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A CLOSER LOOK at Bay Meadows races on 9/26
1st Bay Meadows
Leads this group in terms of previous experience while she lands Russell Baze for the re-ride; that route prep probably didn't hurt her chances today while the class drop can only help the cause; have to admit that the wagering value is probably elsewhere in a race with so many inexperienced runners.
Sire is okay with firsters but placed dam lists only ONE winner from SIX prior foals; like this barn but the works don't give anything away; leaning toward others.
Was bumped early before nabbing 3rd in her debut at this level 2 weeks ago and the filly has a right to move forward in 2nd start; guessing she'll want more ground for best chance but 'Cheer merits exotics consideration.
Didn't complete the course in muddy debut 7 months ago but now the filly drops in for a claiming tag in first try off the bench; like this barn with fresh runners and horse has worked okay; maturity and a fast track should combine to have this gal in the hunt all the way.
Reina de Oro
Credit this one for having good early speed and then observe that she drew the best post to compliment it; this barn is strong while there really isn't much confirmed pace opposition in this dash; certainly a win candidate.
2nd Bay Meadows
Certainly merited lots of votes for claimer of the meeting up at the recent Emerald stand and the gelding ships in sharp in search of 3rd straight score; we're clearly of the opinion that this is the best horse here and they've been willing to risk him for $5K for much of the year; jock knows this guy and here's the horse to beat.
Vying for Gold
Moves in vs. open company after struggling vs. conditioned foes in 2 recent starts here; don't like his lack of early speed in a small cast such as this one and he's going to need help to land in the exacta.
I Am the Ruhler
Was hot at GG last fall but he was riding lone-F trips to success then; runner has struggled in Idaho both before and since and that suggests that if he's not at the top of his game he'll have a tough time with Apico; prefer others.
Just missed on the Cal Expo freeway last out and while his speed will be a strong factor today he's going to face tougher stock; last win happened way back in January and today's opponents will test him a great deal; others more likely for the win.
5yo lands in new barn after a modest 3rd in a race which wasn't very impressive time-wise; his tactical speed should have him in decent early position but when they pop the question on the turn for home it's not probable that his answer will stack up; prefer others.
3rd Bay Meadows
Limited available data on multiple G1 winning sire with regard to his first-time starters, and dam won 15 of 77 starts for 91k, but 10 of those wins came routing; September workouts look O.K., but must deal with rail draw in debut.
Has been well bet in both of her starts, and she showed good improved speed when equipped with blinkers in her most recent start; makes 3rd career start and could very well be set to graduate.
Has yet to finish better than 5th in five career starts, but she did show improved early speed in her latest which could be a positive sign; nevertheless, prefer to see more out of her before making a favorable case.
Limited available data on sire, and dam was unraced; light worktab makes it tough to get a gauge on this filly, so it may be best to let her show what she is made of first.
Limited available data on G3 winning sire with regard to his first-time starters, and dam was unraced; another who is difficult to get a handle on off ordinary looking work tab, so prefer to see one out of her first.
High Brite Glory
She's been soundly defeated in 3 starts to this point in her career, and really doesn't have much early speed to speak of; blinkers go on for this, so perhaps that will make her a bit more sharp early, but big time improvement is needed.
4th Bay Meadows
Didn't break, rushed up, understandably tired; gets an extra sixteenth to work with and the race under her belt can't hurt; draws fence again, is in good hands, could turn it around here.
Was getting to winner, was forced to take up sharply; that doesn't make her a gut here; she could run into trouble again especially if she shows limited speed again; nice move on 9/6 for this; tab tote action.
Tossofthecoin at about 9% with debuters in a 33 horse sample according to DRF stats; dam's other 2 foals to race are a combined zero for 6; dam lost all 5 starts; inexperienced half of hidden Jenda entry, may want to watch one.
Off rail, got a nice little education, could be set to show best race; note show horse in bow was well clear and this gal's race wasn't all that bad considering winner freaked; never easy to win a maiden special after losing for a tag; give her good look on the track.
Shes a Freebie
Limited data on sire with firsters; dam's other foal to race lost 2 starts this year; dam was zero for 5 on the track; don't fret about sluggish works, trained doesn't usually punish them in a.m.; not impossible task.
