07/30/2013 10:55AM

Closer Looks: Saratoga August 1, 2013


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Race 1

Royal Fling Shot
Like layoff horses? Here you go; 6YO Sheppard trainee hasn t done much wrong over jumps with three starts, a second and a win; toss try on soft ground; been working for this, but really can t see it; watch for next time.
Pleasant Woodman
Will be in front for a while, but strategy rarely works at Saratoga and he s struggled in tries vs. winners; needs big improvement.
All Together
Hello old friend; vet makes his fourth Spa meet (and seventh start); won here in 2011 and third in A.P. Smithwick last summer; labored since, but Fisher went to flat sharpener and could produce revival; huge experience edge; must turn back time; demand price.
Albany Road
Marathon flat king at Presque Isle last year converted to jumps with three maiden tries this spring; each was an improvement, capped by solid Fair Hill win; went back to Erie and was second at 1 5/8 miles; goes jumping again in tough spot for first try vs. winners.
Savvy players will note PW track abbreviation where he broke maiden; stands for Percy Warner Park, location of Grade A Iroquois meet in Nashville look for it, always; hard to judge where he stands but that s a good maiden race; star pedigree; player.
Prime Prospector
Maiden claimers don t normally translate to Saratoga, but better than he looks on paper; loads of pedigree and good flat form; solid barn had a big-priced winner here last year; been training here; do not ignore.
Ballet Boy (IRE)
Back-to-back DNFs to start 2013 after winning stakes last season; best jump efforts came on same course, but also gave future star Demonstrative a fight two seasons ago; solid barn and top jock; back to work.
Bluegrass Summer
Weak (as far as Sheppard standards) pair in here for trainer, but might not matter; 5YO part of barn for awhile, finally got to jumps this spring with win at Stoneybrook (B meet); second try was just OK; tangled with Lea on flat here last year; doubt you ll get 12-1.
Been at this awhile with just one jump win in sporadic career; won jump debut in 2008 and lost next 13; best efforts have put him in the mix a few times and will need one again; capable of hitting board.
Staying On (IRE)
Steadily hinted at more to offer, but still chasing second jump win; usually pulls too hard early; will get every chance under Dalton; beaten less than 5 lengths by first-week winner Martini Brother; good enough; will he rate?
Certain Swagger
Fisher? Big price? Pay attention; 4YO with solid spring form could be sitting on good effort; race in May came on tricky right-handed course some horses like and others hate; Crosse flies in from UK for ride.
Network News
Impressive maiden win at Parx last out earned chance here; gets much tougher assignment, especially if he tries to wire field again as others figure to make plays for lead too; Voss barn not as deep as it was, but contender if repeats maiden breaker.
Saint Dynaformer
Tried Colonial turf stakes, with All Together, as a prep for this; toss that and most recent jump start and he looks better; ran well to be second at big price here last year; better at 2 3/8 trip.
Orchestra Leader
Trainer has won these before, but jump form has been dreary this year; two flat starts were OK and could produce sharper effort if he draws in.

Race 2

Hunt Ball (IRE)
Super talented English chaser with major wins and loads of class; makes U.S. debut for Sheppard; has had plenty of time to acclimate local drill should help; prepping for Turf Writers and learning our game; huge class edge.
Meganisi (IRE)
Recent import for jump s leading owner; hurdle wins came on softer ground than he ll get today; trainer used to ride champion Good Night Shirt so knows a good horse; gets in light; lots of unknowns in tough spot.
As good as there is in game; won twice here last summer, and went on to win G1 Colonial Cup to cap standout season; determined, powerful score in 2013 debut going 3 miles; cuts back today; gets rematch with Divine Fortune and must give heaps of weight; beat him and you win.
Divine Fortune
Not quite Affirmed-Alydar, but has an ongoing rivalry with Demonstrative; beaten a hard-luck neck (at level weights) in Iroquois; won this in 2010 and 2011; hasn t lost much but will need fastball to turn back Demonstrative s late run; best if he can sit just off the lead and get first run; huge weight shift from Iroquois; beat him and you win, too.
Spy in the Sky
Last year s winner with wild late run and unorthodox last fence shows up again; will be big price again too; really came into form last summer but playing catch-up this year; needs lots of pace up front but not sure he can outkick Demonstrative.
Mr. Hot Stuff
Now this is a second career; veteran started in Derby and Belmont for WinStar in 2009; solid jump career going despite missing last year; first try vs. open company didn t go as planned (soft turf?) and water even deeper today; plenty talented; Young will deliver patient ride; upset potential.
Italian Wedding
Knocked off Demonstrative here two summers ago, but middle-of-the-roader who has picked spots; ends long layoff; coupled with Divine Fortune but would be 15-1 without him.
Brave Prospect
Two seconds here last summer show he can handle speed of Saratoga jumping; taking huge step up from anything he s ever done; will sit close and try to stretch favorites; outsider could round out a big trifecta, at best.

