08/20/2013 2:04PM

Closer Looks: Saratoga August 21, 2013


DRF Plus Preview

Race 1

Margaret Ownzit
7K RNA yrlng; sire 6% 2yo FTS; dam won sprint (72K, 0-2 at 2) with 1 wnnr/1 rnnr (0-1 with 2yos, 1-1 sprint); dam 1/2 SP Saratoga Lulaby (330K, 1-8 at 2, 1-13 sprint); barn 2-5, $6.50 pst 5 yrs 2yo FTS NYB MSW dirt sprint; 6 works match Livininthefastlane (5th FTS SMSW 22 Beyer 8/16); 7/29 work match Blue Creek (6th N1X 70 Beyer PRX 8/3).
She's a Sizzler
Sire 23-189 (12%) 2yo FTS; dam won sprint (46K, 1-1 at 2, 2-9 sprint) with 1 winner from 1 runner (0-1 with 2yos, 1-1 with sprinters); dam full multiple SP Metro Meteor (299K, 1-5 at 2, 1-6 sprint); barn 1-8 (13%, $1.90 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS NYB MSW.
Court Dancer
35K yearling; Sire 12-119 (10%) 2yo FTS; dam placed routing (8K, 0-1 at 2, 0-2 sprint) with 4 winners from 6 runners (1-4 with 2yos, 4-6 with sprinters); dam full SW Jay's Crown (97K); barn 1-14 (7%, $0.94 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS NYB MSW dirt sprints.
9K RNA yearling; 1/2 SP Willy's Wicked Way (192K, 5-24 sprint) by 24-226 (11%) 2yo FTS sire; dam sprint winner (79K, 6-29 sprint) with 9 winners from 9 runners (2-5 with 2yos, 1 debut winner, 8-9 with sprinters); dam 1/2 G3 SW Rugged Bugger (380K, 0-3 sprint); barn 0-23 past 5 years 2yo FTS dirt sprints.
Sire 17% 2yo FTS; dam SP router (150K, 0-3 at 2, 0-2 sprint) with 1 wnnr/3 rnnrs (0-2 with 2yos, 0-1 sprint); dam 1/2 SW 2yo Millennium Storm (191K, 3-16 sprint), SP router Itsabeautifulthing (107K, 1-1 sprint); barn 3-19, $3.38 pst 5 yrs 2yo FTS (wins turf/poly); 7/25 work match Yampa River (7th 20K 'beaten; claimer turf 57 Beyer 8/8); interesting.
Fee and Sugar
17K weanling, 37K yearling; sire 40-257 (16%) 2yo FTS; 1st starter from unraced dam; 2nd dam turf SW Makethemostofit (155K, 0-1 at 2, 0-1 sprint); barn 1-4 (25%, $9.50 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS SMSW dirt sprint Spa.
Thatza Wrap
Sire 7-94 (7%) 2yo FTS; winning dam (61K, 0-1 at 2) has 2 winners from 2 runners (1-1 with 2yos, 1-1 with sprinters); dam full G3 SP Sheer Luck (205K, 2-6 at 2, 0-3 sprint); dam 1/2 SP sprinter Theycallmeladyluck (52K, 0-3 at 2, 2-9 sprint); barn 2-9 (22%, $3.02 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS SMSW dirt sprints Spa; solid pedigree.
19K RNA 2yo after 1F work 10.2; sire 8-88 (9%) 2yo FTS; 1st starter from winning dam (126K, 1-3 at 2, 3-16 sprint); dam full multiple 2yo turf SW Air Crew (Italy, 356K, 4-11 at 2); barn 1-6 (17%, $2.00 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS NYB MSW dirt sprint; 8/10 work matches Chessrate (40 dirt Beyer, entered Wed. R6)
Longride to Wisdom
Sire 42-287 (15%) 2yo FTS; 1st starter from multiple SW dam (136K, 2-6 at 2, won debut, 3-12 sprint); dam 1/2 SP 2yo sprinter Fortune in Gold (21K, 1-6 at 2, 2-12 sprint); barn 2-19 (11%, $1.75 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS SMSW dirt sprint (0-9 at Spa).
Sire 12-100 (12%) 2yo FTS; unraced dam has 2 winners from 3 runners (0-3 with 2yos, 0-3 with sprinters); dam 1/2 G2 sprint SW True Quality (288K), G3 turf SP Long Face (156K, 1-2 at 2); barn 2-3 (67%, $5.03 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS SMSW dirt sprint Spa; 7/31 work match Artemis Agrotera (1st FTS SMSW 86 Beyer 8/16); respect.

