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BreezeFigs Quick-Pix Saturday October 13th, 2012
By Bob Fierro
Sometimes you just have to go with the flow, as when a 60-to-1 shot completely swallows your Pix selections as happened last week at Hoosier Park. Scratch the head and move on. There were a dozen BreezeFigs horses that broke their maidens last week, five of which topped BreezeFigs gimmicks: Five winners at Calder (two exactas and one trifecta); two at Belmont (one exacta); two at Keeneland on Thursday (one exacta); and three at Santa Anita. In addition, if you keep good records, or if you just look at the cards, you might have has four BreezeFigs gimmicks in major stakes races: an Exacta in the Grade 1 Alcibiades at Keeneland; a trifecta in the Grade 3 Grey at Woodbine; and exactas in a listed stake at both Keeneland and Santa Anita, with another stake at the latter track resulting in a 1-3 BreezeFigs finish. Today, we have found a race that we think is going to highlight future stakes horses, see below. Good luck!
Before we get to the business of Pix, remember the 2011 and now 2012 sales sheets have major changes in the NOTES section: For 2011, the OBSFEB sale was eliminated and combined with OBSMAR, and for 2012, the FTFFEB sale was moved to March, so it is now known as FTFMAR. Both of these changes forced a re-evaluation of the CLASS EDGE for the various sales. Pay attention because there has been an upgrade for OBSMAR and a consolidation of categories.
Also, don't forget the change we made for the 2010 sales sheets (which is also in the 2011 and 2012 sheets), in the SALE column: It's now labeled SALE & HIP, the "HIP" referring to the catalogue number for that horse in that sale. This reference will enable you to go to the website of the sales company involved and easily find the short video of the horse's breeze at that sale.
The web links for each sale are listed in the NOTES section of the new BreezeFigs Report and you will find all the information as to why we have done this and how you can benefit from this addition to the service by downloading the document which explains it all here. Remember, no other handicapping service can give you the advantages you need from 2-year-old sales, So sign up for DRF-Plus on the front page of www.drf.com and get the BreezeFigs cards.
Our rules still hold about BreezeFigs "qualified" runners: You can get a good idea of what "qualified" BreezeFigs horses are by clicking on BreezeFigs Information underneath the two BreezeFigs links in the DRF-PLUS box in the right hand column on the www.drf.com home page and downloading files there. Remember, keep stride length (SL) in mind when handicapping from the BreezeFigs sheet and take advantage of all the tips that we provide on those sheets as well.
If you click here you will get a document which details our latest study. The conclusion for those who like to know the bottom line fast is this: When it comes to 2-year-old racing only, horses that earned Group 1 or Group 2 BreezeFigs and had longer-than-average stride lengths at the five major 2-year-old sales of 2006-07-08-09 won more races, won earlier, and earned more black-type, than horses with shorter-than-average stride lengths, regardless of BreezeFigs Group. There's a lot more to it than that, and a review of this document, which is the first in a series, will strengthen your hand at the windows, or, if you are a buyer, at the sales or claim box. So, download it and absorb.
Also, refer to a study we did which shows that using BreezeFigs for 3-year-old maiden races in just as viable as using them for 2-year-old maiden races. Go to the DRF PLUS box on the www.drf.com home page, click on BreezeFigs™ Information, and then download "2006 Sales Study," or just click right here.
If you'd like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here.
Here's one to consider today:
Belmont Park, 8th Race, Maiden Special Weight, 7 Furlongs (Turf)
There are four BreezeFigs fillies in here, all of which have a "story" to tell that is not necessarily apparent on the PP's or even on our card—starting with the fact that only one appears as having been sold at a sale on the PP's, Tie Dye. She has started twice since being sold for 110k at EASMAY where her Group 3, three-under-Par profile was hampered by a poor 21.52 foot SL, more than 1.75 feet below average for the day. That was on the dirt, however, and her only two starts have been on the weeds where she was a good second last out and she's favored, so take her into consideration. Bricks and Clicks was a 70k RNA (not sold) at OBSMAR where she had a solid five-over-Par, Group 2 profile that featured a 22.52 foot SL on synthetic, about three-quarters of a length below average that day. She did OK in her lone start, on the weeds in a fast race, so she needs to be considered as well. Then there's Switchboard, who was sold for 160k as a yearling, then put in a one-under-Par Group 3 performance at FTFMAR with a 21.68 foot SL, on dirt,1.34 feet below average—and never went through the ring (SCR). She resurfaced at EASMAY where she improved her SL to 22.93, also on dirt, but was still about a third of a foot shorter than average—and she was scratched again after breezing. Now she's running in the name of her trainer's wife, which is a head-scratcher, and you should watch the board. And then we have Channel of Gold, a regally bred filly who was sold for only 100k as a yearling and then threw in a very impressive two-over-Par Group 2 performance at FTFMAR where her 24.28 foot SL on the dirt was 1.26 feet longer than average—and she was scratched after that. Now she appears with the consignors as the owners, and has one of the craftiest turf trainers as well. We're going to key her and Bricks and Clicks, and maybe throw in Tie Dye as a saver. As always, watch the board on this one, and good luck!
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