07/18/2013 10:59AM

Closer Look: Saratoga July 19, 2013


Race 1

I'll Call
Full brother to multiple graded stakes winner Smart Bid (6-26, $1 million, including 4 of 16 turf starts for 826k) has been beaten as a favorite in his two most recent races, but he's really done little wrong in his first three starts and he's eligible to still have more to show us.
Wayward Sailor
Consistent performer has some early speed to employ after breaking from an inside post and it's interesting to see Castellano getting aboard for this; however, this colt is going to need to show up with an effort that earns him a career best Beyer Speed Figure to beat these and this barn is 0-for-22 with turf starters.
You have to go back to July 2011 to find the last time this multiple stakes winner recorded a victory and his latest effort was just an even performance; prefer to look in another direction.
Money in Motion
It looks like Ortiz might have opted to pilot Minister Colin in here, but have to respect this runner with John V. taking over, and his game has taken a noticeable turn for the better since being placed over turf a number of starts ago; look for him to be sitting a comfortable trip right in behind the early leaders.
Minister Colin
Have to give him credit for a game victory at a nice price against a small field in his latest outing, and he faced tougher that day; Finale is a graded stakes winner and Film Shot is multiple graded stakes placed; he has a live look to him in his first start over the Saratoga turf.
Royal Blessing
Can't ignore the improvement he's displayed since moving into this barn and the runner up from his latest race returned to win next out at Bel on 7/14 going 1m over turf vs. 35k OPC's with a 101 Beyer; New York-bred faces open company for the first time, but not going to argue with anyone for looking favorably in this direction.
Mahubo (SAF)
He's tough to back in this spot based on what he's been doing lately, but there was a time when this stakes winner was more than capable of showing up with a competitive run against competition of this caliber.
State Flag
He's making only his second start for Ramsey and Maker and this owner-trainer tandem has won with 83 of 276 (30%) starters in 2013; he looks like he's going to have to dial up a career best effort to beat these, but he's still tough to ignore with Rosario aboard.
Which Market
Stakes placed gelding is a good fit at this level of competition and he ran well to be fourth the first time he raced over this turf course, and his only other Spa turf attempt was against Optimizer; Wilson gets live calls for this barn sporting an 8-1-2-4 mark the past two years.
Cheyenne Nation
When considering the long layoff, his connections had to be pleased with his latest start, and he didn't miss the show spot by all that much; he's the only one in here with a win over the Saratoga turf and he appears to be well meant with Napravnik taking over.
Newfound Zapper
3-year-old is meeting older rivals for the first time and he's eligible to be ready to show some improvement while making his first start since February; runner up from latest won next out at Kee on 4/5 going 1 1/16m in a G3 with an 89 Beyer; sharp recent workouts help add appeal.
Hardest Core
His form has improved with the addition of Lasix and the horse he chased to the finish last time returned to finish 3rd, beaten a head, in the G3 American Derby at Arlington Park on July 13; he has to be respected as a contender against these.
Midnight Taboo
This looks like it would be an ideal spot for this colt to land in if this race has to be taken off the turf, and he seems very likely to bounce back with a sharper run after taking a shot in the Belmont Stakes; first call for Velazquez.
Cary Street
He's proven to be quite the 10k claim for his current connections and it looks like the addition of blinkers has played a big part in his improved recent form; third place finisher from latest won next out at CD on 6/30 going 1m vs. N1X rivals with an 85 Beyer.
He was a sharp winner in breaking his maiden when last seen and note that was his first start with Lasix; third place finisher from latest won next out at Bel on 6/22 going 1 1/4m over turf vs. MSW rivals with a 75 Beyer.
Most Happy Fella
Stakes placed veteran usually shows up and gives a solid account of himself and like to see what he's done from seven starts over the main track here; he'll probably employ his early speed to try to take it right at this field after breaking from the outside.

