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A CLOSER LOOK at Louisiana Downs races on 10/04
1st La. Downs
Was sent off favored in his debut and proved to be undeserving of that support; maybe today he will start better and run better as he stretches to two turns; he has worked and might be up to the task at hand for the race is wide open to say the least and it will be decided by those who run better today.
Will also be stretching out after one start and stepping up too; he has a recent work and will use Lasix this time; he might run better or not, but will have to if he hopes to gain anything.
The Prize Of Love
Is one of two with route experience and after trying stakes company following a good route effort he is in for a tag for the first time; the drop and the three interim works could produce better and he does already have the top Beyer on the page; the one to beat.
O K Caracey
Caught the mud for his opener and was never in that race; he does race with claimers today and he will be going long; can see him running better but have little reason to think that it will be enough to win this one.
Big Man Dan
Newcomer drops for a tag following some time off; he starts for a new barn, will race with Lasix for the first time and will be running long as well; he was starting to run a little better in his latest but he still has a long ways to go from there.
Latest was not as good as his penultimate and he is stepped up to try the longer distance along with others in the same boat; he has a nice interim half-mile work; he could run better but the first step to that would be the right first steps from the gate; a possibility, but will give the edge to others.
Man Of Mystery
Dam won a couple of races and this is her first foal and he is by a young sire; has worked well, going to the gate for his final work and runs with Lasix; is one of two from the Norman barn; interesting enough and the longer distance might be right up his alley.
His races surrounding the route race are a lot better and the question is how much of that was due to the off track and how much the distance; he looks very interesting even from the outside post and with the work closer to the last race than to today's.
2nd La. Downs
Has raced three times since the cutoff date and has really not run nearly well enough in any of his races; have to look to others and recommend that you do the same.
My Master Max
Has run four times since the end of June and the last couple of races have been quite decent, at least on a relative basis; he has some better races prior to that date and if he can continue to progress as his early speed improves he should be in contention for a spot on the board.
My Guy Norman
He too has started four times during the qualifying period and has some of the best recent races and is likely to go off the betting favorite one more time based on the recent past; he has four times failed as the chalk and it might be smart to look hard in search of those with a chance to beat him -and he is the one to beat as he goes shorter.
Hale The Bold
The fact that he was sent last time going farther says to go the first part of that race for analysis not the poor finish; in a new barn today he will have to run his best race in a long long time; he is very unlikely to perform well enough with his lack if good races in the last couple of years but one of these days it might happen and the last could be the catalyst for better.
Has a win with easier at an easier spot but one which would make him competitive should he replicate that effort today; he is a closer in a relatively paceless field and will need things to break right for him; he has won here in the past, and might be relevant for the exotics as he moves into a conditioned race,
Is on the comeback trail following an absence for most of the period; that said he will have to run a better race than he has in some time but his latest might be a good starting point to build from and he will be a contender if he does.
Won two over at EvD and then ran very well and his best Beyer in his first start here before a return race in the slop where he could not pass as many; he looks very live to this spot and if he gets a track favorable to his closing style he could outrun these to the wire with a good trip; one to think about.
Turf to dirt and big drop to a new low and he is a speed type on turf in a paceless sprint; all that makes him look like a possibility though his dirt past makes him look very suspect; if, however, he can break running he could be on the lead and might never be caught; if the odds double from his last he might be playable, if they decline the risk that he won't show up may be too high.
Shipper in a new barn also goes turf to dirt but he has wins on the dirt as well; he now looks to be approaching top form and could well have the lead all to himself; will give him strong consideration on the improving form and lone speed possibilities and figuring that he might be around 8-1 will put him on top (only) for a speculative fling, thinking that if he shows up he could win!
Has been racing well recently and should continue to do so again in here; if he is sent he could be well positioned to make the first run to the front ahead of many of the late runners; the recent record says he might be more likely to get a spot on the board than to win.
3rd Louisiana Downs
Dropped in class to state-bred ranks in her most recent start, and she threw in a clunker; connections change things up this afternoon by running her in the claiming ranks for the first time, and she should appreciate the further drop in class; still needs a sharp turnaround to best some of these.
From the second crop of an obscure stallion who earned $40k and who has one winner from one starter; dam is a half-sister to $201k stakes winner Griefnaggrevation, and from three foals to race she has produced three winners, her best being the stakes-placed Kate Regal($67k).
