race would look very good against the likes of these.
Majestic Raffy
He's been a consistent performer, but thought he was a little flat through the stretch in his latest start and that was after Castellano gave him a pretty comfortable trip; note that Castellano will pilot Bell by the Ridge in this spot.
Go On Murt (IRE)
Like to see that he owns the speed to grab the early advantage but this looks like a tough step up in class for him and he might prefer distances shorter than today's 1 3/16m assignment; runner up from latest won next out at Sar on 7/27 going 6f vs. 20k claimers with a 78 Beyer.
Tahoe Lake (BRZ)
Grade 1 stakes placed veteran might not have cared for being involved in the early pace in his latest start, and even though the fractions weren't fast, the 1-2-3 finishers raced toward the back of the pack through the opening stages; not going to be at all surprised if he gives a better account of himself in this spot.
There really isn't much in the way of dirt form signed on in the main body of this race, so this G3 stakes placed colt will find himself in a favorable spot if this race gets moved to the main track; runner up from latest won next out at Sar on 7/29 going 1 1/8m vs. 100k OPC's with a 93 Beyer.
Suns Out Guns Out
He's more than capable of producing a competitive performance against these and like to see that he got the job done in his only start over the main track here; runner up from latest won next out at Ind on 7/24 going 1 1/16m vs. 40k OPC's with a 95 Beyer.

Race 11

Face the Race
Troubled in the debut, the rest of the races look very similar; no help from lone sibling that tried grass since he was out of the money twice on grass; in good hands, but can't fault those that are a bit gun shy after the double chalk flop on the slate.
Can't be thrilled with the beat for a tag two back; backers can point to the fact that one of his better efforts was here going short; still, would think long and hard before taking too short a number.
Leroidesanimaux about 13% with debuters in a 125-runner survey, about 20% with first-time turfers in a 102-runner sample; sire did not run at 2, took second start at 3, won a couple of G1s, banked over $1.6 million, mostly on grass; 4 for 27 dam banked about $75K, lost thrice on grass; 3 of 5 siblings won; top kin Kats Golden Ways was a double winner on grass, banked $130K; never easy to win long at first asking.
Gave backers a nice little thrill on the stretch out; connections would love to see him mature like top kin, stakes winner, over $325K earner Go Unbridled, who never tried grass; winner two back repeated in a state-bred $14K optional with a 78 Beyer for Hushion; respect.
Eleven Bravo
Hung wide but at least he got a feel of the surface; 9 for 73 dam earned over $250K, won 5 times on grass; several multiple race winners in the tree; 3 tried grass to no avail but kin Absinthe Minded won stakes, banked over $600K; he's starting to figure it out.
Cielo Soleggiato
A bit more keen to run with the blinks last time; 1 for 11 dam did cash on turf; this is her first to roll; one angle to think about: this rider is 4 for 15 for this barn in the last year or so.
Rushed up after slow start two back, could not finish; sent along on the slow pace in last and just faltered; there is a turf winner in the tree and a near $200K earner; like this progression; he closed two back, flashed speed in last; that may be a winning pattern.
Key Decision
Hard Spun 9 for 88 with first-time turfers; sire unbeaten in 3 juvenile outs, took G1 King's Bishop, banked over $2.6 million, never turfed; dam's lone win was a dirt route, she was out of the money in both turf tries; 4 of 5 siblings won; one cashed once on grass, top kin Scatkey banked nearly $225K; was an ice cube on the tote and fans were right; the race came back okay as the trailer took a maiden $40K seller next out and the place horse took an MSW fray; would lean toward watching a return race.
Polaris Dream
First off, why did he have to take 2012 off?; and then you are looking at several beats vs. softer; overdue to hit paydirt.
Jack's R Wild
Tough to go all in on this hand; just too many chances to get overly excited about; no speed, no asset; not my kind of play.
Jesses Giant Dunk
Maybe he hated the rail when taken back in the debut; 7 for 42 dam banked nearly $140K; 2 of 5 siblings won; top kin won almost $50K, but needed 10 wins and 52 starts to do it; has some things to iron out.