Race 3

One of several in this field dropping from special weights, he tries this common distance for the first time; has met some talented opposition already including Micromanage, third in the recent G1 Haskell; should fare much better at this level.
Deadicated Deal
Just missed the show in his local debut, a distinct improvement over downstate performances; one-run type would benefit if there is a more intense early pace here and is the only 4-year-old in the field; should be a late presence.
Let's Have Us One
Despite the gaps in the profile, he looks like a good fit against this group and has the all-important prior experience at this oval; clearly beaten at Oaklawn by Black Bear who thereafter won an optional claimer earning a 94 Beyer in the process.
Displayed a bit more prompting ability in the last run at Belmont when jammed up between rivals; also upgraded in the most recent half-mile drill; still has much work to do today as he will likely have to rally from far back.
Perfect Danger
One of the main speeds here, he was involved with rapid fractions in the last pair; the winner of his last, Mentor Crane, came back to run a wild race in the G2 Amsterdam here on Sunday (watch the replay); dangerous if dissuading Political Farce.
Political Farce
Ran a solid race in his first start under these silks and seems more than capable of being the one to make first run on Perfect Danger; previous pair of efforts involved demanding speed duels; draws an ideal post now and has legitimate money prospects.
Beginner was sired by Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner War Pass who banked 1.58 million (his offspring have scored in 5 of 34 initial starts); the dam won 3 of 4 and 104K (all victories as a 2-year-old); winning siblings include 42K earner Island Style.

Race 4

He's starting to get the look of a professional maiden with 7 seconds from 10 starts and he had every chance to win his latest but couldn't get the deal done; horse that beat him two back won his next start in a $14K first-level optional race for NY-breds with a 78 Beyer Speed Figure; an obvious contender but it's probably better to use him underneath than on top.
One More Chief
That was a nice debut in the same race Thnxtomyuncle exits and he's had a couple of decent works over this surface so it wouldn't be surprising to see him take a big step forward with a race behind him; first foal out of a mare that won 3 races and earned $26K could take them a long way if he breaks alertly from his inside post; contender.
He had a couple of decent efforts over the inner track at Aqueduct but he's never actually been in a sprint and he's been off since he had a couple of dull races in late March and early April; that was a pretty slow work here July 22 and the barn's recent stats with horses coming back from this kind of break has us leaning in other directions.
Escape to the Moon
Debuts for Brown who doesn't usually have them fully cranked first time out - 6 percent with first time starters the past five years; he's by Malibu Moon who is a solid 14 percent with first time starters and he's out of a stakes-placed dam that won 5 times and earned $176k; lone sibling has a win on turf and dirt; this is a tough distance to debut at so we're going to pass.
Native Singer
It sure looked like Castellano had a lot of horse under him on the turn but this guy came up a bit empty in the stretch in his second start at Belmont July 4; he still finished a clear second and he did have a small excuse after breaking in the air; nice work here July 22 and Galluscio is off to a strong start at the meet; he should get a great trip from either on the lead or sitting just off One More Chief and he could be a handful cutting back to 7 furlongs in his third start; the pick.
Mr. G. Zee
Homebred dropped into a maiden claiming race in his latest and he ran a big race to finish second going this distance for the first time; the Beyer Speed Figure came in a bit light compared to what he will need to contend for the top spot, however; the good news is Rosario keeps the faith despite the jump in class and the barn has solid recent stats with horses returning in this time period; consider for the exotics.
He's been in the mix in his last four but he really wasn't a threat to Native Singer in his latest and we're expecting Native Singer to take a big step forward in just his third start; he could improve as a first-time Lasix user and if you toss his first three races going shorter he's been pretty consistent; don't see him winning this but it is easy to imagine him making a late run to work his way in the exotics.
King Wando
We didn't learn much about his ability on the main track when he beat one in his debut running over the turf in a $25K maiden claiming race at Belmont July 5; 4 of his 5 older siblings are winners but they all were a lot better going longer including In Te Domine who won a $100K NY-bred stakes on turf; he'll look better when he stretches out so we're going to pass today

