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A CLOSER LOOK at Belmont races on 10/05
1-time winner long odds and up the track in similar condition; blinkers come off for barn that totes a hefty ROI in this category; you'll get a price, but this one could use a non-winners of 2 claimer somewhere soon.
Deep closer probably not helped at all in this one turn elongated sprint; got up as Chop Chop went to work and was all out for the victory; last few Beyers on the light side and Chavez leaves for 1-for-19 rider.
Big 0-for in the win box this year and Ima Halo had her number convincingly at Saratoga; prefers Belmont over any other surface, but drought would make any one leery about backing.
Maiden-only winner and have to ask where's the non-winners of 2 lifetime race she needs; Beyers very light and an uphill climb here.
Inner dirt specialist hasn't won since and returns off a 7-week break; in light for return and on her best day surely would be a stalking presence and serious factor; right with Belongs Fast and Doublecomet this summer with only concern how she will fire right off the bench; figures tough.
Claimed for this price when nipping Authentic Caller for the place spot; 6 different riders and 3rd barn since July, 3rd time for winning barn and prepped over this track against a good New York-bred; gotten used to new surroundings, the pick.
The controlling speed of this event and her career-best Beyer occurred at Belmont last spring; solid record at the distance, Davis reunites and was the rider for her best Beyer; last 3 have been discouraging, but she's surely the one to catch, how long she lasts is the question.
Nice win at Saratoga although only defeated 4 foes; giving away 9 pounds to some in this field and although she likes to win, she doesn't always fire her best shot; when she's good she's good, but feeling that last was a bit overrated and backing others especially at what might be a less than attractive price.
Her dirt Beyers this winter on the inner dirt are solid figures against this field, however the 1-for-20 stat on a fast oval surely makes you think twice about aligning with for a win bet; should love this company and legged up on turf; using underneath as figures well at this level.
Belong to Me has hit with 12% of his debuters n a 127 horse sample the last 3 years according to DRF Simulcast Weekly; all 6 of dam's foals to race won; 2 won as juveniles; this is a good family; one of dam's sibs dropped Good Game, who won a Grade 3, 4 other races and over half a million; nice more on 9/23, look out.
Tons best of rest and figures to take serious action as top Beyer in field combined with stellar connections; should be able to make the top but has lost ground in the stretch in every outing and worse collapse was at this distance; a vulnerable favorite?
Limited data on sire with firsters; all 7 of dam's foals to race won; 2 won as juveniles; top earner was Booker D, who was stakes placed multiple times, won 7 of 47, earned $128k; Slew Sangue won second start on grass going about a mile, retired one for 5; is in for 10 times what she cost as a juvenile.
Wide with wraps on for debut; sire was solid sprinter and trainer solid with second time starters; filly didn't run all that bad in debut and has every right to improve; could be enticed into using in gimmicks.
Limited data on sire with firsters; this is non winning dam's first foal to race; Chequer won second start on grass going about 7 furlongs, won the Grade 3 Kyne at Bay Meadows going 9 furlongs; Hall of Fame trainer not really known for work with youngsters; may want to watch one.
Takes the big drop, seems realistically placed; winner of debut returned to win a N1x here by 8 9/19 as the chalk; barn having nice year, this gal has been freshened and has some decent moves on her tab; she flashed brief speed in bow, could move forward.
Fortunate Prospect has hit with about 3% of his debuters in a 121 runner study according to DRF stats; one of two of dam's foals to race won and that runner is 3 for 11 so far in her career and has banked $90k; she didn't race at 2; dam was one for 5 as a racer; Fortunate Prospect won multiple stakes around the country going short, was 13 for 39 overall, banked $439k in the mid 1980s when that was real money; tab tote action.
Enters this off three best of 5-furlong works, and no question that he'll appreciate the class relief he sees today; nevertheless, he's going to have to pick it up along the Beyer scale as he meets a couple of quality opponents in Draw Play and Listen Here, but it looks like there is enough pace in here to setup his late running style, so he's not an impossibility.
