Updated on 09/15/2011 1:04PM

A CLOSER LOOK at Belmont races on 9/23

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1st Belmont

Mom's Dream

Consistent runner transfers back to the main track, and notice her last win came at this distance at Bel; like how she has held her form regardless of surface, and the fact that she reunites with her most successful pilot on form, Migliore; a win candidate, and note she is coupled with Reign Or Shine.

Reign Or Shine

Highest earner in the field has been struggling some, but with three wins to her name she is one of the most accomplished fillies in the field; perhaps she will start to turn the corner this afternoon as she worked a near bullet for this last week, and returns to Bel, where she has fared better than Sar.

Divine Line

Another who has three career wins on her resume; she has won her last two races in sharp fashion, and for her new barn, which claimed her last out, she is asked to get a little more real estate than she has in her past two starts; should get the route after running second at this distance three back, and keeps Chavez.

Up the Volume

Since winning her maiden three races ago, she has struggled and perhaps she did not handle the turf in those races as her connectins put her back on the main track this afternoon; given her current form, others seem more probable for the win but she is one who can run an improved race.

Rizzi Girl

One of four horses in the field to have won three races, more than any of their foes; she has not made much of an impact in her last two starts, but in her defense, she stepped up in class to stakes company two races ago; leaning toward others, however, since most of her success has come against lesser.

The Numbers Add Up

Romped in the slop in her first route attempt last out then was sent to the sidelines; she shows mostly average works for her return, and in addition to the seven month layoff, meets winners for the first time in her career, two obstacles that have to be overcome; seems more in line for a minor award.

Seminole Gal

Honest charge has been stuck in second gear as of late, playing runner-up in her last three races; connections change things up a little in an attempt to help her break through, stretching her out in distance to one mile; the added distance is of some concern, but barn has made right calls this meet.

Paugus Bay

Gets back to racing around one turn on the main track after failing to make much of an impact over two turns on turf last out; like that her last win came at a mile on dirt at Bel, and runner who has faced steeper in the not too distant past seems to fit with these; could collect a minor award.

Busy

Promising charge gets back to racing with straight 3-year-olds after besting her elders last out at Pim; connections put her in a position to make an impact on this steep circuit by offering her for a claiming price, and runner who has won three of five outs appears to be a win candidate under Prado.

-Mary Rampellini

Was bothered at the break at a boxcar price; miss basically just ran around the track; blinkers may help but tough to love in this spot considering she was ignored on the board in debut.

Danzig's Sparkle

Belong to Me has hit at a 12% clip with debuters in a 127 horse sample the last 3 years according to DRF Simulcast Weekly; this is dam's first foal to race; dam won a restricted stakes here, was 4 for 13 overall, banked $160k; has pedigree and the connections to be a major factor.

Ms. Dowden

Limited data on sire with firsters; Captain Bodgit won his second start, won the Wood, was beaten a head in the Ky. Derby, a neck in the Preakness; 1 of 3 of dam's foals to race won; that runner was 4 for 37 and earned under a grand a start; dam didn't win in 3 starts but was stakes placed at Woodbine; may want to watch one.

Beautiful Emblem

Published moves on light side since debut; runner raced greenly from the rail while taking a bit of action; give this one a good look on the racetrack; has right to run better with race under her belt.

Agnes Rose

She's pretty much run the same race every time but she's been bumped, was wide and was forced to alter course in last; lack of speed so far a concern as runner goes second time Lasix; needs to show more.

West Coast Girl

Back to original rider after a wide trip upstate; filly has never really challenged and was beaten almost double digits in both starts; drills of late not all that snappy; blinkers on for this, that could move her up some lengths.

Tasty Lace

Outran her odds of 78-1 when missing hitting board by a nostril; like the fact runner was fairly close up although the splits were kind of soft; draws a slightly cozier post for this; could step it up big time.

Per Diem

Lost virtually all chance when she stumbled and had to come from dead last in bow; she had trained decently for first out and blew out slightly slower for this last Sunday; should have speed with Phone Trick influence on bottom side; don't just toss.

Out Spin

Limited data on sire with debuters; sire was zero for 10 in Europe; all 8 of dam's foals to race won; 5 won as juveniles; the best may have been Swedespin, who won 2 of 13 so far and has banked over $115k; dam was off the board in only start; interesting.