Race 2

Lily Lynn
Consistent Beyerwise with figs in the mid 60s, but looks a little suspect from a class perspective, seemingly being a 15K - 20K claimer on paper; this starter race is likely too challenging for her; does have Rudy in her corner, though he hasn't won at his customary clip at the Spa in relation to down in the city.
Nothing But Air
Though her figs aren't flashy, she's a lightly raced filly eligible to improve; she ran well off the bench to be third against a comparable field July 29 and could very well improve upon that performance; Levine hasn't done much with her since - just an slow half; has upside.
Quiet Sunshine
Proved she fit at this level with a third June 27; she also won a NY-bred allowance in February; was a smart claim out at Hollywood for 16K - given her NY-bred connections; chances barns leading up to this; pretty consistent, that failure on the lawn notwithstanding.
So Blessed
Stakes placed miss ran a clear second here for 35K, rebounding from a poor effort in her first start of the meet; that poor effort came in a race like this one - note that she was behind Nothing But Air in that spot; returns pretty quickly; Castellano gets the mount - Rosario is on Queen Mercury.
Belle Gallantey
Pleased to see this one back in a starter; she was outclassed in that standard N1X last time out, but was second the last time she faced similar; doesn't win often and is short on speed; so seems best used on the bottom of the exotics.
Tanglewood Tale
That 84 last-race Beyer is easily tops in the field, and a lifetime best for this miss; some will be betting on a bounce; but bear in mind that she loves this track (4-2-0-2), having made 70K of her 111K bankroll here - though less than 27% of her starts have come locally; choice.
Queen Mercury
Comes here by way of California, where she was claimed from a 25K claimer; acts like a versatile filly; so though her last four starts have come on turf, she doesn't seem to lose anything on dirt; she won her last dirt start back in January; worked quickly Aug. 1 and attracts Rosario; contender.

Race 3

Took a big drop and it paid off as she rallied to beat maidens at 7-1 on turf at BEL July 14; that's all well and good and shows progression and that this (sprinting on turf) is the game she likes; however, the bulk of her prior form wasn't very pretty so was that last run the exception to the rule?; could be, and today it's first time vs. winners, a big hurdle; then again, maybe Prado has the knack with her...maybe.
Plenty of speed here and a good 2nd in a spot like this here July 31 stamps her the one to beat; figures to be out there winging but she's no need-the-lead type; after all, her slop win at FL a couple months ago showed she could press the pace and pass a rival if need be.
Dust Em Mick
2 turf tries were her 2 best tries, and after a dud in a race washed off the turf vs. tougher here Aug. 14 she gets back to turf; not only back to her preferred footing but the drop surely helps and Jacobson adds blinkers, too (21%); also nice to see the quick turnaround by Jacobson as he's had ample success when coming back in a week or less (29%).
Sweet Sway
Lone turf try wasn't much, yes, but that also came almost 10 months ago and preceded a layoff so maybe something went awry that day, too; she's a much better filly now than she was then though of course the fact she gave way so readily in that lone turf try is a bit disconcerting; today's drop doesn't hurt, though, and Alvarado stays with her.
Broke her maiden on turf at PEN over 13 months ago but her form since has been spotty at best (5th in 2 turf tries since) with gaps in her schedule to boot; at least there's no layoff this time, no further drop, Velasquez stays and there's a decent work since to encourage and if she's able to move forward off that July 31 run, her first this year, she could have a say, though that's no small 'if', is it?
Regal Joanne
Lone turf try wasn't very pretty but that was also her debut and preceded a long layoff so you can be forgiving about that; the Street Bosses certtainly handle the sod and this gal has been facing tougher, too; off a big win at OP March 1 they thought enough to next try a stakes; that didn't go so well, then came 3 months off and a so-so dirt return at MTH last month so with that under her belt, today's drop and some nice recent works she's food for thought, even if that lone turf try wasn't too hot.
Red Code
Tough to be too enthused; yes, her lone win came in a turf sprint, at BEL in June 2012; trouble is, after next finishing a decent 4th for $20K in a turf sprint here in Aug. 2013 when claimed she wasn't seen again for 8 months and her 6 races since returning haven't been pretty at all; all that came on turf, too, so could it be whatever sidelined her so long has taken a lot of the run out of her, hmmmm?