This colt really improved himself in second lifetime start with the addition of Lasix, and he didn't disgrace himself by any means in back-to-back stakes tries thereafter; Dutrow has gotten tremendous results with this type of layoff in the past, and strong 5-furlong workout coming into this is sort of a Dutrow signature move; Looks every bit like a player in this small gathering, and rating style only helps.
Sharp Little Boy
Took advantage of maiden claimers when last seen in mid-August, but this will be a much tougher test today; he'll need to improve off that 65 Beyer in the neighborhood of 20 points or more, so it seems a bit optimistic to expect him to get it done vs. these.
Looked strong in winning debut, and Mott really hasn't been known to have his runners geared up for sprint debuts, so this colt may own a serious amount of natural talent; 3rd place finisher from that event returned to win here on 9/26 going 5 1/2-furlongs with an 84 Beyer vs. a 75k MCL field; looks very good at this point, but 7-furlongs is an entirely different world.
New Yorker look good besting state-bred rivals in career debut, and earned a solid figure doing it, but he's meeting a much higher caliber of horse in this event; barn has been clicking on all cylinders lately, so suspect that this colt will be sharp, but he simply may prove to be overmatched from a talent standpoint; respect, but he's in a tough spot.
Sire has had limited success with turf runners according to DRF stats; winner of debut returned to win the $63k Aspirant at Finger Lakes, was most recently second in the Bongard here 9/30; needs a major turn around.
Limited data on sire with grass performers but the Lyphard's Wish influence can't hurt; beat half the field last time and could show a bit more speed on the stretch out; could be the bomb in the gimmicks.
Dehere has hit with 7% of his grass runners in a 229 horse sample the last 3 years according to DRF Simulcast Weekly; show horse in debut won a maiden special in next by a neck then was third in the Grade 3 Flash here in June; needed the race, could step it up big time on the stretch out; respect.
Limited data on sire with firsters; this is dam's first foal to race; dam was one for 6 on the track; Spinning World was a multiple Group 1 winner, ended his career taking the BC Mile as the chalk in 1997; bred to run all day, has pedigree to threaten.
Ben's Good Deed
Sire has hit with 8% of his turf runners in a 85 horse study according to DRF stats; bothered at break in debut but bow leaves much to be desired; has Finality to deal with again; good luck.
Lasix didn't help last time but runner did not run all that bad on the lawn two back; the bad news is he must deal with arch rival on direct outside once again; bred to run all day; has right to run better here.
Almost got the money on the stretch out; drills since have been sharp, top last race Beyer sure to attract attention, and rightfully so; place horse in debut came back to graduated by three quarters as the chalk and was far back in the Bongard; could see him mid pack early, then making huge move in the drive; respect.
Eddie White Sox
Deputed Testamony has hit with about 5% of his debuters in a 56 runner study and with 8% of his turf runners in a 97 horse sample according to DRF stats; 2 of 3 of dam's foals to race won, the other one is zero for 5 this year; one won at 2, the other one was on the board in 4 of 5 as a juvenile; dam was one for 6 as a racer; Deputed Testamony was 11 for 20 career, banked $674k; never tried grass; may need one.
Green Dancer has hit with about 4% of his debuters in a 61 runner study and with 11% of his turf runners in a 288 horse sample according to DRF stats; this is dam's first foal to race; dam was 2 for 45, earned less than $500 a start; Jersey works sluggish; has to hustle.
Limited data on sire with firsters, but sire's sire loved the lawn; one of 2 of dam's foals to race won; that runner is 2 for 24, and has earned less than a grand a start; dam was 2 for 16 in the minor leagues; in light, seems in a bit tough first crack.
Comet Shine has hit with 4% of his turf runners in a 96 horse study according to DRF stats; was cold as ice on board in debut and again fans were right; needs a 180 degree turn around.
Dangerous if he goes; note he showed good speed in debut, continued to improve upstate; got a taste of grass action in last and series of drills since attests to fitness; the bad news: connections hinder price.
Colonial Affair has hit with 11% of his turf runners in a 100 horse study according to DRF stats; trainer has shown a nice flat bet profit on the stretch out the last couple of years according to DRF stats; should take to trip; rates legit look.
Limited data on sire with grass runners; broke second to last in most recent start, never really raised a gallop; lack of speed a concern; could need more seasoning to show best stuff.