Debuted against tougher and she showed some speed before throwing in the towel in the later stages; the drop to maiden claiming ranks for the first time will help her cause, and she is one who can share were she to run back to some of her promising works; preview in the paddock.
Difficult to get excited about runner who has been beaten in double digits for the better part of her career; the good news is she gets the chance to run with state-breds, and the drop in class to this level could help her cause; would seem to need a sharp reversal of form to get into the winner's circle.
Between Us Girls
Young charge has run two promising races against open foes, and should thrive with the move to state-bred ranks for the first time in her career this afternoon ; she has worked well and run well over the local strip, and from all accounts appears to be the one to beat under high percentage rider Lovato.
Faded some in the later stages last out, and suspect she will be stronger down the stretch this afternoon with the drop in class, and second Lasix; since she did draw a check the last time she raced at this level, it would seem that she is a good fit against these; appears in line for at least a piece.
Ms Lomond's Dancer
Another who gets the chance to run with state-breds after failing to make much of an impact against open foes; given her sire line, as well as her average works, suspect she is one who might get better as the distances get longer; holding out for two turns.
Improved a few lengths in her last start when she dropped in class to maiden claiming ranks for the first time; she takes another meaningful class drop this afternoon with the move to state-bred ranks, and figures to run an improved race as a result; warrants a closer look.
Ran into a little trouble in her debut, but managed to run a decent race for a first-timer; she has been given a nice amount of time to regroup from that race, and shows an endurance minded work for her return; would not be surprised to see well bred sort share under leading rider LeBlanc.
After a promising debut, she seems to have regressed in her last two starts; two races ago she did not break well, and last time she failed to make much of an impact; perhaps the drop to maiden claiming ranks will help her start to turn the corner.
4th Louisiana Downs
If you toss the slop flop, overall her figs fit well, yet she never seems willing enough late to advance for more than a slice; and that's just going short; ground-saving trip could be worth something in such a soft field; the lower rungs of the tri and super are such a total toss-up, you will have to reach deep, even if 'Heiress proves the key player; consider for part.
First State Banker
Could passing three horses sprinting sharpened her up for another stretchout?; seems a stretch; early tactical bid with same two prior went awry when Holdbackthewater & Hurlingham Heiress moved by; 5yo lost interest from there; and hasn't put in a serious stretch run in over a year; no thanks.
Two local efforts to date have produced a 26 & a 38 BSF - not enough; EvD basement claiming late-summer return was headed in the right direction, then detoured into incrementally tougher; conditioned claimers offer some refuge, but 4yo floundered with FG N3L lifers; yet form trough may have bottomed out; any mild bid gives rise to superfecta thoughts.
A Little Magic
Her 3rd with same ties for best last-out finish with Ghazi Straits; which is more a reflection on weakness of this field than anything else; yet even though she's not a mudder, she held her own in local bow and is eligible to maybe upgrade that fig slightly with the trip over the track; looms logical for a Little more trifecta Magic in this spot.
Despite confidence builder in the EvD conditioned claiming basement a monthago (and local a.m. bullet in July), filly was roundly ignored in local return with these same faces; and promptly ran to her 24-1 odds after taking a big swing at the leaders; yet speed is a premium here; could go further with only 'Heiress in pursuit; but been win-or-fold lately; iffy.
First Lasix is the sole angle you have to work with; at least she avoided caboose trip last time; but Hurlingham Heiress had about a pole on her in July; and can't see where this 5yo has come along enough to turn the tables; or even impact exotics; rider shuffle continues; would be a shocker.
Would be the right moment to rebound; anything like the efforts shown in July to August set would be tough to contain here; LeBlanc built his rider's race lead with conditioned claimers just like this one he carried clear in mid-Aug.; 4yo has chance to control this race from the half-mile home; figures the key top-two contender; and exotics might offer bonus in complete scramble.
What was a relentlessly glib surface in the summer is starting to finally yield up some of these last-to-first types in the exotics; 10-1 a slim reward for a mare who hadn't cracked the tri since '99; even shorter odds here with last-out fig dominance; must balance that with the potential for a tardy pace leaving her stranded on the margins; tricky call.
