08/06/2013 1:00PM

Closer Looks: Del Mar August 7, 2013

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Race 1

Et Tu Walker
This has been a tough-luck meet for O'Neill with a disproportionate number of 2nds to wins; ht has a shot to turn things around with this one, who just missed against similar at Hollywood and whose form since moving to the turf has been excellent; has enough natural speed seemingly to adapt to the cutback to 5f; choice.
 
Summer Exclusive
Won the Harry Hensen earlier this year, although just narrowly, and keep in mind he faced only 3-year-olds in that race; subsequent effort was a disappointment, albeit against an open allowance group that was essentially a stakes race; 2 for 4 record is a plus; reunited with Gomez, who is 2 for 2 on him.
 
A Toast to You
Must shake off the rust from a layoff; he worked once following that last race -going a half on Apr. 8 - but then didn't return to the tab until July 11; pretty easy works, with the tempo only picking up in the last two; so fitness is a concern; that said, he is a horse that strung together Beyers in the 90s three times before his last race; so if ready, quite dangerous.
 
Depreciable
Was all out to get up going down the hill in a 6.5f race and is now cut back in distance and returns from a layoff; that's a tough combination, plus you throw in a class hike into the N2X ranks; let's see a comeback race.
 
Kingpin Ryno
After fading in two consecutive routes, it is back to a sprint for him; he ran well under these conditions last year with a 2nd and a 1st here - though against entry-level allowance competition; he has a fourth and two sixths in three races against N2X runners.
 
El Mirage King
Cutback to 5f probably suits him best of any of these in the field; he is blessed with speed and has been getting tired in longer sprints; needs to make up some ground on Et Tu Walker who has finished in front of him in their last two matchups; threat.

Race 2

Slewpy Again
Sharp effort when visiting the claiming realm for the initial time but the climb back to special weights is usually a difficult one; must deal with the rail slot for the first time and faces a host of untested runners; recent workout is ordinary.
 
Sudden Rumor
Beginner hails from G1 winner Birdonthewire who banked 541K and whose offspring have won 20 out of 184 debuts; the dam won 2 of 15 and 73K; among the winning siblings is 213K earner Got Even; sharp gate drill on 7/29 is worth noting.
 
Smogcutter
Hurt by the outermost post and a speed duel first time out; his sire won multiple G2s and 1.12 million; the dam went zero for 3 lifetime; winning siblings include 11K earner Tiz Heat; needs to get away unpressured; worth some follow-up.
 
Sir Barclay
Sired by Kafwain, who won multiple G2s and 715K (his progeny have won 10 percent of their initial starts); the dam was unraced; winning sibs include 83K earner Pulpit's Express; a moderate work tab is on view.
 
Ashleyluvssugar
A pair of modest gate drills turned in during the last 2 weeks; the gelding's sire was unraced but descendants of Game Plan are 12 percent winners first time out; the dam was zero for 4; sib to 62K earner Ashley's Bambino.
 
Exponentially
Beaten to the punch by Slewpy Again last month but he did more of the pacesetting work that day; the blinker addition should help the cause as should the latest half-mile workout which was a definite upgrade; the betting value is there.
 
Go First
After a fine maiden voyage in May,he aimed too high in an added money event as both races featured wide trips; the sire involved won 715K including multiple G2 scores; the dam won 1 of 17 and 49K; sib to 11K earner Jack's Gone; respect.
 
Bold Fantasy
Newcomer was sired by multiple G1 type Bertrando who amassed 3.18 million and whose progeny are 93 for 767 as far as winning first out; the dam never competed; there are no winning siblings to highlight; average works of late.
 
Onebadshenanigan
Gained decent ground in his only start but now may be compromised by the draw; his sire won 6 of 23 attempts and 218K while the mom won 3 of 19 and 34K; among the winning siblings is 68K earner Chicsdigtheshark.

Race 3

Secret Genius
She's tailed off quite a bit since she beat Addendum at Santa Anita and she didn't have any noteable excuses in her latest disappointing effort here; that makes her 0 for 3 over this surface and it's possible she just doesn't care for Polytrack; whatever the reason, she is a pretty dull horse right now so we're going to pass.
 