Race 4

Winning Cause
Got up to defeat several of these while breaking from this draw in his local return to the lawn late last month; Pletcher colt has held his solid form for a while and he rallied into a moderate clip last time so if it doesn't figure to impact him much if pace doesn't develop in front of him; he's clearly the one they'll have to beat.
Bernie the Jet
Sprinter stretches out after failing to factor late in a one turn stakes heat here; while he returned to work ok from it he hasn't done much over the local sod and his most recent route spin wasn't very good; the way the barn has been going here we'll side with others on the win end.
Sat a good trip and wasn't beaten much when second in his downstate finale at one turn; barn boasts some sharp numbers with its stretchouts and though this guy hasn't been a serious player in either of ihs route spins, his 2 back G3 Hill Prince effort wasn't bad despite plenty of trouble; with a sharp local breeze in tow he's worth a look.
Rode the fence in the local Sir Cat when finishing behind a couple of these last time; he overcame a slow clip to beat older at Colonial Downs at this trip 2 starts back and maybe he's better second time over the course; new rider has had a big meeting and the price should again be big.
Elusive Son
Lightly raced colt was ambitiously placed first time off this low percentage outfit's claim and didn't have much to offer late after forcing the slow clip; he's shown he likes the green and maybe he'll be better if they take him back and let him make one run like he did in each of his first 2 starts, but he's still got some ground to make up on several of these.
One More Cat
He's been solid in each of his 3 surface starts and wasn't far off today's rail runner in his local course debut late last month; that foe did run right past him through a quick final fraction last time after this guy sat a ground saving spot, though; siding against him on the win end.
Outside drawn shipper gets a top pilot for his local debut after backing up late on the Northern California fair circuit in his return from 3 months on the shelf; colt does have a right to be tighter with that try behind him and he did earn a sharp number on the front end in a 2 turn mile at Hollywood Park 2 back; his other efforts suggest he may not be as good as that figure, but this field contains little early foot and they may be able to clear from here; one to run down.
Dads Caps
MTO is undefeated from 2 starts and each of the efforts earned impressive figures; front runner hasn't been out since the inner track meeting, but he's proven he can fire off drills and he's brd to adore the off going which he'll probably get if he goes; if the rains come they'll probably have to come and get him to win.
Triple Crown nominee makes his first start since New Year's Day when he earned a big number from tracking range in that Gulfstream Park route score; runner up from his maiden score and the third place finisher in his last have since earned 90 Beyers in their subsequent scores and the guy who beat him in his sprint debut was SP at one turn in Arkansas this winter; with some sharp recent moves on his tab he looks dangerous if this comes off the lawn.

Race 5

Giant Indian
Stalks from the rail then hopes to come up big in deep stretch off the bench; 1st time on SAR dirt today while reuniting with the November win rider after last 3 races where he beat 3 runners combined; latest winner was sharp posting an 88 Beyer speed figure in his next-out SAR-optional-claiming win before finishing 5th in a Grade 1 two starts later (95); graduated from similar post 1 in a sprint; lone-9F race saw him beat Point Taken who defeated him a few times before the recent-53-day absence.
Has never raced this far during prior 35 races; new trainer yields just 8% winners 1st-off-the-claim since 2012; the way he tired in the lane at 2F shorter than this stamina is a huge concern; beat the 3-back show runner who Beyered 88 in his next-out PRX-starter allowance win.
Dan and Sheila
Has fired very well on SAR dirt previously including being nosed for a 20K-price tag August, 2012, at today's distance over the track racing right on the lead; his strong-gate speed has been missing from recent starts inclding 2-back when no match for Tuvia's Force; exits his best Beyer since October; 4th different rider in as many races is not a good win angle.
Talk Therapy
Reunites with the December sloppy-track win rider who is 1-for-3 on this guy; exits a co-career-best Beyer when stalking the speed nicely in his FL stakes score; 1st time on SAR dirt today; he graduated in 2010 on SAR Inner Turf at 1 Mile; has never been this far and like many of the others wants to be forwardly placed then hopes to hang on late.
Point Taken
Best Beyer on a wet track; he benefits greatly being a closer in a raced with gate speed signed on; has to avange latest loss to Tuvia's Force; 3-time 2013 win rider lands on Giant Indian for this but the new pilot is popping 46% winners at SAR for the trainer; chased an 88-Beyer repeat winner next out.
Cinnamon Beach
Long layoff off the blowout win at today's distance switching trainers leaving a 2%-barn; defeated the runner-up finisher from last who Beyered 81 in his next-out AQU-optional claiming win; 10 minor awards on career and hasn't been in his very-best form off recent freshenings; would be a big factor here stalking the inside speed if able to fire back to last.
Tuvia's Force
Gets a good pace flow to rally into for this; in last was edged by a runner who finished 5th next out in a Grade 1 (95 Beyer); 2012 winner over the SAR-main track at today's distance for today's rider; his career-best Beyer was posted on a sloppy race track which he hasn't gotten since February, '12; is going to be tough to hold off late.

