08/18/2013 11:52AM

Closer Looks: Saratoga August 19, 2013


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Race 1

Slew's Brew
14K yearling by 29-335 (9%) 2yo sire; sprint-winning dam (94K, 1-1 at 2, 8-29 sprint) has 2 winners from 5 runners (0-2 2yos, 2-5 sprinters); ffamily barn multiple G1 turf SW Moorestyle (Europe, 654K); barn 2-12 (17%, $5.54 ROI) past 5 years 2yos MSW dirt sprints; well-beaten twice, but ran in fast-paced open maidens; expecting more speed here.
Sire 10-104 (10%) 2yo FTS; dam placed routing (19K) with 2 winners from 2 runners (0-1 with 2yos, 2-2 with sprinters); dam 1/2 G3 SW Cozzy Corner (303K, 0-1 at 2, 0-6 sprint), multiple G1 SW Riskaverse (2.1M, 3-6 at 2, won debut, 0-1 sprint); barn 1-7 (14%, $7.21 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS NY-bred MSW dirt sprints; lots of turf/distance in this pedigree.
Thug Daddy
40K 2yo after 1F work 10.4; sire 47-280 (17%) 2yos; 1st starter from turf-placed dam (6K, 0-2 sprint); dam 1/2 multiple SP Diamond Anchor (577K, 0-6 at 2, 2-22 sprint), SW router Daytime Promise (215K, 0-1 at 2, 0-1 sprint); barn 1-2, $1.90) past 5 years 2nd-time 2yo SMSW dirt sprint Spa; gave good account in debut after breaking poorly; respect.
Social Rebellion
Sire 4-49 (8%) 2yos; 1st starter from sprint winner (161K, 0-2 at 2, 3-19 sprint); female family G3 turf SP Forever Dancing (New Zealand); barn 3-46 (7%, $0.54 ROI) past 5 years 2yos dirt; ran into runaway winners both open starts MTH; barn's meet winner was 2yo NJ shipper; can improve.
So Lonesome
1/2 multiple SW No Spin (226K, 2-6 at 2, 1-2 sprint) by 8% 2yo FTS sire; dam G3 SP sprinter (53K, 1-1 at 2) with 3 winners from 3 runners (1-3 with 2yos, 2-3 sprint); dam 1/2 multiple SW Flaming Heart (245K, 1-5 sprint); barn 1-18, $0.18 past 5 years 2yo FTS MSW dirt sprint; 2 works match Hotspur Harriet (5th FTS 30K MCL 32 Beyer DEL 7/31)
Blue Collar Cat
120K RNA yrlng; 1/2 G3 SP 2yo What a Tale (128K, 3-8 sprint), 2yo SP router Anjorie (102K, 2-9 sprint), multiple 2yo SW Swag Daddy (153K, 1-4 sprint) by 13% 2yo sire; winning dam (39K, 1-8 at 2, 1-14 sprint) has 8 wnnrs/11 rnnrs (4-10 2yos, 8-10 sprint); barn 1-2, $14.80 pst 5 yrs 2yo NYB MSW dirt sprint; trouble-prone thus far; capable with clean trip.

Race 2

Received a useful tune-up sprint last month and the daughter of Wood Memorial winner Tapit should appreciate this extension in distance; fair pair of training track breezes during the last few weeks should help her cause.
Flores Island
In her favor is a solid effort at the course and distance where she lost ground at a critical point; although finishing underneath far too often, her latest local workout (her best yet), suggests she is ready for her breakthrough performance.
Lunar Surge
The trainer of this grey has enjoyed a banner meet; the filly's exceptional sire won 1 of 2 and 33K while the dam won 3 of 13 and 82K; among the winning siblings is 40K earner Thunder Canyon; if she is not tested by the stretchout sprinters today, she will prove very tough.
Sheer Drama
Exits the same sprint affair as Tapitinsilver and stayed on well; her sire won a G1 and 1.5 million while the dam was unraced; among the winning sibs is 2.74 million earner Big Drama, victorious in the Breeders' Cup Sprint; of major interest is the runner who defeated her in that first try, Dancing Afleet, who recently won the G2 Delaware Oaks; the selection based on that fact.
Keri Belle
Forgive the maiden voyage which involved a difficult beginning; the sire is Belmont Stakes winner Empire Maker who banked 1.98 million; the dam won multiple G3s and 374K; there are no winning sibs to mention; today's nine furlong assignment should pose no serious problem.

