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A CLOSER LOOK at Woodbine races on 10/04
Is starting to show signs of life and if she can continue on with better she can be a threat to take things all the way as she drops in for a first-time tag and has a chance to be on the lead throughout; if she can race unpressured for a while she might be tough to catch up with at this level; 5F work could help her; contender.
Both wins have come for modest claiming prices and she then tried allowance company last time against Charming Melody and was never in the hunt and never within range of that one; don't know why she should make up all the difference on that one in just one race with the interim work an assist; perhaps not impossible with a form reversal though others look better.
Won early this year but has had trouble competing in recent events; she will have to run better than she has at the longer distance and with her recent form on the dull side with easier she is seen as less than likely today.
Looks pretty good off the last race and win and back in a similar spot should be salty again on a repeat; how much of a difference the faster early pace would make shows up in her past performances; she certainly can improve and could be tough on a repeat, but then she is not raised in class there is the pace question, so the decision surrounds the price at which she is bettable.
Florida On Fire
Came close in similar spot a few starts ago and against conditioned company two starts back and it will probably take something a little bit better to win this time; the slop might be an allowable excuse for her latest and she could well bounce back; more likely to get a smaller piece of it than the top prize.
Has been running similar efforts in her last few in varying classes with her best finish against conditioned company; she looks as if she should be a fringe player in this one though there is always the chance that she will surprise on the upside as younger runners often do.
Gets to face the easiest company that she has met in some time; she will have her hands full getting the trip from the outside and off her latest and she does not look very promising in here until she indicates that she is ready for better.
Returns for the same price for which he was claimed despite being "out of jail" (he was claimed more than 30 days ago) and Lasix is reportedly added; he has not missed a paycheck in 4 outings and should have some late run as he cuts back to just 5 furlongs; at the time of writing, he did not have a qualifying workout and no preps since August.
Wheels back in 7 days after breaking 7th of 8 in his debut race and he had an even effort while not far behind the leaders but the winner was a filly who rallied; might need another.
From the first crop of 'Forum, the 2nd leading 1st crop sire who has at least 12 winners this year; the mare has produced 2 winners including stakes winning speedster Diablo's Closer; McKnight rides for Casse as regular rider Husbands is suspended.
His sire is below average with debut winners but this is a full brother to a very good winner in Whitney's Jo Jo and the mare was a winner at 2; his workout times have been decent.
Grey gelding drops to a new low level and returns to dirt; his debut race came on the main track but he broke slowly and was sluggish with his stride; he had big speed 2nd time out but stopped; could lead for a while.
His sire was speedy and is a source of quick runners as well as being above average as a debut sire; this is the 1st foal of a local mare who won her career debut and earned over $130,000; has decent workout times.
Ontario-bred was a Texas purchase (previously named El Zorrilo) and he's by a local sire who is below average as a debut sire and this is the first foal of an unplaced mare; he has been working in company for a while and a prep with 2 others on Aug. 16 was okay.
His sire won the Breeders' Cup Sprint and is above average as a debut sire; the mare has produced 7 winners (0 for 5 with 2yos) and her 3yo races in the last race on this day; at time of writing he did not have a workout since Sept. 11.
Drops to a new low level and he showed better speed in his latest and raced on the rail, which may not have been the best part of the track that day; he adds blinkers and reportedly gets Lasix too; wake up potential.
Was in contention for a short time in her debut but she stopped and because she is listed as getting Lasix, it seems she may have bled as a result of that race; she drops to maiden claiming for the first time and a couple of good interim workout times; the winner of her debut came back to win the Mazarine Stakes.
Has the breeding for the longer distance and she raced on a speed conducive surface in her debut when she beat one rival; McAleney has accepted the mount again and this is a wide open field; longshot play for the tri.
Reason for Justice
Busy filly rebounded from an unsettling incident 2 starts ago in her latest when she rallied 4 wide on the turn in very tough, sloppy conditions; she is by the same sire as Mazarine Stakes winner Lady Shari so the distance should be okay.
Has 4 runner-up placings in succession but has only come really close to winning once; she was 3 wide on the turn in her latest when favoured; she has decent breeding for the longer distance and Kabel remains on board.