Race 6

She may have disliked the yielding course in the grass debut; 6/7 place horse graduated next out in a state-bred maiden $35K claimer, then ran out of the money; winner 6/7 repeated in a $35K optional, lost next pair; stablemate in last won the race; shorter trip could be just what the doctor ordered.
A couple of regressions since the decent try in May; she has some work to do to match top kin Ticoz, who won a couple of stakes, banked nearly $150K; in good hands, but once they start piling up 10 or 14 beats, the upside is hard to find.
Absolute Paradise
Overmatched last time, this is a much better placement; best Beyer did come in the turf sprint; will likely be in the picture late if at all.
Fly Solo
Second time for sale, California-based trainer has spotted them great all year; June 5 place horse took a MSW at CT next out, then ran out of the money; Roland Mackie was named as owner for the last race; rates upset glance.
Saratoga Sunrise
Must pick it up after 2 dull efforts; stakes winning 3 for 15 dam banked $80K; 2 of 3 siblings won, both banked 6 figures including a juvenile debut winner; that cashed thrice on grass; must hurry.
With Diamonds
Hot claim box item has talent and should love the drop; dam out of the money thrice; this is her first to race; look for rider to send hard and try to steal it.
Could see her pushing the splits, not sure she will be around at the end; beaten over 23 lengths in the lone grass effort; you get the feeling if she is look in the eye, she'll blink.
I'm Smokin Hot
Miss may be move relaxed with the blinks off here; 5 for 55 dam earned nearly $100K; 2 of 4 sibs won, 2 tried grass to no avail; barn awesome with this kind of dropper; if miss can run at all, she figures to show it here.
Locks of Gold
Consolidator 6 for 85 with first-time turfers; sire won twice at 2 including G1 Lane s End, never turfed; 2 for 30 dam won on grass once; all 3 siblings won; 2 tried turf but failed on grass; even if you figure she hated the rail, this is a tough ticket to sell.
Miss appears to be approaching her proper level; 2 exited the 6/23 race to graduate next out, the winner repeated in a state-bred N1X with a 70 Beyer; nearly 4 clear in last; major player.
Freshened and note wraps added for Maryland finale; SP 3 for 14 dam banked nearly $70K; the 3 siblings to race are a combined 0 for 9; in for $100K less than purchase price; must respect on the drop alone.

Race 7

Excuses can be made for those last two races; he may have bled July 6 - he added Lasix next out - and then last time he raced on the grass, perhaps not his surface; certainly that first race was promising; drop into a maiden claimer is encouraging, though wish she had more speed.
Indian Style
Work up with the drop in for a tag last time out; she really kicked into gear despite and was closing well in a race shorter than her best; bear in mind, however, that he raced in an off-the-turf race - such races are usually easier than those originally scheduled for dirt.
Political Farce
Performed well first off the claim for Rudy, but then bombed Aug. 1 - perhaps the result of catching the mud; this horse dropped badly once before (5/17), though; slow recent work; certainly capable of challenging if he runs to his potential.
Let's Have Us One
That was a pretty nice comeback Aug. 1, a third in a fast race, and though a length and a half behind Apex, this one may have more room to improve in his second start off a layoff; ran a fine second on this track last year; second selection.
Was slow to get going in his debut, breaking poorly and then failing to keep up with a fast pace; came on running late and should improve with experience and more distance; better on the way.
Rates on top, having been second in 4 of 6 starts - with the exceptions coming on Poly and in a race following a layoff; now he makes the third start of his form cycle, often a horse's best race; some might be concerned about the seconditis - but take note of the fine local efforts, loses to Palace Malice and Micromanag at 2.
Foggy Road
Showed life for a tag last time out, rallying to be second and finishing well clear of the rest of the back; it was against cheaper, however, and in general, horses moving up in claiming price in maiden claimers tend to underperform vs. those dropping; maybe a share with continued improvement.
Cowboy Prince
Did very well to hold second last time out, and though he was dog tired in the lane, he had every right to be after getting hounded into a 21 and change opening split; the pace in this longer race will be slower and Rosario can likely sit chilly on him and just let the horse's natural speed take him to the lead.