Race 3

Crystal Rocket
3.2K short yrlg, 14K RNA yrlg, 57K 2yo after breezing 1F in 10.1; sire 5-55 (9%) 2yo FTS; multiple SW dam (213K, 2-2 at 2, 4-9 sprinting) has 4 winners from 5 runners (1-3 with 2yos, FTS winner, 3-5 sprinters); dam 1/2 SP turfer Titan of Industry (152K); barn 0-40 past year with FTS.
75K wnlg, 150K ylg, 200K 2yo after breezing 1F in 10.2; sire 55-393 (14%) with 2yos; unplaced dam (0-2, all sprints at 2) has 2 winners from 4 runners (0-2 with 2yos, 1-4 sprinters); dam 1/2 G2 turfer Pine Dance; not disgraced vs. Schuylerville entrant True Blue Nation; barn does well 2nd-out with 2yos; factor.
Stormin Mary
21K yrlg; sire 35-291 (12%) with 2yo FTS; dam won sprinting (22K) and has 2 winners from 3 runners (1-1 with 2yos, FTS winner, 2-3 sprinters); dam 1/2 multiple SW Bold Comic (220K); barn 0-12 past 5 years with FTS; 6/23 work matches barn's entrant in R5; some price potential.
47K yrlg, 220K 2yo after breezing 1F in 10.1; sire 82-470 (17%) 2yo FTS; 1st starter from multiple SW dam (257K, 1-4 sprinting); dam 1/2 SW turf router See Tobe (227K); barn 31-98 (32%, $2.57 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS in Spa dirt sprint MSW; several works match up with entrymate; contender.
Full sis G1 2yo sprinter Dublin (438K, 2-5 at 2) and 1/2 to G2 SP sprinter Mike's Classic (328K, 0-2 at 2); sire 14-150 (9%) 2yo FTS; dam G1 sprinter (716K) and has 9 winners from 11 starters (3-7 with 2yos, 7-11 sprinters); dam 1/2 multiple G1 Missy's Mirage (838K); barn 1-32 (49-1 winner) past 5 years 2yo FTS dirt sprint MSW at Spa.
J. Quirk
150K yrlg, 110K RNA 2yo after breezing 1F in 10.0; sire 43-340 (13%) 2yo FTS; dam won on turf at 2 in Ireland and has 2 winners from 2 runners (2-2 sprinters); dam 1/2 multiple G1 router Tiznow (6.4M); barn 0-40 past year with FTS; interesting pedigree.
Art of the Game
Sire 42-262 (16%) 2yo FTS; dam multiple G1 SP on turf (293K, 0-1 sprinting) and has 0 winners from 1 starter (0-1 at 2, 0-1 sprinting); dam 1/2 SW turfer Megantic (295K); barn 1-51 past 5 years with 2yo FTS in Spa dirt sprint MSW's.
Our Amazing Rose
325K 2yo after breezing 1F in 9.4; sire 57-397 (14%) 2yo FTS; unraced dam has 1 winner from 1 runner (0-1 at 2, 0-5 sprinting); dam 3/4 sis G3 router Minister's Melody (451K); barn 31-98 (32%, $2.57 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS in Spa dirt sprint MSW; 7/6 work matches barn's 2yo Danza (won debut 68 Beyer 7/12); looks quick.