Nice Little Girl

Showed a bit more speed last time but still got late at crunch time; note runner got a 5 furlong drill only 3 days before last start; that's not the usual pattern; runner does have the two races under her belt and race doesn't seem to come up all that tough; beware.

-Brian Mulligan

3rd Belmont

Brass Tango

Ran too good to lose in last; note runner took his share of action after getting a race over the upstate track; rider seems to be bringing more confidence to table, this guy looms dangerous in a good betting race.

Speedy Mohama

Despite being bothered at the break, runner flashed more speed last time when the hood was added; nothing wrong with Santos taking call and this is another that could improve after the slight vacation.

Captain Tim

Both halves of the entry seem to be able to run a little; this guy didn't break in debut but didn't give up and was inching toward winner at the end; other half of entry seems to have a bit of zip, that would help this runner's cause; valid threat.

Private Emblem

Handled runner on direct inside rather easily in debut and note this guy took his fair share of action at the Spa; in good hands, trainer hasn't won a ton of races this year by misplacing stock; slight improvement puts him in the thick of it at the wire.

New York Reality

Was a serious factor for about a half mile in debut; got to figure Prado to send hard in this spot; carefully placed for this, blew out decently on Tuesday, could be ready to show best stuff.

Lost in the Woods

Appears to be learning the game with every outing; tough beat last time when runner flashed speed, dropped back, came on hard again between horses; two more strides and he may have gotten there; clear sailing makes him legit factor.

Kildare Dancer

Sire at about 5% with debuters in a 55 horse sample according to DRF stats; 6 of 9 of dam's foals to race won; 2 were multiple winners at 2; the best sib was Flawless Melody, who won over 200 grand in a 62 race career; would expect runner to improve with more furlongs.

No Parole

Sire at about 6% with firsters in a small sample according to DRF stats; Lit de Justice won the BC Sprint and was a super late running sprinter; this is dam's first foal to race; dam was stakes placed in Jersey, won 3 of 19, earned $68k; tab tote action.

Smart Tap

Limited data on sire with firsters; all 5 of dam's foals to race won; one won at 2; the best was probably Belongs Fast, who won over a 100 grand in 19 starts; Jersey drills just okay; may want to watch one.

Mesolithic

Third time could prove the charm; back to original pilot, runner was bothered in debut, but improved a bunch in second try; blow out on Thursday tips intentions; this one has some serious upside.

Personal Opinion

Personal Flag has hit at a 4% clip with debuters in a 114 horse sample the last 3 years according to DRF Simulcast Weekly; 7 of 8 of dam's foals to race won and the only loser has had only 1 start this year; 2 won as juveniles; a couple are stakes placed; top earner was Current Impact, who won 22 of 73 and banked about a quarter of a mill; can't count out.

Quatre Dix Neuf

Popped and stopped in debut, figures to again flash speed; colt is in good hands but must again deal with Private Emblem among others; goes from inside to outside; backers should get a brief thrill at least.

-Brian Mulligan

4th Belmont

Mountain Bird

Opportunity here to get Nick off the donut, but still must sort mixed signals; Smiling Virginian outkicked her in May N1x here but was mid-pack with claimers in Fri.'s 4th; yet Spa duo provide recency, fitness, and the final times; a.m. maintenance pair par for Zito's restrained work pattern; grinding style may wear down Kingsland & Upside; exotics wild card, maybe all.

Bone of Contention

While at the same time entry-level allowance quest is getting a little long in the tooth, at least she's been cutting it closer each time at the Rock; Arroyo had nice Thurs. double in the slop; but these are meager Bones to chew on; has her form really progressed all that far from local diploma?; prefer others.

Belle Artiste

Acknowledge that had to be one of the few last-to-first 6f moves by any runner at the Spa; but let's face it, that maiden group just flat-out quit on her; stone-cold closer in the right hands with Samyn; but the track has not been playing to filly's style; and pair of slow maintenance works fail to entice; be doing well to pick up tri slice first time facing winners.

Upside

Puzzling sort; was sure Lexington diploma signaled more; but has been reeled in with winners; the April N1x loss hard to fathom; then looked like a short horse in Spa comebacker; tighter now, Walden adds strong breeze 10 days ago; but willing to bet filly is still being pointed for Keeneland; vulnerable once more vying for favoritism.

Anita Cocktail

Reveled in Spa mid-platers; you can't fault her for taking control; but who did she beat? Cocktail Sauce twice?; Serey may have snagged a competent claimer; but as the pace target here, filly looks vulnerable to full-court pressure from Kingsland & Upside; good spot to take a stand against threepeat.

