07/19/2013 9:45PM

Closer Look: Saratoga July 21, 2013


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Race 1

Cool It
1/2 SP Livin Large (221K, 1-16 sprint) by 13-199 (7%) 2yo FTS sire; mud/route-winning dam (13K, 0-4 sprint) has 8 winners from 11 runners (2-5 2yos, 1 FTS winner, 7-11 sprinters); 6/22 work matches Hangingwithsonny (FTS - Fri. 5th); barn 1-25 past 5 years 2yo FTS NYB MSW dirt sprints (1-9 at Spa).
Fox Rox
1/2 SP 2yo Elusive Fox (168K, FTS winner, 1-11 sprint), SW router Fox Rules (252K, 1-5 at 2, 0-3 sprint) by 31-238 (13%) 2yo FTS sire; multiple 2yo sprint SW dam (216K, FTS winner) has 4 winners from 4 runners (2-4 2yos, 1 FTS winner, 3-4 sprinters); 2 works match Aspree (FTS - Fri. 5th); barn 0-11 past 5 years 2yo FTS dirt sprint MSW.
Thug Daddy
40K 2yo after 1F work 10.4; sire 14-89 (16%) 2yo FTS; 1st starter from turf-placed dam (0-2 sprint); dam 1/2 multiple SP Diamond Anchor (577K), SW router Daytime Promise (215K); barn 1-12 (8%, $2.94 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS NYB MSW dirt sprints Spa; barn 0-40 past year all FTS.
Sing the Dream
21K yrlng, 44K 2yo after 1F work 10.1; sire 44-357 (12%) 2yo FTS; 1st starter from winning dam (45K, 1-7 at 2, 1-9 sprint); dam full SP sprinter General Tommy (292K); barn 2-26 (8%) past 5 years 2yo FTS dirt sprint MSW.
Empire Dreams
35K 2yo after 2F work 21.4; 1/2 SP 2yo Court of Dreams (67K, 0-2 sprint) by 0-16 2yo FTS sire; unraced dam has 3 winners from 3 runners (3-3 2yos, 1-3 sprinters); dam 1/2 G2 SW router Oratory; barn 0-15 past 5 years 2yo FTS NYB MSW dirt sprint.
Double Gold
9K RNA yrlng, 52K 2yo after 1F work 10.1; 1/2 SW 2yo sprinter Our Cozzette (82K, FTS winner), G2 SW St Averil (328K, 1-2 at 2, FTS winner, 2-5 sprint) by 23-222 (10%) 2yo FTS sire; dam G2 turf SW (402K, 3-7 at 2, FTS winner, 3-6 sprint) with 3 winners from 10 runners (2-4 2yos, 2 FTS winners, 2-7 sprinters); barn 48-358 (13%) past 5 years 2yo MSW dirt sprints (1-6 NYB MSW at Spa).
Cat Squad
Sire 23-222 (10%) 2yo FTS; unraced dam has 1 winner from 2 runners (0-2 2yos, 1-1 sprinters); dam 1/2 SW Deodar (162K), SW router Bema (146K), G3 SP router Morada Key (180K); barn 3-39 (8%) past 5 years 2yo FTS dirt sprint MSW.
American Creed
115K wnlng, 155K RNA yrlng by 21-394 (5%) 2yo FTS sire; 1st starter from route winning dam (45K, 0-2 sprint); dam 1/2 G3 SW Naughty New Yorker (1M); barn 3-80 (4%) past 5 years 2yo FTS dirt sprint MSW; 5/6, 5/13 works match barn 2yo Tall Boy (31 Beyer as FTS at CD 6/21); jock's 1st call
450k yrlng; 1/2 multiple SW Icabad Crane (585K, 1-1 at 2, 1-1 sprint) and turf SW Our Golden Dream (149K, 1-4 at 2, FTS winner) by 31-247 (13%) 2yo FTS sire; sprint-winning dam (46K) has 7 winners from 8 runners (2-6 2yos, 2 FTS winners, 2-5 sprinters); barn 15-136 (11%) past 5 years 2yo FTS dirt sprint MSW; 7/17 work match barn 3yo Roman's Avenue (54 Beyer); jock's 2nd call.
Slew's Brew
14K yrlng by 28-323 (9%) 2yo sire; sprint-winning dam (94K, 1-1 at 2) has 2 winners from 5 runners (0-2 2yos, 2-5 sprinters); barn 1-4 (25%, $15.85 ROI) past 5 years 2nd-time 2yo dirt sprint MSW; outsprinted early vs. Sanford entrant, but passed tired foes late; needs forward move.

