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Updated on 09/15/2011 2:06PM
A CLOSER LOOK at Bay Meadows races on 9/27
1st Bay Meadows
Finally was starting to wake up in the Emerald N1y claiming basement; took much more interest on the stretchout but still faltered, despite every opportunity to overcome moderate pace; overall fig set doesn't stack up for all; but ground-saving trip might nip tri kicker.
City Lights Sonata
Getting closer on the drop; out of luck when Mute Muse ran off and hid after this filly spotted that foe a generous half-mile; one-paced sort needs the field to come back to her and drop the race in her lap; which is not out of the question here; could be her turn if Winning Genes regresses & 'Crafty can't handle the ship; would want at least 3-1 to find out.
Key To B Crafty
Emerald shipper back in 13 days after troubled trip with Wash.-bred's ended fourpeat; yet 4yo has picked up her game this summer, like her as a miler even more than sprint form; off the board in lone local dud; but late-bloomer really just has two to beat here; and has the tacitcal presence to threaten throughout; contender.
Ran out of ground trying to reel in Winning Genes; that filly had been knocking on the door against better at Hollypark and is capable of producing same effort right back; add in Key To B Crafty & City Lights Sonata and there are some hurdles here for 4yo to get pilot & barn off the donut; going with others.
Steady sort puts forth that mid-50's BSF every time; will Key To Be Crafty or City Lights Sonata produce one of their occasional top efforts to beat that benchmark?; yet presence of top pilot may prohibit anything like 5-2 seeking repeat; and she may be put on the lead even sooner today; better box that exacta.
Outsider been taking a real beating from plain diploma holders on the fair circuit; slight shares here last spring with maiden claimers going short; probably wants no part of the last portion of this mile after proving minor pace threat; caught, passed; some other spot.
2nd Bay Meadows
Erase turf fiasco; can't blame Peery for taking another grass look off filly's career peak; safely back where belongs for 16k; look who comes aboard - Baze; remarkable, given that Hollendorfer comebacker Thatswhatshesaid looks live on paper; must avoid withering duel with that one; but ascending form curve may not be over; the main threat.
Finally made amends with first blinkers; yet she only added another to low-60 Beyer fig plateau; and looks fairly ripe for regression on the stretchout against two dedicated & well-tested platers with mile speed; you'd have to believe Bubbly Brooke is on a downward cycle and Thatswhatshesaid needs the start, before taking minimal flyer; not today.
Emerald shipper held her own floating around dime tag players up north; scratched out shares with winners after fairly promising out-of-the-box diploma; but a mile in local bow against committed pacesetting chalk duo may be one step further than she'd like; can't recommend a contrarian Venture in this spot.
Quickly credentialed herself as a horse for the main course here this past spring; ran out of gas against starters on the fair circuit; but quartet of works during eight-week break evince solid pattern for top barn; the key is whether or not Bubbly Brooke can produce another (dirt) top; if not, this filly is home-free; odds-on, but not invincible.
Maid Of Ice
Any chance the chalky pair of pacesetters are coming back to this field seem slim to none; which are approximately the odds one received if backing this filly for 12.5k last time; Sherman cleaning up in the still-young meet; but the grey was Ice-cold in So Cal excursion; might turn up with usual tri slice; more would surprise.
3rd Bay Meadows
Faced five 4yo's in his last race but managed to land on the board and now this guy ships and moves back in with just sophomores; Washington State's leading barn is represented here but horse may have trouble staying in the hunt given the small field and his lack of serious speed; he's good enough for a decent share but needs help trip-wise.
Time of his maiden win wasn't exactly fast and they needed :34 to navigate the final 2 1/2 furlongs; horse has a right to move forward in 2nd route try but the going gets tougher when facing winners for the first time; others more promising.
He did okay in first try around two turns but the time was slow and now the runner must start over a new course; like this guy's early foot but have the feeling he'll be in deep water when the real race begins; prefer others.
Had to need his last one and while this dude is route experienced we're not too sure he'll be ready to fire best shot after just the lone sprint prep; class drop makes sense and he's had time to mature since the spring; like the fact that he does business on the lead while he's worked well since last start; trip is key to this guy as he'll be tough if allowed a lone-F situation.
Lands in a new barn 3 weeks after a dull effort for twice this tag; Russell B. sticks with and this guy has consistently earned strong speed figures; perhaps you can excuse the last race given he was hard to manage on the first turn; if able to rebound to best he'll be tough to deny.
Won like a good thing vs. weak maidens at the fair but found the going much more difficult when stepping in with winners at this stand; class drop seems appropriate but we're wondering if this dude has enough speed to stay within earshot here; needs to move forward to have a say.