Like Reason for Justice and stakes winning stablemate Lady Shari, she is by a hot sire and the switch to the dirt should be good for her; she had speed in her last main track outing but will have to conserve some of that energy as she stretches out in distance; threat.
Filly is offered for maiden claiming for the first time and she switches back to the main track for her first race on dirt with the Lasix medication and blinkers; barn has a way of sending out wake up runners.
Her sire is below average as a debut sire and the unraced mare has produced 2 winners from her first 2 foals to race; is asked to try a tough distance in this debut and at the time of writing, she did not show any works in August and slow recent preps.
Added Lasix for her 3rd start but was behind a slow early pace and did not have much late kick in a slowly run race; the added distance should be ideal for her given her breeding, though.
A son of her sire stretched out for the first time and won his maiden in impressive fashion recently at this track so that bodes well for her; she made an inside rally into the turn of her latest but then angled very wide on the turn for a mild rally; trainer Bell has decent stats with 'stretch outs' in the last 2 years.
Dog Gone Hound
Has not won in quite some time now and does seem to have problems with the faster paces as she seems to like to run forwardly; this spot is not easier in that regard in spite of the fact that she is coming down in price a level; others look better.
Moves into the claiming ranks for this one for the first time in her career and that could be a big change for the multiple winner; she has tractable speed and if she can improve as she did in the second off the layoff last time she could argue the outcome here; at least she seldom runs a bad one.
Exits a tougher spot where he tagalong effort looks to have produced a good number over a dull surface; the easier company should be more in line with her accomplishments of late and if she can produce another good race she can be competitive though she is in above her proven class level today.
Set a fast pace to win a fast race and now one must ask can she run as fast as she did last time when she doubles in claiming price; strange action for a barn who likes to drop their winners; if she looks as good in the flesh as she does on paper maybe she can double up as there is some back class there; she is a possibility but will no doubt be overbet relative to her chances of repeating her last race and the win.
Has not been finishing up well enough so far this season and that could go a long way towards explaining her winless season; maybe with the work and the drop she will be able to produce better.
Her second back in June is one of the better races on the page and came with a solid pace-pressing effort over a not too fast surface; she has freshened up off a good effort and there are a couple of decent works for an outfit which produces wins with returnees and a good work tab; she can build on her latest and should be troublesome for the others today; contender.
Bold to Love
Was on a roll in July but that came to an end after two wins when she was raced in allowance company; she has freshened up since that disaster and will attempt to regroup in an easier spot today; hard to predict that she is ready for a really top effort and she will likely need that to be in the hunt today and the pace scenario may be faster than she really wants, which makes her questionable.
This has not been a banner year for her and she will have her hands full as she returns from another break; has some regular works in Sept and that could lead to better, but she is still very risky and a big gamble up this high; might try to get a line on him today in case she drops next time.
took a couple of wins earlier this year when she ran in conditioned competition allowance and claiming but she has not been quite as effective in this cycle against better runners; running for a tag might help her chances some but she might have to do better as she leaves from the outside in a race where the pace might not be easy on a front runner.
Top half of the Fairlie entry has early speed to escape from the rail and has been improving of late though she will be facing her toughest class in the last while; she does have a chance to get a decent trip if she can start alertly from the inside and with that kind of trip run over a fair track she can be competitive and possibly the winner.
As is the case with several in here she is trying to establish her credentials with open company and she goes turf to dirt again; she is a stalker and can rally from behind a fast pace though whether she can finish fast enough to defeat these is a question here; edge to others until she shows what she can do in open company and she might need an improved race to make the board.
Second from the Fairlie entry has two wins from her last three starts and will now test the open waters against multiple winners; she has won long and short but will have to run faster to win in here and even to beat her entry mate; has worked in the interim but will be watching and learning today.
Larry Attard runner from the entry does her best racing in the claiming ranks and the move back in for a tag should prove helpful as she has been racing regularly in the allowance ranks; she has worked and with the drop she can be there if she runs better as she so often does with the drop.
