Updated on 09/18/2011 12:22AM

BreezeFigs update - Feb. 9


to help you handicap maiden races more effectively-for 2-year-olds, and for the same crop through June of their 3-year-old year. We'll do this by giving examples of what worked-and, occasionally, what did not work-if you followed the guidelines we have posted on this site for using this tool.

You would do well to start by looking at a new report we have just posted that will give the actual record of 2-year-old racing of 2005 as far as the 2-year-old sales (where BreezeFigs are compiled) are concerned. The document shows which sales had the most winners, how often first timers won from each sale, which BreezeFigs Groups at each sale produced the most winners, which sales and Groups produced the most stakes horses, and other information that you should use as a reference each time you need some more background information. Save it to your disk or print it out. to get it.

Our purpose is to show you that even though the sales were held between February and June of last year, BreezeFigs are viable for at least a year and provide a fundamental handicapping edge especially when used with solid handicapping and assessment of form.

One of the most important things you will discover is that almost 40% BreezeFigs horses have no 2-year-old sale data in the PP's-they either failed to reach their reserves in the bidding (RNA), or were withdrawn from the sale after they breezed at least once. They still earned BreezeFigs.

We will concentrate on maiden races only, even though you get BreezeFigs for each horse through its fourth start. Let's take a look at the weekend of February 4-5 for some hints as to how you could have used BreezeFigs to boost your overall ROI in maiden races only at Aqueduct and Gulfstream (we will cover other tracks as well in future editions).

At Aqueduct, there were three races to play:

: Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs

Both Santa's Special and Uncle Festor breezed at EASMAY but neither met its reserve (RNA) and wound up in the Paraneck Stable, a good first-time outfit. Both of them were Group 2 horses at the sale, Santa's Special (making his second start) at Par and Uncle Festor (first-timer) a point above Par. Santa's Special got off slowly and raced greenly in his first start, and earned a 61 Beyer while finishing fourth-at 77-to-1. That's a good effort, and since Uncle Festor had a better BreezeFig, the entry was worth a look. The field looked relatively weak with a couple of firsters and some horses that had shown little form to date. As it turned out, the entry went off at 7-to-2 third choice, but a 32-to-1 shot, Napoleon T N T got the jump on the field and wired it, with Santa's Special following him all the way around to complete a $286 exacta, with Uncle Festor fourth. The entry paid $4.60 and $2.70 to place and show, respectively.

: Maiden Claiming 25k (NYBreds), 6 Furlongs

This is a weak bunch of horses-New York Breds who can't win against their own kind in maiden special races. Two horses came out of the sales-Feelin' the Blues, making his second start for long-time inner-track specialist John Parisella, who came out of EASMAY as a Group 4, but only one under Par; and Wood Winner, who came out of the OBSAPR as a Group 4, two under Par. Both had Beyer figs that were similar and were worth a look, especially when they made Dilbert Schmeckles 3-to-2 favorite off a similar Beyer. We do not normally like considering these horses because they are under Par in Group 4 at moderate sales-but in a weak field, you might want to nibble here and there if there are no other obvious plays. As it turns out, Feelin' the Blues went off at almost 9-to-1, took the lead at the start and looked safe home until Wood Winner (6-to-1) moved at the eight pole to catch and pass him to pay $14.40 and set up a $112 exacta and $48 quinella involving two Group 4 horses.

: Maiden Special Weight (NYBreds) 1/1/16 miles

Three horses in this race all had decent BreezeFigs at very modest sales, but all had raced and put up competitive Beyers with the rest of the field-high 50s. This was a tough one all around. Red Zipper had run three times, with a lot of time between races, without much success at sprints. He was stretching out for the first time-he was a Group 1 at the OBSAPR sale with a 7 over Par BreezeFig, at which he sold for $40k, so he was worth at least a "saver" bet here. Lethal Missile had two good races and looked like the logical favorite-he was a $70k purchase at OBSJUN, a very moderate sale, at which he was a Group 2 and earned a 2 over Par BreezeFig. Northern Blue came out of OBSJUN at even Par, and was only $15k, and his first start was not promising. It looked as though Lethal Missile might be worth a bet, but if he was then so was Red Zipper, who despite being by speedster City Zip might benefit from stretching out-and had a better BreezeFig at a better sale. The race worked out the way it might have looked on paper except for two things: Red Zipper, off at almost 14-to-1, took the lead, was challenged by Lethal Missile, but kept going to win by more than three lengths and paid $29.40. The latter was eased, and may have been hurt in the end. Northern Bay never got in the hunt.

There were also three races to play at Gulfstream:

: Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs

Four BreezeFig horses lined up and each had a viable chance. Jacinth had the best BreezeFig-a Group 1 who got a five over Par at FTFFEB, a very good effort at a top sale, and was pinched back in his only start at Aqueduct. Zodiak Zack was a $210k colt at EASMAY but was making his first start-he was a Group 2, four over Par at that sale, and came from the Afleet Alex connection. He was on the rail, however, a tough spot for a firster. Megapunch, coming off a good 76 Beyer fig in his second-place debut, was a point below Par on his OBSMAR BreezeFig (he was RNA) which is about as low as you can go in a race like this; still, his debut stamped him as potentially legitimate. He's Gone West, who also ran a decent Beyer in his debut when third (74), was a Group 4 at two under Par at OBSFEB, a good sale and normally one to consider, but this was shaping up as a toughie on all sides and he never went through the ring-he was scratched after breezing, always a dicey signal. The most logical play on BreezeFigs and form was Jacinth-he was really wrecked in his debut and was very highly rated at the sale. Plus, he's by Crafty Prospector, whose kids are dynamite on a sloppy track. Megapunch looked best on form, and Zodiak Zack offered some interest as well. The latter was rushed from the gate to make the lead, ran a super race but weakened late to finish fourth in a four-horse photo won by Jacinth, who nailed Megapunch at the wire to pay $32.80. The exacta came back $82.60. He's Gone West never got in the hunt.

: Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs

Extremely tough race on paper-four of the seven starters were BreezeFigs horses, all with good numbers, topped by Protagonus, a firster from Zito who was a Group 2 two over Par at KEEAPR, a sale that has been very inconsistent of late, but still attracts quality horses. Crafty Chip, a $95k purchase at OBSJUN, a very modest sale, was also a Group 2 and two over Par, but the sales class made a difference here. Steel the Glory had run three good races at Calder, each against good fields, and showed a Group 2 BreezeFig, one over Par, at OBSMAR where he was listed as RNA-tough to ignore, but he's had his chances, might use him in the gimmicks. Archilles, another KEEAPR firster, was a Group 3, two under Par, at that sale but was scratched after breezing. Looks like you could go with Protagonus all things being equal. Steel the Glory, sent off at 7-to-5, took the lead and ran well, but was caught at the eighth pole by Protagonous, who showed good speed to get into position and drew off to win by almost two, and paid $15.20. Crafty Chip sucked up for third, more than eight lengths behind, and Archilles did little. The exacta paid $20.40 and the trifecta came home at $220.00.

Sunday had an interesting play at Aqueduct, and one where you had too many choices:

, Maiden Claiming (25k), 1 1/16 Miles

Chief Speed was listed as an RNA Group 2, two over Par at OBSAPR, and had been slammed at the start in his first race, a bottom maiden claimer at six panels, but recovered to finish fifth and was now stretching out. He was part of a Parisella entry-he'd been second the previous day with a BreezeFig horse, Feelin' the Blues. Good Looking Out was in the same sale, was also RNA, and was four under Par-he was an obvious throw out, because his BreezeFig was confirmed by his terrible form to date. Head Ofthe Charles, who was improving steadily while dropping down the ladder, came out of OBSMAR with a 2 under Par BreezeFig, the type of horse that is a "saver," sometimes, especially when his claiming price is cut in half. Chief Speed looked like a good bet-and he went wire-to-wire to win by six and paid $11.20. Head Ofthe Charles held steady to be second as second choice to complete a $40 exacta. Good Looking Out was where he belonged-last.

, Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs

There were six BreezeFigs horses in this race, and all of them had a shot based on that alone. Three came out of EASMAY and all were first-timers: Exorcise the Demon (Group 2, five over Par), Sister Silver (Group 2, two over Par) and Kit Kat Klub (Group 3, one under). Tenure Track had started once, had a bad start, and had to be given a chance off the 4 over Par, Group 2 rating she had at OBSMAR. Bella Lago came out of a terrific sale (OBSFEB) with a good BreezeFig (Group 2, one over Par), and had shown good form in three races-solid chance. The horse with "technically" the best BreezeFig, S. S. Belle, was a Group 1, six over Par, but that was at OBSAPR-not the best sale in the world-and she'd finished a wide fifth in her debut, for a tag. There were too many opportunities here, and there were also other horses in the race that had good form, including Firery Pursuit, who'd finished a neck behind Bella Lago in their last race. If there was a bet here, it might have been Bella Lago and Exorcise the Demon in gimmicks with Firery Pursuit. The latter won easily over Bella Lago for a $31.40 exacta and $16.40 quinella. Exorcise the Demon showed speed and faded to sixth, worth a look next time.

At Gulfstream, there were three races to consider:

, Maiden Special Weight, 6 1/2 Furlongs

Well-bred fillies, most of them firsters, including Dixie Marone, who'd come out of the EASMAY sale as a 90k sale, Group 2, one over Par, but had dwelt in her only start. Always a risk and a throw-out-watch for next time. The other, Elle's Reign, a firster, was a Group 4, four under Par at OBSJUN, a bad showing at a modest sale, was RNA to boot, a must to avoid. Dixie Marone hesitated at the start and finished last; Elle's Reign showed nothing.

, Maiden Claiming (32k), 6 Furlongs

Three fillies trying to break their maidens in a weak field, best of which on BreezeFigs was first-timer Elusive Faith, a Group 1, two over Par horse at FTFFEB, a very good sale-but she was an RNA. Obviously there is something amiss since horses like this don't usually start off in claimers, but she had good connections and was worth a shot in the gimmicks. Two OBSAPR graduates were also in the race-Nitro Shock, (Group 2, one over Par) who'd shown little in three starts, and Pyrite Martha (Group 3, one under Par, RNA), a firster. Both should have been throw outs. The winner was a first timer who sold cheaply as a yearling, and paid $25.80. Elusive Faith was second at almost 5-to-1 for a $60 exacta, Pyrite Martha clunked up for third at 72-to-1 to complete a $1,834 trifecta.

, Maiden Special Weight, 6 1/2 Furlongs

Lots of pricey fillies here, with only one BreezeFig starter-Veneti, a first timer from Darley, a good outfit, that only brought $75k at OBSMAR where she was a Group 2, two over Par. The rest of the field was either firsters or fillies who'd shown a maximum Beyer of 66-which is what could be projected for Veneti. She was worth some kind of a wager, went out to the lead and won by more than a length to pay $9.40.