09/09/2011 9:11AM

BreezeFigs Quick-Pix Saturday September 10th


We had some issues with our Pix last week, which boil down to the fact that except for Punctual Jeff’s monster last second surge (and failure) at the wire, we stunk out the joint.  Things happen. There were five other good BreezeFigs maiden winners on that card, though (and two others that were huge surprises given their numbers).  For the week there were18 solid BreezeFigs-qualified maiden winners across North America as well as Grade I winners Weemissfrankie (Del Mar Debutante) and Currency Swap, who led a 1-2-3 BreezeFigs finish in the Hopeful.  In addition, we both had the opportunity to present a complete BreezeFigs tutorial at the Blood-Horse’s Pedigree & Genetics Symposium for industry professionals in Lexington this week, and hope we turned a few professionals into degenerate horseplayers. Today’s card is loaded with maidens, allowances and a hot stakes race at Arlington, so settle in and take some solace in the fact that we are only sticking our neck out once in this week’s Pick, below.  Good luck!

Before we get to the business of Pix, remember the 2011 sales sheets have a major change in the NOTES section: The OBSFEB sale was eliminated and combined with OBSMAR, and that forced a re-evaluation of the CLASS EDGE for the various sales.  Pay attention because there has been an upgrade for OBSMAR and a consolidation of categories.

Also, don’t forget the change we made for the 2010 sales sheets (which is also in the 2011 sheets), in the SALE column: It’s now labeled SALE & HIP, the “HIP” referring to the catalogue number for that horse in that sale.  This reference will enable you to go to the website of the sales company involved and easily find the short video of the horse’s breeze at that sale. 

The web links for each sale are listed in the NOTES section of the new BreezeFigs Report and you will find all the information as to why we have done this and how you can benefit from this addition to the service by downloading the document which explains it all here.  Remember, no other handicapping service can give you the advantages you need from 2-year-old sales, So sign up for DRF-Plus on the front page of www.drf.com and get the BreezeFigs cards.

Our rules still hold about BreezeFigs “qualified” runners: You can get a good idea of what “qualified” BreezeFigs horses are by clicking on BreezeFigs Information underneath the two BreezeFigs links in the DRF-PLUS box in the right hand column on the www.drf.com home page and downloading files there.  Remember, keep stride length (SL) in mind when handicapping from the BreezeFigs sheet and take advantage of all the tips that we provide on those sheets as well.

If you click here you will get a document which details our latest study.  The conclusion for those who like to know the bottom line fast is this:  When it comes to 2-year-old racing only, horses that earned Group 1 or Group 2 BreezeFigs and had longer-than-average stride lengths at the five major 2-year-old sales of 2006-07-08-09 won more races, won earlier, and earned more black-type, than horses with shorter-than-average stride lengths, regardless of BreezeFigs Group.  There’s a lot more to it than that, and a review of this document, which is the first in a series, will strengthen your hand at the windows, or, if you are a buyer, at the sales or claim box.  So, download it and absorb.

Also, refer to a study we did which shows that using BreezeFigs for 3-year-old maiden races in just as viable as using them for 2-year-old maiden races.  Go to the DRF PLUS box on the www.drf.com home page, click on BreezeFigs™ Information, and then download “2006 Sales Study,” or just click right here.

If you’d like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here.

Here’s our Pick for Saturday:

Calder Race Course, 7th Race, Maiden Claiming ($40,000), 5 furlongs (Dirt)

Two BreezeFigs OBSAPR graduates make their debuts in this mid-level claimer, and Fear the Heat looks like he’s got a better shot at snatching the prize than Starship Silverado.  Fear the Heat  had a credible Group 1 profile at a quarter mile on the day he breezed, posting a four-over-Par BreezeFig that had him with a 23.39 foot stride length, about a quarter foot shorter than average that day.  The next day, Starship Silverado went an eighth with a 21.43 foot SL, more than a foot and a half shorter than average that day, and as a result came back with a three-under-Par Group 3 profile.  He might be worth a suck-up gimmick play, but Fear the Heat looks pretty solid here to key.  Good luck!