Race 4

Not only nice to see Servis claimed her last time May 23 (30% off the claim), but after freshening her he opted to bring her back in a real tough spot like this; that speaks of confidence; that being said, she's still winless on turf, facing some nice turf gals, including Princess Mara who beat her fairly easily in that May 23 dirt race; and then there are others that look tougher than 'Mara; in other words, she seems to have to work cut out for her.
Lady On the Run
Has 1 2nd from 2 turf tries but both came a long time ago as she's been on a steady dirt diet the past couple seasons; has been facing some nice NY-bred stakes types but again, that's come on different footing and at trips shorter than what she tries today so she's not only dealing with footing on which she's a question mark but with a distance at which she's unproven, too, going up against a few gals who consider this their forte.
What a nice gal; been a real pro for a few years - hey, you don't win 10 of 21 by accident; had a superb 2012 and things were off to a rousing start this year as she won the G3 Beaugay at BEL May 4; however, her next 2 were disappointing; then again, those were still G2 and G3 foes and the footing both times was very trying so you can be forgiving; back in vs. NY-breds today, a group she's pretty much dominated the past couple years; may well continue to lord over them, though those last 2 outings do raise the spectre of whether that Beaugay win may have taken something out of her.
Inimitable Romanee
Tough beat in the Mt. Vernon at BEL June 1 as she stalked the pace, took the lead in midstretch but just couldn't fend off the sharp Shakeira in the final strides; must deal with that foe again, as well as Hessonite and other toughies; just 1 for her last 12 so that's a bit annoying but if Shakeira is a player here (and she is) then doesn't this gal's proximity to her in the Mt. Vernon say she can be a player, too?; darn tootin'.
2nd to Hessonite in the Ticonderoga at BEL last Oct. 20 but she's been perfect since, winning 3 straight including a game win in the Mt. Vernon vs. this kind at BEL June 1; she's been dynamite for some time as she's posted 10 top-2 finishes in her last 12 starts - and the 2 times she wasn't 1-2 she still ran 3rd; looks as though she might be better than ever and note 2 big wins on this course last year so you know she likes it here.
Mystic City
Comes off a nice SW on PID's Tapeta Track June 30 and the gal she beat back into 2nd is proven graded stakes performer Hooh Why; that was on synthetic, yes, but she's shown she can play this game (3 wins) as well; trouble is, when she's tried this game vs. this caliber she's found these waters a tad too deep, losing to Hessonite the last 5 times they met and to Shakeira the last 2 times they met.
Dreaming of Cara
Been knocking heads with these for a while now; trouble is, she's usually ended up getting the short end of the stick as Hessonite and Shakeira have routinely finished in front of her; last 4 forays into the NY-bred turf stakes waters have seen her finishing 5th, 5th, 6th and most recent 4th in the Mt. Vernon; that was her first start in 6 months so she may improve, but can enough to challenge these gals?
Princess Mara
Contessa saw fit to plunk down $35K to claim her out of a main-track sprint at BEL June 13; she didn't run so well that day (6th) which was disappointing since she'd won her 2 prior starts; one of those came on turf, which is nice, though it also came vs. $16KB claimers so those were much softer than she faces today; seems to be biting off an awful lot, but maybe Contessa entered with an eye on the sky; after all, she's 2 for 4 on wet going so if some rains come and this gets moved off she would be a prime beneficiary - and that would appear her best chance, too.
Considering that June 26 run at BEL was her first since Nov. 21 it looks really good that she gamely won; that run looks even better, too, when you note 2 she beat that day came right back to win; gave Shakeira fits here a year ago, though she was no match for Hessonite and Shakeira in BEL's Ticonderoga last Oct. 20; that was on yielding ground, not her favorite, however, so you can be forgiving; can certainly move forward, she was 2nd in a turf stakes at GP in Jan. 2012 to top-class Dayatthespa so she's got quality as well as the tactical speed to avoid getting hung out to dry and to get a real nice trip.