Kingsland

Untapped potential here; not just the Mr. P - her multiple stakes-winning dam was tough as nails; admittedly, with the Florida 7f comeback dud staring you square in the eye, it takes a leap of faith to back the short odds triggered by top pilot's presence; but 8/27-9/3 a.m. pair evokes Pletcher's best pattern; figure they'd like to strike N1x quick and get back to added-money; player.

Trueytoo

Not a bad way to put an exclamation mark on long diploma quest; but once-prepped with speed and first Lasix, the 11-1 was a bargain; sports perfect style for 7f; yet she'd have to pair up tops first time against winners; Chop-Chop's ongoing seconditis and filly's willingness to scrape on for a share here in late spring give rise to exacta possibilities.

-John Garry

5th Belmont

Aly Quatorze

Ran a little better in her debut but was still off the board, as she was in her debut, and she wasn't bet all that much either time; her dam won a minor stakes race as a 2-year-old, and her sire was better known for winning at longer distances; her lack of speed, her pedigree and the fact she hails from a patient barn all suggest it may be better to wait for this one to stretch out further.

Dignified Diva

Part of an entry with Regal and Fleet; this one is a half to Lisa Mac, who won the '95 Sorority; her dam is half to hard-hitting sprinter Big Sal, who won 13 races; she has some sharp works for her debut and comes from a win-early barn; Migliore is named on both halves of the entry, so only one will go; given her stablemate's solid last race it would seem that one would start, but then again she drew post 12; if Kimmel runs this one she has to be considered "live".

Downside Risk

Out of an unraced dam; she didn't take any money for her debut, and she didn't do much running; she picks up Chavez but she would have to improve greatly off that first start in order to threaten against this apparently above-par group.

Royal Lassie

She's a half to the stakes-placed Fortunate Halo; she's another who failed to fire in her first start after taking little action; she's worked twice since and has lots of room to improve but doesn't seem likely to threaten here without a major turnaround.

Lassie's Legacy

Easily the best-bred filly in the field, out of multiple graded-stakes winner Weekend Surprise, the dam of both A. P. Indy (just under $3 million in earnings) and Summer Squall ($1.8 million), as well as a couple of other less notable runners who also earned black type; her works don't leap from the page but she is training steadily; obvious credentials off her pedigree and connections.

Rhythm Down Below

Her dam won a small stakes race as a 2-year-old and has produced three previous starters, all of them winners; she has some decent works showing and is under the care of Scott Lake, a dangerous trainer better known for success with established claimers and allowance runners; board will be a good guide in this case.

Taraxacum

Her dam, D'Or Ruckus, won multiple stakes while sprinting and is related to stakes-placed sprinter Wild Ruckus; this one was a remote 2nd in her debut, a quickly-run race won by sharp firster A New Twist; she ran well enough to get 3rd in her debut despite racing greenly, too; lack of speed some concern, and there are a couple of dangerous-looking firsters in here; Bailey stays, which may mean an underlaid price; mixed signals.

Royal Conquest

Outrun in 2 starts, the latest on the turf; she's actually related to Best Boot (post 11), as their dams are sisters; this one is unlikely due to the weak efforts thus far and lack of support at the windows in both tries.

Float and Sting

Faced a decent group in that debut race at Arlington; Lemon Haze returned to win again vs. a pretty deep allowance field; this is the first foal from the dam Tada, who won a minor stakes race in her career; recent works have been dull, and this is a good group; siding with others.

Quiet Broad

First foal out of Quiet Dance, who won 6 races and $224k, including the Gala Lil Stakes; she has a couple of interesting works showing, especially that four-furlong move on September 6th; sire was best going longer but the dam brings some speed to the table, and she'll probably need some zip, since she breaks from post 10; tote board will be the best guide.

Best Boot

Showed little in her first start, at Delaware Park, and was virtually ignored at the windows; she draws wide here and figures to have her work cut out for her against this field, from this post; would be a surprise.

Regal and Fleet

Partnered in the wagering with Dignified Diva, and with Mig named on both one will have to scratch; she was a beaten favorite last time in a game effort and now stretches out another furlong; she's on the outside today but she does have speed in a race lacking a clear-cut pacesetter, and her recent works are terrific; Kimmel holds a strong hand here as either of his 2 fillies seems capable of winning this but he must decide which one to run; all in all, it's a nice problem to have.

