10/24/2007 11:00PM

BreezeFigs Special Breeders' Cup Quick-Pix: Juvenile Races

EmailThis is a special edition of our regular DRF.com Saturday feature in which we make spot plays based on horses that earned BreezeFigs™ at the 2-year-old sales this year. As such, we are only going to concentrate on three races—the Juvenile Turf, the Juvenile Fillies and the Juvenile—and only assess the chances of "BreezeFigs-qualified horses." Our purpose is to make sure you don't overlook horses that might have better-than-expected chances based on both the speed they showed at these sales, and their stride lengths—the latter factor often a big consideration in races around two turns.

To find out more about BreezeFigs, and our guidelines about "BreezeFigs qualified" runners, click on BreezeFigs Information underneath the two BreezeFigs links in the DRF-PLUS box in the right hand column on the home page and download files there. Remember, keep stride length (SL) in mind when handicapping BreezeFigs horses and take advantage of all the tips that we provide on those sheets as well.

Here we go, good luck!

Friday: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, , One Mile (Turf)

It's logical that the Europeans might take most of the money here, but there are two factors working against them: 1) This is a mile around two turns, which they have not experienced as yet, and 2), there are four really good BreezeFigs horses here (all Group 1 on our scale) that can make this a memorable inaugural event, even if the turf comes up soft.

Both Gio Ponti and The Leopard come out of the FTFFEB sale with excellent credentials which they showed were true to form now that they are stakes winners. Gio Ponti had a 69 Fig, four-over-Par, and the longest stride length (SL) of this quartet, 24.66 ft., which was .75 ft longer than average for colts at that sale. The Leopard was not far behind with a 24.34 SL and a two-over-Par Fig. Cherokee Triangle threw in a 67 Fig (four-over-Par) and 24.5 ft stride length at the EASMAY sale, which was a half-foot longer than average for colts at that sale. Prussian, who will be one of the favorites, had the highest Fig of all, a six-over-Par 72, and a solid 24.24 ft SL, which was well over a foot better than colts at the KEEAPR sale.

Based on the BreezeFigs and their subsequent form, we’d go for Cherokee Triangle in an upset over Prussian, The Leopard and Gio Ponti, in that order—or any combination thereof. That’s how strong we think this quartet is.

Saturday, , Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, 1 1/16 Miles (Dirt)

There are six BreezeFigs fillies in this race—Clearly Foxy, Tasha’s Miracle, Irish Smoke, Set Play, Zee Zee and Backseat Rhythm. We think only the latter is worth a play for two reasons: 1) She is coming to hand at the right time, and did well to clunk up in the mile Frizette on the dirt after breaking her maiden on the turf at a sixteenth further, and 2) She had a super profile at BARMAR where she threw in six-over-Par Fig of 73, and did that at 1/8 mile with an almost unbelievable 25.85 ft SL—a whopping 1.56 ft longer than the average for fillies at that sale. They bought her back (RNA) for $240,000 at the sale, and she looks like she might pay off for them—play her across the board and with whatever other filly strikes your fancy.

Saturday, , Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, 1 1/16 Miles (Dirt)

There are five BreezeFigs horses in this race—Shore Do, Overextended, Salute the Sarge, Wicked Style and Globalization—and every one of them has a shot, even Shore Do, who will be a huge longshot. However, he had the longest SL of all the horses here, 25.57 at BARMAR, which was almost a foot longer than average for colts at that sale, and a superior nine-over-Par Fig of 76, one of the highest of the year. But…he’s not our choice, just use him in the Super.

We love the way Globalization is coming up to this race—breaking his maiden at a mile in his fifth start last month, showing a solid, steady SL all the way—after breezing a mile before the race. He had a slightly above average 23.5 ft SL at OBSMAR, but his Fig was a monster 71, five-over-Par, which means he has power and speed to maintain that SL. Salute the Sarge had a nearly 25 ft SL at the BARMAR sale, but his overall Fig was only one-over-Par at 68. Wicked Style is a lot better than people think. He comes out of the mid-level OBSAPR sale with a one-over-Par 63 Fig, but he showed a 23.97 ft SL at that sale, which was more than a foot longer than average for colts at that sale—and that’s turned out to be a good sale, so he is a good horse.

We are going to go for a "Wilko" here—Globalization and Wicked Style, backed up by Salute the Sarge and Shore Do in the Tri and Super. This could be a shocker.

Of course, we could be wrong, but we’re going to enjoy ourselves anyway! (P.S. We also LOVE Smokey Stover, a major BreezeFigs horse in 2005, in the Sprint.) Good luck and have fun!