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A CLOSER LOOK at Bay Meadows on 10/05
4th Bay Meadows
Not enough make up around for her to post a win in last 2 years; forget grass fray in last; mare has limited speed but that 69 Beyer two back would put her in the middle of the fray here; everything will have to fall perfectly into place.
Our Kissin Kate
Likes to win races, but will probably have to come from out of it on the cut back; she can handle the distance but has been excelling going long of late; pace duel would enhance her chances; too sharp to ignore.
Fair Lady Light
Sharp barn, she's won on the cut back, and it was also off a mile win; show horse 7/27 returned to win a $12.5k N2x fray, then was third in a similar spot 9/8; stalking and pounce job in prospect; dangerous for all the marbles.
Trainer does a nice job without top echelon stock; winner of Hollypark finale won a $10k seller in next, was fourth in a stakes at Pleasanton, second in a $6,500 starter, and off board in last 2 efforts; win over track has to help; repeat well within realm.
May be long gone if he can settle and rate and still show the kind of speed she did 8/20 at the beach; horse he beat a length 8/31 returned to win a $12.5k starter at Fairplex at 9-2; draw a line through grass try when wraps were added; theft potential.
Do the Sweep
Who was she facing at Emerald?; winner of last is 5 for 27 career, returned after 9/13 fray to run seventh for a $15k price; place horse 9/2 came back to get beat a head in a similar spot; Gaiter Girl is 4 for 29 career, has earned just over a grand a start; could see her dawdle early, make huge move late.
5th Bay Meadows
One for 30 tells most of the tale; he's hit the board once since being eased from the rail going long across town; show horse 8/17 won a $3,200 seller in next, then was crushed in a $6,500 N3l spot; needs to hurry.
Took 8 months off after being eased, then ran dead last; that does not compute; now he drops to career soft spot; another red flag; give this one going over in paddock/post parade before unloading.
Mi Mister D
Got good in summer on Fair circuit, has not looked the same since grass experiment; comes off even try, gets new pilot and nothing wrong with blowout since; looms late threat if at all.
Top last race Beyer in tow, runner seems to have controlling speed, he was tons best of rest in last and came back with a good drill for sharp barn; show horse 9/2 won in a similar spot in next by a neck; catch him to greet cashier.
The old race over the track angle almost worked at 63-1; no reason runner will not improve but he could be looking at a half mile split a full second faster; ran big for this rider across town showing more speed in spring of 2000; can never dismiss speed.
Dance With Kelly
Been knocking on the door, but he's had a lot of chances to move through this condition; could envision another solid stalking trip for gelding; note he has broke poorly in 2 of last 3 starts; off rail, can't toss.
Lion From Zion
Nothing wrong with backing lightly raced stock at this level; at least he has not proven himself to be a proven failure; show horse 9/26 returned to win a $8k maiden event to bring his record to one for 14; erase his mile tries, take note of troubled trip the day he was claimed, and form does not look all that bad; look out.
Attended a fast pace last time but it was on the highway known as Sacramento; winner of 2001 debut has won 5 times this year, most recently a $6,500 starter at Fairplex as the chalk 9/13; it appears gelding could enjoy more real estate; second best of 17 move in tow; must be left in the mix.
Faced a much tougher open $10k field in last; got a slice in 2 of 3 attempts vs. winners and the Pomona debut was decent; in good barn, back to favorite pilot, and could see runner getting stalking journey; some angles to work with.
6th Bay Meadows
Has more 2001 wins than all of today's foes put together while you can draw a line through that last race for it having taken place on the lawn; like the speed figures in this corner while she's done okay at the Bay over the years; holds a very strong hand.
Goes for a barn which is solid off of a layoff and most of this barn's starters like to go long; this one owns good tactical speed along with okay Beyer scores; seems trifecta worthy.
First route in a while was encouraging but now the filly moves up in class and must face Fastasucan once again; think this gal will be more fit this time and may offer more resistance during the final furlong; needs to improve to win the thing and she probably wouldn't mind it if it rained.
