Updated on 09/16/2011 7:32AM

Cetewayo standout, but not a lock


Based on class and proficiency at the marathon distance of 1 1/2 miles, Cetewayo stands out as the most likely winner of Saturday's $100,000 Greenwood Cup Handicap at Philadelphia Park. But he may not be as much of a lock as he appears at first glance.

Cetewayo has enjoyed a career revival at age 8 for trainer Michael Dickinson. Winless for 15 months after taking the Grade 2 Red Smith Handicap in New York in November 2000, Cetewayo rebounded to win the Grade 1 Gulfstream Park Breeders' Cup Handicap in February. His 107 Beyer Speed Figure also was a career best.

In two starts since then, both in graded stakes at the Greenwood distance of 12 furlongs, Cetewayo has finished second and third, both times when he was the favorite. Meanwhile, his Beyers have declined dramatically, dropping from 107 to 101 to 93.

If Cetewayo's regression continues, he could be a vulnerable favorite. Regal Dynasty ranks as his most dangerous rival. A 6-year-old gelding trained by Thomas Voss, Regal Dynasty finished well ahead of Cetewayo when they met in last fall's Red Smith. In his only start since then, Regal Dynasty finished fourth in an optional claimer at Pimlico. If he moves forward off that tightener, he is capable of winning.

Dawn of the Condor, who is also trained by Dickinson but will race uncoupled, has a win over the Philly turf course at 1 1/2 miles. But he was no match for Cetewayo when he raced against his stablemate in the Gulfstream Park BC.

Lightly raced Chopper Won is the sharp horse stepping up in class for trainer Alan Goldberg. The 4-year-old Chopper One makes only his fourth career start off a pair of sharp efforts at 1 1/8 miles in New York and Delaware. He's making his stakes debut and is still eligible for two-other-than allowances.

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