5th La. Downs
Was steadied at the start of her last race then rushed up to get the lead and went on to beat $10K mdn claimers going away by four lengths; she probably won't find these $7.5K N2L rivals much tougher than the field that she just beat, and her speed figure in that race should be good enough to make her very tough in this spot; a clean break from the rail might be all that she needs to lead this field from wire to wire.
Beat $10K mdn claimers going away two races back, then returned to rally five-wide and just miss vs. this kind in her last race; she draws inside today and will probably tuck in on the rail behind Codysbear when that one goes for the early lead; if she finds running room and can save some ground into the stretch, she should mount a serious late threat; she finished in the money in five of 10 starts and figures close again if she gets a good trip.
Wild and Fast
Won only one of 23 starts and didn't finish 1st or 2nd in 10 races this year; showed brief speed and faded badly vs. this kind in her first start at this meet and turned in similar performances in her previous eight races at EvD; she was over 100-1 in her last race and has been over 30-1 in nine of her last 10 races; Curt Borque rides and he rode her to her best finish in her last 10 races, but it would be a real shocker if she beat this field.
After losing her first 20 starts, she was bet down to 8-5 and beat $10K mdn claimers by a neck three races back; she showed little vs. better in her last two starts, but is dropping back to a level where she should be competitive today; switches to Lovato, who is having a very good meet, and should be passing tired horses in the stretch; hard to leave off trifecta and superfecta tickets, despite her one win in 23 chances.
Showed little early speed but closed strongly to finish 3rd vs. this kind in her local debut; she finished on the far outside and just over one length behind Shy Rich in that race; she beat $10K mdn claimers going away by almost five lengths in her previous start at EvD and should close strongly again today; was 17-1 in her last race but will be a shorter price today; Faul rode her in her last and should give her a well-timed ride.
True to Buck
Was 27-1 vs. this kind in her local debut and finished 6th, after breaking slowly; she returned vs. $10K N2L rivals in her last race and was beaten almost 13 lengths at 19-1; she hasn't been close in her last four starts and her best speed figures aren't good enough to make her a threat in this spot; she is dropping in class and switches back to Guillory, who rode her in her LaD debut; her best effort might get a small check.
Showed brief speed and dropped back to be beaten over 14 lengths at this class level on a sloppy track in her last race, but she beat $10K mdn claimers easily on a muddy track in her previous start; her speed figure in her winning race would be tough to beat if repeated today, but she finished about 10 lengths behind Sanddoones in her last race and must deal with that foe again today; the leading rider sticks with her and she looks good if her last race can be thrown out.
Like several others in this field, she showed little in her last race but beat $10K mdn claimers in her previous start; she finished a neck in front of Quiet Tyme in her last, so like that one, she her last race has to be thrown out for her to be a threat here; her win was at EvD, so she doesn't have a good race at LaD; she has one win and one 3rd in eight starts and would need to improve sharply to hit the board today.
Five-year-old hasn't been overpowering in her recent races, finishing far back at 144-1 vs. this kind in her last race, and turning in a similar effort vs. a bit better in her previous race at the meet; she also finished far back in two races at FG in Jan.; she did win one of 19 starts last year, and that win came at this track, but her recent from is just too bad to overlook; strictly for those who are more interested in a long price than in winning.
Toss the Candi
Broke slowly and was badly beaten by N2X alw foes in her local debut but is facing much easier competition today; she closed with a rush to beat $17.5K mdn claimers going away on a sloppy track at EvD in her previous start and shouldn't find this field any better than she beat then; she has a recent win at a higher class level than any of today's foes and could be very hard to contain in the stretch.
Was 2nd on a sloppy track at this class level in her last start, while finishing about 10 lengths ahead of Quiet Tyme and Betcha; her last two good races were both on wet tracks, but she beat $15K mdn claimers on a fast track at OP; she won only one of 15 starts but finished 2nd twice and 4th twice in her last four races, so she is going good right now; she should be close early but would need a bit more stamina to beat this field.
Forced the early pace and hung on for 2nd vs. $10K N2L foes on a muddy track in her last race and led from wire to wire vs. $10K mdn claimers on a fast track in her previous out; she improved sharply when Ardoin took the mount for those two races and he is back aboard today; she has enough early speed to get a good position from the outside post and the drop in class could help her hang around for a major part of this purse.