4th Bay Meadows
Limited data on sire with firsters; this is dam's first foal to race; dam was one for 3 on the track and won $11k; Corslew graduated at a mile in seventh start and won multiple stakes on this circuit; nice more on 9/20 and Sumja solid with debuters; respect.
Added the blinks and moved up considerably; love the fact runner was clear by daylight; has to deal with the dropper on the outside, but if firsters can't run, this guy should be right there.
Filly tries to find her proper level; pace was a bit slower in second start, and she still stopped on a dime; fact she took money both times is evident; backers should get a brief thrill at least.
Limited data on sire with firsters; 4 of 6 of dam's foals to race won; all are multiple winners; one won as a juvenile; Paster's Caper graduated in second start as a soph, was 3 for 13 career; works have been steady; don't dismiss this homebred.
Limited data on sire with firsters; 3 of 5 of dam's foals to race won; none won as juveniles; Lake George graduated in third start as a soph, won a division of the Oceanside at Del Mar; nice blowout 8/22 but note gap in published moves; trainer adept with debuters; can't toss.
Smokester has hit with 4% of his debuters in a 42 runner sample the last 3 years according to DRF Simulcast Weekly; dam's other foal to race lost only start last year; dam was unraced; Smokester won his debut, ended career winning 2 for 4; works just so so; may want to watch one.
Bothered at boxcars in open company, now takes one of the biggest drops in the game; homebred may have needed the outing and works since are decent; if this one can run at all, she'll likely show it here.
5th Bay Meadows
Trainer has shown a slight flat bet profit when removing hood; note the double move runner flashed 2 back; show horse 8/9 won a $20k maiden seller in next; the second try at this level, and race doesn't seem to come up all that tough; valid threat for it all.
Chromite has hit at about a 5% clip with debuters in a 38 runner sample according to DRF stats; dam's other foal to race is one for 9 career and she graduated as a sophomore; dam was zero for 6 as a racer; Chromite won debut, ran sixth in only other start in the Tremont; trainer can handle young stock; tab tote action.
Moscow Ballet has hit at about a 13% clip with debuters in a 118 runner sample according to DRF stats; dam's other foal to race graduated at 2, is one for 12 career; dam herself was 6 for 17 on the track and earned $93k; in from East Bay; it's not always an ideal situation to ship to main circuit; may want to watch one.
Pressed and faded in what may have been a better than looked debut; the drop can't hurt and note the move 8 days ago was the second best of 26; colt has every right to improve.
Limited data on sire with firsters; dam's only foal to race didn't hit board in 5 chances; dam herself was 5 for 20 on the track, earned $96k; Hasten to Add won second start going a mile and a half, was stakes placed in Grade 1 company; this one may want more furlongs.
Showed more speed with the hood added and the race over the track can't hurt; not sure this guy really wants to sprint but he does have the educational races under his belt and could move forward; still, demand a price.
Gelding has seemed to improve in every outing and trainer has done a nice job of placing his stock this year; place horse 6/15 has won three times since, most recently a $15k claimer at Hastings; this guy may offer value, could get a slice.
Freshened, takes the big drop, drills are steady, trainer has spotted them solid all year and a hungry rider is aloft; blew out decently mid month and has legit right to move forward here; if he has any bit of talent, he should show it at this level.
6th Bay Meadows
Record leaves much to be desired; the best plays in maiden races come on lightly raced runners, usually those dropping in class; this horse has made 16 starts and has never finished better than 3rd; siding with others.
Lone start resulted in a 19-length thumping; the good news is that he is a candidate for improvement; most first timers struggle, then learn from the experience and move forward; this horse could do the same; better than that one race suggests.
His 2 races fail to inspire confidence; he was soundly beaten in both; showed some improvement last time with the drop in class; he'll need to continue to improve if he is to challenge; has earned just $90 in his 2 outs; pass.
Expecting more from this colt; last time he caught some toughies - MSW races are much stronger than maiden claiming events; he also figured to need a start given his inexperience; by a good sire in Lear Fan; has more talent than what he showed first time out.
SoCal invader has yet to hit the board in 6 starts, but he does have some appealing characteristics; he wasn't beaten by much in his last few starts, running competitively at Fpx and SA; the move up north may be what he needs to break through with a top-3 finish; makes his 3rd start following a layoff, often a horse's best race.
A nicely-bred horse, being by Storm Bird (the sire of Summer Squall); unfortunately he's shown in his 12 starts that he isn't a horse with a great desire to exit the maiden ranks; has hit the board in a third of his starts - a respectable rate; the bad news is that his last 2 races have been below par for him; forecasting a minor award.