Race 3

Sweet Maxine
Her local debut is much better than the performance line implies as she was challenged from the opening bell by a runner who finished far back in sixth; the only 4-year-old in this field might be able to steal away or make first run on L B's Expression; the selection.
Absolute Beauty
Encountered trouble at more than one point in the running when returning in a turf route a month ago; turned in only modest breezes thereafter but would benefit if the pace is there is a significant pace meltdown today.
Hot Stones
Looked sharp in her local debut when overcoming trouble before drawing away at odds-on; might have to deal with a swifter early pace today but still seems a major contender especially with an expert rider in the irons.
L B's Expression
Has proven gate speed no doubt but her chances would diminish rapidly if unable to outsprint Sweet Maxine in opening moments; workout pattern seems to have regressed in recent weeks; difficult call overall.
Little Gabby Girl
Makes her first start under these silks after failing to fire earlier this month over a muddy surface; returns to statebred competition and perhaps that will enhance her chances of an upset; overcame a very bumpy beginning to tally 2 races back.
Run a Dubb Dubb
Has shown little preference for this oval and despite being a 3-time winner, she will likely be double digit odds once again; does return to the handling of Maragh who was aboard for that sharp placing 3 starts ago; cannot endorse for the top spot.
Make the Moment
Although cutting back slightly in distance today, she has one of the better rallying gears in this field; she finished strong in the last assignment, a race which featured 3 next-out winners; warrants inclusion in your exotic wagering plans, rain or shine.
She aimed way too high in that turf debut of 11 days ago; closed with a rush in the previous effort and is another entrant who seems reliant on a rapid early pace in order to have any realistic chance; needs perfect touch by Castellano.

Race 4

Sire was 2-for-2 on grass and is 6-for-30 with 1st-turf starters; this is her 1st race beyond 6F; the 1-for-3 dam's lone win was at 7F on dirt; sire won the Kentucky Derby and Preakness; she is a sibling to 3 turf winners including stakes winner Girlfriendontheside (2-for-4 turf, 66K); lone win was on the lead on a wet-main track so wouldn't mind this washed off the grass; seems the one to catch.
Tie Dye
Exits a career-best Beyer speed figure 39 days ago at today's distance when stalking the speed which is a trip that seems very possible today; has done her best work on BEL Widener grass and will make her 1st SAR Inner Turf start today for a 13%-winning fresh trainer since 2012.
Waltzing Cat
Some 1st-time imports fire big 1st time in the states then do not run back to that effort; she regressed badly 2nd time USA in a key race the winner and 4th-place finishers from last Beyered 85-78 in next-out SAR-35K-claiming and optional-claiming victories; hot-BEL trainer but others appeal more.
Graduated when sent short on dirt but stretches back out on grass for the class test facing winners for the 1st time; she was claimed off a high-win percentage which is not a good win angle however the new barn yields 23% winners 1st-off-the-purchase; figures to stalk the speedy Insolvent.
Troubled in latest to snap the winning streak; her 4%-fresh trainer leaps off the form at you off the loss to Tie Dye when screaming out for more distance but remains at 1 Mile; re-claimed 2-back then was too late on grass where she is winless noting the 3-for-9 dirt record.
Yielding-grass produced her lone victory and career-best Beyer at 7F; only 2-Mile races on turf were last-place finishes in stakes; 0-for-3 on SAR Mellon turf but tries the Inner for this; figures to be forwardly placed probably stalking the speed.
Chloe Bear
Races 1st time in a claimer off the fresh-10th-place finish on today's turf course at longer; lone win was a deep closer at longer than today's Mile so getting up in time is a serious issue; the 2-back winner repeated in a BEL-optional claimer with a 78 Beyer.
Lemon Song
Career-best Beyer in last when unable to finish well enough at 7F; figures to stalk the pace then hopes to come up big in deep stretch noting her lone win occurred on less-than-firm turf at longer than this; 1st time on SAR grass off the 43-day absnece so will be taking a wait and see approach.
Hot Tempo
Deep closer's lone win was at 1 Mile; races 1st time in a claimer off the bench for a 14%-fresh trainer; was outrun in last in a key race; the winner and 4th-place finishers from last Beyered 85-78 in next-out SAR-35K-claiming and optional-claiming victories.
Lady Utopia
Outsider as her lone grass start was on the lead and a last-place finish; off the long layoff today after chasing the runner-up finisher who Beyered 78 in a next-out AQU-20K-claiming win; flashes gate speed from time to time so view as a pace presence for part.
Liz Lemon
Lone win was on the lead and hopes the blinkers will help the gate speed for this; the runner-up finisher from last won next out with a 78 Beyer while the 4th-place finisher took a BEL-35K claimer with a 74 speed figure; Main Track Only entry 1st-time out for a new trainer ($2.97 ROI since 2012) with this angle; last dirt start was a dull effort fading on a wet-main track finishing behind the show runner who Beyered 75 in her next-out BEL-optional claiming win.