6th Louisiana Downs
$48K-2yo purchase has been beaten by double-digit lengths at double-digit odds in his first six starts as a racehorse; Salt Lake colt has posted solid local works, and he should benefit with change in scenery; trainer is 7% with new starters; best effort yields minor award.
Louisiana-bred wasn't too interested in routing last time out against open $10K maiden claimers at EvD; he's improved his Beyers with every start against lesser; rider and trainer are looking for their first win of the meet; will have to surprise.
I'm a Lyre colt didn't finish well in his Louisiana Downs debut according to his 28-length defeat; 4yo ran his best race three starts back on the slop (without blinkers) at EvD; in tough again today.
Earned the highest last race Beyer compared to these against $10K open maidens before the two-month lay-off; bay colt has displayed early speed in all three of his LaD starts; gets D Guillory aboard for the wake-up call today; money finish.
Texas-bred lacked a productive rally here in his last against $10K maiden sprinters; first dam has produced five winners from seven foals to race, although this colt will have to surprise for the top prize today.
Couldn't overcome his outside post with his game move last time out in his Louisiana Downs debut; Four Seasons gelding has posted some nice local published works, including his solid half mile work four days back; should move forward off of his last; check tote for value in the bottom portions of the exotics.
Arkansas home-bred had problems in his last against $25K maiden claiming Ooff the turf' routers; 3yo has solid published works since his last, and he worked well from the gate six days back; should fare well with the drop; board finish.
Prince Who Dat Say
Tired after his early effort as the chalk here last time out against state-bred $15K maiden claimers; Zuppardo's Prince colt has hit the board six out of eight lifetime starts; Lovato a plus; major pace factor; money finish.
Glitterman colt was claimed as the chalk in his debut at Lone Star Park; he has four published works over this main surface, and he draws another outside post for his LaD debut; gets the 8% rider aboard for his 20% LaD owner/trainer; should finish in the better half of these.
7th La. Downs
Sweet Potato Patch
Cajun-bred appears to be at a class disadvantage here as she has never done much past the conditioned 15k tag; does have the good speed and being on the rail she might be able to mix it up early; first time on the grass today as well; she will have to move up to stick around.
Little Rose Queen
Back in for a tag today although a much higher one than either the maiden win or the non two tally; more speed, but like Potato Patch, she has not been able to carry it much past three furlongs against this type of competition; also making her turf debut and she will have to relish the surface switch to be a factor from start to finish.
Has had her moments on the grass but they came come around two turns; difficult to gage much off her only recent sprint since it was on the dirt but she does sport a pretty good 4-1-1-1 mark on the main earlier in her career; does not appear to be a serious threat.
One time on the turf and one win and it came at today's distance; this should be a tougher group than shecaught that day but sure like her running style; very nice work between starts and think we finally have a contender.
Seems to be a different filly now that she is three compared her juvenile campaign; proved that that $200 maiden score was no fluke with two more bang up efforts, including one at this level most recent; Arkie-bred may not mind the move to the turf and she gets winning rider once again.
Beaten favorite last three as she was right there only to get outfinished every time; public will likely be all over her again despite her reluctance to win and they may also be blind on the move to the infield for the first time; essential in the gimmicks but the win another matter.
Only out three times this season with the one turf dash being her best; other two subpar efforts may be attributable to the slop and poor gate habits most recently; rider has been regularly involved lately with several trifecta finishes at huge prices; 45-1 in last turf start and while she will not be that price here, 15-1 or better makes her worth a look.
Will draw her share of attention in here as she should as consistent as she has been of late, regardless of surface or locale; career mark in these turf dashes solid and she proved two back that she can rally nicely down the straight; expect further trifecta involvement.
Hard to figure those two poor allowance efforts here before she ventured back to EVD; previous local record was very good; entirely different scenario today with the switch to a new surface; has a little grass in the bottom of her pedigree and perhaps she bottomed in the form cycle and is headed back up.
West Virginia import wanted nothing to do with the slop and a route of ground last time as she was finished long before a half mile; yet another moving to the lawn for the first time and she can scarcely run any worse; way too many questions to be much of a confident play.
8th La. Downs
Red's Cash Ticket
Did not find the local environment as friendly as EVD as he was never involved in recent sprint; little softer spot today and he did break his maiden around two turns; Faul rides elsewhere as Romero takes over the riding chores; others look better.