Race 2

First Beach
Trainer nails 22% sprint-to-route winners since 2012; rematch with Red Vine who defeated him in last as both runners should appreciate today's added furlong; imrpoved sharply 1st Turf, Lasix and blinkers; the debut winner repeated in a BEL alw. with a 93 Beyer speed figure.
Red Vine
Favored debut then did everything right but win; 28%-winning sprint-to-route trainer is a huge plus off the neck loss when screaming out for more yaradge and receives an extra furlong to get up in time; most runners move forward 2nd-time out which makes him doubly dangerous.
Town Extension
Sire is 27-for-222 with 1st-turf runners; stakes-winning dam (436K) went 3-0-0-0 on turf; 2 of 4 foals to race on grass are turf winners including 2-for-12 Zapster (71K green); the winner from last repeated in the G2 Dwyer with a 100 Beyer; 22%-winning jockey-trainer combo but the barn is just 1-for-18 dirt-to-turf since 2012.
Invincible Me
Sire is 59-for-478 with 1st-turf runners; 110-for-816 with debut starters; is out of a 1-for-6 dam (19K) who finished off the board in her only grass start; she produced 6 winners from 6 other foals to race; 4 runners on turf are 0-for-26 combined; trainer nails 23% firster winners since 2012.
All That
Sire is 6-for-28 with 1st-turf runners; 3-0-1-2 dam (6K) did not race on grass; only other foal to race is 1-for-9 turfer Silver Sycamore (20K); winning-fresh barn for a 32%-winning SAR jockey-trainer combo since 2012; the debut runner-up finisher graduated next out in a BEL-MSW with an 81 Beyer.
Mio d'Oro
Proejcts as the one to catch after racing close to the lead in both grass defeats; held on well in last pair including the 2-back race where he beat the show runner a next-out 86 Beyer AP-MSW winner who repeated in an AP alw. with an 81 speed figure; know him early then hopes to hang on late.
Sire is 27-for-222 with 1st-turf runners; dam went 7-0-0-3 on turf in Ireland; just 1 sibling competed on North American turf (2-for-5 Miss Audrey 46K); dam produced Group 2 Distintction and SW Ivy Creek; improved race on a wet-main track so wouldn't mind this rained off the grass.
Main Man Mike
Claimed off the favored loss and leaps back up to MSW company for this; the winner from last repeated in an AQU-optional claimer with a 75 Beyer; beat the 4th and 7th-place finishers from last who Beyered 75-65 in next-out GP-35K-maiden claiming and WO-32K-maiden claiming wins.
Iron Works
Sire is 22-for-201 with 1st-turf runners; 25-for-299 with 1sters; is out of an unraced dam who produced 3 winners from 5 other foals to race; 2 of 3 to race on turf are grass winners including 66K-turfer Christmas Cove (2-for-11); 20%-winning MSW barn scores just 8% winners with debut runners since 2012.
Rider from first 3 races lands on Red Vine; new pilot for a 28%-winning jockey-trainer combo; has zero gate speed so hopes to save as much ground as possible then make one run; favored loss on dirt when defeated by the runner-up finisher who Beyered 80 in his next-out GP-MSW win then repeated in an AQU-optional claimer with an 83 before finishing 2nd twice in two Grade 2 stakes.