Race 5

He has some early speed to employ from his rail post position and the 73 Beyer Speed Figure he earned for his latest effort represents the best last race figure in this field; he has the look of a top contender while taking a realistic drop in class.
Half-brother to multiple graded stakes placed Banned (5-10, 599k, including 5 of 9 over turf for 597k) looks like he fits right in with these as he gets ready to make his first stary in the maiden claiming ranks; it's Ramsey and Maker and Rosario has won with 40 of 111 (36%) mounts for Maker in 2013; third finisher from latest won next out here on 7/26 going 1 1/16m over turf vs. 50-40k MCL's with a 72 Beyer.
Trusted Choice
His one start over turf wasn't a bad run and he's had a couple of starts to shake off some rust since needing time off between February 2012 and May of this year; he has the early speed to get involved in the early running and like to see a strong turf rider in Lezcano get the call.
Smart Power
Not wild about what he's shown us in his first three starts, but it is interesting to see a 5f bullet workout over the Saratoga training track turf in preparation for this, and it's also nice to see him making back-to-back starts for the first time in his career.
Mr. Style
He's another dropping in with maiden claimers for the first time and he has enough early speed to get himself forwardly placed right from the bell; runner up from latest won next out at Bel on 6/5 going 7f over turf vs. 60-50k MCL's with a 79 Beyer.
Omos Journey
He clearly has to step up his game in order to threaten the top contedners in this spot but he is making his first start for a new barn and note the addition of Lasix and blinkers for this; nevertheless, others entice more.
Horse Latitudes
This colt has plenty of turf in his pedigree, but he's also had a number of starts to show us what he's all about and he's really struggled to maintain a forward gear through the lane in his races; without the prospect of a slow early pace, this looks like a tough spot for him.
Rapid Burn
This is the lowest level he's been entered at to date and he earned a career best Beyer Speed Figure in his latest outing while sporting blinkers for the first time; this barn has been very live at this meeting and they have a strong contender to send out in this one.
Since a decent performance going seven furlongs in his career debut, his form hasn't materialized, and he's going to need to have to be ready for a much better effort if he's to have a say in the outcome against these; viewing him as being an early pace factor only.
Carjon Carjon
The long layoff alone is a reason to look in another direction, and it's not like his form was all that encouraging prior to the time off; add in an outside post, and it's probably best to just watch this one to see what he might be capable of going forward.
Giant's Time
Sire wins with approximately 15% of his turf starters and G2 winning dam won 2 of 14 starts for 350k, and she didn't make a turf start; it's a little interesting to see new connections go right to turf with him after a 25k claim.
Streets of Fire
This race doesn't necessarily have to fall apart if it has to be taken off the turf and this gelding will likely need a career best effort if he's to get the better of this field; not to mention that to this point his better races have been run over turf.
Boogie Too
He ran well over a sloppy sealed surface at Gulfstream Park over the winter and he looks like he'll be a decent fit with this bunch if this race has to be taken off the turf; note that this will be his first dirt start wearing blinkers.
His two dirt starts have been his two best performances and he's another Ramsey/Maker runner signed on in here with Rosario named to ride; not going to be shocked if this colt shows up and gives a solid account of himself.

