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A CLOSER LOOK at Hastings Park races on 10/03
Good Is A Given
Return race was improved and the fast pace he battled on could be the key to running better this time if the pace is more relaxed; he has better races that would be competitive in his charts and one of those came in his second start earlier this year; interesting as that race would put him in the hunt.
Has been away almost a whole year and has several decent works preparing for his return; he would need his best form if he is to have a shot at the money; a questionable play today.
EmD shipper will be making his first local start but has not had a work over the oval and while he has one of the best last-race Beyers and the best of the pace he will have to run his best race or close to it to be competitive; the fact that he is tractable at times is a big plus; can make a race of it if he can run his best, which is a bit of an uncertainty.
Has one of the fastest last races and that was done with an even trip behind an honest pace; he has an interim work though it is somewhat remote; considering the match up he is a threat but he has had his share of chances with 13 local starts; still a contender, but may not be a good bet to win at less than 4-1.
Another EmD shipper has been off form of late and his best race and win came last year and is probably not good enough to win; even with the better Beyer recently he looks very questionable in this match up though he has at least worked over the surface.
Maiden win two starts ago gives him the co-best Beyer of the yea and the fact that he was able to run as well as he did in his latest, his first against winners, makes him of considerable interest; the fewer starts and interim work -a fast half- make him even more so; the contender to focus on and the one to beat.
Has been in form recently winning and then running second with winners; at 3 he can continue to move ahead but he will have to do better if our assessment of others is correct; maybe a good race gets him a spot on the ticket.
Just Like Lori
Sire average in the debut department does well with his 2-year-olds overall; the dam has four multiple winner including a stakes winner Hartley and she herself was a stakes-placed sprint winner of six; should be fit enough off the work tab and is very eligible in this spot for this outfit; consider if she looks the part and takes some tote action.
Sire is well above average with his debut winners; the dam is a stakes winner amongst her 15 sprint wins and she has shown speed in her works and been to the gate last time; barn does its best work with debut winners; have to give her a big shot in here.
Failed to get into her opener at any time and she also ran greenly; would want to watch her one more time and would be looking for her next time (if she runs better) when she gets a little more room to roam.
Katys Turn To Star
Ran earlier in the year when she was bet as part of an entry and she ran an even race after a poor break and running rank; time and a trio of Sept works could lead to better and it would be wise to keep tabs on her pre-race demeanor; would not surprise at all were she to take money again and run well.
Ran earlier in the season and in a stake at two turns before taking some time off to regroup; her race in this class and at the distance may be the best of those who have run and she should be a legitimate contender if she runs back to that today; she adds Lasix and the works could have her ready; contender.
Is the first foal of a placed runner and the sire is more effective at longer distances and older runners; has nice preparation and the barn tends to send ready runners; she is a possibility in an open race though whether or not she has the early speed to contend won't be known until into the race.
Was away a bit slowly and she still ran okay closing ground relative to the pace; she has had time to regroup, she has been to the gate recently and she could be an improved runner now too; have to give her a serious shot in this match up.
By a young sire and from a one-time winner she is the second foal to race; the works are on the slow side and while she is not impossible she would be a surprise in this spot from what the printed page says.
AE is by a modest debut and 2-year-old sire and from a dam who has not had a foal in a while but has had several winners and a 2-year-old winner earlier on; runs with Lasix and has worked well enough if not recently from the gate or without a three-week gap in the pattern; tab for later.
Filly takes on males and will run with blinkers in her first start here and at the distance under lightweight with a new bug; will watch and learn what we can.
Will be making his first start in almost a year and while he does start with Lasix and could be a better runner at 4, he is a tough call today; the positive in his final start at 3 was the improved early speed; he should have a good foundation with the works, but has a lot to do.
Playing these maiden claimers on a regular basis is a risky business and most players who hold their own have rules that they adhere to; he has only been favored once but is starting to give the impression that he might not want to win enough; he certainly fits off the good effort in his first route race but he will be a short price again and may well be a little too risky.
Lets Dream Darling
Has been experimenting with blinkers and Lasix and it is still uncertain just what the right mix is though in for this tag might provide the best clue yet; maybe down here and from this post he will measure up to the others; others look better on form, but he could be a worthy inclusion in the exotics.
Has some experience at the distance and will come back from EmD after some time off; he has an interim work and while he is 3 and they can always improve a lot at any time, he does not look overly promising off the past performances.
Had trouble negotiating the turns in his first route attempt and his latest; while he does go at a new low he is a very questionable call today; the work tab says that he has some ability but getting him to show it when it counts is another story completely.