Race 3

Protected in the May opener, freaked in last and the race came back okay; the 4th finisher took a $16K N2L in next out and the 5th finisher beat $25K N2L foes; he has a right to have a nice career as kin to over $260K earner Just a Coincidence; respect his barn.
Poised to a Tee
Consistency has been his calling card; the 5/16 winner repeated in a $22K optional at the shore and place horse 5/16 took a $25K BEL optional next out with a 90 Beyer; far too sharp now not to take seriously.
Nubin Ridge
The fact he won the debut here gives him a shot to fire fresh; off poorly two back, then hung wide; winner of last repeated in a $60K Prairie stakes, then was 4th in a Grade 3; with his style, he has to get the right kind of pace and trip to make it happen.
School Spirit
Nice bit of training to have this guy win in only his third back off the extended layoff; best of 26 bullet drill locked and loaded and this runner has a right to mature with grace as there is an over $600K earner in the family and also he's kin to Big Truck, a G3 winner and near $400K earner; look out.
Thinking of Girls
Don't be too harsh about last; wrong surface; winner of the May finale repeated in a $40K optional, then was 2nd beaten a nose in a $62.5K optional; he brings sub :22 Western speed to the party and figures to be rolling hard at the sound of the bell.
Reggie D
This guy kind of runs the same race every time; he'll dawdle, then kick but too late; he just doesn't have that killer instinct just yet; Levine obviously has a good eye for a claim; another slice?
Hung wide first time he faced winners; the winner that day repeated in a state-bred N1X, then ran out of the money in the Mike Lee; show horse in last beat up on $15K claimers next out, then was 2nd a half in a $25K optional; legit player.
Only a brief factor with the blinks last time; he probably just doesn't want to go that far at this point in time; there seems to be enough zip in here to help promote the late punch; he has the two local spins to get him acclimated; and note he beat $50K claimers three back; respect.
Only 5 races in over 18 months; why?; he does have the pair of efforts to draw from now and it was a tough beat in last; show horse last time cashed in a $35K seller by a nose with a 75 Beyer on 7/5; the hotter the pace the better for this one.
Derby Watch
Don't be oversold by the margin on the win as it was slop aided; he went a bit slower last time and still could not hold; the 5/11 place horse double dropped into a winning $16K maiden fray next out; respect his speed, but you kind of get the feeling if he is looked in eye, he'll blink.
Jacobson wins off the claim again; what a shocker; the 5/2 place horse took a $35K optional next out with a 78 Beyer; like the series of drills since the last race; too sharp not to respect.
Over 4 times as many slices as wins; and that is a concern; he has shown much more speed than he did in the last few races; trainer has spotted them just fine with limited starters this year and note this rider wa sup for the last score; should be around the wire once again.
Over 3 clear despite being forced wide in last; like fact he won off the extended layoff and the blinks could have him much more focused for this; toss the turf debut and the troubled second start and the form brightens; may like it here.

Race 4

Lady Clara
Coupled with Street Crew; seemed to figure things out in the fall of 2011/winter of 2012 when blinkers went on as she gamely beat maidens then ran 3rd in the Busanda; alas, then came 6 months off and her 2 return outings at MTH in July 2012 weren't any great shakes and she hasn't been seen since; that's a long layoff to deal with but she's been working along steadily of late and at least Tarrant doesn't risk her for a tag; but again, that's one daunting layoff.
Sprint debut at CD May 12 wasn't much but the experience apparently helped a bunch as she next gamely beat maidens going a mile June 16; that's a one-turn game at CD so she should have no trouble with this long one-turn game, too; it's first time vs. winners, though, no small matter, and we're no longer in her old Kentucky home; worked smartly twice at KEE prior to coming here so she's apparently feeling good.
Belle Gallantey
It isn't so much she's just 3 for 31 - it's the fact she's been 2nd 11 times, including in 4 of her last 6; she is something of a grinder - she doesn't possess a burst, but instead just keeps plugging along and could it be vs. this caliber she's simply always going to run into someone with more acceleration and oomph she can't handle?
Could be D. Wayne has her headed back in the right direction; things were pretty ugly in her first 6 starts of the year but 3 of those came on turf and the 3 others came in stakes; then at CD June 29 she moved back in vs. N1X foes going long around one turn and voila!; she jumps up with a better run to finish 2nd; that being said, it's not like she was a big threat to winner Elusive Fate as she was beaten 4 3/4 lengths, but that was still a nice move forward and there's a solid work since; note, too, she's kin to G1 SP Big Tiz and G3 SP Lady Chace.
Pow Wow Wow
Good enough to be 3rd in the G2 Forward Gal at GP Jan. 26, though let's face it, she wasn't really a threat to the top 2 as she was beaten 8 1/4 lengths; was then a nice 2nd to the talented Calistoga there but the pattern since is a tad worrisome - 2 months off/so-so 4th at BEL May 8/another 2 months off; at least there's no panicky drop by Trainer Nick and that bullet :47.80B here July 11 encourages; but aside from that aforementioned pattern it's first time vs. elders so that's a hurdle.
Street Crew
Coupled with Lady Clara; cost $350K at auction but she's got a ways to go to pay for herself; did show promise right away, winning her 2nd start at GP in March 2012; however, things haven't gone so well since; did perk up this March when returned to GP as she posted a couple 3rds, but then came 3 months off and a so-so run at BEL June 21; at least there's no drop by Tarrant but if you throw out her 3 GP dirt races things look pretty dicey; maybe pray for rain as that lone win came the one time she caught a wet track; is kin to 2-time G1 SW Critical Eye and G2 SP Glamorista.
Uno Duo
Looks more than a little scary; whipped maidens on dirt at CD May 12, then just missed when 2nd by a neck vs. winners there June 21; not only was she much the best of the rest (7 1/2 clear of 3rd) but the Beyer came back strong (85); worked since and Rosario, who's making quite a name for himself around the country, takes the call; plenty of upside here, too, as she's run just 3 times and is also kin to Etoile Montante (G1 SW, multiple G1 SP in France, G2/G3 SW and G1 SP in U.S.)