Ghost N Your Heart
She's lightly raced for a 5-year-old but she's won 4 of her 13 starts and she is certainly capable of handling the slight jump in class following her latest win for $16K at Betfair Hollywood Park July 14; horse that won her race at BHP June 16 won the $25K claimer Secret Genius and Addendum exit with an 82 Beyer Speed Figure July 18; only thing missing is a race or at least a work over this track but she still looks like a serious player.
 
Queen of the Hill
She has won both times she's been in for a tag and she has been firing bullets while preparing for her first start since she chased Sweet Marini in a statebred first-level allowanc race May 26; Sweet Marini won the $200K Fleet Treat for Cal-breds in her next start here July 27; this gal is the one they will be chasing today and she could be gone if she breaks on top.
 
Metaxa
She was heavily favored to win her latest but Ghost caught her late and she was claimed out of the race by Truman who doesn't halter that many; the past five years he has a 17 percent strike rate running them back the first time (3/18); she has decent tactical speed and could get first crack at Queen of the Hill; playable.
 
Sean S
She was on a roll until she finished well back in a $62,500 optional race on the turf here last July and she just hasn't been the same since; drops back into the claiming ranks another dull effort on the grass at BHP June 20 but she wasn't much of a factor in her two previous races for $25K; she has a win over this surface but others look more attractive.
 
Spring Breeze
Interesting newcomer comes off a couple of sharp races at Tampa and Colonial and she had a nice work here July 28; horse that beat her in her latest in a $5K starter race at Colonial has a 8-9-4 record from 36 starts and has earned $194K; she will need to improve on her career-best 69 Beyer Speed Figure but that isn't out of the realm of possibilities; consider for the exotics.
 
Addendum
Seems to like it here with two solid races including a win last year; she got hung out on the turn while the winner was getting through along the rail in her latest otherwise she would have been closer; it has been a while since she has won a race but she has come close and she consistently puts up Beyer Speed Figures that would get it done here; look who's riding and it wouldn't be surprising if he moves her up enough to get her over the top; the pick.

Race 4

Clenor (IRE)
Can't ignore that she earned a G3 stakes placing in her final start in Ireland, and viewing the presence of Bejarano as a sign that her connections are expecting a sharp run out of her in her USA racing debut; the added distance might be a concern, but that's a question all of these have to answer.
 
Exotic Behavior
Sire wins with approximately 15% of his turf starters and dam won three of seven starts for 56k, and she didn't make a turf start; an improved performance is needed, but that isn't out of the question with this Baffert-trained miss, and Garcia has won with 8 of 22 (36%) mounts for this barn at the current meeting.
 
Sierra Electrica
She sports the top Beyer Speed Figure in here and her career debut has to be viewed as being a useful one, a race that saw her attract a little wagering support; she has a live look to her in this spot.
 
Amy Jane
She brings a good deal of early speed with her and it's interesting to see Miller waste little time in stretching her out in distance; if anyone in here is going to go gate-to-finish, this appears to be the one, and Gomez has won with 13 of 43 (30%) mounts for this barn in 2013.
 
Quick Navigator
Maybe the added distance can help her along but she was basically outrun at every point of call in her career debut and she's going to need to really step it up over that performance to get the job done
 
Hugh Knew
Sire wins with approximately 10% of his turf starters and dam won once from 10 starts for 54k, including 1 of 7 turf starts for 51k; she's shown a little something in her first two starts but she must show more in her turf debut and her first route attempt if she's to get the job done.
 
La Madera
Limited available data on sire with regard to his turf starters, but he was multiple G1 stakes placed racing overseas while winning 5 of 19 starts for 481k, and he was 0-for-4 racing over turf in North America; dam won once from 18 starts for 77k, including 0-for-3 over turf; winner from latest won next out here on 7/19 going 5 1/2f in a 100k stakes with a 66 Beyer.
 
Back to Life
Sire wins with approximately 11% of his turf starters and dam was winless from one start, and it wasn't a turf start; this filly is a 1/2 to Blazing Honor (3-41, 61k, including 2 of 27 turf starts for 49k); this barn has had success when placing horses over turf for the first time.