Makes 2nd start for an outfit which claimed her for $32K at Del Mar and this mare has certainly turned a downward corner since last appearing locally; she's capable of solid speed figures but this one doesn't routinely finish with a big punch; think we'll watch one here before backing.
Has gone a long while between drinks but this 4yo continues to earn a paycheck almost every time; record at this trip suggests shying away from this Lumm trainee on the win end yet her speed figures and Regular jock give hope that she's a strong exotics contender; maybe.
Mare hasn't won in bleems and she's 0-for-the-exacta in 13 starts at this trip; there isn't a speed figure on the page that could hope to contend with the best of these and this is quite the longshot.
7th Bay Meadows
Power To Burn
Comeback try was dull from the local rail and now the filly is stuck right back inside; note carefully that she was a first-out winner last fall so it made sense to have greater expectations for that last performance; we're going to let this kind beat us.
Mare is 5-for-10 career-wise and of critical importance in evaluating her lines from the old country is the large field sizes; she beat 16 in her penultimate start and she did so convincingly; we've always liked this barn off the bench and those works say that trainer Larry has tightened the screws for a bang-up try here; for use in all multi-race exotics.
Most of All
Hollendorfer trainee has been stuck on this level for quite some time as she still looks forward to her first win in the 00's; this one hasn't finished with a great deal of punch this year and we're thinking it's going to take one of her better efforts to even threaten for the exacta today; like others more.
2nd half of the 'dorfer-trained entry was a winner of her only start to date but she didn't make it to the races until the latter half of her 4yo season; pace was pretty relaxed when she landed the lone-F trip and this one is going to have to step it up to beat this kind; work-tab has been brief since last start; mixed signals.
This one is sharp and she had a license to need a race over the course last time; note that 'Adiba began from the rail before she battled up front for quite some time; this marks first try in the N1X ranks but we won't eliminate a 6-time winner in 2001.
Baze lands on this n2l type despite the fact that Hollendorfer starts a pair here; this one counts as a 'router sprinting fresh' and a couple of the very poor efforts on the page can be excused given the yielding turf; work-tab has been steady; could happen.
8th Bay Meadows
Memo To Eve
Battled on a modest pace before retiring early in her last one and that after a summer during which she struggled on the fair circuit; the inside post may force her hand a bit and it's noteworthy that her only score on the page was by a nose in a 4-horse race; prefer others.
Sat a nice trip before finishing well to just miss to $4000 runners up north last time and this is a runner with 6 exacta finishes from 8 starts; a solid rider takes the call and the filly seems to be a better candidate for improvement than are some of today's foes; draw a line through the wet-track speed figures and take another look; solid exacta contender.
Lists but a single exacta finish in her life and that was in the old country back in the 90's; Fairplex speed figures were dull while the sea side campaign was easy to forget; hood went on last time but she'll need to improve significantly to get there today; nope.
Moves off the rail after being guided to victory by Russell B. in that last start; this one has great license for improvement given that she's just a 3yo; we'd entertain thoughts of a sharp sophomore vs. a group like this any day; figures prominently.
High Wire Red
Comes off the bench for Ed Moger after 7 months away and this is another one eligible for some improvement since her last campaign; steady sort was sent to the lead on a wet track last time so we'll excuse that run; recent works have been a mixed bag while the only score vs. winners happened vs. Cal-bred's; barn is solid off of long layoffs; on some exotics tickets.
South City Slew
Beat 1 in latest but did notch a convincing win over n2l's at Santa Rosa in July; figure-wise this runner is capable of contending with this kind while her tactical speed and wide post make for a good combination; just have the feeling that we want to lean toward 1 or 2 others for the top slot.
Here's another one moving off the rail and into a cozy outside post; excuse the last one as she was gunned to the lead while trying to overcome the fence; think the August win came as a gift from the hot pace while her only other victory happened in the mud; others appear more likely.
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