Race 5

Cape Cod Carol
Far from disgraced in the stake debut; miss brings a nice stalking style to the table but she has run 2nd the last 2 times she broke from the rail; the rail at this distance this meeting is an anemic 1 for 34 and clearly the worst slot so far; a slice may be the ceiling.
Beautiful But Blue
Pushed into the Grade 1 after taking the Fleet Indian last year and has not been able to close the deal since; one solid blowout since the choppy, pulled up performance in last; she has been handled by a number of today's foes in the past; try to get a good look at her on the track before thinking about taking a swing.
The winner of this race last year Risky Rachel was also coming off a second in a stakes before coming from a length off the lead to win going away with a 92 Beyer; the 6/15 winner repeated in the Grade 2 Honorable Miss here in July with a 95 Beyer; the tough beat in the G2 to close out 2012 screams off the canvas; backers have to hope somebody guns with rival on direct outside and softens that foe up for the late run.
Clear Pasaj
Several tough races in a row but that has been par for the course for this miss; nothing wrong with hitting the exacta in 11 of 14 and she obviously likes this layout; miss has more speed than she just showed and she hooks a group with limited zip; can't fault those that get on the bandwagon for the hat trick.
Only one poor effort and she had excuses that day; it was her first vs. winners and on the wrong surface; 7/21 place horse cashed next out here in a state-bred $14K optional with a 63 Beyer; she proved she could handle any kind of going in last; probably needs to improve to make it 2 straight.
Miss Valentine
Like the draw here; Ortiz sat a nice trip when 4th early when he was up for victory last year; she has gotten revenge on the speedball Clear Pasaj in the past and will be helped if that one doesn't get a lonely lead; legit threat in a pretty solid 6 pack.