Race 6

Night Maneuver
Looks like Contessa bought at the right time; claimed him for $62,500 June 22 when this guy posted a neck win for a smart 99 Beyer; but that was just the start - he then came here, blasted a strong bunch for a 104 Beyer; 2 for 3 here so you already know he likes this place, and now it appears he's become the horse his original connections thought they would have when he was a SW at 2 in 2011; that 104 Beyer puts him right there with these, but it still is the toughest spot he's ever seen and another 104 Beyer may not be enough to win this.
Saratoga Snacks
Pretty good race, eh?; this guy has been a win machine and comes off a smashing Shy Groom win at BELJune 30 beating a couple of today's foes; not only did he get a career-top Beyer (105) but that was his first run so he may well even move forward; speed to be in it from the start, but he showed again June 30 he's no need-the-lead type; one potential stumbling block: today he's the one giving weight to a few of these, not the one getting.
Wonderful old warrior; hey, you don't win 20 of 39 by accident; won this race in a romp last year, but this year's renewal may be tougher; continues to fire bullets and has been freshened since a nice SW at BEL June 1; all that being said, Beyerwise he's just a smidge slower than he was in the past whereas 'Snacks is getting faster so he's got his work cut out for him to get win No. 21 - but he deserves a round of applause when he comes back to be unsaddled regardless of the result.
Mine Over Matter
Hard-hitting veteran was 3rd in this last year; trouble for him is he's been chasing Saginaw for the past couple seasons and then in the Shy Groom at BEL June 30, when he gets away from Saginaw and posts a career-top Beyer (102) he runs into Saratoga Snacks; now must deal with both those guys today; at least his Shy Groom says he's good as ever and he has beaten Saginaw before; for all his success, though, not much of it has come here (1 for 7).
B Shanny
Set the pace in the June 30 Shy Groom vs. many of these but weakened late to be 3rd to 'Snacks and 'Matter; that was his first start in a couple months so he's eligible to improve, and the change of venue could be key, too; after all, his BEL form has been so-so but he's done very nicely here (2 for 2); Shy Groom run shows he's not outgunned and there are 2 super works since; figures to go out there and dare 'em to catch him once more and if by some chance he can shake clear of 'Snacks and Saginaw, well, you get our drift.

Race 7

Kingsford Drive
Stretches out and switches surfaces on the class rise in his first start off this barn's claim; gelding has run ok on the green in the past and maybe he's able to make the lead from this inside draw; may be better on other surfaces and 2 turns is a question, but he's been very good since returning from the mid-winter freshening and looks to be a big threat in this spot.
Liquidity Trap
Just missed as the chalk in his first start off the barn's claim in his second start back from the break; he figures to get a much better pace setup in front of him than he saw last time and that should onlt help intensify his late kick; they'll have him to beat.
Elder Skatesman
Statebred had little impact at a big price when in for half this tag on the Belmont dirt last time; 10 year old is winless in 11 local sod spins and there's not much to suggest he'll take the needed big step forward to contend in this spot; longshot.
Vindication Now
Beat limited winners handily at Churchill last time and now he'll tackle better in his local return; 4 year old breezed well over a wet main track here last week so he looks to retain his sharp form; tougher task in this spot, but if he's able to run back to that last score he's a contender.
Silent Pipe
Speedy 7 year old ran well to hold second money in a 5 horse field on the Indiana Downs main track; expecting this 11 time winner will be able to find a spot close to the top in this one, but though he's run ok on the lawn he's yet to win over the surface; maybe for a share but siding with others for the top spot.
Wayward Sailor
Took a step back while faltering in his local return on Opening Day; he should have plenty of bottom from the recent routes for the cut back to this 8 panel trip and he does have the lick to secure a good spot from the outset in here; pilot aboard for his most recent score (nearly 8 months ago) gets back in the saddle today.
Last out claim took a big step back off the wide trip in his downstate finale; low profile barn does boast a recent winner with this type and this gelding does pack a solid kick when right; ran well sprinting over the course last summer and appears capable of getting in the exotics mix in this spot.
Gamblin Fever
Late runner has settled for minor awards 5 times as often as he's won in his career; he was troubled early from the fence in his local return last week and maybe the move outside helps, but given his style he again looks to have a lot of work in front of him in the lane.
Draws outside for his first crack on the lawn in quite some time; 6 year old takes a big drop in company for this and he was beaten just 2 lengths in his lone grass try a few years back; there is some turf in his pedigree as the dam won a couple of times over the footing overseas so maybe he takes to the stuff second time on it; can't be overlooked.
MTO likes it wet and he did run ok sprinting over the local main track last summer; his early foot figures to be on display for a barn whose limited starters have come to run at the stand; dangerous from the close range if the rains come.
Blue Creek
MTO goes first off the claim by an outfit that excels with this type right back; colt ran away from cheaper over a wet track downstate prior to the freshening and he packs a pretty solid one turn kick; contender if this gets moves to the main track.

