10/17/2013 11:00PM

BreezeFigs Quick-Pix for Saturday, October 19 by Bob Fierro and Jay Kilgore


Last week’s Pick is better left buried—neither horse showed any interest in being all that competitive, so we move on.  Ironically, on the same Keeneland card, Miss Arrangement, an FTFMAR Group 2 first-timer, came through in the only other 2-year-old race, and as the only BreezeFigs horse, to score a $15 upset in the third race.  She was one of 18 BreezeFigs horses that broke their maidens last week (another one took a stakes), and the rewards were spread around the country: two each at Belmont (one exacta), Gulfstream, Keeneland, Laurel, Santa Anita, and Suffolk, while Delta Downs, Finger Lakes, Golden Gate, Meadowlands (exacta), Parx and Remington all had solos. Today’s card is loaded with plenty of opportunities, but we found an obvious one to spotlight, see below. Good luck!
Remember to pay attention to two changes we’ve made over the past several years.  First, there have been changes in the CLASS EDGE category (at the bottom of the BreezeFigs card) because one sale was eliminated (OBSFEB) and FTFFEB is now in March (FTFMAR), and that moved OBSMAR into a higher class.  Also, in the SALE & HIP column: the “HIP” refers to the catalogue number for that horse in that sale. This reference will enable you to go to the website of the sales company involved and easily find the short video of the horse’s breeze at that sale.

The web links for each sale are listed in the NOTES section of the new BreezeFigs Report and you will find all the information as to why we have done this and how you can benefit from this addition to the service by downloading the document which explains it all here: http://www1.drf.com/BreezeFigs/Video_Links_BreezeFigs_for_2009_Sales.pdf. Remember, no other handicapping service can give you the advantages you need from 2-year-old sales, So sign up for DRF-Plus on the front page of www.drf.com and get the BreezeFigs cards.

Our rules still hold about BreezeFigs “qualified” runners: You can get a good idea of what “qualified” BreezeFigs horses are by clicking on BreezeFigs Information underneath the two BreezeFigs links in the DRF-PLUS box in the right hand column on the www.drf.com home page and downloading files there. Remember, keep stride length (SL) in mind when handicapping from the BreezeFigs sheet and take advantage of all the tips that we provide on those sheets as well.

If you click here http://www1.drf.com/BreezeFigs/BreezeFigs_&_Stride_Length_Study_Part_I.pdf you will get a document which details our latest study. The conclusion for those who like to know the bottom line fast is this: When it comes to 2-year-old racing only, horses that earned Group 1 or Group 2 BreezeFigs and had longer-than-average stride lengths at the five major 2-year-old sales of 2006-07-08-09 won more races, won earlier, and earned more black-type, than horses with shorter-than-average stride lengths, regardless of BreezeFigs Group. There’s a lot more to it than that, and a review of this document, which is the first in a series, will strengthen your hand at the windows, or, if you are a buyer, at the sales or claim box. So, download it and absorb.

Also, refer to a study we did which shows that using BreezeFigs for 3-year-old maiden races in just as viable as using them for 2-year-old maiden races. Go to the DRF PLUS box on the www.drf.com home page, click on BreezeFigsInformation, and then download “2006 Sales Study,” or just click right here: http://www1.drf.com/breezefigs/breezefigs_010507.doc.

If you’d like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here: www.biodatatrack.com.

Here’s Saturday’s Pick:
Gulfstream Park, 4th Race, Maiden Special Weight, Mile (Dirt)
This is a head-scratcher for one reason: The obvious choice, Fidelity, is being rolled out here for her debut when her profile suggests that she might be one that would do just as well at Belmont, Keeneland or Santa Anita, where the purses are bigger.  That’s because she was a stunning 10-over-Par Group 1 at FTFMAR this year with a whopping 26.69 foot stride length which was 2.77 feet longer than average for fillies that day.  And she fetched $1.1 million in the ring from a very smart group.  She’s 5-to-2 in the morning line and does not seem to be in very tough.  Two other BreezeFigs fillies are in here—Stately Defense, whose even-Par Group 2 profile at OBSAPR featured a 22.94 foot SL, about a third of a foot longer than average that day; she might be worth a gimmick play based on her not-too-bad debut.  Ultra Violet, on the other hand, has already shown in two starts that her Group 4 profile at the same sale was pretty much justified.  She is not likely to pay much, but if she’s in one piece and of sound mind, Fidelity ought to do just fine. Good luck!