Compliance has hit with 12% of his turf runners in a 332 horse study according to DRF stats; bred to run all day on bottom side; check out trainer's gaudy flat bet profit stats first time turf before totally tossing.
Things haven't been very pretty so far; can blinkers get the necessary turnaround? that seems kind of dicey.
Knocking on the door though his last couple of better efforts came with some give in the ground; obviously he won't mind it if he catches it here but what if it's firm? he's been less than great in that regard; mixed feelings.
Has some speed and some ability; didn't make the top last time and gave way; done his best when he made the lead, but even his best hasn't been any great shakes; iffy.
Seems to be getting it together; showed speed first 2 times out, then ran on smartly last time; dad a great turf sire and mom was just a cut below the best on turf out West a few years ago; quite playable.
Had lots of chances, but there are far too many good efforts on his card to not take him seriously; as some versatility and all those close calls make him one to look at ? but is he always going to find somebody a bit better at this level?
Make My Millenium
Headed the right way and being by 'Slew you know turf is no sweat; loomed a threat though couldn't sustain it; figures better for it now, and any bit of a forward move will make him a big player.
Omit the Dividend
Coupled with New Paradigm; debut was solid and probably needed; figures to benefit from that race and the pedigree says turf and distance are what he wants; playable.
Caught yielding turf last time and didn't run badly, but note his previous on better footing were quite good; so ground condition probably dictates whether you only consider him a fringe player (yielding) or very scary indeed.
Coupled with Omit the Dividend; good to see Bailey here, though the post doesn't help matters; had lots of chances and finished behind a few of these, so he's not one to go overboard on, even with Bailey aboard; 4 works since show he's fit and ready; dangerous.
Coupled with Tailfromthecrypt; sire gets about 15% debut winners, about 11% turf winners, according to DRF sire stats; still, it's asking an awful lot of a horse to debut going long on turf, particularly when the post isn't of any help either; later?
Main track only entrant didn't do much running in her bow; still, they plunked down $1.3 mil for this son of A. P. Indy, so they aren't going to give up after just one race; did show some speed, worked well since and maybe he'll be better on dirt; worth a long look if this goes on dirt.
Slews Final Answer
It was very surprising to see her go to post at 6 to 1 in her maiden voyage considering the top-notch connections and outstanding breeding; here, she faces a difficult task from the inside slot, but has expert pilot and will still offer some pari-mutuel value; consider.
Call For Honor
Might prove to be a clever claim based on her courageous victory at Saratoga; she defeated Bringhometheloot who was an impressive, even money winner here on Wednesday for these same connections; was involved in a wicked pace in the race of 8/8; progressive, local work tab is just another plus mark.
Yes, she took 102 seconds to complete a mile and that was over an exceptionally weak contingent; trainer off to flying start at this meet (as he was during the spring at Belmont) but this filly just does not match up against swifter foes.
Scored in game fashion with the Lasix addition and added distance should prove no problem; a wet track would be no barrier if breeding holds true; note that trainer has strong win percentages in various, relevant categories; draws a good post in compact field.
Boasts best last race Beyer yet it was at the claiming level; she clobbered Bringhometheloot by more than 9 lengths (see comment for Call For Honor above for a cross-reference); draws the best post but enthusiasm would be tempered somewhat by a sloppy track.
Took to turf like a duck to water ? remember he had to flee a tough post, too, and still won off for fun; apparently has found his niche after a bunch of mediocre main-track races; lands a cozy rail and while it's first time vs. winners he appears to have turned the corner; dangerous.
Game graduating at SAR, then found this bunch a bit too much to handle; of course, that was his first try vs. winners, and just his 3rd career race, so he had excuses and there's still plenty of room for improvement; wouldn't be surprised if he did much better here, though whether that's enough to take this is another matter.
Had to need that last one, his first race in 8 months; has run decently here, though he may actually be more comfortable on dirt; and is ready for 10fs off one just so-so return race after a lengthy layoff? dicey.
Things haven't been too pretty at this level, and you have to wonder, too, if whatever knocked him out of action from December to April of this year took to much out of him ? he ran poorly, went on the shelf, and hasn't really show much since; shaky.