Race 6

Ruthless Alley
The runner-up and show finishers from last posted 86-80 Beyer speed figures in next-out BEL-allowance and optional-claiming wins; 1st time on SAR Mellon turf off the 80-day absence for a 1-for-21 fresh trainer since 2012; will be taking a wait and see approach.
Flowing Mane
Re-claimed off the near-miss placement Thursday when favored then outfinished for the exacta; new rider is his 5th different pilot in as many races which is not a good win angle; lone win was accomplished at 1.5F shorter than this a career-best Beyer off a 143-day freshening but is back in just 4 days for this.
Professor Chaos
Took 4-1 betting money then graduated over today's turf course at the distance when rallying from 8th; deep closer needs a pace meltdown to score; win rider yields 43% SAR winners for the trainer since 2012; class test with winners for the 1st time is the major issue.
Uncle Mitcho
Good sign that he posted a career-best Beyer at today's distance over the SAR Inner Turf; mild rally but has to beat Ricochet Court who follows him here; rallied well from 4th to graduate at today's distance; reunites with the 2-back rider who piloted to his fade on a less-than-firm grass course which he hasn't handled in the past.
Coach A. J.
Try to catch me; more than 4 months away for a 9%-winning fresh trainer; the show and 6th-place finishers from last Beyered 91-85 in next-out BEL alw. and PRX-25K-claiming wins; he did not give the impression he wanted any parts of today's distance in last while the long layoff suggests we take a wait and see approach for this.
Summer Sands
Clamed off a high-win percentage trainer which is not a good win angle; lost to Flowing Mane on Thursday in his grass-debut defeat; lone win at this distance on dirt so would not mind this moved over to a fast-main track.
Logan Street
His lone win was off a 48-day absence and has been idle 93-days for this; 1-for-21-fresh trainer since 2012 does not add to the appeal; the winner and show finishers from last Beyered 73-70 in next-out BEL-25K-claiming and optional-claiming wins.
An Imaginary Road
Graduation win looks better since defeating the show runner who Beyered 71 in his next-out MTH-MSW triumph; the 2-back winner repeated in a MTH-40K claimer with a 76 speed figure; rallied from 5th to win last and will be helped along by the added distance for this.
Ricochet Court
Will be hard to handle if doesn't bounce off the new Beyer speed figure Top 1st time on SAR Inner Turf while racing at today's distance; stalking trip seems likely again; he has won at longer than this too; lone knock is his loss to Hardrocker on less-than-firm turf.
23%-winning fresh trainer off the 124-day layoff however the worktab for this is not very appealing; was screaming out for more distance in last and gets it here; lone win was last summer on SAR Inner Turf at today's distance; 7-0-1-2 record off the August, 2012, claim does not add to the appeal.
Eriugena (IRE)
26%-winning 1st-off-the-claim trainer makes him an automatic contender for win honors; lone win at today's distance on less-thsan-firm turf which was also the grass condition for his career-best Beyer; the 2-back winner repeated in a DEL alw. with a 74 speed figure.
19th race was the charm earning the SAR Inner-Turf diploma with a last-to-1st rally; had not done anything on SAR grass before latest but took betting money then rallied home like a wild horse; super-repeat barn hopes he can overcome the wide-ground losing trip.
Two Comma Guy
Exits a career-low Beyer when losing ground in a sprint; his 7F win showed a closing kick suggesting he may like longer; Main Track Only entry has never raced longer than 7F; sire captured 2-of-5 dirt routes including the Grade 1 Haskell at 9F.

Race 7

Strike Accord
Her lack of early speed is eligible to leave her with a lot of ground to cover when she hits the top of the stretch, and that's been the case in her two most recent races, but she's run well behind a couple of runaway winners in those starts; she looks like a solid fit with these.
Flirtatious Spring
She's been beaten by today's rival Strike Accord in her two most recent races, but if she can regain the form she displayed in April and May, she'll be in with a chance to turn the tables on that foe in this one; Ortiz has won with 15 of 50 (30%) mounts for this barn in 2013.
Invading Humor
Feel that she has to be viewed as an intersting player in here when seeing the way her form has improved since moving to turf, and even though she's only sprinted up until now, her pedigree suggests that she might welcome added distance.
A Prettydixie
Not sure that her best effort is quite strong enough to come out on top against these, but when seeing that she's recorded a combined nine 2nd and 3rd place finishes from 15 starts, it might not be a bad idea to keep her in mind for a spot underneath in the exotics.
Hlao Roo
She's capable of better than what she showed in her latest start and note that she nearly pulled off an upset in a stakes in her second start over this turf course in 2012; Velazquez saw fit to take the call last time and now Rosario shows interest.
Mela Dramatically
Not that she doesn't have the talent to run with these, but she does seem to be her own worst enemy; she's often head strong and seems to have a knack for inviting trouble; on a positive note, Prado does seem to get along with her better than any other rider.
Mighty Reward
She's yet to run a race that is fast enough to suggest that she can get over on the top contenders in this spot; perhaps she can be a part of the early pace picture, but a much improved overall performance is needed for her to stay involved in the running through the lane.
My Four Rewards
Her two most recent races have been improved performances but she's going to need to dial it up another notch or two if she's to prove to be the one in this spot; looking toward others.
Joy Seeker
Heatseeker has been a fine influence as a turf sire and this miss stepped her game in a dramatic way when sent out over turf for the first time in her latest start; she's meeting up with winners for the first time, but feel that she commands contender status based on what she showed us in her turf debut.
This filly has a good deal of turf in her pedigree and she flashed some talent in her first two career starts; this was once a very strong turf barn, if not the best out there; over the past five years they've won with 45 of 250 (18%) turf starters, and over the past two years they've won with 3 of 52 (6%) turf starters.
Mary P. Jones
Have a tough time giving her the nod for the top spot when it appears that she's at her best at distances shorter than today's one mile assignment, but if she draws in, her early speed can play a role in the way that this race shapes up.
She has a fine pedigree for turf but her recent form hasn't been anywhere near strong enough to suggest that she can get the job done against these; she is another sitting on the Also Eligible list who owns the early speed to change the shape of this race.