Race 5

3/4 sis SW turf router Hangingbyathread (307K) by 8-83 (10%) 2yo FTS sire; dam won on turf at 2 (39K, 0-1 sprinting) and has 4 winners from 4 runners (0-2 with 2yos, 1-3 sprinters); dam 1/2 multiple SW Senate Appointee (543K); barn 1-26 past 5 years 2yo FTS in NY-bred MSW dirt sprints at Spa.
Flying K C
37K yrlg RNA by 82-470 (17%) 2yo FTS sire; dam SW sprinter (188K, 1-2 at two) with 2 winners from 2 runners (1-1 with 2yos, 0-1 sprinters); barn had 2yo FTS winner Pure Gossip (37-1) in NY-bred dirt sprint MSW on Spa Opening Day '11; interesting.
1/2 to 2yo SW sprinter I'm a Numbers Guy (195K, FTS winner) by 8-83 (10%) 2yo FTS sire; dam won sprinting (236K) and has 6 winners from 9 runners (4-7 with 2yos, 2 FTS winners, 6-9 sprinters); dam 1/2 G3 SP router Fellow Traveler; barn 1-5 (20%, $2.84 ROI) 2013 all FTS.
Her Majesty's Own
Sire 36-344 (10%) 2yo FTS; dam won sprinting (23K) and has 1 winner from 2 runners (1-1 with 2yos, 1-2 sprinters); female family G1 sprinter Kelly's Landing; barn 0 for last 24 with all FTS dating back through 1997.
I'm Gonna Flip
1/2 SP router Smokin Candy (136K, 0-3 at 2, 1-8 sprinting) by 183-1018 (18%) 2yo sire; dam SP routing at 2 (91K) and has 1 winner from 3 runners (0-2 with 2yos, 1-3 sprinters); dam 1/2 SP router Seattle Schifty (114K); seemed uncomfortable in between early debut; expect improvement.
Sire 22-182 (12%) 2yo FTS; unraced dam has 2 winners from 4 runners (1-1 with 2yos, 2-4 sprinters); 2nd dam is G2 Thirst for Peace; barn 0-16 past 5 years 2yo FTS.
Irish Sweepstakes
40K yrlg by 29-222 (10%) 2yo sire; dam won on turf (83K, 0-1 at 2) and has 1 winner from 2 runners (1-2 with 2yos, 1-2 sprinters); dam 1/2 multiple SW Ava K (201K); rushed wide to challenge impressive winner before tiring 6/19; logical.
Talk to Me
1/2 multiple SP Wild Berry (254K, 2-6 at 2,, 3-20 sprinting), SP router Berrytime (53K, 0-3 at 2, 0-4 sprinting) and SP router Berry Bound (160K, 3-15 sprinting) by 22-169 (13%) 2yo sire; dam a winner (100K, 1-2 at 2, 2-7 sprinting) and has 5 winners from 6 runners (2-5 with 2yos, 2-6 sprinters); chased Schuylerville entrant in fast heat; fits well.
Mary's in Utopia
1/2 SP sprinter Amalfi Drive (46K, 1-3 at 2, 3-12 sprinting) by 2-57 (4%) 2yo FTS sire; dam placed sprinting and has 1 winner from 4 runners (1-2 with 2yos, 1-4 sprinters); female family multiple G2 Valay Maid; barn 0-12 past 5 years with FTS; 6/23 work matches barn's entrant in R3;