Had 6 races at this level ? he didn't finish in 2 of them; in the other 4 he was never a factor; at least graduated here, but that's a year-plus ago, and certainly that's a hunt for a silver lining on what seems a pretty dark cloud; longshot.
Had a number of chances at this level, but there are just enough good ones to make you think maybe, just maybeE; in fact, after being gone from Dec. to June he's steadily improved with his last 3 efforts at this level on the turf being solid; maybe he's set for his best now, and if that's the case he's more than a little scary.
No White Flags
Coupled with Kananaskis; comes off 4 straight good efforts at this level ? heck, 3 of those times he was frustrated by just a neck; no doubt the one to beat, but with all those close calls come a concern: is he always going to find somebody just a smidge better at this level? even so, he's the proven commodity and will take some beating.
Had a number of tries at this level at this game, but he's really yet to be much of a factor vs. winners; 1 for 49 record hardly inspires, too; longshot.
A couple of his efforts at this level are good enough to be at least somewhat tempting exotically speaking ? still, except for that one try at GS when he got beat a neck he's only been within a length of the winner once at the finish ? the other times he's been beaten 3 or more lengths; can get closer if he can get all the breaks, though that's a mighty big if; shaky.
Graduated nicely here in July, then ran decently at this level at SAR before throwing in a clunker last time; what happened? well, maybe it was just one of those days; anyway, he's back BEL where he's done his best work and isn't facing any monsters here; food for thought.
It took a while but he appears to have turned the corner; looked good graduating at 21-1, then was a good 2nd first time vs. winners at this level at SAR at 23-1; probably won't be quite so generous in terms of odds this time, and rightly so - or do you worry some that those 2 good races after a bunch of lousy ones came because he loved the SAR course? tricky read.
Had lots of chances at this level, though at least the one time he came close came when he raced here in June; also didn't run badly here in July before throwing in a couple duds at SAR; maybe he likes it here enough to improve, but that's all on the come and his overall form fails to inspire.
A Shaky Affair
Yet to be much of a factor in his races vs. winners; does have a bit of speed but the routine has been for him to fade; only win came here at least, from just off the pace; outsider.
Sho Iz Fine
Been routinely beaten by double digits the past year or so, and many of those races came vs. weaker; difficult to build much of a case here.
MTO is coupled with No White Flags; comes off a string of decent races ? ones that would make him look pretty darn good if this race came off and he got to run against the other MTOs and a bunch of turf horses; also note a wet track win if that applies; big threat if this is played his way.
Got good this past winter and spring, showing he could run with some of the big boys; but things went south on him after he left Rizo's barn, though you'd think going to Mr. Mott's care would improve your form ? maybe Rizo just knew what made this guy tick; return run at MED in the G3 Cliffhanger wasn't much, so now Mott regroups, drops him back into allowance ranks; mixed feelings.
Comes here sharp ? the near year layoff sure seemed to help as his 3 races back have excellent; looked good beating N3X foes last time and certainly comes here in the best form of his life; dangerous.
An Oscar for Bert
The question is how to view that MED disaster ? after all, he'd been in good form at SAR for Simon, then was claimed, changed tracks, went way up in class and got drilled; oh, and he went longer than normal, too; who knows what led to the debacle, but Romans moves him back down to allowance ranks here, and back to NY; but is that last race a sign a wheel came off or, even if not, did it knock him for a loop? tricky read.
Off the good allowance win at 20-1 he tried some of the biggies in the G2 Baruch and while no threat while 4th he wasn't exactly embarrassed either; move to this level has to help, but remember, he's still got just one good U.S. race showing, so it's still tough to gauge where he fits.
Looked great blasting optional claimers at DEL; maybe that's a sign he's turned the corner; well, the problem with that assumption is he looked super drilling N2X foes at DEL in July then ran a dud; at least his last win came after a good 2nd-place effort, so he's done something new ? he's strung together good efforts; maybe that is a sign he's found himself; food for thought.