Race 8

Stay in Front
15K weanling, 45K RNA yearling, 70K 2yo after 1F work 10.2; sire 6-83 (7%) 2yo FTS, 16-106 (15%) 1st-turf; dam placed on turf (6K, 0-3 turf) with 0 winners from 2 runners (0-2 with 2yos, 0-2 turfers); 3rd dam multiple SP Homespun (30K); barn 4-9 (44%, $3.63 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS MSW turf sprint Spa; lots of turf on bottom of pedigree.
Full 2yo G1 sprint Dublin (438K); 1/2 G2 SP sprint Mike's Classic (328K, 0-2 at 2, 0-1 turf) by 11% 2yo, 6% 1st-turf sire; dam G1 sprint SW (716K) with 9 wnnrs/12 rnnrs (3-8 with 2yos, 2-6 turf); dam 1/2 G1 Missy's Mirage (838K, 2-4 at 2); barn 0-12 pst 5 yrs 2nd-out 2yos dirt/turf; 8/13 work match Broken Spell (Sun. R8); faced very swift filly dirt.
145K RNA yearling; 1/2 G1 turf SW Western Aristocrat (224K, 1-1 at 2, 1st-turf winner) by 11% 2yo FTS, 14% 1st-turf sire; winning dam (86K) has 1 wnnr/1 rnnr (won debut, 1st-turf winner); barn 1-3, $3.73 pst 5 yrs 2yo FTS MSW turf sprint Spa; 8/2 work match Bluegrass Flash (2nd FTS SMSW turf 67 Beyer 8/8); capable.
1/2 G3 turf SP Catch the Glory (101K, 0-2 at 2) by 11% 2yo FTS, 14% 1st-turf sire; dam won turf (64K, 1-5 at 2, 2-17 turf) with 5 wnnrs/8 rnnrs (1-6 with 2yos, FTS winner, 4-8 turf, 1 first-turf winner); dam 1/2 SP 2yo sprinter Puncher (320K, 0-1 turf); barn 1-15, $0.37 pst 5 yrs 2yo FTS turf (0-2 sprint); jock's 1st call; nice pedigree.
Zip On
55K yearling, 200K 2yo after 1F work 9.3; 1/2 SP Copy My Swagger (80K, 2-4 at 2) by 18% 2yo, 15% 1st-turf sire; dam won turf (13K, 0-2 at 2) with 4 wnnrs/5 rnnrs (2-4 with 2yos, 1-3 turfers, 1st-turf winner); dam full multiple G2 SP Tangled Tango (294K, 3-17 turf); barn 3-67 (4%, $0.22 ROI) past 5 years turf/dirt; very quick from the gate and bred for turf.
45K RNA yearling, 50K RNA yearling, 80K RNA 2yo after 1F work in 10.0; sire 18% 2yo, 15% turf; multiple SP dam (108K, 0-3 at 2, 4-14 turf) has 0 wnnrs/2 rnnrs (0-1 with 2yos, 0-1 turf); 3rd dam SP Thelma Jean (31K, 3-13 turf); barn 1-2, $2.20 pst 5 yrs 2yos turf adding Lasix; ahead of next-out 50-Beyer dirt winner Duff One 7/22; logical.
Sire 11-134 (8%) 2yo FTS, 22-206 (11%) 1st turf; dam G1 SW turf (486K, 1-2 at 2, 3-9 turf) with 1 winner from 1 runner (0-1 with 2yos, 0-1 with turfers): female family turf SW Mais Oui (France); barn 1-9 (11%, $2.24 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS MSW turf sprint; 6/25 work went .01 slower than Maleeh (91 dirt Beyer)