Race 6

Uncle Southern
Looked like a different animal when in against the boys and moved to the lawn in her second career start here last summer; maybe she responds positively to the change in scenery and the limited worktab for her return from 9 months on the shelf is improving; expect they'll push her hard from the bell as she tackles older for the initial time.
Invading Humor
Ran well for second money when in against conditioned claimers at Belmont in her initial surface start; she'll move back in with statebred for this and doesn't break particularly well so she could find herself buried down inside quickly on the cut back today; prefer others on the win end.
Local maiden breaker brings plenty of speed to the table after holding on to beat limited winners at the trip on the Monmouth lawn last time; maybe that was the confidence builder she needed and it's nice to see Lezcano take interest, but she may feel some pace pressure from the inside here and it's tough to overlook the fact they were willing to lose her last time while still eligible for this condition; prefer to beat her on the win end.
My Uptown Gal
Found 7 panels a litte too much for her when stretched out for her first crack with winners nearly 8 weeks ago; like the way she settled and finished to break her maiden frst time on the green and the shorter trip should help, but this barn has had a rough season.
With Honorandgrace
Sophomore tries older for the initial time in her first start of the year; she hit the bench off a weak dirt try in her first try with winners but she did run her best on the green last year and does have local course experience; new outfit does an excellent job with its returnees.
Mighty Reward
Tenth time proved the charm for this gal as she broke through to beat claimers from the downstate fence last time and now she'll tackle winners; maybe the career best number she earned in that one is a sign she's a new runner, but she did get a nice pace setup in that one and would need to keep moving forward to prove any type of threat.
Heading to Toga
Cuts back to a sprint trip at which she broke her maiden first out here last summer; filly hasn't been as good since, but she did take a good step forward on the figure scale last time and maybe the return to this one turn trip helps move her forward; price warrants her a look.
Irish Whisper
Didn't have much to offer second out on the Belmont main after breaking her maiden impressively first time out; filly did encounter some trouble as the beaten chalk in that one and the statebred SW dam's 2 wins did both come on the green; sire gets better than 8% first time surface winners from his offspring.
Neck of the Moon
Castellano sticks with this absentee whose been on the shelf since the well meant debut score at the local trip last summer; barn excels with its comebackers and this gal has been working well of late for her return to the races; she's got a right to be faster with some maturity in her and we know that she's capable of firing off drills; contender.
Fantastic Eyes
Made up some ground in the lane into a moderate clip at a longer trip while stepped up to face restricted stakes peers; pace in front of her will be honest, but as it is she's a late runner and the cut back suggests she'll be even further out of it early which could leave her with a lot of work to do in the lane.
Fresh filly boasts a sharp local gate drill for her return from 5 months on the bench for a barn that has hit at a weak clip this year; showed some speed on the course before fading going long last summer and she is a turf SW but her running lines prior to the time off are rather ugly.
Bit Bustin
Outside drawn filly tries the lawn for the first time in this spot; she's shown solid tracking speed in her last couple of main track starts at the level and she did breeze well over the green up here earlier in the week; sire is 0 for 5 with his first turfers and the dam's foals are a combined 0 for 5 on the green.
AE adds shades if a scratch allows her to make her turf debut in this one; she got the tightener in her on Independence Day and though her sire gets just 6% first surface winners from his offspring, each of the dam's 3 other foals to race is a turf winner.
Ave's Halo
AE exits a troubled downstate run in her return from 8 months on the shelf; she did run well over the local green last summer, but that placing was the lone time she's hit the board in 7 career turf spins.
Copper Bluff
MTO was doing her better running late in her return from the break at Belmont last time; maybe she's better for the try, but she doesn't have much lick and she's yet to even hit the board in 3 wet track spins and that's the condition she'll likely get if this comes off.
City Gone Wild
Ran ok for second money in the mud against a stakes field of her peers at Finger Lakes while making her first start off this outift's claim; filly has earned some solid numbers at one turn and the wet track should benefit her, but she's another who doesn't have much early foot and it's not always easy to make up ground in the lane in the off going.

