09/23/2011 9:13AM

BreezeFigs Quick-Pix Saturday September 24th


The horse we thought would lay back and close in our Pick last week, D’smarty Cat, shot his wad in the first half mile and stopped while the one we thought would set the pace, Faneuil Wildcat, went off the choice and closed strongly to just miss while racing greenly.  That seems to sum up a week where there were near-misses all over the place on a rather light schedule, though four BreezeFigs horses did break their maidens last Saturday and several performed very well in stakes.  Today’s card is sprinkled with cross-entries and stakes races, as well as a number of confusing maiden events.  We’ve picked the most perplexing, below, for you to tackle.  Good luck!

Before we get to the business of Pix, remember the 2011 sales sheets have a major change in the NOTES section: The OBSFEB sale was eliminated and combined with OBSMAR, and that forced a re-evaluation of the CLASS EDGE for the various sales.  Pay attention because there has been an upgrade for OBSMAR and a consolidation of categories.

Also, don’t forget the change we made for the 2010 sales sheets (which is also in the 2011 sheets), in the SALE column: It’s now labeled SALE & HIP, the “HIP” referring to the catalogue number for that horse in that sale.  This reference will enable you to go to the website of the sales company involved and easily find the short video of the horse’s breeze at that sale. 

The web links for each sale are listed in the NOTES section of the new BreezeFigs Report and you will find all the information as to why we have done this and how you can benefit from this addition to the service by downloading the document which explains it all here.  Remember, no other handicapping service can give you the advantages you need from 2-year-old sales, So sign up for DRF-Plus on the front page of www.drf.com and get the BreezeFigs cards.

Our rules still hold about BreezeFigs “qualified” runners: You can get a good idea of what “qualified” BreezeFigs horses are by clicking on BreezeFigs Information underneath the two BreezeFigs links in the DRF-PLUS box in the right hand column on the www.drf.com home page and downloading files there.  Remember, keep stride length (SL) in mind when handicapping from the BreezeFigs sheet and take advantage of all the tips that we provide on those sheets as well.

If you click here you will get a document which details our latest study.  The conclusion for those who like to know the bottom line fast is this:  When it comes to 2-year-old racing only, horses that earned Group 1 or Group 2 BreezeFigs and had longer-than-average stride lengths at the five major 2-year-old sales of 2006-07-08-09 won more races, won earlier, and earned more black-type, than horses with shorter-than-average stride lengths, regardless of BreezeFigs Group.  There’s a lot more to it than that, and a review of this document, which is the first in a series, will strengthen your hand at the windows, or, if you are a buyer, at the sales or claim box.  So, download it and absorb.

Also, refer to a study we did which shows that using BreezeFigs for 3-year-old maiden races in just as viable as using them for 2-year-old maiden races.  Go to the DRF PLUS box on the www.drf.com home page, click on BreezeFigs™ Information, and then download “2006 Sales Study,” or just click right here.

If you’d like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here.

Here’s our Pick for Saturday:

Belmont Park, 2nd Race, Maiden Special Weight, 5 ½ furlongs (Dirt)

A purely impossible situation complicated by the threat of serious rain, this race attracted seven late developers, four of which are BreezeFigs graduates, two of which have started.  Let’s deal with them first.  Little Wyatt has the best overall profile, a Group 1, six-over-Par number at EASMAY where his 25.27 foot SL was 1.6 feet longer than average.  He was rank in his debut and seems to have a better shot here from the outside post, watch the board on this one.  Start the Party was bought back at OBSMAR for 47k after a decent Group 1, three-over-Par performance where his 24.53 foot SL on synthetic was more than three-quarters of a length longer than average.  He was wheeled back at EASMAY where he went an extra furlong on dirt and his 23.88 foot SL was just about average—and he was RNA’s again, this time for 37k.  He had some trouble in his debut and might be able to get a piece of this if he starts well.  Wharton is in hot hands, but his one-under-Par, Group 3 profile at KEEAPR featured a 22.71 foot SL on synthetic, and that was a foot shorter than average that day, so he’s going to need to scramble late to be in the hunt.  The most intriguing one here is Term Loan, who comes out of OBSAPR with a six-over-Par Group 1 profile that featured at 24.19 foot SL on synthetic, nearly a foot and a quarter longer than average.  We think he should be your key.  Good luck!