11/28/2008 12:00AM

BreezeFigs Quick-Pix, Saturday, November 29th


Didn’t knock it out of the park last week, but our Pix choices ran creditably (Captain Kali was second, Oscar Bound fourth) and look good to tab back next time. Meanwhile, this Saturday’s card is overflowing with 2-year-old races, including every race on Churchill’s closing day card. But we like something more difficult to deal with, so take a look at our Pix below, then sign up for DRF-Plus and get the card on the front page of .

Remember, there’s a new look to our sheets for the sales of 2008—we have added SURFACE as a new category to tell you whether the horse breezed on a dirt (D) or synthetic (S) track. There are four (S) sales this year—OBSFEB, OBSMAR, OBSAPR and KEEAPR; and three D sales—FTFFEB, BARMAR and EASMAY. Just to add some more insight to your handicapping.

Also, our rules still hold about BreezeFigs “qualified” runners: You can get a good idea of what “qualified” BreezeFigs horses are by clicking on BreezeFigs Information underneath the two BreezeFigs links in the DRF-PLUS box in the right hand column on the home page and downloading files there. Remember, keep stride length (SL) in mind when handicapping from the BreezeFigs sheet and take advantage of all the tips that we provide on those sheets as well.

Also, refer to a study we did which shows that using BreezeFigs for 3-year-old maiden races in just as viable as using them for 2-year-old maiden races. .

If you'd like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website, .

Here’s one that will cause you to tear your hair out. Good luck!

Aqueduct, , Maiden Special Weight, 6 ½ Furlongs (Dirt)

This race has seven—count’em, seven—BreezeFigs horses ready to line up, four of which are firsters with credentials to come home on top. But the intrigue here is that six of the seven are all Group 1 or 2 horses, and only one of those had a BreezeFigs profile with a shorter-than-average SL. So, this will definitely drive you nuts. As for the ones with experience, we touted Diplomatic Code, an RNA at OBSMAR and Copper Cascade (an FTFFEB graduate with the shorter-than-average SL) in their last start, and they did pretty well, running 2-3 to a goodie. Dubinsky, an EASMAY graduate, came out swinging in his debut and will also be tough back in here. All three will get a lot of very deserved attention at the windows. We think firster Bindle Stick won’t make it in from the AE’s, but if he does his 10-under-Par profile at OBSAPR does not point him out here (you could look it up). That leaves the other three firsters, all of whom have stories. Brickyard turned in a good, even-Par performance at KEEAPR based on the strength of a 25.8 foot SL—more than 1.6 feet longer than average for the colts at the 1/8 mile distance, on synthetic, at that sale. He’s by the right sire and has the right connections, so he will be very tough here. Toulouse Lautrec, who threw in a two-over-Par profile on synthetic at OBSMAR, showed a smart 24.8 foot SL in his work, which was 1.25 feet longer than average. Then there’s Oak Bar, the mystery horse. He had a solid one-over-Par Group 1 profile at FTFFEB with a 24.37 foot SL, more than half-foot longer than average for 1/8 mile, and on dirt. But he was not sold (RNA) at 170k, and was wheeled back at EASMAY at ¼ mile where he got a two-over-Par Group 2 profile with a bit longer SL (24.99), which was 1.45 feet above average, and also on dirt. But he was sold there for 80k, less than half of his FTFFEB RNA. Go figure—which is something we have tried to do and think that if a firster is going to break up the game of the experienced horses here, it’s likely to be Brickyard or Toulouse Lautrec, who are very good gimmick plays at the very least with any or all of the ones that have started. (And you thought hedge funds were out of fashion).