Race 7

Googleado (ARG)
The one to catch for a 9%-trainer 1st-time out with newly-acquired runners; owns strong gate speed but must outbreak Titletown Five and Ithastobegeorge to make the front here; away since tiring to the winner at shorter who repeated in a CD-optional claimer with an 89 Beyer speed figure; the 3-back runner-up finisher won next out in a CD alw. with an 82 Beyer.
Massive class relief off the stakes losses just missing 2-back with a career-best Beyer at today's distance adds to the appeal; 32%-winning fresh trainer with the lone concern being whether he handles SAR dirt today or not; saves ground stalking behind a good pace then should be tough to hold off late.
Coin Flip
Just 2 career starts so still has plenty of upside; favored with winners then was troubled during the running; new rider yields 22% winners for the trainer since 2012; figures to sit off the inside speed then hopes to work out a clean trip and grind out the win; have mixed reviews from the SAR worktab for this.
Titletown Five
1 SAR fast-main track start was a neck loss vs. the winner who repeated in an AQU Grade 2 with an 87 Beyer then made it 3 in a row in a BHP-Grade 1 with a 92 speed figure; last-place finish in the Preakness but when on his best game flashes good gate speed; expect to see him break better for this; grass debut showed an improved effort but his best game was on the lead at 7F on CD dirt.
Wall Dance
Late runner needs a hot pace to rally into here; 1-for-12 record and winless on dirt are the big issues; the runner-up finisher from last Beyered 81 taking a BHP alw. event next out; he beat the 6th-place finisher a 95 Beyer next-out BHP alw. victor.
Strike One
Just missed vs. the winner from last who repeated in a CRC Grade 3 stakes with a 90 Beyer; beat the 4th and 8th-place finishers fron last 84-65 Beyer next-out CD-40K and IND-25K-claiming winners; working well for this and lone issue is whether he handles SAR.
New Line
The runner-up finisher from last Beyered 91 in his next-out 107K- stakes win; beat the 3-back runner-up finisher who Beyered 79 in a next-out PIM-MSW win on his way to 3 in a row with 80-76 Beyers in PRX starter alw. and PIM alw. wins; career debut on a wet SAR oval when defeated by the show runner who Beyered 78 in a next-out SAR-MSW win.
Indy's Illusion
Cuts back to his shortest-distance test since the SAR runner-up-maiden finish last summer; took on the Kentucky Derby winner Orb twice in 3 losses in 2013 but showed up with his best Beyer 2-back and seemed to get better with blinkers added; lone win in the mud and his SAR race was also on a wet-race track which would move him up.
Sayler's Creek
New blinkers and barn for this off 2 races vs. winners produced 2 last-place finishes; the runner-up from last Beyered 97 in his next-out AQU-G3 stakes win; was easily handled by Indy's Illusion chasing Orb the Derby winner 2-back; lone win and best Beyer at longer; hopes the new blinkers keeps him closer to the pace.
Winless since the career-best Beyer August, 2011, when claimed but was taken back by that barn since then; that victory was right here at SAR and at today's 7F distance; exits his lowest Beyer since the re-claim; the 2-back winner repeated in a BEL-147K stakes with a 105 Beyer; beat the show runner 2-back who Beyered 103 in a next-out BEL-optional claiming win.
The 1st start vs. winners is often any runner's toughest assignment as he gets a major class test taken from a maiden claimer and facing runners who leave graded-stakes company; SAR debut was over a wet track and produced a career-low Beyer; the 2-back winner and runner-up finishers Beyered 96-89 in next-out AQU-71K stakes and MSW wins.