Race 5

Street Fight
He looks like he's on top of his game entering this race, and although he'll have to be careful to avoid an early pace dispute, he's ideally drawn in post one at this trip; however, he's probably going to need to see a few of these show up with less than their best to have a shot at the top spot.
He's So Fine
He's Grade 2 stakes placed racing over the main track here, something to consider if this race has to be taken off the turf, but he's going to have to show more than he has over turf if he's to try to secure his first turf win.
Tater Downs
He's won two of three turf starts and this looks like a favorable spot for his first start over the Saratoga turf; add in a top turf barn and the presence of Castellano and there's plenty to be positive about in this direction.
Looking at this as being a pretty tough spot for his first start against winners after earning his first career win against 35k maiden claimers; respect connections, but going to give the nod to others.
Wild Billum
He made his first start for this barn a winning one in his latest outing and that was also his first start over turf; runner up from that race returned to win next out at Bel on 6/5 going 1m over turf vs. 50k OPC's with an 80 Beyer; must consider.
Happy Fella
Not that his route attempts have been poor performances, but feel that a case can be made for this gelding being sharper sprinting than routing; he's going to need to improve over his recent form if he's to put any pressure on the top contenders in this spot.
Vindication Now
He's capable of stepping up with a decent performance from time to time, but he enters this race off of a sharp winning effort, and he hasn't been known to string quality starts together; leaning toward others.
Summit County
Like the idea of him getting back over turf for this, and if he can perform the way he did in his latest turf attempt, two races back at Churchill Downs, he can prove to be a legitimate threat in this spot.
He was Also Eligible in a 20k claimer going 1 1/16m over turf here on opening day, and when considering that he's making his first start back from a layoff, his connections might be giving him a race before trying a turf marathon the next time around.
Santa Elf
Sire wins with approximately 12% of his turf starters and stakes placed dam won 2 of 11 starts for 73k, and she didn't make a turf start; Repole-owned gelding hasn't run a bad race to date and this is a decent spot to find out what he can do over turf; he'll have a live look to him regardless of surface.
Spiral Stair
He ran well to earn his first win at second asking, even if it was against 40-35k maiden claimers, and his connections thought enough of that performance to try him in a stakes in his first attempt against winners; lightly raced runner has his share of appeal in his first route attempt.
He ran well in his only start over this turf course a year ago, and even though he's been tested as a hurdler since moving into this barn, it's probably a good idea to respect him for what he's shown to be capable of in races on the flat; he's an interesting option to consider with Napravnik aboard.
North Star Boy (IRE)
Really liked the effort he showed up with in his first start in America when nearly getting the job done after having to rally in a paceless race, and the horse that beat him that day is in good form right now; he's worth keeping an eye out for in the event that he draws in, especially with Castellano aboard.
Bluegrass Springs
His turf debut sprinting was an encouraging performance, and even though that was a sprint attempt, he does have a route win over dirt on his card; he has a chance to prove to be a solid 35k claim for his current connections, and Ortiz has won with 14 of 41 (34%) mounts for this barn in 2013.
Third Knight
There are a few horses in the main body of this race who sport decent dirt form, including another on the AE list, and this colt has been beaten by a couple of today's rivals in recent starts; nevertheless, he'll have the look of a legitimate contender if he gets to go, and Alvarado has won with 20 of 71 (28%) mounts for this barn in 2013.
Liberal Spin
He had to be dropped in with 50-45k maiden claimers to get his first career win two starts ago and his overall form, including three dirt starts, hasn't been strong enough to help give him a competitive look in this spot.

