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A CLOSER LOOK at Bay Meadows races on 9/19
Storm of the Nile
Like the big forward move she made for that 2nd start as she won nicely, but sheesh why hasn't she been seen since June 27? Why the sparse worktab since? Certainly a good fit here but there are issues, one of which is if this filly is ready and rarin' to go for Hollendorfer why is Jerry's main man Baze on Bargain Betty instead? tricky read.
Looked good blasting maiden claimers and Baze keeps the call; filly has shown in her last pair that she likes it here and can run inside, and from a tactical aspect that speed is awfully scary, though a couple others in here figure to at least make her work for it early; still looks pretty tough.
Game maiden win last time ? dueled hard, looked beat in midstretch but came back on again; of course, she was on the pace last time because the pace was so slow - it figures quicker today what with 'Betty and Seductress having more speed, but at least 2 races ago she showed she could pass horses; threat.
First race vs. winners wasn't too hot, but note it was in a stakes race - obviously DeLima saw something he liked; first he claimed her, then brought her back in that stakes; things didn't work out but she's a much better big here and her maiden win shows there's some gas in the tank; dangerous.
Throw out that Aug. 22 race at SAC when she broke slowly and otherwise her form is rock solid; in fact, her speed figures to give her a great trip either on the pace or stalking 'Betty if that foe proves quicker; being outside won't hurt; capable.
Yet to make much of a dent vs. maidens except for the one time she got to race here at this level - that cold be key; apparently can handle the trip and being back in this element figures to help her considerably; chance.
The way she ran on last time makes her the likely favorite, but there are issues here; first, just because they rally sprinting it doesn't mean they'll route; also, she closed big last time with the help of a sizzling pace and pace collapse - that might not be the case here; that being said she is BRED to route and Baze sees fit to ride; big player.
Yet to be much of a factor vs. winners, and that includes a number of races for this price tag and a couple of route; of course, most of that work came in Arizona but she's been even less of a factor in her 2 SoCal races; outsider.
Shown of a hint of speed in a couple races but even so the fades have been distressingly severe; they try a new game today and maybe with her speed pressing much slower splits she's eligible to hang around longer, but that's a pretty big maybe; shaky.
Figures to take some money what with 6 3rds in 12 career starts but her overall lack of speed is awfully tough to embrace ? she simply leaves herself with too much to do; at least figures to keep running, handles the trip and has been competitive at this level but she's still tough to embrace with that kind of style particularly when you look up and see 3-1 or so; tough call.
Hmmm - last should give her a feel for the track, she has some tactical speed and being by Candi's Gold the mile should be what she wants; her main foes here (Sierra Silence and Lakes Girl) have little or no speed so she figures to get a big headstart on them pressing or setting what figures a slowish pace; that gives first run and every edge - so long as she handles the trip; looks good.
Has some speed and gets the rail, which will be an advantage if he can break alertly; faded in his latest try after chasing a fast pace, which followed a game maiden win, and the fractions promise to be at least honest this time, too, with Instant Equity and Mountain Flag in the race; certainly a pace factor but may have trouble shaking off the speeds and holding off the closers.
Away for a while but has been training steadily for his return; scored at Stockton two back against lesser but was professional in victory, pushing the pace and closing inside; his last, against stakes runners, can be forgiven, as he figures to run much better at this level; his inside post and ability to rate are big advantages, too; threat for the exacta.
Figured it all out last time when he rated off the pace and closed well to break his maiden against statebreds; makes the logical rise and catches a short yet speedy field that should provide ample pace for him as a closer; if he can take back and make one run, as he did in her latest, he figures to pick up the tiring speeds and can win the whole thing with a little racing luck.
Faded in his latest when in for a bigger price tag, when he was unable to make the lead; seems like a one-dimensional colt at the moment, as he doesn't appear to be capable of taking back off the pace; given that fact, he's likely to get caught up in a duel with Ohtobe and Mountain Flag, a couple of other speedballs in here; note that his lone win came when he was able to shake loose and dictate the pace, an unlikely scenario today.
Drops in for a tag after facing better in each of his last two; note the super-quick fraction he posted while on the lead under pressure last time, which explains why he tired late; meets lesser but the race flow is not in his favor, and the price, with Baze aboard, will not be enticing; certainly capable of putting away Instant Equity and Ohtobe and staving off the closers but it won't be easy; looking to try and beat him under the cirumstances, though it's tough to dismiss him completely.