Is still eligible for non-winners of two and that after 28 career starts; she is in form and will run her race but it is unlikely that that race will be good enough to defeat many of these, and a place on the board is not very likely.
Was claimed from her latest when she just missed with easier last time; she does like the distance and has run well consistently at the level or two below this; she has worked for her new interests and the knock against her running this high is that she has been vulnerable in the past when the pace was fast.
The Sid Attard-trained runner from the entry will be returning from a year-long absence and chops her value in half; she will probably be ready with a race or two under her but will check her out in the paddock for she is one with early speed and could wind up getting a nice trip in this pace match up.
Has been dull and off form in most of her races this year and while she is eligible to wake up and surprise she has not really matched her best Hastings race since the ship east; looking to others.
Ran her best race in some time when Lasix was returned last time and with that better race as a foundation to build on she could be of some interest as she also moves back to the dirt and will drop one level; she is a tough call but at least here you have the improving form and a good work in your corner; not impossible but does need a sharp reversal.
Went west after the fall claim of '99 and now returns with a couple of starts under her belt; she is very capable, or at least was, but might still need to do some racing; she is in at lower levels and if she looks ready to roll, she certainly has the back class to win this one.
Has a great record at the distance though she may not have run fast enough at the distance to be a factor unless she runs better and/or others do not perform; she has run well here in the past and appears to be in decent form; worth a look if playing the exotics though would give the edge to others for the top spot.
Nicely bred filly made a natural move to grass, given her pedigree, last time and she turned her form around with a front running score at big odds; she did not participate in the Natalma Stakes, for fillies on the grass, after that, and has been away for more than a month now; how she will deal with the speedy 'Texas is a question.
Layed Back Charlie
She's by a deceased sire who is well known for his ability to sire a grasser but there is not a lot of turf breeding on the dam's side of the family; despite her very busy schedule in her first season of racing, she managed to break through for an upset win in her latest when she caught a wrapped-up front runner by surprise; longshot.
Strait From Texas
Stakes placed gal is by a red-hot sire who sired recent stakes winner Lady Shari at this track; this gal put up a good fight in one of the divisions of the Natalma but was finally edged by a nice prospect; she will have to avoid a tough duel with Styleistick but is a major factor.
Debuted on grass with her mate Rightfully and she was involved in a fast pace at the beginning but she faded; Lasix is reportedly added but let's watch her again.
The Hot One
Has been away for 2 months and moves to grass for her first try against winners but she has little turf breeding; she also stretches out in distance for the first time and note that she shows steady workouts; taking others.
Nicely bred filly was coupled with 'Queen in her debut and she made a threatening, wide move on the turn of that opener but flattened out in the stretch; the winner is back in this field as both Stronach gals jump up to the allowance class; in the tri.
Fast improving filly really took to the grass in her local debut and the added distance didn't hurt either; she is by the continent's leading 1st crop sire and while she didn't beat much in that opener, she is one of 3 grass winners in this field.
Was very professional in her career debut when she beat a decent field and she should love the move to grass; her sire is above average with turf winners from starters and the mare, a stakes performer on turf, has produced 3 turf winners from 4 starters; she was in too tough for just her 2nd start last time; trainer Attard has a 24% win mark with '1st time turfers'.
Will only race if it rains and this event is moved to the dirt; she won her maiden in impressive fashion on the main track and will race with Lasix again for this switch back to that surface; top three chance if she competes.
Dips in for maiden claiming and her recent form suggests she is ready for a big move forward; she rallied from far behind 2 starts ago behind a good winner but was close to the pace in a longer race last time and she flattened out; the turn back in distance is appealing; win candidate.
Had 6 weeks off prior to her latest which was just last Saturday and despite the class drop, she was only on the edges; her only grass outing came when she got Lasix for the first time and she tired from chasing a fast pace; prefer others.
Sheza A Nine Plus
Filly with the odd name is by a good grass sire and she is improving quickly for a trainer who has done well with Eastern War Lord this year; she loomed 4 wide on the turn of her latest but after a stretch duel, was out-finished by another longshot; the slightly shorter distance is good for her; factor.