Lost At Sea
Well clear in Chicago bow, Lasix didn't help on the stretch out in last; show horse in debut returned to run second, beaten 2, in a maiden special spot at Arlington, then was off board there in the Arlington/Washington Futurity; like the way she kept trying to the end in bow; runner looks live.
5th Bay Meadows
Unforgettable R N
Won in game style and note those in company line crushed the rest; winner of debut returned to be a well beaten fourth in a $40k optional; the race over the track has to help and would have to figure Baze to send hard again; respect.
Overmatched last time at the wrong distance; needed $25k maiden sellers and a clear lead to produce win; she may have to fight harder for the front end this time; may want to watch a local effort before going overboard.
Surprised at the beach and note Babbler was 4 clear; place horse in bow returned to run seventh as the chalk in a $32k maiden seller at Fairplex; show horse in bow was off the board twice since; seems to be looking at more zip this time but runner did draw off for fun; dangerous for it all.
Took a shot in the stakes and why not with only 5 in line up; place horse in debut returned to run third here at the Fair for a maiden $32k tag; show horse in bow was fourth in next in a $40k maiden seller at Del Mar; works across the Bay are solid; must be left in the mix.
Needed wraps and fresh Lasix to produce only win; winner of last came back to run tenth in a stakes at Emerald; this miss was well clear in last and she does seem to be moving in the right direction; back to favorite pilot; don't sell too short.
You're On Your Own
Fried when they went :21 and change last time in the first time she hit the board since she was claimed; the other half of hidden Hollendorfer pair, wouldn't expect both halves to duel themselves into ground; filly seeking her proper level and she does have a right to improve after the two races under belt; can't just toss.
Finished together with On Your Own; off the rail this time and drawn where rider can bide time and see how race unfolds; sharp barn would seem to help chances and at least she got a taste of the local strip; contention deep in open 7 pack.
6th Bay Meadows
Honest, speedy and classy; that's a pretty good trio; impressed by how well she ran last time after being beaten to the lead; looking at her PPs it seems clear she's best on the front end; benefits from drawing an inside post; that should allow her to save ground and may help her to get the jump on all the speed to her outside; contender.
Was a strong $12.5k claimer in June and July, but hasn't been quite as effective in recent months; her last race was good, though; she fell further off the pace than accustomed, then closed with a flourish; seems best stalking the pace from 5-6 lengths behind; reunited with Schvaneveldt, who rode her to victory in June here; should benefit from quick splits; some positives.
Veteran took the summer off when the fairs were in action; a good fit classwise; she's raced against classier at various points during her career; was no match for Tonietta in June, but have have been tailing off at that point; shows a series of good works, and Warren sticks with this horse (after also riding Tonietta); may fire fresh.
Got You Slew
Looks a bit cheap from a class perspective; her success has come in lesser races; there aren't many turf races available for less than $12.5k tags; it's reasonable to think she is in this to see what she can do on grass; like Winenpleasue, she's best on the lead, though she can run from just off the pace; a hard-trying filly; demand reasonable value given her inexperience on turf.
First grass race wasn't much to brag about; she stalked fast splits, but offered no punch in the lane; have to wonder if she has the stamina to go 2 turns; her best races have come going short on dirt; impressive sires in her pedigree - but on the basis of what she has done on the track, others look more appealing.
Has been a dud since breaking her maiden in her first start in this country; was one of many who made up ground after falling well behind fast splits 9/16; blinkers added in an attempt to turn things around; back class is her main asset.
Yet another frontrunner who figures to add pace to this race; won her last by shaking loose early; that won't be easily done here; and it's much tougher to wire on grass than on dirt; was good enough to perform well down south - so the slight hike in claiming price may not be a huge obstacle.
Prone to minor awards, but one of the most consistent runners in the field; threw in a rare clunker recently when a bit outclassed; this is her level; should receive a stalking trip behind a fast pace; look for Baze to place her 3rd or 4th early, then launch his move; a must use in the exotics.
Outperformed many of these when 2nd 9/16; she just missed; took advantage of quick splits, but so did the other closers; she also figures to get fast fractions again today; now the bad news - that was her only in-the-money finish all year; it's hard to trust her to put 2 good races back to back; tough to read.