Given the fact that several of these are stretching out from sprints, it's tough to get a handle on the race flow; it does seem the winner of this one will be rather close-up to the early pace, as there's not all that much speed in here; this one may in fact prove to be the one to catch, given the fact that she has some zip as well as the rail; she's had good success over this track and seems to fit on the slight drop; major threat on the lead.
Another candidate to set the tempo, as she's shown speed in the past; one knock is her inability to hit the board in three starts at this distance but given today's race flow she has to be in a good spot against this short field; recent form is poor but she's faced better, and she returns to the track where she's posted both of her career wins; expecting her to turn it around some.
Steady mare has been running well of late at all kinds of tracks; she closed well enough to be 2nd at this distance back in July, although it should be noted that the pace was kind of quick there, and it's hard to tell where the speed is coming from in this one; her consistency makes it tough to dismiss her but it seems wise to lean to those runners with more early zip.
Has been on the turf for a few of her recent races but seems to prefer the main track; her win percentage is lacking, and with Baze listed you're sure to get an underlaid price on this one; the fact that she has some speed is good but she seems far more likely to complete the exacta than key it; may be best used "underneath".
She's been very sharp of late, running 1st or 2nd in her last five starts, but this stone closer may be up against it here unless she gets some help from the pacesetters; she was 2nd as the 4/5 favorite at Hollywood in April and was shelved after the claim, which is more than likely a bad sign; recent works are blah, too; looking to leave her out.
Emerald ship-in has been on the board in her last two but she's another who may be at the mercy of the pace, and in a race that lacks a clear-cut pacesetter that puts her at a disadvantage; her record over this track is encouraging but her overall mark is not; not expecting her to run them down late.
Finished 2nd last time but had the benefit of a clean trip up the rail, and some decent fractions in front of her; she draws another inside post but she seems best suited to taking back and making one run, and the lack of pace in this one could work against her; others look better.
She seems to be in a pretty good spot here, as she's one of only a couple of speeds in the race and she's well-drawn inside; she scored against non-winners of two last time at this track and distance and she's got a good chance to shake loose this time, too; huge threat.
Has been away for a while and she had no real excuse not to crack the exacta last time against non-winners of two, when she enjoyed an inside trip behind a fast pace; she's best when she's able to take back early and make a run late, and that running style doesn't fit well in this one, a fairly paceless sprint; others look better.
"The other speed" in the race, along with B. Fabulous; she may in fact be the key to this one, as she may be the only filly in the field capable of keeping that rival honest on the lead; she has some zip of her own but can also stalk, which may be the way to go given the fact that B. Fabulous is inside of her; she has the right running style and is perfectly capable of capping - or even keying - a two-speed number.
Closed to win first time out against maidens, then rallied wide in her return last time; she does have a decent late kick but she'll likely be up against it here, given the way the race shapes up; leaning more toward those runners who figure to be in close range early on.
Took 10 tries to break her maiden, then was no real threat in her first start against winners despite having good position behind a fast pace; incidentally, her maiden win was courtesy of a perfect inside trip behind a quick pace; not on our list.
Has a touch of speed but seems better suited to stalking the pace, and she faded last time after pushing the pace against non-winners of two other than|; the fact that she'll be close up is a big edge in this one, but the aforementioned speeds (Forever Rita and B. Fabulous) seem faster, and better; still, she can hang on for a smaller share if the pace is indeed pokey.
Stone closer is outside here, and her running style puts her at an immediate disadvantage; she finally broke her maiden last time but had the benefit of a quick pace, not a likely scenario this time; figures to offer too little, too late.
Had a legit excuse last time when she lost her action, and she faded; the problem, though, is that she was suspicious on the drop in class that time, and she drops again here; that drop, combined with the poor recent form and the comment from her last race are all warning signs, and the outside post and likely short price are added negatives; Baze stays, which is a plus, and she does have some speed, but she seems vulnerable as a probable underlay.
Show Me the Moolah
Looks to have come back in better form and considering that he likes the oval he should be competitive; he will have a chance to make the front end or at least trip well from the inside with the recent works; his last win would make him the tough one; contender.
Was winning with easier two starts ago and he usually does his best racing with easier and has not fared so well in his last couple here with better; off his latest he does not look to be one of the more likely in here.
Was winning for the second time last start and he has just put things together as a 5-year-old with a couple of wins in his last few starts; not sure that he will be able to catch up to this pace at this shorter distance; has a nice work if that makes a difference; in good form he is iffy though not out of the question if the track happens to fair to closers.