Orbiting

Draws widest of 13 here; dam won 4 races and $90k and is kin to stakes-winning sprinter Fort Dodge; she has a couple of nice works but will have to overcome the outside post, which is not an easy task; she's another who's chances may be best reflected by the tote board.

-Kenny Peck

6th Belmont

Summer Colony

Switched from turf to dirt for her second start at Sar and beat a MSW field by over 30 lengths; she returned to beat N1X alw foes by almost 10 lengths and wasn't asked for her best in either race; both of those races were at nine furlongs and she is bred to handle the added distance of this race; she didn't win in two starts on this surface but did finish 2nd here sprinting on a muddy track; hard to tell how good she is right now.

Unrestrained

Showed nothing in the G1 Alabama in her last start at Sar, but she finished 2nd in the G2 Monmouth Breeder's Cup Oaks in her previous start; is one of only two runners here that have raced with Graded Stakes company, and the fact that she competed well makes her a strong threat in this field; she is coupled with Summer Colony to form an entry that should be hard to keep out of the exacta.

Bowl of Emeralds

Raced on grass in her last four starts, but is returning to the surface where she broke her maiden and posted a very respectable speed figure; worked a sharp five furlongs since returning from Sar and is bred to handle the added distance of this race; her best speed figure is a bit lower than those of some others here, but she has good early speed and could be in the thick of things a long way.

Watch the Storm

Is the only runner here with more than two wins to her credit and is eligible for this N2X race because four of her wins were vs. claiming rivals; arrived at Sar via Texas and Louisiana and beat $40K claiming foes very easily at 27-1; her best speed figures are slightly lower than some others here, but the same could be said before her last race; the price should be good again today and she will have her backers.

Legitimada

Won her last start at Mth and finished a good 3rd at that track in her previous race, but she finished dead last vs. N1X rivals on this surface before that; is trying this distance for the first time and is bred to improve as the distance increases; closed from far back to win her last race and will probably pass some tired horses in the stretch today.

Sound of the West

Won her last race going away at Sar and posted a speed figure good enough to put her right there at the wire today; finished 4th here last year in the G1 CCA Oaks at 12 furlongs, so the 11 furlongs of this race should be no problem; she tends to race wide in most of her races, but the small field and long, sweeping turns may help her chances; she has won on this surface and could be very tough to beat today.

Speed of Thought

Has a win, six 2nds and a 3rd in eight starts this year and is the only runner in this field that has won at this distance; she won her last start on the turf at Sar and posted a competitive speed figure; 13 of her 15 races were on turf, but she did finish 2nd in a good field on the main track at SA; Frankel is having a career year and Prado was aboard for her last win; figures hard to keep out of the money today.

-Paul Skelton

7th Belmont

Even the Score

Stretching out has agreed with colt by BC Juvenile/Florida Derby victor Unbridled's Song as he totes the most consistent recent route form into this event; held for a share after pressing a sub 1:10 three-quarter split on Woodward day and may race closely to a less taxing pace today; Chavez can ably substitute for Bailey (aboard Hadrian's Wall) on runner who scored gamely at this distance at the Spa; capable if able to work out a trip from a potentially tricky post.

Hadrian's Wall

Bailey has been aboard for both of this Storm Cat colt's triumphs over this strip and is back in the saddle after the ambitious Travers flop; note he handled subsequent 22-length maiden winner Wild Years in the maiden score at this distance; Spa failure as the 3-5 chalk may hint of declining form although the 9/9 local bullet drill is a positive; rebound could be on the way but value may not be a part of the equation.

Threcoinsinfountin

A rare price figures to be available on a Dutrow trainee in this corner; was sent to the shelf in view of dull winter form and now returns with a non-descript worktab on display; stretch-runner likely needs a fast pace to set up his bid but fits with these on his best and handles routes just fine; a win seems slightly out of reach.

Esterhazy

Gelding goes postward for his new trainer off a freshening from one of his worst efforts of the year; races for lower % Miceli after experiencing some success for Jimmy Jerkens with his best run perhaps the local win over hard-hitter Wild Imagination; fired fresh in that score and hopes to do so again at a higher price today; needs some improvement.

Wild Summer

Gave odds-on Ubiquity a tussle when well clear in a Spa event which didn't run deep in contention (was 15+ lengths clear of the remainder); an 8-1-3-0 '01 mark suggests he hasn't been the gamest performer this year but clearly contends with a repeat of his last; best use may be underneath in exotics.

