10/19/2012 9:09AM

BreezeFigs Quick-Pix Saturday October 20th, 2012


The way the race unfolded into the stretch it looked like our Pick last week, Channel of Gold, was going to make us look good, but then she lost her momentum and maybe a bit of her action and faded as the favorite, and sister BreezeFigs horse, Tie Dye, came home on top.  She’s actually an interesting case study because her very low stride length on the dirt at EASMAY probably indicated that she had to go to the weeds or synthetic, where many horses like that are competitive.  In any case, there were a total of five maiden winners on the BreezeFigs card that day, and one stakes winner.  For the week, 17 BreezeFigs horses broke their maidens at 11 tracks, including two recent Quick-Pix in their second starts: Winning Cause on Thursday at Keeenland, and Almost English, who beat a co-Pick from that day (and favorite), Michael With Us, in a $25 exacta at Parx on Sunday.  (So remember Channel of Gold next time out). In addition, there was a $133 cold BreezeFigs exacta at Remington on Wednesday, with Backstreet Hero beating out longshot Donald Gene in a battle of Group 2 colts.  Lesson here is to take our Pix into consideration, but follow BreezeFigs consistently and you will find solid plays and sometimes bargains, galore.  Today’s card is loaded with opportunities, but we’re focusing on one that comes early in the day, see below.  Good luck!

Before we get to the business of Pix, remember the 2011 and now 2012 sales sheets have major changes in the NOTES section: For 2011, the OBSFEB sale was eliminated and combined with OBSMAR, and for 2012, the FTFFEB sale was moved to March, so it is now known as FTFMAR. Both of these changes forced a re-evaluation of the CLASS EDGE for the various sales.  Pay attention because there has been an upgrade for OBSMAR and a consolidation of categories.

Also, don’t forget the change we made for the 2010 sales sheets (which is also in the 2011 and 2012 sheets), in the SALE column: It’s now labeled SALE & HIP, the “HIP” referring to the catalogue number for that horse in that sale.  This reference will enable you to go to the website of the sales company involved and easily find the short video of the horse’s breeze at that sale. 

The web links for each sale are listed in the NOTES section of the new BreezeFigs Report and you will find all the information as to why we have done this and how you can benefit from this addition to the service by downloading the document which explains it all here.  Remember, no other handicapping service can give you the advantages you need from 2-year-old sales, So sign up for DRF-Plus on the front page of www.drf.com and get the BreezeFigs cards.

Our rules still hold about BreezeFigs “qualified” runners: You can get a good idea of what “qualified” BreezeFigs horses are by clicking on BreezeFigs Information underneath the two BreezeFigs links in the DRF-PLUS box in the right hand column on the www.drf.com home page and downloading files there.  Remember, keep stride length (SL) in mind when handicapping from the BreezeFigs sheet and take advantage of all the tips that we provide on those sheets as well.

If you click here you will get a document which details our latest study.  The conclusion for those who like to know the bottom line fast is this:  When it comes to 2-year-old racing only, horses that earned Group 1 or Group 2 BreezeFigs and had longer-than-average stride lengths at the five major 2-year-old sales of 2006-07-08-09 won more races, won earlier, and earned more black-type, than horses with shorter-than-average stride lengths, regardless of BreezeFigs Group.  There’s a lot more to it than that, and a review of this document, which is the first in a series, will strengthen your hand at the windows, or, if you are a buyer, at the sales or claim box.  So, download it and absorb.

Also, refer to a study we did which shows that using BreezeFigs for 3-year-old maiden races in just as viable as using them for 2-year-old maiden races.  Go to the DRF PLUS box on the www.drf.com home page, click on BreezeFigs™ Information, and then download “2006 Sales Study,” or just click right here.

If you’d like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here.

Here’s one to consider today:

Belmont Park, 1st Race, Maiden Special Weight  (New York-Breds), 6 Furlongs (Dirt)

It’s New York Showcase Day at Belmont where state-breds have their turn in the sun (or, maybe clouds, depending on the weather).  The day kicks off with as contentious a maiden race as you’d like to see from a BreezeFigs point of view.  Three fillies, from different sales, one Group 1, one Group 2, and one solid Group 3, all with longer-than-average SLs, and good connections.  Nonnie Connie, the Group 2 filly, has made one start and it was good enough to make her the morning line favorite here, which she justifies with a four-over-Par profile and 24.21 foot SL that was 1.5 feet longer than average at OBSAPR.  However, on the rail is Lisalisalee who earned second-best Group 1 honors at a quarter mile at EASMAY with a six-over-Par profile and 23.97 foot SL, about a third of a foot longer than average. Then there’s Graceful Meghan, whose one-under-Par Group 3 profile at OBSMAR makes her very competitive here and her 23.23 foot SL was just above average that day.  This looks like a perfect place for Nonnie Connie to break her maiden, but it also looks like a very good shot for the other two to complete the trifecta either way with her.  Good luck!