Big boys in the Atto Mile were too much for him; in fact, only poor efforts in U.S. came there and on the dirt in the G2 Californian at HOL; there is quality here, though ? note a good 3rd in the Fastness to very smart Irish Prize at HOL, and note a good allowance effort at SAR; so long as the WO trip didn't knock him for a loop he's liable to be awfully dangerous here, and it's sure nice to see Bailey take the call.
One-time Derby hopeful went to the bench 13 months ago off a nice turf win; can he be ready to handle this caliber off such a layoff and injury? well, he does have quality and he did show turf is no problem; of course, it's not like he comes here with any real significant class edge ? he hasn't faced better horses than what City West or Stokosky or some of the others have faced; tough, tough call.
MTO; last was a bit disappointing; had trained well and appeared in a good spot; well, maybe he needed the race; note last fall he won 2nd time off a layoff; good enough to give legit G2 sprinters/milers a scare when right; capable.
MTO; don't give him too much credit for beating Macho Uno July 25; remember, 'Uno hadn't run since last fall, and was bobbing and weaving down the lane like a drunken sailor; at least they guy came running to nail him; followed that up with a poor run at Philly, but maybe he didn't like it there; back to NY, with some time off between; fired big fresh before; food for thought.
MTO closed with a rush last time at this track; does like it here, and maybe his niche is as a late-running miler; note his 2 so-so efforts at SAR came when asked to go 9fs; well, this is a bit shorter and the surface may be better; quite playable if this thing is washed off.
MTO showed a lot of guts beating N2X foes; beat Volponi who had previously beaten N1X foes by like 15, then tried the Travers; of course, some of these elders are tougher than that fellow 3yo but all this horse's wins have come here and Barbara continues his strong work this meet; consider.
Call It Off
MTO was given some time off after a big SAR win, but it begs the question ? considering he was in the best form of his life, why the layoff? at least there's no panicky drop for his return and he's worked nicely for this; has plenty of versatility and guts so if he's ready he's awfully scary ? but his try off the bench wasn't his best; mixed feelings.
Been facing much tougher and surely fits at this level; this distance might just be what the doctor ordered as he's been flashing speed in much longer events; barn is proficient off a layoff too, big factor off the drop.
Surely must be considered a major threat off the narrow loss at an elevated level at Saratoga; won for fun over this track for $14K in July at this same distance and despite the stats, this kid can ride; the pick.
Fires every time out and Serey has him for race number 2 off the claim; has shown some ability over the track and no reason to think another good one coming here; the one to beat, but must get by Norton Street.
Huge drought and despite the close recent efforts, the 0-fors and a 4-0-0-0 mark at Belmont have to land us with others.
Mark De Triomphe
Was solid facing straight 3-year-olds last year, but been badly overmatched so far in 2001; he likes this track for sure and on his best should prove tough, but the last effort over this strip was very poor and will the real Mark De Triomphe please stand up?
Huge Beyer in the Suffolk runaway win only 4 days ago and has had some success over this Belmont strip; last was his best in a long long time and wondering if a possibility of a bounce exists here, especially with the very short break in between; interesting.
Behind Running Copelan over this track and has yet to hit the board at Belmont in 9 career races; last win on a 'good' track at 22-1, so hoping for some moisture for a wakeup call.
Chased Running Copelan with an excuse as he was stopped at the start then wide the rest of the way; rider capable, but having a tough meeting and barn hasn't found the same magic that Serey and Lake found; latest was an encouraging sign and should be factored into the exotics picture.
Mild rally in return and has not been the same runner for this barn that he was for Dutrow; Arroyo won on him at Belmont 11 months ago, his best race before the claim; return was OK and probably needed it, but tending to back others off latest even effort.
Away since unable to handle the Saratoga mud; this is a pretty tough $16K claimer and this guy has not done his best work at Belmont; watching one.
Really fell off best form since last fall's good paper at Meadowlands; barn is solid off a rest, but this guy seems like a much different 4-year-old than 3-year-old, pass.
Behind the pick Norton Street in last pair and not within range of him either; terrible record over the course for a winless barn in 2001; seems up against it.
Another that was victim to a bad start on September 22; shows one strong Beyer in last 8 starts, so consistency not his speciality; winless a long time and draw not favorable either.
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