Race 5

Lovely Instinct
Not much in the career debut when breaking slowly but improvement is expected for a 29%-winning trainer with 2nd-time starters; good-3F workout for this suggests we will see a better gate break; the one knock is the rail draw can be a tricky post position for any inexperienced runner.
 
Irish Street
Projects to race on or near the lead with Tribal Tattoo; Slewthatflew had her number in last when fading to last over the track; 2-for-28 second-start trainer is 0-for the last-37 with synthetic-surface starters; know her early but unsure about late.
 
Tribal Tattoo
Took some betting money in her last-place debut fade over the track; bounced back well with a quick-4F workout for this; projects to race on or near the lead with Irish Street; since 2012 the new rider is 3-for-6 at DMR for the trainer; expecting her to take these a long way up top.
 
Sunrisa Sunrisa
Away 48 days since since defeating 2 runners combined in 2 losses; 4%-winning-fresh trainer since 2012 suggests we take a wait and see approach; new rider is her 3rd different pilot in as many races which is not a good win angle.
 
Wickedly Sassy
Good blinkers-on trainer off the favored-debut loss vs. Slewthatflew when off slowly then steadied; the workout for this did not entice but a clean trip would likely produce a much-better finish; see plenty of upside for better 2nd-time out.
 
Union Blaze
1-for-20 firster trainer since 2012 does not add to the appeal; sire is 0-for-10 with 2-year-old 1st-time starters; is out of a 1-for-2 dam (25K) who won her OSA career debut at 6F on synthetic and her only loss occurred in a 125K stakes; her only other foal to race is Notbyemyrules who finished 6th in her career debut.
 
Take One
Sire is 11-for-119 with 2-year-old 1st-time starters; is out of a 2-0-0-0 dam (5K) who's only other foal to race is 2-for-7 Dance in the Snow (20K) who won her HAW career debut at 6F on dirt and 2 of her 1st three races; the workouts for this are not very enticing.
 
Pining Play
Took no betting money in the debut when troubled on turf; hopes the surface switch will help the cause as the trainer since 2012 yields 21% winners on synthetic surfaces; the workouts for this do not add to the appeal.
 
Adriatic Lass
Sire is 35-for-395 with 2-year-old 1st-time starters; is out of a 1-for-9 dam (17K) who won her 8th-career start at 1M on synthetic; her only other foal to race is 4-for-21 Pedacitos (33K) who graduated in her 7th start; trainer is 1-for-19 with 1sters since 2012.
 
Derek's Girl
Been working like a runner in a field seemingly lacking superstars; sire is 2-for-28 with 2-year-old 1st-time starters; is the 1st foal out of an unraced dam; hot-DMR trainer is 1-for the last-22 with 1sters.
 
Slewthatflew
Defeated many of these in last when not expected to do much at 23-1 debut odds; 7%-winning 2nd-start trainer since 2012 does not add to the appeal that a big improvement is on the way; drawn outside again which she handled well 1st-time out.

Race 6

Sassy Suances
Didn't make the lead in her first crack at the level on the local sod and held third money off that brief freshening; move back to the fence for her second crack on synthetic suggests she'll be prominent from the bell this time but there is other speed in here which means she'll have to work pretty hard very step of the way and that could leave her vulnerable late.
 
Ismene
Statebred moves inside while taking on open company in her return from the break; fiilly blew midstretch leads in each of her 2 recent cracks with restricted stakes runners though she did hold well for second money as the chalk each time; worked sharply last week for her return to the scene of her maiden score, but she's another who doesn't figure to get a free ride early so she'll have to earn this one.
 
Charm the Maker
She's been away nearly half a year since a decent try against G2 turfers at Santa Anita; filly kep pretty good company in each of her first 2 seasons on the track and this is the first time she'll race outside the stakes ranks since the debut maiden score; works are pretty sharp and there's plenty of pace in front of her; with a sharp fresh effort on her page and a maiden score at the trip she gets the call to return running.
 