Race 8

Attractive Ride
Last win when loose on an easy lead at longer; did not show the big gate speed sprinting 2 back; he's raced 1st the 1st call in 5 of last 7 starts so not doubt what he wants to make the lead playing catch me if you can; owns his career-best Beyer speed figure on SAR dirt.
Marilyn's Guy
Off the bench with a less-than-dazzling worktab on display for his 1st SAR dirt start; found himself on the lead in a 3-horse field in last but figures to save ground and stalk the pace for this; have seen his very best form at longer than this so may see best form 2nd time off the bench at longer?
Massive-class drop after finishing 4th in a Grade 2 when last seen now up for sale today; the 0-for-7 long-layoff trainer since 2012 does not add the appeal; this late runner is likely to need longer than 7F to see very-best form; a good sign that the 3-time win rider comes right back off the bench for his 1st SAR start; scary-late punch if ready.
Demon's Deputy
Wild Target beat him over the track last summer while he comes into this far off best form posting 4 straight off-the-board finishes; 12%-winning layoff trainer suggests we might see better 2nd time off the bench; willing to forgive 2-back 1st time on a wet-main track when defeated by the runner-up finisher who Beyered 90 in his next-out BEL alw. win.
Adds blinkers after being away and eased for the 2nd time in 4 losses; the runner-up finisher from last Beyered 80 in his next-out BEL-optional claiming win; the 2-back winner repeated in a 73K event with a 105 speed figure then repeated the 105 Beyer taking a Grade 3 two starts later; 1st-time Maragh riding taking 2-of-8 for the trainer at SAR since 2012.
Wild Target
Adds blinkers a 20%-win angle for the trainer; way off best form heading into this; best Beyer was in the slop so a wet track would play right into his strength; graduated at SAR right off the 46-day absence but is racing back in just 26 days for this.
St Liams Halo
11-week absence since being claimed by an 0-for-8 first-off-the-purchase trainer since 2012; has a 4F-bullet workout for this but would need a massive Beyer boost to land a share; best Beyer was going long on a wet track; others appeal more coming off the long winless drought.
Sam Sparkle
12%-winning fresh trainer; he hasn't won since 2011 with an 0-for-4 SAR dirt record he seems like an outsider for this; last win was a co-career-best Beyer when closing in a 4-horse field but recent form suggests we take a wait and see approach,
Romancing the Gold
Mixed reviews from his 1st two races off the claim exiting his lowest Beyer since April, 2012, in his 1st-SAR dirt race; guess we could toss his last start when troubled catching a wet track; 4-for-10 on fast dirt so seems capable of bouncing back with a good one.
De Price
Fired 2 good ones over the track but comes off his lowest Beyer since November when he disappointed at short odds again; last win was via DQ and with 14 minor awards on his resume his best race likley results in a supporting role.
Irish Lion
Entered July 13 SAR 1st 1 1/8 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up | CLAIMING ( $20,000 ) | Purse: $40,000; the 2-back winner made it 3 in a row with an 84 Beyer; the 3-back win and show finishers Beyered 105-103 in next-out BEL-147K stakes and optional claiming wins.
Fiddlers Afleet
Exits his lowest Beyer since October; today is into a race where he can be claimed from off the stakes losses; super-fresh trainer suggests a much-better effort is on the way; returns to SAR dirt where his record is strong and his last SAR start was a stakes victory at today's distance.
Troubled from post 10 in his 1st SAR start and should move forward 2nd time over the track; his 1st race off the claim was a career-best Beyer; the 3-back runner-up finisher Beyered 78 in his next-out BEL-optional claiming win.
Casual Trick
Defeated one runner combined in last 3 losses; the winner from last repeated in a MTH-76K stakes with a 98 Beyer then made it 3 in a row with a 95 Beyer taking a 107K event; the 3-back winnner repeated in a CD-optional claimer with a 97 speed figure; lone SAR-dirt start was his 2011 career debut; best Beyer was going 2 turns; 12%-winning fresh trainer suggests we take a wait and see approach.