7th Bay Meadows
New connections will need to move this filly up if she is to immediately clear the allowance hurdle; she was a $16k horse at Del Mar; by contrast, Youmakemethorbaby was competitive for $40 - $50k down there; last win came in slow time; siding with others.
Willing to toss out her last race; most offspring of Two Punch want to sprint on the main track; she's no different; note how well she did on dirt at Dmr and Hol; she was a legitimate $40k - $50k claimer there - that suggests she may challenge in an allowance here.
Only win came at Sac, where the competition is easier than at BM; most maiden graduates struggle in their first attempts vs. winners; unless she can clear, like she did last time, it'll be tough for her to win 2 straight; won in fast time recently; and she's run well at BM for the most part; pluses and minuses.
Nicely-bred filly has struggled in 2 allowance starts; can forgive the route failure - maybe she didn't want to go long; what about last time? well, you have to really search for excuses; more than anything, she found herself outsprinted early and seemed to get discouraged; a better horse than what she has shown of late.
Was all out to last against starter runners in February; she did run quickly, however; the bummer is the layoff; she hasn't started in quite some time and may be a race or two away from her best; will need to blaze early to clear; a demanding test off the shelf.
She's actually won 2 allowances, but they came for such small pots that she qualifies for this race; performed well in her first try here; she wasn't able to keep up early, but closed ground late; she probably learned a great deal from that race - unlike in her previous 2 wins, which were effortless scores; contender.
Miss Blue Bayou
Look at all those wins...this horse loves to have her picture taken; she's not merely a claimer; she nearly won an allowance at SR; 4 for 5 with Baze in the irons; loves this track; the one to beat.
Cut her some slack for the recent loss; she hadn't raced in a while and was making her first start against winners; she should fare better this time; unfortunately, she has hit the board just once in 5 starts; to this point she's been an all or nothing kind of horse; shows a couple decent works since her last race; perhaps.
Dream Every Dream
Looked like a filly with an exciting future in her debut when she closed to defeat Chapel Oak; Chapel Oak has since won a MSW and a N1X allowance at AP; last 2 races have been a bit disappointing, although neither was awful; back sprinting, which should help her late punch; Hollendorfer comes off a fine AP meet; beware.
Stakes-place filly has talent; ran a pair of dynamite races this spring in fast events; the question is the layoff; she hasn't run in 6 months; fired off a shorter layoff in March, and she also won her debut - so she seems to be a horse that runs well off the bench.
8th Bay Meadows
Really a Lush
Fits from a class perspective; turf - that's the unknown; she has never raced on grass, and for that matter most of her inexperience has been at 6f and 6.5f; so we don't know if she has the speed to get up going 4.5f; respect her honesty, but prefer others with turf experience.
Out of a Dream
A proven commodity on grass; her last 3 races at BM under similar conditions have resulted in top efforts; her blazing speed also suits her well in a short dash such as this; jock has been aboard this mare for a couple runner-up finishes; contender.
Possesses speed but can stalk effectively; that's a huge plus in a race like this because there are usually a couple speedballs that are going full throttle early; grass is a question mark; ran well fresh here in April following a much shorter layoff; some positives.
Have to wonder if she has enough speed to be effective at 4.5f; if she falls 10 lengths back at 6f, what happens going this short a distance? she might not get into gear until too late; off the board in her only prior grass race.
Classy mare takes a plunge to $12.5k and should be a force; has struggled since being claimed in May, but hasn't run with lesser horses like these; won fresh in March following a hiatus of a year; although she hasn't run on grass in her last 10 starts, she does have turf experience; she was second once on the grass according to her earnings box; big shot on the drop.
Emerald shipper won above this claim price in Washington this summer; so class isn't an issue; she also handles the grass; she was 4th in a starter here last December, and sprinting is more of her thing; some appealing characteristics.
Hasn't produced in quite some time, but notice the company she has kept; would have liked to have seen a better race from her off the bench last time; the good news is that Baze gets aboard; today could be her day now that she has a run under her belt; ran very, very well in turf sprints in SoCal; back class makes her attractive.
Seems far too cheap to win at this level; she's a $4k claimer, not a $12.5k horse; yet to earn a penny in 2 grass starts; doubt she can threaten these.