Race 6

Vinny Goodtimes
Four and a half clear in a finie debut; dam out of the money in only start; this is her first to race; this seems like a pretty soft bunch for the level; slight drop can't hurt, just may be a good thing in an ordinary race.
Easy Reach
Gelding stopped badly in the MSW here back in 2011; there are several winners in the family, none were much stock; homebred does seem to have some agility and the experience figures to only help.
The spotty race record is a concern; he just has had a tough time putting efforts together; apparently not much of a work horse, he sure had to hail the taxi cab quickly in the 2012 closer; would be careful here.
Streets of Fire
Double jumps off the claim for this; note the 6/12 show horse was clear by daylight; finally off the rail this time; wraps re-added in last, try to get a good look at him on the racetrack.
Southern Match
Dixie Union 9% first-time grass runners in a 281-runner survey; sire was precocious enough to win debut at 2, took multiple G1s, earned over $1.2 million, never turfed; 1 for 8 dam took a route, was 2nd in best turf result; 2 of 3 siblings won; one banked over $100K, both tried grass to no avail; has shot to show speed on the stretch out.
Guess somebody had to run second to the clear winner in last; even when he was in the money, he didn't scare the winner; Empire-bred may need own kind.
Jack's Lion
Can't be thrilled with the repeated defeats vs. softer; connections wouldn't mind if he starts acting like top kin Ora, an over $185K earner; not sure how you spin the form of being in double digits every time into a positive stance.
What happened to the speed he flashed back in May?; backers can at least point to the double turf winner in the tree and the Grade 2 winning half bro who make over $300K; towards the outside once again and that has been a down fall of late; has some things to iron out.
This soph is starting to figure it out; the sibling that did win cashed twice, once on grass; like fact runner got a local spin under the girth; he has the two races to draw from; legit player with slight improvement.
Rugged Rascal
A late third despite acting up here in the 2011 debut; nothing but winners in the tree but the one that tried grass lost 4 times on turf; gelding may have disliked the soft going in last and the winner two back repeated in a $25K optional hurdler in Philly for 7th win; interesting.
Tizn't Over
Tiznow about 8% first-time grass runners in a 330-runner survey; sire did not race at 2, earned over $6.4 million as a double BC Classic hero, was never on grass; stakes winning 3 for 13 dam earned nearly $125K, never turfed, was route only; this is her first to race; look for rider to send and try to steal it.
Acadian Connection
Goes long, maybe connections had this race in mind all the time; show horse in the GP finale graduated next out in a maiden $35K claimer, beat $30K N2L foes after that, then ran out of the money twice; respect.
After 14 beats, the wind kind of just goes out of the sails; the one positive about this guy is that there are several 6-figure earners in the family; another slice?
Like a Boss
Tracked slow pace, could not make an impact; pretty snappy blowout on Thursday suggests he is feeling pretty good about himself; owned by the trainer, rates valid glance if lucky enough to suit up.
Never Naked
Runner has natural speed, could show more with the blinks today; 9 for 26 dam earned nearly $200K, was route only; 3 of 5 siblings won, top earner banked about $65K; figures to at least muddle the pace if he rolls.
Let the Cat Out
Realistically placed as a $35K purchase; dam was unraced; both siblings won once, both sprinting; hard to be overly positive the way he caved in last time.