Race 9

Geisha Gal
Repeatedly proven off the pine, this miss is fresh and dangerous; far from disgraced in this league last time, she has trained steadily for this and should sit a nice stalk and pounce trip; winner of the 2012 closer repeated at this very level, then took the state-bred $125K Mt. Vernon with an 82 Beyer; respect.
Malibu Holiday
Nothing wrong with hitting the exacta in 9 of 19; she has won longer on the synthetic in the past so the distance should not be a concern; decent blowout last Friday could have her on her toes; too sharp to ignore.
Free as a Bird
It took her awhile to figure it out but the efforts against winners have been solid; she ran too good to lose in this league two back and note she was clear for fun in the last race; the winner of the 2012 finale won in this league, was out of the money thrice; legit player.
Scenario Analysis
Love the series of drills since the solid effort in last; she may have just been overmatched in the Tampa finale but proved she belongs here last time; show horse 3/1 cashed next out in an N1X at GP, then lost next pair; contention goes deep.
Rock my Heart (GER)
Brown great with new stock like this making N. American debut; she has not missed a beat coming to the race accentuated by the bullet last Friday; show horse in the 2012 closer won at this level also for Brown at GP and then took a restricted $85K BEL stakes 6/23 with an 84 Beyer; new face must be considered.
Nice bit of training to have this guy cashed in first start after taking 2012 off; she was steadied entering the clubhouse turn at the shore and then ran erratically; best when sent along, if you figure she was just a tad short in last, then you can build a case for a move forward.
Only poor effort came when out in post 11 in the BC effort; three exited that race to win next out; heroine of the 6/30 effort took a $100K Canterbury stakes on 7/13 with a 90 Beyer for Maker; there are several stakes performers in the family including Atswhatimtalknbout, who was Grade 2 placed; yet another threat.
Run a Risk
She was inching toward the winner in the stakes here last year; key off the 2013 opener at this level and she has to be left in the mix; considering she hopped in the air last time, the race was not all that bad; miss has a right to improve with age as kin to Tricky Causeway, who won a stakes at 9 and banked over $400K; don't ignore.
Miss has a right to show more speed here on the stretch out; 4th finisher 4/28 took a $35K optional next out; place horse two back cashed next out in a $61K shore stakes; winner 4/28 took an $83K stakes 6/13 at BEL with a 90 Beyer; trainer continues to spot them great.
Roman Invader
Mirror races in the last pair; life and death for the last win in the short field in Chicago, but she was right there a number of times since and could not close the deal; at least she has the two races to draw from now; needs a wake-up call.
She ran into the traffic jam the last time in town; the 5/27 place horse won twice since, the last in a $100K optional here on 7/22 with a 88 Beyer; miss did something two back you don't see everyday and that's come back on after losing the lead; could be compromised by the post this time.

Race 10

Crafty Push
She pressed a decent pace in her comeback race of nearly a month ago, a much needed effort; subsequent local work tab is not inspiring and she may need more tightening before recapturing the early speed she displayed last season.
Exits the same event as the rail runner where she rallied belatedly; reverts to Saez, who has done well while aboard, and is obvious need of a strong set of early fractions which would brighten her prospects.
Blue Sixty Four
Although finish off the board again last month, she did show much more in the way of prompting ability; faces nemesis Little Gabby Girl and is unlikely to turn the tables on that rival regardless of the soil condition at post time; cannot endorse for the top spot.
Took a while to break maiden but did so with authority in June; the trouble is the lackluster workout regimen since then; lands into a field today, however, that seems soft for the class involved; mixed signals.
Little Gabby Girl
Goes for the hat trick today and seems capable of doing so, rain or shine; draws a comfortable middle post and should be able to stay within range; there are several gate speed types to her outside flank and those should prove adequate targets; the one to beat.
Crescent Shore
Pressed the issue between rivals and faded while alongside of Crafty Push; unlike that one, however, she does have important prior experience at this oval (a respectable fourth against better stock); additionally, her latest a.m. move was respectable; playable.
Frosty But Funky
Considering the slow getaway, and the swift half-mile fraction, she can be forgiven the latest defeat; should appreciate the cutback in distance and the trainer excels in that particular maneuver; should certainly offer betting value.
Dixie Sparkle
Got away unchallenged in the maiden breaker and also benefited by the tepid half-mile split that day; will have to up her game substantially if the other speedsters remain; still must be respected because of the presence of a top rider.
Legal Lady
Did not fare well in her first assignment against winners and hopefully the days of slow getaways from the gate are behind her; draws a favorable attack post but that may not be enough of an edge; a square price is assured.
Make sure not to overlook this lady who was defeated last time by Lisalisalee who is a 3-time winner; in the previous run, she was beaten by odds-on Bozique who earned a 68 Beyer in her next victory; can prove a major stretch factor here.