Double Dollar Day
Has but one win and that was a long time ago; he has done little in his recent races and there is little reason to expect that the return here will produce that much better as he steps up to face tougher.
Tried these last time but if that was a meaningful indictor of what he can do he will have his hands full; the fact that two of his wins have come here do not seem so relevant after his latest; would see the reversal as improbable this time following the poor longer race last time.
Has one of the best race records and the lone sophomore may have some room to improve; he has been showing more competitiveness in his recent races and could be tough though the prospect of a faster pace looms on the horizon; has a recent work and is a possibility with a better race.
Was a winner here last time in what may have been a slower race and pace than he might expect to confront today; how he will cope with that could determine just how well he does today; he is probably a high-risk play today.
Was a winner in a similar class last time and the fact that he overcame a fast pacer and has a number of wins against easier but which allow him to qualify is worthy of consideration; he generally runs well and is likely to be competitive in this situation; contender.
Has a past win here and while he will be up in class for today's race and will have to cope with Anniversary Year he is a possibility especially if playing exotics and are looking for one who might round out a ticket with a little spice, just as he did two starts ago from an outer post and far back .
French claimer is hard to get a line on as though she did run a little better last time where she showed better early run; shipping up north and facing easier she might be up to a better race than she has run in NA so far and while she may not look so good, would not discount her chances from a better post especially in a race where her speed could play a major role.
By a decent enough turf sire there is little turf under the first two dams; she has tried this classification without much success on dirt; not sure that she is seen as a turf move up but if she is she can make an impact in this compact set; a possibility.
Got The Memo
Returns from some time away to try the turf up north and she would seem to be one of the likely pace runners and could be sharp and ready off the recent work tab; she has too many starts to really like in this condition but if she is able to get a favorable pace trip she is likely to stick around a long while; a distinct possibility.
She owns the best recent form and it comes on the turf; she is still a maiden and is now in with claimers for the first time on the turf though she does tackle some one-time winners; maybe this time she will be able to get by the last one, or hold one at bay; she has a flexible style and should get a good trip; she has run well fresh and the barn can get them ready; contender though she must be backed up for sure ... if she is played to win.
Improved when dropped as she goes back to the turf with claiming winners this time; her first turf race was good enough to think that now that she is fit and knows what to do that she will be better for that one; have to make her a contender and while she will have to improve, she should and she should go by her stable mate late; as likely as any.
Never like these one for 25 types under any circumstances; she has her share of decent turf races and can be get a piece of it though would have to focus on others for the win with her record in that department.
Must respect fact that colt has been a consistent checkgetter, but there are a couple of reasons others seem more probable for the win in this spot; for starters, all of these have an age and experience edge over him as he is just 3, and has won just one race - all of these are older than him and have each won two races; seems more in line for a minor award.
Another who has been a consistent sort; he finished a close fifth against similar in his last start, and before that finished third as the favorite in a fast race at this afternoon's distance; like his most recent workout, and were he to run back to his win three starts ago, he would be tough to handle; the bad news is he must face one who finished in front of him last time, Moscow U.
One of the highest earners in the field, he finished in front of the horse to his immediate inside last out when he was a sharp third at this level and distance; he has been on top of his game as of late, winning the race before his last start, and as a result has the look of a win candidate under the riding colony kingpin, Baze.
Ruled in his last start when he drove to a one-length win at this distance; his versatile speed - he can make the pace or sit close behind - always makes him a threat; biggest concern is that two races back he could not hold off one he faces again this afternoon, Moscow U.; nonetheless, he worked a big five furlongs the other morning, and appears to be sitting on another strong race.
Takes a meaningful drop in class from allowance to claiming ranks, and notice he has not been offered for a tag this form cycle; he might find the competition against these a little more to his liking given the class drop, and notice before his last race he was a consistent performer against tougher foes than he faces this afternoon; appears to be a win candidate.
Southern California invader should be sharp for the stretch back out to two turns after finishing a good fifth in a sprint at Dmr; he should also appreciate returning to the conditioned claiming ranks after facing open rivals in his last two; has fared well over the local strip in he past, and son of Cee's Tizzy - the sire of Horse of the Year Tiznow - is yet another who appears to be a win candidate.
- Editor's note - The Closer Look feature, which is normally available only to drf.com subscribers, is being offered free of charge until Daily Racing Form can produce its full statistical and editorial product.