Race 7

Draws the fence for the move to MSWs in her first start in over a year and a half; didn't do much in that debut run but she did have trouble and she is kin to a surface winner so maybe she moves up some over the new footing; low percentage outfit does name a capable pilot but this gal will need to be alert early from here and will likely need the race.
Jennys Creek
Runner up in her last 2 stretches out to 2 turns after getting on track too late in her downstate finale; she does have early lick and that should help her secure a good spot down inside in here; gets another new pilot and she's failed going long in the past, but she can get in the mix here.
As Well
Switches back to Rosario after making a nice late run while sprinting in her return from nearly half a year on the shelf; can't be dismissed off what she showed in that one, but neither of her surface routes last fall was much and her sibs have failed to hit the board in all 4 of their combined turf tries.
Chow Fun
Wasn't beaten much in either of her 2 downstate surface routes and now she'll turn back a panel; don't know that the pace in front of her will be much, but expecting to see her a little stronger late in the lane today and the price should be right.
Joy Seeker
Makes her first start in over 6 months with a series of solid recent drills on her tab; sire is 2 for 36 with his first time turfers and the dam was off the board in each of her 3 surface starts prior to dropping a turf winner and 172K earner Princess Mara.
Legally Bay
Failed to get up as the chalk when returning to the races at Finger Lakes last month and now she'll try the lawn for the first time in here for an outfit that doesn't win many races; sire gets 9% winners from his initial surface starters and the SW dam's lone turf score came in the local Yaddo; one of her 3 sibs to try the green won over the stuff.
Absolute Paradise
Took a step forward sprinting in her second start on the green against open claimers; maybe she's on the improve, but she goes for a low percentage barn and will need to take a big step forward to get in the mix for a share of this one; passing.
Atlantic's Smile
Just missed on the wire in her Belmont turf debut second time out and now she'll stretch out to 2 turns for a barn that's profitable with the move; she's already proven she can handle the footing and she's kin to a couple of SW routers - 472K earner Johannesburg Smile and multiple G2 SP Wildcat's Smile who banked 420K; looks like they'll have her to catch and beat.
Field's highest last out Beyer earner found herself well out of it early behind tepid fractions in her downstate finale but still offered some late run from a wide spot; filly may not get a hot clip in front of her, but it does figure to be honest and she does own a couple of solid surface route tries; main danger.
Quiet Kiss
Gets a big rider switch for her initial surface start second time back from the break; filly is by a sire who gets 7% first time turf winners from his offspring and the dam was 0 for 1 on the green prior to dropping foals who were a combined 0 for 9 over it so don't know that she'll move up much over it.
Amazing Abby
She's another trying this footing for the initial time after offering little on dirt; sire gets 8% first turf winners and the dam was 0 for 1 on the green prior to dropping this gal; can only watch her from here.
Adds the hood while drawing the outside slot in her return to the lawn; didn't do much on the green back in the fall and the wide trip did her in while sprinting over wet footing on Belmont Day last out; she has been working well of late and one of her 2 sibs did win 3 times on the grass.
It's Your Dime
AE removes the hood if she gets to go in this spot after faltering as the chalk while sprinting in her first start of the year; filly is quick so maybe that helps her overcome the outside gate, but she's had her stamina issues so the trip looks to be a concern.
Life's a Stage
AE earned a pretty good number from a draw similar to where she'd start from if she gets in here in her most recent Belmont run; while she had trouble in that one she was afforded a solid tracking trip through soft splits and still had little left for the drive; siding with others on the win end.
Carole Lee
MTO was ok sprinting against cheaper 2 back at Belmont, but wasn't close to the winner on the class rise last time and she'll try better in this spot; pedigree doesn't suggest a big step forward over the likely wet track she'll face is forthcoming; just watching.
TO was stuck in a wide spot in her return from the freshening and didn't do much running thereafter; she is kin to several winenrs including SW New York bred and 312K earner Tommasi so maybe she'll have some more to offer with that last one behind her if this one comes off the green.