A Little Bit Sassy
220K yearling; sire 44-391 (11%) 2yo FTS, 70-496 (14%) 1st-turf; 1st starter from multiple SW sprinter (211K, 2-5 at 2, won debut, 0-1 turf); dam 1/2 multiple G2 SP Cargo (236K, 0-3 turf), SP sprinter Shinnecock (75K, 0-2 at 2, 0-3 turf): barn 1-3 (33%, $11.00 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS MSW turf sprint; jock's 2nd call; nice bloodlines.
90K yearling; sire 32-255 (13%) 2yo FTS, 24-277 (9%) 1st-turf; dam won sprint (121K, 1-7 at 2) with 1 winner from 1 runner; dam full G1 route SW Careless Jewel (1.0M); barn 2-21 (10%, $5.96 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS turf (0-7 sprint); 3 works match Clever Beauty (6th FTS MSW dirt 49 Beyer 8/11).
Camden Jane
4.5K yearling; sire 6-63 (10%) 2yo FTS, 2-49 (4%) 1st-turf; dam won route (74K, 0-1 at 2, 0-13 turf) with 2 winners from 3 runners (0-2 with 2yos, 0-2 with turfers); 3rd dam multiple SW Chatta (86K); barn 0-15 past 5 years 2yo FTS MSW turf sprint; 7/20 work matches Al's Gal (FTS - Sun. R11); 7/28 work .03 slower than Transit Express (FTS - Sun. R2)
Super Sky
80K yrlng, 235K 2yo after 1F work 10.1; 1/2 trf SW Dyna's Lassie (182K, 0-1 at 2), SW Princess Arabella (188K, 1-1 at 2), SP trf Cairo Six (48K, 1-5 at 2) by 18% 2yo, 12% trf sire; dam sprint winner (6K, 0-1 turf) with 6 wnnrs/7 rnnrs (3-5 2yos, 2-4 trf); dam full G1 SP route Invisible Ink (465K); barn 1-4, $1.50 pst 5 yrs 2nd-out 2yo MSW trf sprint; jock 1st call.
Best Friends
140K RNA yearling; sire 32-258 (12%) 2yo FTS, 41-314 (13%) 1st-turf; 1st starter from placed dam (29K, 0-1 turf); 2nd dam G1 SP router Unbridled Lassie (170K); barn 1-3 (33%, $14.79 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS turf (0-2 sprint); 8/5 work matches Sartorius (31 turf Beyer)
Sire 13% 2yo FTS, 13% 1st-turf; dam G3 route SW (347K, 1-3 turf) with 0 wnnrs/2 rnnrs (0-1 turf); barn 2-10, $2.92 pst 5 yrs 2yo FTS MSW turf sprint Spa; 2 works match The Careless Cat (5th FTS MSW turf 61 Beyer 7/22); 2 works match Tempers Flair (6th FTS MSW turf 36 Beyer 8/4); 8/12 work match Divorce Party (1st MSW dirt DEL 8/17).
Go West Marie
52K 2yo after 1F work 10.0; sire 12-83 (14%) 2yo FTS; dam SP sprinter (128K, 2-6 sprint) with 1 winner from 2 runners (1-2 with 2yos, 1-2 with sprinters); female family G2 sprint SW Time to Explode (247K); barn 0-21 past 5 years 2yo FTS dirt sprints.