Willing to cut him some slack for that recent failure; he hadn't started in a while and needed a race; he should be fitter and sharper this time; looking past that effort, he ran fairly well to be a distant third at GG in December; a return to that form could put him in contention in this weak field.
Hail to Blue
He's been all over, hasn't he? everywhere from Boise to Northern California; where ever he has traveled he has performed reasonably well; he's finished third 3 times in 8 starts while competing mostly in sprints; a distant 3rd recently in a Fpx race that was run in fast time; respect.
Out of the money in all 7 starts but making progress; he's been 4th in 3 of his last 4 and seems stronger now than he was earlier in his career; had a couple months off last time but didn't return too rusty; piece possible.
Since dropping to maiden $8k this horse has been a major player; twice he has been second, including in his last race; that was his best effort, a narrow miss at this level; owns solid numbers and appears poised for a strong performance.
Similar to England Mist; both have made turnarounds since dropping to maiden $8k; his two races for this tag have been very good; exits a good maiden claimer; that last race appeared above average for a bottom level maiden claimer; do not discount.
7th Bay Meadows
The layoff following the claim is a bit alarming; the last place a new owner wants to send his horse is to the sidelines - so he must have had some problems; a hard-trying horse; aside for a couple failures when outclassed, this horse has been pretty honest; may need a race before he's back to full strength.
The Right Call
Emerald invader struggled in his first two starts outside the maiden ranks; there's nothing unusual about that; most maiden graduates falter against more experienced company; now moves to a tougher circuit and is untested outside EmD; exits some fast races - that's the main thing to like.
He's kept some mighty tough company, quite often running in stakes; throw those races out and this has been a pretty useful horse; winning connections add to the appeal; the one negative is the layoff; he hasn't started since the spring and may not be as fit as his more active opponents; contender.
Lucks With Me
Okay, so he has been running in cheap races; that's a given; but you know what? it takes a nice horse to win 5 out of 12 races; he may be cheap but he has heart; disappointed a bit recently after winning a $25k claimer in fast time; he's a better horse than that.
A nice job by Utley to have this horse ready; he wasn't lacking fitness when he returned from a lengthy layoff, and the horse dusted a field of maiden claimers in pretty good time; gives up a lot of seasoning to these horses; so he's going to need to continue to improve to win 2 straight; talented, but his inexperience puts him at somewhat of a disadvantage.
Handicappers can diagnose his condition...we've seen it time and time again; he has seconditis, a history of running second; that makes you wonder about his desire to win; fast and consistent; he fires just about every time; but when is he going to break free with a victory? a threat for the top prize, but prefer to focus him on the bottom of the exotics.
At the Dock
Alright...that comeback was solid; he figured to need one after a long stay on the shelf, and he comes through with a close 4th; with over 3 weeks between starts, the possibility of a bounce is lessened; would expect him to move forward, not regress - especially with Hollendorfer at the controls.
Won his only start and was claimed; may turn out to be a nice claim for his connections, but this appears to be an ambitious spot; it's one thing to win a maiden $8k claimer at Sac; it's another to beat a field like this at BM; doubt he has the seasoning or the speed necessary to register the upset.
8th Bay Meadows
His 2 starts have not resulted in anything that really gets the blood pumping; he was beaten 13 lengths or more in each outing and will need a form reversal to turn things around; prefer others.
Woke up with a good race when stretched out to 2 turns; even with a class hike, he moved forward; still hard to get too excited about his overall form; still, he appears headed in the right direction.
T for Tiger
Beaten 10 lengths in his only appearance; likely to improve upon that race - most second timers do; just not convinced we'll see 10 lengths improvement; exits a pretty tough race for the level last time; mixed signals.
A pair of 4ths in 2 outs - not a bad record; with some improvement this horse might be ready to hit the board; has never raced beyond 5f, though; not without a shot, but others look a bit stronger.
Sprang to like last time with a close third; but look a little closer...notice how slow that race was; 1:13 for 6f - that would explain why he was suddenly so close at the finish; making progress, but not convinced he's sitting on a win.
Bred to excel on grass, being by Bien Bien out of a Silver Hawk mare; dam won 4 of 25 starts and $143k; this is her first foal to race; interesting pedigree.
First start around 2 turns didn't go as his connections would have hoped; looking past that race, his form is good; he hit the board on 3 consecutive occasions prior to that start; a return to those kind of performances put him right there.
Beaten over 12 lengths in his only appearance; will need to improve with experience to become more competitive; would expect him to display some progress; that first race was probably a big learning experience for him.