Race 8

Hear the Footsteps
His overall form has been solid, and like to see that he's had some success over the Saratoga turf; however, he will need to dial up a career best effort to beat this tough bunch of turf sprinters; Ortiz has won with 14 of 41 (34%) mounts for this barn in 2013.
Have to respect the winning performance he showed up with in the Quick Call over this turf course and at today's distance at about this time last year, but this is a much tougher assignment and his best race appears to be short of the mark of what it will take to win this.
Barrel of Love
Stakes placed veteran looks like another in here who finds himself facing an extremely tough task, and in a race where the winner figures to earn a Beyer Speed Figure in the upper 90's, his career best figure is an 87.
Multiple stakes winner was incredibly sharp in recording back-to-back wins at Gulfstream Park over the winter, and maybe he deserves an excuse for his latest effort as it was his first start back from Dubai after facing the likes of Shea Shea; he's a legitimate player if he brings his "A" game to the table.
Strong Impact
He was ready to roll after a layoff in his latest outing, and he got the better of today's rival Spring to the Sky in that race, but that rival isn't his biggest concern in this spot, and a career best effort will be needed to come out on top.
Tightend Touchdown
He's been very impressive since being placed back over turf three starts ago and this stakes winner has to be viewed as being a top contender in this spot; however, there might be something to be said for Castellano piloting another in here, even if Ortiz is a go-to rider for this barn; have to respect his chances regardless.
Next Question
He's a Grade 1 winner sprinting over turf and he's going to appreciate getting back over grass after a sloppy and synthetic surface start; also, note that blinkers are going back on for this; leaning toward others, but he's clearly capable of making his presence felt against these on his best day.
Longhunter (GB)
He's just looked look a different horse since moving into this barn and his latest race was really a remarkable performance when considering how poorly he came away from the gate and how easy he made it look in recording an open lengths victory while earning a 96 Beyer; it looks like Castellano opted for this one over Tightend Touchdown.
Spring to the Sky
Like what he's done in his starts sprinting over turf, and even though he was beaten by today's rival Strong Impact in his latest outing, he seems much better suited to a 5 1/2f turf dash like this; note how well he ran against Ben's Cat two starts ago and that Ben's Cat beat Tightend Touchdown on July 5.
Doctor Chit
Stakes winner is an interesting option to consider in here, even if he doesn't boast the turf form that some of his rivals in here do; he's run some very strong races over dirt and he's by a sire that has a big reputation for turf success; winner from latest won next out at Mth on 7/7 going 6f in a 76k stakes with a 98 Beyer.
Great Attack
He can be very good sprinting over turf, particularly when fresh, but have to wonder how he'll perform in his first start back from Dubai, something that might have been a problem for today's rival Varsity; regardless, going to respect him for the type of performance he's capable of on his best day, and Rosario has won with 19 of 59 (32%) mounts for this barn in 2013.

Race 9

All in Blue
After being looped by favored Patent entering turn, this gray attacked from outside, opened up decisively, and coasted home under hand ride; barn won 2011 Sanford with BEL FTS winner Overdriven; quick from gate, but must work out trip from rail with other speed outside; respect.
Southern Blessing
No surprise at CD, but worked hard off tracking trip to win slow heat; 2nd-finisher came back to place twice (64, 62 Beyers at DEL, MTH respectively); 3rd-finisher returned to run 1st, but was dq'd at CD, then placed 4th in Bashford Manor behind Debt Ceiling; has upside and benefits from fast pace; needs Beyer boost.
Debt Ceiling
Versatile, battle-tested colt tracked blistering pace duel in fast-early, slow-late Bashford Manor before attacking 3 wide on turn; opened up at will, drifted out a bit in upper stretch, and was geared down final 16th; capable of good trip tracking speeds; don't ignore.
Wired Bryan
Brushed away two pace challengers en route to impressive hand-ridden debut; takes big step up, however, as 2 of the 5 NY-breds he beat were fillies (both entered in Friday's 5th); expect another speedy try from intriguing gray.
Jake's Magic Hat
Imposing colt broke outward, but soon righted himself to prompt pace while 3 wide. took over midstretch, was kept to task, and galloped out nicely; both 3rd- and 4th-finishers came back to lose at short odds (57, 66 Beyers respectively); with alert break, may work out good trip from outside; not out of this at solid odds.
Hollywood Talent
Although part of hot pace in Bashford Manor, it's worth noting that late-runners never made impact; pressed from outside, but seemed to take a bad step over wet going and was steadied; lost momentum and was looped by winner, but re-rallied gamely for 2nd; figures part of early picture, but must avoid prolonged duel.
Yes Liz
16K short yearling resold for 200K in April; filly looked good at BEL; battled with 2nd-choice (finished last) early and had that one off bridle after 2F; immediately faced and rebuffed Majestic Serenade's challenge under confident handling; draws good attack post and should be respected despite facing males.