Race 8

The class is there off the two stakes wins last year and runner is repeatedly proven at this demanding distance; up against it in the slop this year but the Malibu in 2012 closer came back live; the 6th finisher took the Grade 2 San Fernando next out, show horse cashed next out in a $76K stakes and Jimmy Creed took a G2 in next with a 102 Beyer; the bullet on the 1st was 2 ticks faster than a Ward trained maiden; he has the two races under the girth, can't be dismissed.
Hello Lover
A win machine last year, this race is a far cry from beating up on state-bred foes routing two back; hung wide in last, the good news is this guy is a distance specialist and there seems to be enough speed here to make an honest pace; place horse in the 5/18 win returned to lose twice since, once in a $14K claimer; must hurry.
Souper Speedy
Toss the mile races and the form brightens; hung 5 wide early in last, he was pushed out and had number put up; the 5/23 show horse took a $25K optional next out with a 103 Beyer; the blood is there for this runner to start as kin to G1 winner and over $1.7 million player Brilliant Speed; 3 career Beyers in a row, can he keep it up?
Sage Valley
The winner of this race last year, Pacific Ocean, was also coming off a defeat in the True North before never looking back in this fixture with a 103 Beyer at 6-1; all good things come to an end and the streak did in this guy's career tough spot; versatile enought to go :21 and change or stalk and pounce, colt got the last furlong in last in his best final 8th of all time, :12.03; just may rebound here.
Jaguar Paw
Runner may be a bit fragile as the races are spaced but when he shows up, he runs; runner has much more speed than he flashed in last and the May 1 show horse cashed next out in a $75K optional in a heater, then ran out of the money; runner bobbled at the break in the only try on the main track here; like the series of drills since the last race, must respect everything from this outfit.
Willyconker (IRE)
Both wins at this distance were recorded at Dundalk in Ireland by a neck and a nose in 1:26 2/5 and 1:25 4/5 respectively; he won off an August to November layoff in that first 7 panel score; the 1:00.14 bullet on the 13th was followed on the tab by a 1:00.65 move posted by Grand Mere, who is 2 for 7 and in her last was 2nd a neck in a restricted $75K AQU stakes; may need softer to shine.
Right to Vote
The runner is entered on Saturday at Ellis in a $50K stakes at 6 and a half furlongs so if he ends up here, connections have to be feeling pretty positive; runner was right with a :45.31 pace but was second a half in a MSW debut on this surface in 2011 with an 81 Beyer; he did only beat 3 to the wire in last and may have to improve big time to repeat.
Laurie's Rocket
Colt could get away on the tote as he is facing some runners that just had his number; the local win came in a MSW in 2011 with a 64 Beyer; looking at a stalk and rally trip here, must respect his consistency but a slice may be the ceiling this time.
Strapping Groom
Jacobson pops off the claim; what else is new?; proven at the trip over a small field, nothing wrong with hitting the exacta in 11 of 19; the last race was his first stakes score but he was 2nd beaten 3 in the Freddy Capaossela in 2010; drawn right, blowout on Tuesday should have him on his toes, since getting off the GP rail last year, this runner has really thrived; legit player with the A game.

Race 9

Jonesin for Jerry
DEL win was faster divison of 2F MSW's by almost 2 seconds; battled with Con Gee (next-out 2nd - 56 Beyer) from 2 path over speed-favoring track before drawing out; improved greatly from debut and may be on dead-send from rail; faces tougher pace scenario, but going right way.
Elena Strikes
Dam was multiple SW at 2 and has also foaled SW router Mambo Train, multiple G2 router Runway Model and SP Texas Kitty; hard-ridden from start, she tracked 3 wide before taking over; acts like she wants the added distance but needs Beyer boost.
Silver Valley
25K yearling (16K RNA 2013) was purchased privately following upset win at LS; got an education last time as was bumped at start and then raced inside before splitting rivals in stretch vs. impressive winner; dam a multiple SW sprinter at 2; switches to Rosario with upside but faces toughies.
Brazen Persuasion
CD win was almost a full second faster than G3 Bashford Manor for 2yo males on 6/29 card; after being bumped at start, she tracked pacesetter through quick splits before reeling that one in and scoring under a drive; goes out for barn that won this in '08 and '09 with CD maiden winners; contender has valuable experience at distance and should show speed.
Showed immense potential winning debut over 2 next-out grads at CD; after being eased off the rail, she cruised up to press 3 wide and crushed her rivals under motionless Lanerie; daughter of multiple G3 router Flying Glitter is 1/2 to multiple SP sprinter Flying Train; may stalk and pounce from outside as very dangerous contender.
Yes Liz
16K short yearling resold for 200K in April and may be the preferred Pletcher with Johnny V. up; looked good at BEL; battled with 2nd-choice (finished last) early and had that one off bridle after 2F; immediately faced and rebuffed Majestic Serenade's challenge under confident handling; draws good attack post and should be respected.
True Blue Nation
Put boots to Predicate (entered in R3) at long odds in debut; made lead without a fuss and put away pace rival Chase My Tail (finished 4th) on turn; bit green as briefly hopped onto left lead after being hit right-handed in midstretch; may have to rate vs. quick foes here and gets big test.