Borntoberegal

Here's another returnee and one who needed the lead for his most recent victory; 2-time winner hasn't demonstrated a liking for this strip and failed in his lone n2x attempt; figures vulnerable in the lane off the bench in this spot.

Bowman's Band

Stretchout sprinter is bred to handle the added ground and found n1x competition within his scope recently; now takes the next logical step for the capable Kimmel/Migliore team after drawing well clear in each score; interim work also looks good for logical threat who may receive more respect at the windows today.

Seventyfivesouth

Gray ships in from the Jersey Shore after taking advantage of a slow pace over 6 rivals in a preliminary allowance win; Velez sees fit to take the trip with colt who has yet to try this 9 furlong trip; can be a part of the pace again although others appear to possess more upside in this event.

Pinky Pizwaanski

Has registered scores in 3 of 5 races since being gelded with all of them double-digit wins but faces a class test again here; runner has stalled at the n2x level although he rebounded in a recent high-priced Spa event; has an affinity for the surface and a sharp recent drill; could land in the mix for a small share at a price.

Pure Harmony

The probable pacesetter draws the extreme slot after a sharp retreat against statebred stakes competition; colt is actually the lone entrant to have already succeeded at the n2x level and accomplished it at the expense of McArthur winner John Paul Too; a 4-for-10 lifetime mark shows quality but others in sharper form entice more.

-Paul Malecki

One tough cookie; only poor efforts on her card came back in the fall of '99 when they threw her in against G2 and G3 company; gone a year and a half but she came back just fine, in fact probably better than ever; has speed and guts, a nice combination; huge threat.

Bedside Manner

Can flat fly and maybe, just maybe, with her outside post she can get up and over, cutting off the other speed, turning a race that seems to be filled with speed into her own little parade; sharp as a tack and 2 for 2 at this trip - after 6fs in her last win she had a 5-length lead, even if it was cut into quite a bit in the final furlong; good enough to beat 4+ clear of Shutup and Dance June 15 at BEL - that's one real nice Mandella filly who's a SW since; looks good.

-Michael Hammersly

Connections have him as a Main Track Only after a runnerup to Kreiger in a Saratoga turf allowance; 2nd in the Belmont mud last spring and seemingly those in his camp believe he is a better dirt runner (1-for-4 turf, 1-for-8 dirt); believe It's So Simple has the slight edge on main track.

-Art Gropper

10th Belmont

Baby Shaq

Wasn't able to make any noise in two starts at Saratoga, but perhaps he just doesn't care for the spa surface; his most recent win came over this very track, so perhaps the return downstate will help him bounce back to a better effort.

Chance Anew

6-year-old likes to sit out the early running, and those tactics may work against him in this event, as there doesn't appear to be an abundance of early speed signed on; his last wo have been poor, although one of those was over turf, nevertheless prefer to pass on him this time around.

Diplomatist

Like to see that he has shown some ability to race close-up to the early pace, as the pace in here doesn't figure to be swift, so he should be in good position to make his presence felt late; contender.

I Think I Can Fly

Recent form makes it tough to get interested in this 5-year-old, but he has run races in the past that would make him a factor vs. this bunch; regardless, he needs to turn it around quickly, and may be another who is at a disadvantage trying to employ off the pace tactics.

Cloud Club

He's a threat on his best, and the drop in class may help him turn the trick; he should be forwardly placed through the early stages which should work in his favor, but the fact that he's won once in just 16 starts over this surface is a bit disconcerting.

Tracking

Tough to figure this runner out, as he's capable of stepping up and running a solid race, but the difficulty is in figuring out when that will be; he has enough early speed to try and take it to this field from the bell, so he must be respected off that alone.

Krigeorj's Gold

Ships into NY off a few turf tries, but looking down on his card he shows that he has no problem with racing on dirt, and may prefer it; he's got plenty of early speed to be in the hunt from the get-go, so this stranger may not be a bad one to side with in this spot.

Vindicator

Appears to be a major factor should rain factor into the picture as he owns a stellar mark over off tracks; he's faced better company in his most recent starts, but it always tough to get over-excited about horses descending steadily down the class ladder, even despite the fact that he's been here before.

Vilar

Has yet to pose much of a threat since breaking maiden on turf in March of 2000, and all those layoff lines are a serious cause for concern; he's dropping in for 16k today, so prefer to look in another direction.

-Brian Pochman