Race 10

All Mine Tonight
The 1st start facing winners is often any runner's toughest assignment but clearly a good sign that her 1st race for a new trainer produced the graduation win and a 46-point Beyer speed figure improvement; high-percentage repeat trainer adds to the appeal but the win rider lands om Make the Moment; figures to save ground from mid-pack then make 1 run.
Superb-30% win trainer with long-layoff starters since 2012; wish the worktab stood out more for this; career-low Beyer in her only fast-main track start; will save as much ground possible from an inside draw likely tracking the frontrunners from mid-pack; graduated on a wet track but could not handle Agilion when last seen over less-than-fast footing.
Trainer is 1-for the last-16 with long-layoff runners; this consistent sort has never finished off the board including a debut win on SAR dirt; she is also stakes-placed over the track; the winner from last repeated in an AQU-optional claimer with a 61 Beyer; projects to race far back early then hopes the speed collapses in deep stretch.
Tina's Note
Figures to stalk the pace showing the best gate speed from the first 4 posts so should work out a good-ground saving trip getting 1st run on the closers; was claimed off a 5% win barn by the new trainer who is 0-for-4 first-off-the-purchase since 2012.
Make the Moment
Rider from last pair stays here despite seemingly having other options; hopes to settle in early then make 1 big-late run; just missed in last at today's distance which seems to fit her very well; been a new runner since the May claim when defeated by the winner who repeated in a BEL-20K claimer with a 74 Beyer.
Light Beyers for both races showing the debut win over a wet-main track; that type of surfaces moves her way up; the show runner from the turf loss Beyered 67 in a next-out DEL-30K-claiming victory; projects to race on or close to the lead; trainer is 1-for-3 since 2012 with turf-to-dirt runners.
Run a Dubb Dubb
Projects to race mid-pack then make one run but should appreciate the added distance noting her last win picture was at today's stamina test; graduated at 1 Mile so might be very best at longer than this; rider of her last 2 wins lands on City Gone Wild who beat her 3 races ago.
City Gone Wild
Stakes-placed 1st off the claim but the Beyer took a hit and came back light when racing over a muddy oval; has never been on the lead but projects as the one to catch after chasing a 21 and 2 opening quarter from last; also entered at 5.5F as a Main Track Only July 19 SAR 6th.
What the Frost
Great sign that her 1st start away from a high-win percentage trainer pproduced a victory and new Beyer-career Top; she is another runner who figures to sit just off the other gate speed signed on; high-percentage repeat barn and jockey-trainer combo adds to the appeal.
She's Stones Sis
Have to go back to February to see a race this short on her form; was outfinished in last vs. the winner who repeated in a BEL-optional claimer with an 85 Beyer; today she projects to sit back early then hopes to find that late punch to run by the speed; high-percentage route-to-sprint barn adds to the appeal.
Bird House
Projects to rally from far back early; doing the rain dance as her best Beyer was accomplished over a less-than-fast main track; the 3-back show runner Beyered 80 in a next-out BEL optional claiming win then repeated with an 83 speed figure taking a 100K stakes; both wins occurred off 45 day-or longer layoffs but is back in the gate today off just a 23 day break.
Kitty Panda
Adds blinkers for the 1st time trying to show improved gate speed; projects to be forwardly placed and might work out a good trip stalking the other gate speed; trainer has a super win record with 1st blinkers trying to avenge latest loss to Make the Moment at today's distance; horse for the course; her only other SAR start was the debut-maiden breaker when favored.
Fiftyfour Forever
Figures to race outside of the other gate speed from a stalking spot; exits a career-low Beyer when finishing last for the 2nd straight start while 3-back was vanned off; tough beat last summer here when necked and owns her best Beyer on a wet-main track; trying to remember when.
8-1 morning-line odds when entered July 20 FL 7th the Arctic Queen H at 6 Furlongs for State Breds with a 50K purse; high-percentage fresh trainer adds to the appeal; projects to race on or near the lead; the winner from last repeated with a 65 Beyer; she beat the 4th-place finisher from last who Beyered 71 in a next-out FL alw. victory.
Copper Bluff
Wide-ground losing trip on tap for this late runner who was also entered July 19 SAR 6th at 5.5F as a Main Track Only; could have used the extra half furlong in last when chasing Run a Dubb Dubb; lone win was racing close to the pace but her good gate speed from the past has been missing in most-recent defeats.
Bit Bustin
View as a major pace presence if in; sharp turf workout for this; she was also entered at 5.5F on turf July 19 SAR 6th; goes for a 22%-winning SAR-jockey-trainer combo; has something to prove off latest fade vs. this same bunch; the 3-back winner repeated to make it 4-for-4 in a BEL 122K event with an 86 Beyer; posted a show finish in the career debut on SAR dirt which adds to the appeal.