Race 10

Jesses Giant Dunk
Sire has won with 4 of 25 (16%) first-time starters and with 4 of 20 (20%) turf starters, and dam won 7 of 42 starts for 138k, including 1 of 6 turf starts for 26k; this is a pretty tough spot for a firster to land in but his works hint at ability and Espinoza has won with 7 of 21 (33%) mounts for this barn in 2013.
A Better Tomorrow
He has to be respected while going out for Ramsey, Maker and Rosario, but he's been beaten as a favorite in three straight starts, and Maragh did give him every opportunity to win last time, and the best he could manage was fourth; he has to be listed among the contenders, but going to approach him with caution.
Awesome Heart
He's struggled to find a forward gear through the stretch in his races, including his turf debut in his latest outing, and he's going to need to really step up his game if he's to threaten the top contenders in here.
Mister Dooley
Sire wins with approximately 10% of his first-time starters and with approximately 13% of his turf starters, and this is the first foal from a dam who won 2 of 33 starts for 26k, including 0-for-1 over turf; some of his recent workouts look sharp, but this appears to be a tough assignment for a firster.
Brandy's Big Guy
He hasn't finished worse than third since being placed over turf three starst ago, and his dam was a stakes winner who won 7 of 37 turf starts for 349k, but he was beaten by today's rival Trainingforsuccess in his latest outing, and this is an even tougher spot from top to bottom.
Birchwood Road
He showed a little something in his first two starts over the Saratoga turf, pretty solid performances for a 2-year-old, and maybe he just needed his latest race after a long layoff; this is an outfit that was once very well known for the work they do with turf starters.
Hudson Miracle
Not particularly thrilled with the horses that finished behind Papa Freud at Belmont Park on May 18, even if that race has produced a couple of next out winners, and Sunriver has been a poor turf sire; that said, still have to respect this gelding as a contender while going out for one of the sharpest turf barns in the country.
Don't like to see the 0-for-15 career mark, including 13 turf starts, but his career best Beyer Speed Figure was earned the last time he raced over the Saratoga turf, and if he can produce that level of performance against these, he can have a say in the outcome.
Another representative of poor turf sire Sunriver in here, but this gelding has looked pretty good in his four turf attempts, and like the idea of him making his first start routing; he moves back in with maidens after just missing a stakes placing in his latest outing.
His form has clearly taken a turn for the better since being placed over turf three starts back, and even though he's going to need to show us his best stuff yet to get the job done, this really isn't a bad spot for him to meet up with New York-bred competition for the first time.
Like Sonnyandpally, he's a tough one to place confidence in for the top spot when considering he's had many chances before now, but he figures to be forwardly placed through the opening stages, and his best effort can get him into the hunt against these.
Not wild about outside posts at this trip, but post 12 has been particularly troublesome going 0-for-37 over the past 10 years; lightly raced 4-year-old sports improved recent form and he deserves another chance to see what he can do over turf.
Sire wins with approximately 13% of his first-time starters and with approximately 15% of his turf starters, and dam won 4 of 27 starts for 73k, including 0-for-3 over turf; this colt is a 1/2 to Kats Golden Ways (2-15, 127k over turf); a tough outside post awaits this firster if he draws in.
Horses like A Better Tomorrow and Sunnysider will have a live look to them if this race gets taken off the turf, but this still wouldn't be a bad spot for this colt to land in; at the very least, this 100k purchase can be part of the early pace picture.
Face the Race
He has some appeal when considering that he raced alright over dirt at second asking, and that this will be his first dirt start since then, but keep in mind that this is the second call for Rosario in the event that A Better Tomorrow doesn't scratch.
Never Naked
He's beaten just one horse to the finish in his first two starts and the addition of blinkers will have to really help move this one forward if he's to prove to be anything more than an early pace factor.