09/02/2011 2:00PM

BreezeFigs Quick-Pix Saturday September 3rd


So, we were wrong again, but at least Fire On Ice might have saved you if we’d said box the Pletcher entry with the ones from our Pix that the board said you should like the best.  Maybe you did, and if so you could at least admire the fact that this was an impressive performance by a colt who may or may not be the goods.  In any case, with the big holiday weekend coming up and Saratoga closing, we thought it would be interesting to look at what’s happened so far this year with BreezeFigs 2-year-olds before getting to our Pix (two races below, good luck!).   Here’s a simplified overview of what happened from the beginning of April through August 31st across North America (level of racetrack and class of race not considered):

  1. 590 individual BreezeFigs horses started;
  2. 144 of them broke their maidens.
  3. 89 of those winners (62%) were Group 1 or Group 2 horses—which represented 27% of all the Group 1 and Group 2 starters (many raced against each other);
  4. 28 of those winners qualified as potential BreezeFigs Pix because they were one or two points below Par and had decent numbers otherwise—which represented 22% of all those starters (who also raced against each other many times);
  5. 117 of those winners, therefore, qualified to be considered BreezeFigs Pix.
  6. 12 of those winners won stakes races, eight of which qualified as BreezeFigs Pix.
  7. Both Graded SWs were Group 1 horses.

Before we get to the business of Pix, remember the 2011 sales sheets have a major change in the NOTES section: The OBSFEB sale was eliminated and combined with OBSMAR, and that forced a re-evaluation of the CLASS EDGE for the various sales.  Pay attention because there has been an upgrade for OBSMAR and a consolidation of categories.

Also, don’t forget the change we made for the 2010 sales sheets (which is also in the 2011 sheets), in the SALE column: It’s now labeled SALE & HIP, the “HIP” referring to the catalogue number for that horse in that sale.  This reference will enable you to go to the website of the sales company involved and easily find the short video of the horse’s breeze at that sale. 

The web links for each sale are listed in the NOTES section of the new BreezeFigs Report and you will find all the information as to why we have done this and how you can benefit from this addition to the service by downloading the document which explains it all here.  Remember, no other handicapping service can give you the advantages you need from 2-year-old sales, So sign up for DRF-Plus on the front page of www.drf.com and get the BreezeFigs cards.

Our rules still hold about BreezeFigs “qualified” runners: You can get a good idea of what “qualified” BreezeFigs horses are by clicking on BreezeFigs Information underneath the two BreezeFigs links in the DRF-PLUS box in the right hand column on the www.drf.com home page and downloading files there.  Remember, keep stride length (SL) in mind when handicapping from the BreezeFigs sheet and take advantage of all the tips that we provide on those sheets as well.

If you click here you will get a document which details our latest study.  The conclusion for those who like to know the bottom line fast is this:  When it comes to 2-year-old racing only, horses that earned Group 1 or Group 2 BreezeFigs and had longer-than-average stride lengths at the five major 2-year-old sales of 2006-07-08-09 won more races, won earlier, and earned more black-type, than horses with shorter-than-average stride lengths, regardless of BreezeFigs Group.  There’s a lot more to it than that, and a review of this document, which is the first in a series, will strengthen your hand at the windows, or, if you are a buyer, at the sales or claim box.  So, download it and absorb.

Also, refer to a study we did which shows that using BreezeFigs for 3-year-old maiden races in just as viable as using them for 2-year-old maiden races.  Go to the DRF PLUS box on the www.drf.com home page, click on BreezeFigs™ Information, and then download “2006 Sales Study,” or just click right here.

If you’d like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here.

Here’s our Pix for Saturday:

Saratoga Race Course, 2nd Race, Maiden Special Weight, 1 1/16 Miles (Turf)

These are always a lot of fun, as well as potential skull crackers, but there are five BreezeFigs horses in here, three of which deserve consideration, two seriously.  Punctual Jeff was scratched from KEEAPR after posting a five-over-Par, Group 2 profile with a 24.01 foot SL, just about average for colts that day at a quarter mile. He comes from a smart outfit and earns a nod over Todd Cole who had a lower BreezeFig at the same distance the same day but is a Group 1 with a longer SL—25.11, which is a foot longer than average.  Both are worth considering strongly.  Super Saturday, Gloryland and St Moose need to step up and show that their performances at OBSAPR, FTFFEB and KEEAPR are flukes.

Del Mar Racetrack, 3rd Race, Maiden Special Weight, 5 ½ Furlongs (Synthetic)

How can you resist picking a filly by the name of Chick Flick?  She’s the only BreezeFigs horse in the sale and comes in with a one-over-Par, Group 2 profile from the tony FTFFEB sale where her 24.12 Stride length was .36 foot longer than average.  She’s on the outside, should stay out of trouble, and if we remember correctly has been entered a couple of times already without running, so pay attention to the board. Good luck!