10/21/2011 11:47AM

BreezeFigs Quick-Pix Saturday October 22nd


Our Pick last week, Festive Spirit, did not seem ready for prime time, finishing fourth and not much more can be said about that.  However, there were two other maiden winners on the BreezeFigs card that day, and a total of a dozen in the week (which goes from Friday through Thursday):  Two each at Belmont, Keeneland, Monmouth and Woodbine, and solos at Calder, Hawthorne, Remington and Santa Anita.  Two of those delivered big balloons in their payoffs: First-time started Players Club, who was a one-over-Par Group 1 horse at OBSAPR, came home at Woodbine to the tune of $103.90.  Two days later at Belmont, Ready Signal, a seven-over-Par Group 1 at OBSMAR with a 25+ foot SL paid $75 in his third start but turf debut.   There are several juicy opportunities on today’s card,  and we’re going for the toughest one on Showcase Day at Belmont Park, below. Good luck!

Before we get to the business of Pix, remember the 2011 sales sheets have a major change in the NOTES section: The OBSFEB sale was eliminated and combined with OBSMAR, and that forced a re-evaluation of the CLASS EDGE for the various sales.  Pay attention because there has been an upgrade for OBSMAR and a consolidation of categories.

Also, don’t forget the change we made for the 2010 sales sheets (which is also in the 2011 sheets), in the SALE column: It’s now labeled SALE & HIP, the “HIP” referring to the catalogue number for that horse in that sale.  This reference will enable you to go to the website of the sales company involved and easily find the short video of the horse’s breeze at that sale. 

The web links for each sale are listed in the NOTES section of the new BreezeFigs Report and you will find all the information as to why we have done this and how you can benefit from this addition to the service by downloading the document which explains it all here.  Remember, no other handicapping service can give you the advantages you need from 2-year-old sales, So sign up for DRF-Plus on the front page of www.drf.com and get the BreezeFigs cards.

Our rules still hold about BreezeFigs “qualified” runners: You can get a good idea of what “qualified” BreezeFigs horses are by clicking on BreezeFigs Information underneath the two BreezeFigs links in the DRF-PLUS box in the right hand column on the www.drf.com home page and downloading files there.  Remember, keep stride length (SL) in mind when handicapping from the BreezeFigs sheet and take advantage of all the tips that we provide on those sheets as well.

If you click here you will get a document which details our latest study.  The conclusion for those who like to know the bottom line fast is this:  When it comes to 2-year-old racing only, horses that earned Group 1 or Group 2 BreezeFigs and had longer-than-average stride lengths at the five major 2-year-old sales of 2006-07-08-09 won more races, won earlier, and earned more black-type, than horses with shorter-than-average stride lengths, regardless of BreezeFigs Group.  There’s a lot more to it than that, and a review of this document, which is the first in a series, will strengthen your hand at the windows, or, if you are a buyer, at the sales or claim box.  So, download it and absorb.

Also, refer to a study we did which shows that using BreezeFigs for 3-year-old maiden races in just as viable as using them for 2-year-old maiden races.  Go to the DRF PLUS box on the www.drf.com home page, click on BreezeFigs™ Information, and then download “2006 Sales Study,” or just click right here.

If you’d like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here.

Here’s our Pick for Saturday:

Belmont Park, 3rd Race, Maiden Special Weight (New York-Breds), 6 Furlongs (Dirt)

There are five BreezeFigs fillies lined up for this one, four of them out of OBSAPR. Three of them are making their first starts, but the other two likely to take most of the money.  The logical favorite is Flea Flicker, who comes into this race off two good races that showed her seven-over-Par Group 2 profile at OBSAPR was legit, and her nearly 25-foot SL should continue to be a tough thing for others to overcome.  Similarly, Bird House had a wide trip in her debut and utilized her 25-foot-plus SL to close well enough in the mud to validate her Group 2, six-over-Par profile at OBSAPR where she was not sold (RNA’d) at 19k.  But the one from that sale that may make a difference is Peggy Jane, a 200k buy at OBSAPR making her debut with a very similar profile to Flea Flicker.  They breezed on the same day, Peggy Jane came home as a seven-over-Par Group 1 filly with a nearly 25-foot SL, so they are essentially the same horse, only one has more experience.  Another first-timer from that sale, Miss Libby, had a solid Group 2, three-over-Par profile but checked in with a 23.68 foot SL, which was .88 longer than average for the day she breezed a quarter mile; shorter SL but perhaps more efficient equals dangerous.  The other one here, Thirty Minutes, comes out of the slightly higher level OBSMAR sale with a Group 3, one-under-Par profile which is quite competitive here.  Her 23.28 foot SL on the same track as the others breezed a month later was just about average that day, and she has canny connections to cause some trouble.  The play here looks to be Flea Flicker as your key, with Peggy Jane right behind or above, and all the others where you want them to be, or think they will finish.  Exasperating, but challenging, nonetheless.  Good luck!