Tribal Gal
Speedy sophomore tackles older for the first time in this spot; she did break her maiden second out here last summer and she handled open company runners earlier in the year up North, but her style will make things tough on her against this field; don't think she'll be around at the finish.
 
Warren's Blossom
She'd been away for nearly 2 years before showing speed in the combacker at Hollywood this sprint, but she didn't have much left for the drive and was given some more time off to prepare for her local debut; maybe she likes these better and she was pretty good before hitting the bench, but it wouldn't be a surprise if she were to need another one before offering the best she has left.
 
Conkate
Gets off the fence for the surface switch after sharpening her interest at a shorter trip; last crack at the trip came against stakes runners and she wasn't beaten much in that heat; just missed at the level on the Santa Anita dirt so we know she fits here but the surface may not be her best and the barn has had a rough beginning to the stand.
 
Big Honey Bee
Failed to prove a serious threat late at a shorter trip on the lawn here Opening week; her prior couple of cracks at the level came over Tapeta up North where she's done quite a bit of her damage; maybe the pace benefits her some, but even on her best a minor award looks to be her ceiling.
 
There Is No Limit
Tries a softer bunch after beating one foe home in a loaded local heat a few weeks back; mare didn't do much in her prior local spin either, but she does pack a decent kick when right and both the price and today's pace are positives; giving her an underneath exotics look.
 
Minds Eyes
Just missed at a shorter trip on the local sod while making her first start in 5 months; 4 year old broke her maiden over the main track here second time out so we know she can handle the footing and she worked last week as if she remains on her toes for an outfit that keeps them going second back from the break; main danger.
 
Wednesday
Moves in to face older for the initial time while drawing the outside slot for the cutback and surface switch; sophomore has early foot but she's shown the ability to sit and pass runners as well and that should serve her well from out here in a field that looks to feature solid pace; nice to see Bejarano stick with her.

Race 7

Side Letter
Some promising work in NoCal show there's ability here and it's encouraging Miller picked a tough spot like this for her first SoCal try; ample speed here to be sure, but 'Tiger and a couple others can sizzle early so that could be an issue; debut win came on synthetic so that helps in terms of handling this place; still, the pace picture may not play in her favor.
 
Concave
Came out firing to win her debut impressively at BHP July 12; that did come on turf so there is a surface issue today, but you've seen many a turf horse move to this ground and do very nicely, and there's a smart 1:13.20 work here July 21 to encourage; showed she can duel and prevail; she may need that skill again here, or show she can sit and pass horses because there are a few sizzlers in here who look as quick or quicker; 6 of 7 sibs are winners including Peisinoe (4 wins, $179K, SW, G2 SP).
 
E Equalsmcsquared
Don't need to be a genius to see she may be in line for a nice trip here; looked super blasting maidens at LS, was freshened, came to SoCal and rallied strongly to be 2nd to 'Tiger in the Landaluce; Beyer wasn't much, yes, (61) but today's race shap may play well for her as there are some speedsters in here and she showed she can sit and finish; 2 nice local works bode well, too; 1 of 2 sibs is winner At First Asking (4 wins, $44K).
 
She's a Tiger
No surprise she can sizzle being kin to multiple G1 SW sprinter Smiling Tiger; in fact, she's yet to be behind a horse at a margin call; showed some guts, too, keeping E Equalsmcsquared at bay in the Landaluce; big issue today is the presence of ample other speed; she may be the quickest, though, but if she has to work hard to dispatch with the other speed, does that leave her vulnerable come furlong No. 6?
 
Stop Smiling
Broke slowly in her July 6 debut but still showed the professionalism to settle and then finish smartly to win going away; Beyer came back pretty sweet, too (73); today she may get a great set-up as well as some sizzlers in here should ensure a brisk, contested pace; worked well here since 3 times, too; no surprise she has ability as 5 of 6 sibs are winners including Weemissfrankie (3 wins, $559K, won G1 DMR Debutante here, G1 Oak Leaf, 3rd in G1 BC Juv. Fillies).
 