Might be about due for another big effort as his wins are spaced out every three or four starts; creditable efforts against better in his last two with one of those being against open company; regular rider makes the trip up and he has a couple of wins while very selective about what he is riding; possible sleeper.
Probable pace factor as he gets pretty big-hearted when alone on the lead; unless one of the sprinters stretching out shows some speed, he may indeed get loose early; class level fits and he keeps regular rider; well-suited for another trifecta finish.
Kelli's Got Power
Pedigree is sprint on top of sprint so other than maybe making things tough for Mike up front early, doubt he makes much of an impact; it took a drop down to 3.5k to get his second career win and he looks out of his element here.
This one has not made much noise in over a year and he has had plenty of opportunities; has been facing considerably less than what his is in against today; pass.
Has been the model of consistency since put on Lasix as he has shown up every time they have led him over; equally effective rain or shine although he was not quite successful two back when he had to deal with some slow fractions; major player again today.
Almost triples his claiming price today and that comes on the heels of some indifferent efforts in non three company down South; might improve his position enough in the late going to pick up another minor check, but the win looks like a stretch.
I Belong To Pearl
Curious that after that double digit win here last fall that he has not been two turns since; it has also been a long time since he was in with fellow Cajuns; took a seven week break prior to most recent and picked up right where he left off; as bad as his paper looks, a turnaround improbable but stranger things have happened.
Run For Miles
Barn continues to struggle after a great meeting here last year; did not even show his usual early foot last time before checking out; very difficult to make even a slight case for.
Steady enough sort dating all the way back to the Spring as he usually has a say about the outcome of the trifecta; came from out of the clouds for his last win and he was a non two in one of these non three events; stalked with a lesser degree of success in two since so he might take back and make one run today.
Don't know if it was the mud or the competition last time since he won over a drying out strip the start before; has recovered from dismal efforts before but it took a couple of starts, will wait.
One route try this year not too bad as he made an eye-opening move only to falter in the late going; recent sprint form is good enough for the stretch out and since he has been double digit in price last three, the value may be there as well.
9th La. Downs
Certainly better on the turf once upon a time than her last race shows; went to the front that day and speed was not holding at all; the turf course has been idle since Super Derby and it has been rather dry so might hold on better if she ships early; trainer and rider combo very dangerous.
Much better on the turf lately; has alternate appearances on both surfaces and it has been effective; pace a concern as there are no confirmed speedsters present; still might be good enough for a share.
Angel With Wings
Steady improvement last three and she overcame an overland trip most recent to get the money; has to deal with a little more real estate today but that is not as much of a concern as the fact that she seldom runs the same race back.
Pass The Mercury
Other than the one fairly good fourth place finish, she has not shown much here this season and this will be her ninth trip postward; one previous turf try in line with her form on the main and little to indicate a turnaround here.
First or second in eight of her ten starts a year ago and has just the one bridesmaid finish this year in almost as many starts, descended the class ladder pretty rapidly and is now at the bottom of the scale for the turf; at least the public has not gone bonkers over her and if 3 or 4-1 again, certainly worth a look in the exactas.
Long string of seconds came to an end last time when she failed to fire as the favorite; had not shown much over a wet track previously so she did have a legit excuse; back on the turf today as she should be right in the middle of the fray.
Rozzi's Red Lace
One of her worst defeats of the meeting came on today's surface and that is saying something as little as she has shown on the dirt; training about the same as before she took a break so am not expecting much upon her return.
I'm Not Sure
Most bettors will not be sure either as her turf form is still sketchy; like the way she has been improving and her second grass effort better than her first; will not be far off a soft pace and she may follow through this time.
Just when the public was about to give up on her, she ran a big one last time as she should have been closer after lacking room just when the real running started; lightly raced this year and she may have further improvement in her; very possible.
Likes to come from out of the clouds and owner/trainer has to be concerned about the lack of pace in here; moved up a little in second start back last time but doubt she will see a :47 half mile in this spot; probablynot her best surface either so she looks like a stretch.
Dirt form solid enough but she has not earned a nickel in three previous starts on the lawn; worth a look if the race comes off the turf since she will probably draw in, but the forecast calls for no rain until Friday.
Recently scratched out of a couple of soft spots only to show up a third time way over her head in optional company; back at a winning level today as she makes second start for new barn; leading rider LeBlanc does not have a call in the body of the race so he will ride if she draws in.