Race 9

Ego Friendly
Coupled with In Harm's Way; not only still eligible for an NY-bred N1X but it's not like he's really been a factor at that level prior and now he's asked to step up in class; career-top Beyer (76) leaves him quite a ways behind the major players in here and he just ran over this track at this trip and his 4th-place finish, vs. softer, didn't exactly get the pulse racing.
Smooth Bert
Comes here in good form; trouble is, those last 2 nice efforts, a 3rd in the Mike Lee and 2nd in the NY Derby saw him well beaten each time by today's foe Amberjack; at least has tactical speed and his Beyers continue upward; also worked nicely 3 times since that NY Derby run; likely needs to run a race he hasn't run yet in order to challenge Amberjack but such a leap forward ain't impossible, right?
Just missed in the G3 Withers to very nice 3yo Revolutionary, and that earned him a shot at the G3 Gotham; alas, things didn't go well there at all (faded to 9th) and he was then not seen for 3 months; at least came back sharp with a big win at BEL and it's nice to see Schettino tosses him back into stakes ranks; some good works since encourage and the way he kept to his task in the 1 1/16 miles of the Withers says he can handle this trip, too.
No doubt the one to beat; won4 of his last 5, the lone loss coming at GP Jan. 1 when he was eased; after some time off, though, he came back to NY firing, winning 2 races at BEL and then romping in the NY Derby at FL; never run here but he's handled AQU dirt, AQU slop, BEL dirt, BEL slop and FL slop so odds are he'll do just fine over this footing; and the way he romped home in the 1 1/16 miles of the NY Derby says this trip should be no sweat.
In Harm's Way
Coupled with Ego Friendly; did some good work last summer/fall including a couple SPs vs. this caliber; however, things haven't gone so well this year; a good 2nd in the slop on AQU's inner Jan. 16 but his 4 other starts didn't exactly get the pulse racing and now he he's asked to face some toughies, do so at a trip he's never tried (farthest he's gone before is 1 mile) and do it after over 3 months on the bench; at least has speed so maybe they can try a theft...though Escapefromreality doesn't figure to just let him lollygag up front, does he?
Seventy Six
Won 2 of last 3 so he certainly appears headed the right way; that being said he still hasn't cracked the 80 mark on the Beyer scale and is facing a few who have gone well past that figure; at least his figs are trending the right way and his July 12 win at BEL was flattered as the horse he beat back into 2nd (Tycoon Cat) came right back to win; still, a big jump forward is needed if he's to be a major player.
Go Get the Basil
4th behind Amberjack and 'Bert in the NY Derby at FL July 20; trouble is, he was no threat at all (beaten 13 1/2 lengths); good news is there are at least a couple 90-plus Beyers showing, so he's capable on his best day of producing a pretty darn good run; 3 recent works and he's got experience at this trip.

Race 10

Slick Daddy
Sire wins with approximately 12% of his first-time starters and with approximately 14% of his turf starters, and dam was unraced; 4-year-old makes belated career debut off of a series of short works.
Disaster Relief
Don't like to see that he hasn't shown up with a competitive performance in his first two starts, but he hails from a barn that is having a strong year, and the drop in with maiden claimers certainly won't hurt him.
Fiddlers Chico
Noble Causeway has been a below average influence as a turf sire, but this gelding has shown enough and his turf starts to merit contender status against these, and it's interesting to see him making his first start with blinkers.
Horse Latitudes
This colt has a fine pedigree for turf and like the idea of him being ready to give a good account of himself while making his second start back from a layoff and dropping to his lowest level yet; there's a chance that the early pace in here will be slow to develop, and that would suit this runner nicely.
Tax Reform
Not thrilled with what he's shown us in his first three starts but he was last seen in a productive race; winner from latest returned to win next out at Mth on 7/28 going 1 1/16m over turf vs. 40-30k N2L claimers with a 76 Beyer and runner-up won next out at Mth on 7/21 going 1m over turf vs. MSW rivals with a 68 Beyer.
He sports the best last race Beyer Speed Figure in here and that effort wasn't even one of his better performances; feel that he has a live look to him in this spot while dropping in with making claimers for the first time.
Southern Match
Maker claimed this one in his own name for 25k out of his latest start, and not only is it worth noting what this barn has been doing after a claim, but also when they equip one with blinkers; Garcia has won with 15 of 50 (30%) mounts for this barn in 2013.
Cielo Soleggiato
He looks like the primary early speed in here along with Horse Latitudes and it looks like his connections are trying to pull out all the stops with a drop into the maiden claiming ranks and a rider switch to Rosario; going to look for him to be involved in the running throughout.
Brandy's Big Guy
Ommadon has been a poor influence as a turf sire but this gelding is out of a stakes winning dam who won 7 of 37 turf starts for 349k; regardless, he hasn't shown enough in his five turf attempts to help give him the look of a contender.
Hat Trick has been a fine influence as a turf sire and this gelding certainly deserves another chance to see what he can do over turf, especially when considering that he's making his first start for a barn that has a reputation for being able to jump up horses; prefer this one of the two Maker-trained starters in here.
It's fair to question the dirt form in the main body of this race and this will have to be considered an ideal spot for this gelding to make a serious bid at his first career win if this race gets taken off the turf.
Steve Sabella More than 1 year ago
race 9 tougher than it looks. sure amber looks like an improving winner but can he go 99 again? Escapefromreality needs to improve if he doesn"t get burned up by in harms way may go gate to wire. anyway $20.00 ex box 3-4. and 40 to win on 3. unless amber is even money or better will bet 4 to win.