Santa Lucia
Nice debut as after a sluggish start, wide trip and some bumping she STILL gamely prevailed by a lip at 22-1 at BHP June 28; that being said, that also came vs. maiden claimers and the Beyer came back awfully light (34); at least it's nice OHara feels good enough about her to try a spot like this and she's nicely over this track, but a big step forward is required if she's to have a say; but hey, we're talking young inexperienced 2yo fillies so you can see big steps taken forward.
 
Love Smitten
Invades after some nice work at PID; maiden win was very nice as she dueled and then drew off to win easiliy; been working here of late so she may be comfortable in her new surroundings for new trainer O'Neill; still, she's another who needs improvement Beyer-wise and she also likely has to prove she can be effective from off the pace as she's facing some quickies; 2 of 3 are winners including Zephara (2 wins, $16K).

Race 8

Crystalline Indy
Poor start on the grass but local drills are solid; stakes placed 3 for 14 dam earned nearly $185K; 3 of 4 siblings won; all banked 6 figures; top earner Cat Talk took 4 of 13, earned over $180K; trainer has spotted them great all season and that only figures since he assisted Mike Mitchell for about 7 years.
 
Gypsy Friday
Pretty nice training job to have her run so well off the extended layoff; at least she got a feel of the surface; can't be dismissed.
 
Kana Flavor
Gallagher one for 15 the last 5 years going turf to synthetic with MSW runners but one ran 2nd beaten a head at 26-1; she has been a bad actress at the gate so far; the winner of the debut repeated in a state-bred $25K optional, then was 2nd beaten just over 2 in a $40K optional; place horse in last graduated at this level and the winner repeated in an N1X with a 75 Beyer; sire won at 2, SW 6 for 24 dam banked over $360K all 3 siblings won including over $100K earner This Means War; if she can run at all, she figures to show it here.
 
That's a Bingo
Kruljac one for one the last 5 years going turf to synthetic with MSW runners; a few numbers short of the jackpot so far; SW 5 for 24 dam earned over $300K; all 4 sibs won; top kin Best Present Ever earned nearly $250K; Pedroza got a chance to figure her out; same goes for this miss as Kana Flavor.
 
Lakeside Bride
Not thrilled with the multiple beats for a tag and after 15 chances, the wind kind of just goes out of the sails; he has not lost so many times because he has a heart of gold; sure, these kind win now and again, but swallow a short price and watch the runner fail and it could leave a bad taste in the mouth.
 
Red Red Door
Benchmark about 14% with first timers in a 495-runner sample; sire graduated in third start, took a G2 here, earned over 600 grand; 5 for 36 dam banked nearly $180K; lone half bro to race Stone Hot took 3 of 18, earned almost $70K; love this work pattern accentuated by the blowout 6 days ago.
 
Hanserella
Pretty much the same story as Lakeside Bride; beaten three-quarters of a length in the best local start, but that was also in a maiden $32K seller last August; long, long overdue.
 
Suances Pride
Vienna 2 for 5 the last 5 years with first-time blinkers in MSW land; a bit more keen to run early in last and that could be more of the case here with the shades added to the equation; stakes winning 6 for 27 dam banked about $80K; both full siblings won multiple times, top kin and full sister Sassy Suances banked over $130K; two snappy local drills add to the positives.
 
Bridle Plan
Got a nice little education in the debut and was forced to steady in the process; dam's lone win was a dirt route; the 2 sibs to race are a combined 0 for 12; with a cleaner trip, this gal could make some noise here.
 
Sri's Red
Redattore 9 for 137 with debuters; sire didn t race at 2, took 2nd career start, went on to bank over $1.7 million as multiple Grade 1 winner; dam was unraced; this is her first to roll; drills nicely spaced.
 
Warren's Dixi Bell
Hung wide from slot 11, could be looking at a similar fate; the debut came back ultra live though; the 2nd, 4th and 5th finishers won at this level next out, 8th finisher took a maiden $30K claimer and the 7th finisher was 2nd a head vs. maiden $50K foes; dam was unraced; lone half bro to race Warren's Dr. Boo took 3 of 11, banked nearly 37 grand; can't toss this homebred.