4-year-old is running out of time to win her maiden at this track (5yo maidens are not permitted at Woodbine) but she certainly appears to be very close to her first win; this will be her 19th attempt and she worked hard in her latest, her first outing for maiden claiming.
First-timer is by a good grass sire who is below average with debut winners; this is a 1/2 sister to grass stakes winner Kaydee Classic, who also won her turf debut; her trainer has had success with 1st timers in the last 2 years.
Wing It Aly
Added blinkers for her 2nd start and once again, she took betting support but did not have a bid; tough to recommend.
She's by a decent turf sire and her dam's side is also well known for his grassers but this gal has been beaten by easier; she is a late running type who has had 5 weeks off since a 10 furlong main track test.
Ran so well in her grass debut but is now a main track only entrant after she stopped badly in her latest on grass; she ran better in her previous outing on the main track and the drop to maiden claiming is a significant move down; would like her chances a bit better in a sprint race.
4-year-old gets her first start of the year if this race is moved to the dirt and she showed some late running ability last year; she has been working long distances getting ready for her season debut.
Put it all together in his second start with blinkers and took it all the way; he steps up for today but he might now be ready to improve and is not out of the mix with a pace tracking race; should trip well but will need a little better to win.
Question is all about readiness to run off the layoff; the works look to have him geared up and as a lightly-raced sophomore he is one of the best fits to the condition; his best races are relevant and he is dropping in class; contender if he looks ready in the paddock.
Sophomore also drops from stakes company and he has been improving and running well; he is likely to be tough in here unless the tough beat and new top in his latest get to him; contender.
Just hard to know where he is at these days with no wins since his 2-year-old season; he has had enough tries in this condition and there is little reason to see him winning today.
Vice n' Friendly
Veteran has won half his starts this season one at this price tag and usually with front-end trips; he will have company on the lead as he stretches out but is not out of the question though others are preferred in this pace match up.
Has made one start on the comeback trail and showed little in the sprint where he did not keep up; he should handle the longer distance better and will have his hands full in this spot even if he approaches his best Belmont form from a year ago.
Has yet to adapt to the local scene; whether the latest break in activity will lead to better is a big guess; looks to be well prepared but who knows just how well he can and will run today; one to tab for later on or take a flyer at 25-1.
His winning allowance race makes him look relevant though he has not performed as well since he moved into this condition; what is needed is one who is going to run well and will look to others on that basis.
Has beaten better for his win earlier in the year and is dropping to his lowest level in some time; that could be of benefit and he would appear to be in racing form off his recent races with better; like the sophomores in this condition, but with the drop he should be competitive.
Came to hand in his first off the claim and with continued progress should have lots to say about the outcome; improved work could signal further progress to be made; exotics factor and possible win contender.
If he can near his best performance shortening up to the distance he will have a good shot; he showed speed last time and drops; one of the more likely.
Don't know if he can run at all; will watch and hope to learn more today but he won't get any support form here.
Is just getting going after three starts this year but he has had so many chances that he is unlikely; he is a proven loser and there is nor real reason to play him to improve today; look elsewhere.
Has a couple of the better races on the page, one at the distance and if he can run that cutting back he can make a race of it; he has breezed and if he can get going in time he can get there with the easier company.
Has had plenty of opportunity but has been tailing off a bit of late and it all depends on how the drop and the cutback affect his performance; he is a possibility though we're leaning to others.
Let Him Rip
Dropped and improved with Lasix and will step back up; he could continue to progress and while others look a little more interesting coming down, he only has a few starts the improvement could be sizeable, but he still is risky.
Good race with easier at the distance but he is still on the slow side after a dozen starts and is seen as less than likely to improve a lot off that one stepping up.
Has had his share of chances and has some of the better races but he will have to make up his mind that he wants to win the close ones; has a slow breeze which does not tell much; not impossible and would consider for underneath for sure.
Has been away for 13 months and he does drop for a claiming price after working quite regularly the last while; he is in for a first-time tag and if he looks the part pre-race he could certainly make a race of it.
Was claimed form his latest and has been rested so that he can return at the same class; short breeze and he is a possibility in a race that will go to one who improves.