Race 8

Sundae School
Cozy slot for grinder this time; backers can point to the fact there is a turf winner in the family and kin Marathon Moon won nearly $100K; trainer has been firing with everything; back to the original pilot; can't toss.
The Blonde Peque
Educated in Jersey, has every right to build on the effort; stakes winning 9 for 25 dam earned nearly $200K, won 5 times on grass; this is her first to race; out in post 9 at Monmouth, not the place to be on that course; seems primed.
Crushed both times at this level; hung wide in last when inching toward the winner and the show horse 5/17 graduated next out in a MSW at Calder with a 65 Beyer than ran out of the money at Del Mar in a state-bred $25K optional; there is nothing but winners in the tree including turf winner and over $100K earner Tiz Ready; 3 of the last 4 turf efforts have been okay, but this is a new ballgame.
Magical World
Fact she ran huge for patient barn in the debut speaks volumes; miss has a chance to show more speed with the blinks here; Grade 1 winning 5 for 12 dam earned over $1.3 million, never turfed; 2 of 3 siblings won including double turf winner and near $190K earner Trophy Wife; miss looks live.
Winning Scoop
Maybe she was intimidated by the rail in last; G3 winning 5 for 15 dam earned nearly $350K, lost only turf out; 3 of 4 sibs won; one won 4 times on grass; top kin Coolwind took a couple of stakes, earned almost $300K; this one should improve.
Pleasant Cat
Came back running, maybe she was just a tad short; backers can bank on fact 2 siblings banked 6 figures and handled grass; tab 2nd best of 48 spin since the last effort; far too sharp not to take seriously.
Kept legs moving with the spin on the 12th since the tough beat; chances will be enhanced if a speed duel occurs; she should be around the wire once again.
Judy G
Over 3 clear in the tough beat last time; winner 5/23 repeated in a $65K optional with a 79 Beyer for Linda Rice; could see her sitting a nice stalk and pounce trip; contention goes deep.
Industrial Policy
Miss has teased several times, is due to hit paydirt; both siblings won multiple races in the minor leagues but not on grass; Brown continues to fire with consistency and note rider is 4 for 7 for barn in the last year of so; nice.

Race 9

Path of Dreams
She has a strong pedigree for turf and bettors were fooled a little bit when she broke her maiden in her latest start as John V. landed on a McGaughey tained filly in that race; although her latest race has only produced one next-out winner, a number of horses have run well out of that contest; she's worth a look in her first attempt against winners.
She's another with a solid turf pedigree and she's run well in three of her first four starts; it might be worth noting the presence of Saez aboard the Pletcher-trained miss in here, but won't be surprised to see her forwardly placed from the break and involved in the running throughout.
Lady of Gold
Tough to argue with anything she's been doing lately and she was a sharp runner up behind a good looking Clement-trained 4-year-old filly in her turf debut two races ago, and the 1-2 finishers from her latest start were entered in the G2 Lake Placid here on Sunday; must consider.
She earned a G3 stakes placing over turf in her final start as a 2-year-old and she's run well in back-to-back starts to begin her 3-year-old season; Pompa-owned filly is still plenty eligible to have her best races in front of her.
Broken Trust Fund
Five-time winner has earned four of those wins over turf and she's been on top of her game in her three starts in 2013; she might not boast the potential of some of the others in here, but she commands respect based on the level that she's performed at this year; 3rd finisher from latest won next out at AP on 7/6 going 5 1/2f over turf vs. 80k OPC's with an 85 Beyer.
Dance With Gio
Stakes placed miss is another multiple winner to look at in here and she's shown the ability to step up with an effort that is strong enough to get her into the mix against these; it looks like the early pace will be honest enough to give her late running style a fair shot.
Sire wins with approximately 13% of his turf starters and dam won 2 of 13 starts for 75k, including 1 of 11 turf starts for 66k; this filly is a 1/2 to Roeddon (2-5, 31k over turf); can't ignore the presence of Velazquez aboard another in here, but keep in mind that Lezcano has won some big races aboard Wise Dan for Lopresti over the past year.
Rock On Baby
If you're looking for the best last race Beyer Speed Figure, here it is, and the runner up from that race returned to win next out here on 8/12 going 1 1/16m over turf vs. 20k OPC's with a 78 Beyer; she's tough ignore based on what she's done since moving into this barn.
She's Not Lazy
She showed up with a much improved performance after a layoff in her latest outing, but looking at this as a tough spot for her return to New York, and it might not be a bad idea to make her prove that she can run with these.
Strike Charmer
She looked like she had a good deal of ability in her career debut, and even though she didn't follow that race up with a win at second asking, it certainly didn't take her long to clear the maiden hurdle; she's by a top turf sire and her dam was a stakes winner while winning 2 of 6 turf starts for 121k; feel that there is a lot of upside here.
There are a number of horses in the main body of this race who are interesting over dirt, but this would still be a decent spot for this filly to land in; runner up from latest won next out at Bel on 7/5 going 7f over turf vs. 25k OPC's with an 82 Beyer, and Maragh has won with 6 of 16 (38%) mounts for this barn in 2013.