Like this one about as well as any and he will be tough id he can run his race now that he has experience at the distance and that race with better should make him very competitive if he can run well again; he has a solid 5F work, and they have to beat him...we think.
Top runner from the Blain entry will be making his local debut and his first start for a tag and at the distance; will need to run an improved race which is possible but is a tough call even with the interim work; prefer to observe this time.
Will put the blinkers back on after a good race last time when stretched out again; he has had many races at the distance and class and it will take an improved effort to be competitive -probably- but he does have the good race at the distance and that could be meaningful in this kind of a race.
Second half of the entry has raced here four prior times without making the board; he has two fair wins including a stake at one mile in his only longer race; the Beyers are relevant and while he may not get much today, he may have had a legitimate excuse in his latest and deserves consideration here and down at the bottom of the maiden ranks.
Is one of the teasers in this event; he never really runs a bad race and he also never really does a lot in his races but runs along; if you have rules of play for these lower class races he will probably be eliminated on the "proven loser" rule; he does get in light and will pass others; he also has an interim work; he is a possibility and should be included if you are playing tri's.
Dixie of Perth
Looks to be a much tougher spot for him unless he reverts to some of his previous efforts from the past; based on his races of late he is not likely to get much even with the drop to a new low today; he has worked and has the rail and some progress could be forthcoming soon.
Is another going for a new low today after two wins earlier in the season; he could be headed back in the right direction after a down spike in his cycle and he should be competitive if he runs a better race; contender.
Has come around recently with a couple of conditioned wins and then was claimed from his first race with open winners; there is room for him to improve but would be inclined to see him race at least once as he is in against faster and it will take his best or better to win; others seem to hold the edge though he has worked and improvement often occurs after a claim.
Ran a trio of good efforts right at his best and then tailed off after failing to get away well last time; at least he has come back with a work and maybe the slow start was one-time thing; if he reverts to those good races he should be competitive with one of those good races.
Has run one of the better races at the distance and class this year the day he was claimed and if he reverts to good form and this seems to be the level where he gets claimed and can run his race, he should be competitive with a better trip.
He has four wins this year and will be upped in class again to go back for the claimed price and after a win with easier last time; this looks like a decent field for him to try to run his race -on the pace- and with a decent trip he can make these run to beat him; contender.
His record does look a lot better if you eliminate all but races at the distance where he is four for 11 and has done his best running; he has gone winless this year and that is a concern though he now drops to his lowest price since last fall and that could lead to better as he stretches out and could be very comfortable with today's pace; a wake-up prospect.
A Touch Of Heather
She has been racing well with Lasix and if she can continue to perform in like fashion from another inner post she will likely be competitive again; contender.
Belle 'n' Blue
Has had her hands full of late with several in here and while she might do better from this post she does look to be in a difficult spot if she is to beat all of these; she has been winless in a dozen this season and her best came early in the year; looking to others.
Returns from a layoff with the blinkers on and takes a big drop in class; her first start of this year with better was her best and would make her very much a factor in this class; has a pair of Sept works with the latest 5F work suggesting that she might run well; will leave her in the mix, check her in the paddock and if we like what we see there and on the tote she will be in the mix.
Sophomore has a couple of wins and comes into her first try in this condition off a fast-paced win in the condition easier than this; what she might have to do if she runs back to that is to quicken a bit in the stretch; it looks as if she can clear and get the trip if she can run a similar race; contender if she does and could be tough to catch if she can slow it down early when she will be able to run faster for sure.
Did manage a win at the bottom and but has gone off form since moving into this condition; hard to call one with her record at any time and especially with a recent win and in dull form.
Hold The Sweets
Winner of one is in higher than necessary and has no wins at 3 or 4; she is on the slow side and will need an improved race to be competitive; wait for a better race and then hope that she is placed in the right spot.
Has missed the board but once this year and if playing exotics that makes her a major player which she is anyway; she should get a decent trip again and is one of the most likely in the mix with her recent Beyers in the 60's; she is a contender and should at least be in the exacta if she shows up again.
Has improved throughout the course of the year and would not be out of the question, but she probably needs a race off the layoff; for the exotics perhaps but looking to others for the winner.
Feu On Fire
Is making just her second start of the year but she is in at the bottom for the first time; she has worked back but will need close to her best or perhaps a new top to be competitive against some in-form runners.
Is in shape and goes at the bottom for the first time but will also be shortening up after a series of longer races; at this level she might be able to get going in time but would not be taking too short a price on the front end; definitely a possibility.
