09/16/2011 10:29AM

BreezeFigs Quick-Pix Saturday September 17th


Maybe we ought to stick to maiden claiming races—our Pick last week, Fear the Heat—reported home promptly and, to our surprise, as the favorite at Calder, where he paid $5.00.  He was one of three BreezeFigs maidens winners at Calder that day, though one of them, Sugartime Jazz, was a distinct surprise given her BreezeFigs profile—though perhaps not so much because she was making her fourth start in at Maiden 25k (she paid $6.00).  The other winner, Seattle Ex in the 10th, fit the profile better and paid $9.00, and like Fear the Heat was making his debut.  There were 14 BreezeFigs qualified maiden winners across the country last week and today’s card is loaded with some good opportunities as well as “musts to avoid.”  We’re sticking with the claimers agai, see below.  Good luck!

Before we get to the business of Pix, remember the 2011 sales sheets have a major change in the NOTES section: The OBSFEB sale was eliminated and combined with OBSMAR, and that forced a re-evaluation of the CLASS EDGE for the various sales.  Pay attention because there has been an upgrade for OBSMAR and a consolidation of categories.

Also, don’t forget the change we made for the 2010 sales sheets (which is also in the 2011 sheets), in the SALE column: It’s now labeled SALE & HIP, the “HIP” referring to the catalogue number for that horse in that sale.  This reference will enable you to go to the website of the sales company involved and easily find the short video of the horse’s breeze at that sale. 

The web links for each sale are listed in the NOTES section of the new BreezeFigs Report and you will find all the information as to why we have done this and how you can benefit from this addition to the service by downloading the document which explains it all here.  Remember, no other handicapping service can give you the advantages you need from 2-year-old sales, So sign up for DRF-Plus on the front page of www.drf.com and get the BreezeFigs cards.

Our rules still hold about BreezeFigs “qualified” runners: You can get a good idea of what “qualified” BreezeFigs horses are by clicking on BreezeFigs Information underneath the two BreezeFigs links in the DRF-PLUS box in the right hand column on the www.drf.com home page and downloading files there.  Remember, keep stride length (SL) in mind when handicapping from the BreezeFigs sheet and take advantage of all the tips that we provide on those sheets as well.

If you click here you will get a document which details our latest study.  The conclusion for those who like to know the bottom line fast is this:  When it comes to 2-year-old racing only, horses that earned Group 1 or Group 2 BreezeFigs and had longer-than-average stride lengths at the five major 2-year-old sales of 2006-07-08-09 won more races, won earlier, and earned more black-type, than horses with shorter-than-average stride lengths, regardless of BreezeFigs Group.  There’s a lot more to it than that, and a review of this document, which is the first in a series, will strengthen your hand at the windows, or, if you are a buyer, at the sales or claim box.  So, download it and absorb.

Also, refer to a study we did which shows that using BreezeFigs for 3-year-old maiden races in just as viable as using them for 2-year-old maiden races.  Go to the DRF PLUS box on the www.drf.com home page, click on BreezeFigs™ Information, and then download “2006 Sales Study,” or just click right here.

If you’d like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here.

Here’s our Pick for Saturday:

Delaware Park, 7th Race, Maiden Claiming ($15,000), 6 furlongs (Dirt)

Going to the bottom of the heap here, but there’s a good shot you could score out on a BreezeFigs trifecta.  Both first-timer D’smarty Cat and possible favorite Faneuil Wildcat breezed an eighth of a mile on separate days at OBSAPR where they both earned almost identical Group 2 BreezeFigs profiles.  D’smarty Cat was even-Par with a 23.62 foot SL, .65 foot longer than average that day; Faneuil Wildcat, who ran fairly well at a lower level in his debut, chalked up a 23.56 foot SL, .64 longer than average on his day.  We tip the scale to D’smarty Cat who looked better doing it.  The third BreezeFigs horse, Holy Mo, is making his debut after a deceptive eight-under-Par Group 4 performance at EASMAY where his 23.75 foot SL was almost exactly the average but his time was very slow (11.2).  He may clunk up for a piece here, but the other two look faster.  Good luck!