Race 11

Awakino Cat
Multiple stakes winner has obviously seen faster days, but he still appears to be capable of showing up with a competitive performance at this level of competition, and have to respect the fact that he's making his first start for the Jacaobson barn after a 25k claim, and that Castellano gets the call; that said, the rail post at this trip can be very tricky.
He ran well the first time he raced over turf and that was the only time he's run in a turf dash like this; runner up from latest won next out here on 7/27 going 6f vs. 20k claimers with a 78 Beyer; not willing to ignore him while dropping in class.
Yield Bogey
Like Awakino Cat, he was once a very sharp turf sprinter, and even though his best races might be behind him, he's only two races removed form an effort that would be strong enough to get him into the mix against these; multiple graded stakes placed performer commands his share of respect in this spot.
He's just two-for-31 lifetime and he's seeking his first turf victory in his 12th turf attempt; feel that this is likely to prove to be a tough spot for him to land in and his lack of early speed makes him a candidate to be outrun throughout.
He's hasn't posted a top-three finish in his last 12 starts going back through 2012 and there isn't anything in his recent form to suggest that he can get himself into the mix against these; he has the look of an outsider.
Beer Is Good
Don't like to see the direction that his form has headed in since about this time a year ago, but if he can find his way back to one of his better performances, he's eligible to have a say in the outcome; that said, prefer to give the nod to others in this one.
Sustainable Forest
Can't deny the natural early speed that he brings with him but he's going to need to be ready to return from a long layoff on top of his game if he's to threaten the top contenders in here; feel that he's a possible speed and fade candidate.
Victorious Leader
He's run races in the past that are fast enough to suggest that he has the ability to step up with a competitive run against these, and he might appreciate getting back over turf for the first time since last October; third finisher from latest won next out at Bel on 6/2 going 6f over turf vs. 20k claimers with a 76 Beyer.
Jess Not Jesse
Despite not having run since September, he does appear to be well meant in this spot while getting back over a turf course where he boasts a three-for-three mark; stakes plaed veteran goes out for a barn that has done some nice work with turf sprinters over the years and C.V. is a go-to rider for them.
Martini Madness
Have to be at least mildy concerned when seeing that this multiple stakes placed performer wasn't anywhere near his best in his latest outing, but his most recent start over dirt, a muddy surface at Belmont Park three starts back, was strong enough to leave these behind to battle it out over the place prize; first call for Ortiz.
Regal Strike
He might be ready to deliver one of his sharper performances while making his second start back from a layoff and the third place finisher from his latest race returned to win next out at Mth on 7/21 going 6f vs. 5k claimers with a 58 Beyer.
Reserved Quality
Like the idea of this stakes placed colt going turf-to-dirt for this, and it's worth noting that he's two-for-two racing over the main track here; he's perfectly capable of making noise against these if he feels up to one of his better efforts.
Poised to a Tee
He needs to bounce back from a sub par performance, but like to see the way that he ran in his first start for this barn two races ago, and this would be a bad spot for him to land in if this race has to be moved to the main track.
Buckeye Heart
He was a winner in his one start over the main track here prior to this and he might appreciate getting back over dirt and putting blinkers back on for this; leaning toward others for the top spot, but not counting him out of a spot underneath in the exotics.