Also will be shortening up after some longer tests and she has been coming closer in her last couple; she has run as well sprinting in the past and as she was up with the pace last time the shorter distance might be within her scope; a possibility but again there is the question as to whether she can get underway in time.
Ran here last start and has worked well since then; she faces a tough assignment having gone without a win for some time now; should the works have a positive effect on her early speed and overall performance a repeat of her season opener would make her contentious in here.
Emerald shipper will have the pace advantage though whether she can carry her speed this far is questionable if her Beyers tell an accurate story as she has not come close to last year's best nor has she finished on the board this year.
Has run two spaced apart races and both have featured poor finishes though she did start better last time on first Lasix; she gets to race close together now but the lightly-raced 4-year-old will need more than her best to win.
Has been sprinting at this level and has been finishing on the fringes in smaller fields; she did show some better early foot last time but is going to still need better than that to get the top prize here; the nature of the pace match up might give her some edge; perhaps she can make the board this time.
She is not really a winning type and she has had her share of chances in easier spots; again she might enjoy some pace advantage but having been sprinting but her record is not that of one who likes to win and her best race of the year is not fast enough either.
Has been more lively early at Kam than she has been here but the pace does slow there more rapidly which could be the reason; she will need to improve on her recent races but her final and winning start last year could be competitive today in a field without a lot of early pace; might be worth a look at 15-1 or thereabouts for that reason alone.
Has had her share of difficulty in the optional claimers and she will need to run her claiming best in here to have any chance even though it does not look like a stellar field and that she will get a good stalking trip; one of two with two wins at the distance she might just be in the right spot and could be very sharp off the fast work more inclined to use in exactas than the win pool.
Like when they put blinkers on with a horse stretching out for the first time -it tends to define intent and approach- and on that basis can see her getting a decent trip and with the slower pace having a solid chance at a (close-to) front-end trip; contender.
Is tagged this time with a win at the distance and in the class earlier on in July; she takes the blinkers off and adds Lasix for today; will that combination lead to slightly better and a contentious race; might be sharper for the blinkers experiment but has her work cut out; leaning to others as it would take a career best.
Has been running well all year though she has just come up short of winning and her last two have seen her come close; now that she is fit and sharp she could be in a spot where she can achieve the breakthrough; she should trip well as she stretches out again; contender.
Bird Of Courage
Will run back in seven days and stretch out to do so; she is a borderline player in here and it depends on how she handles the quick return as her wins came on 10 and 14 days rest; not out of the question but needs a top effort
Won in this class sprinting off the layoff in June and has seen her form head downwards since then; she showed serious speed and could get loose which is what she likes though that is uncertain with the changes to another and her outer post; this will be her first trip at the longer distance too and she does get in light today; if she shakes loose...
Looks like a wide-open race where a bunch will have a shot to win; he has speed and the inside and relevant Beyers; if he does not react to the tough beat last time he should be tough from the better post.
Third career start and second blinkers in conjunction with the drop in class produced a sharp form reversal; any progress from there or perhaps even a repeat from the easier post should produce a competitive race; interesting.
He is a bit of a tough read on occasion as he does not always produce what is expected; he might build on his latest in which case he should be competitive but there could be enough early speed in here to compromise his chances.
Has been running early pretty regularly but he has been unable to outfoot the field or cope with the pressure and last the distance; that scenario is likely to unfold again and he will be up against it today unless he shows surprising progress in his second start back and that would be unpredictable.
Has not started for more than a year; he is now 3, a lower claimer and will race farther with Lasix; new barn too; if you are into betting on your guesses and you guess that he will run better with all the changes then he is bettable for you.
Is a 5-year-old maiden after 18 starts and he did show enough speed in a route and his penultimate race is relevant if you want to take these kind; if playing big exotics he is a must, if betting to win you may be going up against it even if he does fit with these.
Has been away more than a year and will be making his local debut after prepping at Emerald and without a local work; just have to wonder if he can come back with a race similar to the one he left with; find him intriguing if he looks the part and the odds are reasonable would sure want to consider him as a win prospect.
Is one to include in the exotics for sure and you have to know how you handle these regular well-bet consistent losers to know what to do today; of course he could get lucky, get a good trip and win or find another way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory; the better the trip the better his chances.
Will take a pass today and see how he responds to the addition of Lasix; he will need an improved race and prefer to use Lasix as a key to a reaching past best; later.
Did not provide a serious reason to play today and from the outside he might be watched again; he has worked and the barn has won with a couple of second timers, but the returns say they looked more logical than this one.
If the shipper can translate his EmD form from there to here at carry it around the extra turn and half furlong he would be competitive; like the local work and the toughest part may be getting in off the AE list.