Race 10

Bi Light of Day
Note it took her over a month to post a recorded drill after the debut; she was gaining a bit after the eventful start; 4th finisher in the debut took a MSW next out, 7th finisher was 2nd a neck in a maiden $16K fray and the winner repeated in an N1X here 8/3 with a 70 Beyer; 6 for 29 dam was a double stakes winner, banked over $300K, was turf only; the half bro to race took one sprint, was 2nd in best turf try; must hurry.
Ivana Pucker
Shuffled in the debut and never got untracked; 2 for 22 dam never turfed; lone half bro to race took on race, a route, never turfed; clever barn due for a bit of luck, check out the 16 slices this meet.
Silent No More
At least she was keen to run early in last; 5 for 21 dam banked nearly $60K, never turfed; lone half bro to race was out of the money twice; could see her gunning early but you get the feeling if she is looked in the eye, she'll blink.
Hot Rendezvous
Finally off the rail as miss regressed with the blinks last time; 6/20 show horse graduated next out and the winner that day clicked vs. state-bred N1X foes, then was 3rd beaten just over 3 in a $100K stakes here 11 days ago; key off race two back and she's a threat.
Canela Rose
Griffinite one for 9 with first-time turfers; sire won twice at 2, took a G3, banked nearly $350K, was out of the money in only turf out; dam was 0 for 12; one sibling lost only start, the other was 0 for 12; nice blowout on Friday should have her on her toes.
Uman Candy
Split cast in ordinary debut; 2 for 15 dam was route only and out of the money in only turf out; all 4 siblings won; all won on grass; the best was probably Jonrah, who took 3 of 12, banked $135K; got a feeling we have not seen the best of this one.
Curlin N Twirlin
Top Beyer came off a similar layoff and with the blinks, just like today; not turf success in the family but kin Wacky for Love was Grade 2 placed, earned nearly $250K; could slip in for a section.
Double flopper for a tag has to step up; can't fault those that are gun shy after 5 chalk flops; would think long and hard before taking too short a number.
Stock Fund
After 19 beats it's not easy to find the upside; she has not lost this many times because she has a heart of gold; she has made a pretty good living without winning but just has lacked the ability to get the ink on the contract; would be careful here.
Absolute Paradise
Multiple beats for a tag and then the fiasco last time; not good; she has the three races to draw from but it appears she is much more comfortable when up for sale.
Utopian Wife
Could have sulked after the slow start but she got rolling late in a decent opener; stakes winning 9 for 34 dam banked over $200K, was 2nd in best turf try; both siblings won multiple times; both tried grass to no avail; one banked nearly $250K; a clean break and it could be a whole new ballgame.
Courageous Karen
Improving a bit, maybe she just needed experience and grass; with her style and the ability to be there early and dictates things, she is always dangerous.
Rosalie's Pleasure
If you figure she was just dead short in last, you can easily build a case for a move forward; 3 for 18 dam won only attempt on grass; several grass winners in the tree including near $100K player Laurens Go Go; major threat if she gets a chance to suit up.
Love Scat
Runner was tabbed at 30-1 on the morning line Sunday at the shore in a $22K optional on grass when an also; his is a tough sell as she has never been in the money; bothered in the last three and she can flash speed if in the mood; the loss in the $10K maiden seller screams off the page; passing.