10/28/2011 9:05AM

BreezeFigs Quick-Pix Saturday October 29th


We thought the race we focused on last week was exasperating and we were proven right as one of our two top Pix, Peggy Jane, could only finish second and the other, Flea Flicker, tired to be fourth.  Of course, if you keyed them in the right positions you cashed a $122 exacta and a $9,868 superfecta—but we ain’t redboarders enough to take credit for that.  Still, it was a very good week indeed for BreezeFigs maiden winners with 16 of them across the country, only two of which really did not look playable on their poor BreeezeFigs form.  Two of those playable 14 wins came at Delaware last Saturday, with the rest coming at Belmont (2), Calder, Delta Downs, Golden Gate, Keeneland (2), Parx, Santa Anita, and Woodbine (3)—and the win payoff average was $10.72. Today’s card is rather thin and may be compromised by a potential snow storm in the east, so we are going where no snow goes, see below. Good luck!

Before we get to the business of Pix, remember the 2011 sales sheets have a major change in the NOTES section: The OBSFEB sale was eliminated and combined with OBSMAR, and that forced a re-evaluation of the CLASS EDGE for the various sales.  Pay attention because there has been an upgrade for OBSMAR and a consolidation of categories.

Also, don’t forget the change we made for the 2010 sales sheets (which is also in the 2011 sheets), in the SALE column: It’s now labeled SALE & HIP, the “HIP” referring to the catalogue number for that horse in that sale.  This reference will enable you to go to the website of the sales company involved and easily find the short video of the horse’s breeze at that sale. 

The web links for each sale are listed in the NOTES section of the new BreezeFigs Report and you will find all the information as to why we have done this and how you can benefit from this addition to the service by downloading the document which explains it all here.  Remember, no other handicapping service can give you the advantages you need from 2-year-old sales, So sign up for DRF-Plus on the front page of www.drf.com and get the BreezeFigs cards.

Our rules still hold about BreezeFigs “qualified” runners: You can get a good idea of what “qualified” BreezeFigs horses are by clicking on BreezeFigs Information underneath the two BreezeFigs links in the DRF-PLUS box in the right hand column on the www.drf.com home page and downloading files there.  Remember, keep stride length (SL) in mind when handicapping from the BreezeFigs sheet and take advantage of all the tips that we provide on those sheets as well.

If you click here you will get a document which details our latest study.  The conclusion for those who like to know the bottom line fast is this:  When it comes to 2-year-old racing only, horses that earned Group 1 or Group 2 BreezeFigs and had longer-than-average stride lengths at the five major 2-year-old sales of 2006-07-08-09 won more races, won earlier, and earned more black-type, than horses with shorter-than-average stride lengths, regardless of BreezeFigs Group.  There’s a lot more to it than that, and a review of this document, which is the first in a series, will strengthen your hand at the windows, or, if you are a buyer, at the sales or claim box.  So, download it and absorb.

Also, refer to a study we did which shows that using BreezeFigs for 3-year-old maiden races in just as viable as using them for 2-year-old maiden races.  Go to the DRF PLUS box on the www.drf.com home page, click on BreezeFigs™ Information, and then download “2006 Sales Study,” or just click right here.

If you’d like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here.

Here’s our Pick for Saturday:

Calder Race Course, 7th Race, Maiden Claiming (32k), 6 ½ Furlongs (Dirt)

Two BreezeFigs first-time starters are scheduled in this modest event, both of which breezed on the same day at OBSAPR but at different distances with completely different results.  Gun Island came up with a one-over-Par Group 2 profile that featured a 22.68 foot SL, .39 foot shorter than average for colts at an eighth of a mile that day, and he was slowing down in the last sixteenth (went 10.3).  Run Jac Run went an extra furlong and was fairly slow (23.3), and slowed down as  well with a 22.25 foot SL that was over a foot shorter than average for colts at a quarter mile that day, and resulted in a five-under-Par, Group 4 profile.  This is not a spectacular group of runners but each of them is in capable hands, and Gun Island is an obvious key here—and if you see some action on the board, you might want to give consideration to Run Jac Run for a gimmick. Good luck!