11/25/2011 2:06PM

BreezeFigs Quick-Pix Saturday November 26th


Looks like Scotty failed to heed our wishes and did not beam us up last week as both Starships failed to hit any kind of turbo gear—though Starship Valentine may have been compromised in that the race came off the turf.  No matter, we blew it.  However, during the week there were 15 maiden winners on the BreezeFigs cards, including a dozen that were eminently playable.  Half a dozen of those were making either their first or second starts, so even this late in the season, it pays to pay attention to these horses when they show up on the card.  In that spirit and in keeping with the Thanksgiving bounty, we are taking a slightly different approach with a virtual cornucopia of Pix, see below.  Good luck!

Before we get to the business of Pix, remember the 2011 sales sheets have a major change in the NOTES section: The OBSFEB sale was eliminated and combined with OBSMAR, and that forced a re-evaluation of the CLASS EDGE for the various sales.  Pay attention because there has been an upgrade for OBSMAR and a consolidation of categories.

Also, don’t forget the change we made for the 2010 sales sheets (which is also in the 2011 sheets), in the SALE column: It’s now labeled SALE & HIP, the “HIP” referring to the catalogue number for that horse in that sale.  This reference will enable you to go to the website of the sales company involved and easily find the short video of the horse’s breeze at that sale. 

The web links for each sale are listed in the NOTES section of the new BreezeFigs Report and you will find all the information as to why we have done this and how you can benefit from this addition to the service by downloading the document which explains it all here.  Remember, no other handicapping service can give you the advantages you need from 2-year-old sales, So sign up for DRF-Plus on the front page of www.drf.com and get the BreezeFigs cards.

Our rules still hold about BreezeFigs “qualified” runners: You can get a good idea of what “qualified” BreezeFigs horses are by clicking on BreezeFigs Information underneath the twoBreezeFigs links in the DRF-PLUS box in the right hand column on the www.drf.com home page and downloading files there.  Remember, keep stride length (SL) in mind when handicapping from the BreezeFigs sheet and take advantage of all the tips that we provide on those sheets as well.

If you click here you will get a document which details our latest study.  The conclusion for those who like to know the bottom line fast is this:  When it comes to 2-year-old racing only, horses that earned Group 1 or Group 2 BreezeFigs and had longer-than-average stride lengths at the five major 2-year-old sales of 2006-07-08-09 won more races, won earlier, and earned more black-type, than horses with shorter-than-average stride lengths, regardless of BreezeFigs Group.  There’s a lot more to it than that, and a review of this document, which is the first in a series, will strengthen your hand at the windows, or, if you are a buyer, at the sales or claim box.  So, download it and absorb.

Also, refer to a study we did which shows that using BreezeFigs for 3-year-old maiden races in just as viable as using them for 2-year-old maiden races.  Go to the DRF PLUS box on the www.drf.com home page, click on BreezeFigs™ Information, and then download “2006 Sales Study,” or just click right here.

If you’d like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here.

Here’s our Pix for Saturday:

Churchill Downs has carded one of its all-babies cards today, 12 races, all for 2-year-olds, mostly maidens, a couple of allowances and two Graded stakes.  We think there are some intriguing plays in the maiden races, mostly to use in your gimmicks.  Very briefly:

Churchill Downs, 1st Race, Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs (Dirt)

Devoted Wildcat is getting better and has shown that his Group 4, though just one-under-Par, profile at OBSMAR may be OK here. Risky Recovery chased and tired in his debut but if held off the pace might be able to utilize his nice 24.24 foot SL to compensate for this two-under-Par Group 3 profile at OBSAPR.  But pay close attention to Group 1 first-timers Captain Crash and Harvard.  The former was one-over-Par at OBSAPR and the latter three-over-Par at EASMAY, and both had identical BreezeFigs for an eighth, with virtually identical stride lengths, but Captain Crash’s (23.58) was longer than average on synthetic and Harvard (23.64) a tad under on dirt.  Not a bad betting race.

Churchill Downs, 3rd Race, Maiden Special Weight, 1 1/16 Miles (Dirt)

Untethered (Group 1, three-over-Par OBSAPR) and Good New Shoes (Group 2, three-over-Par, same sale, but almost a foot longer SL) have had their chances but with clean trips look like tough customers.  Charlie in Charge is intriguing because he was a total disaster at OBSMAR (10-under-Par, Group 4), and was listed as sold for 13k.  However, he came back two months later at EASMAY where his SL improved by more than two feet on the dirt and he shot up to a Group 1 seven-over-Par star and went to another buyer for 300k.  This is bizarre, and his first start was completely inconclusive, but he has the connections, pay attention.  Tizrocknroll is on the AE list but if he draws in could be a factor based on his one-under-Par profile at OBSAPR where his SL was a foot longer than average.  But the one to watch on the board is Tap’n My Toes, who posted a 10-over-Par, Group 1 profile at OBSAPR with a 24.92 foot SL that was a foot-and-a-half longer than average, but was not sold (RNA) at 50k.  He’s in D. Wayne’s hands, over to you.

Churchill Downs, 5thRace, Maiden Special Weight, 6 ½ Furlongs (Dirt)

Enthalpy posted an even-Par Group 2 profile at KEEAPR where she showed a phenomenal 26.59 foot SL, more than three feet longer than average for fillies that day at one-eighth—and one of the longest anywhere this year.  She’s got to be a moose, but figure out how to use her and you might be rewarded.

Churchill Downs, 12thRace, Maiden Special Weight, 7 Furlongs (Dirt)

Vindication Now posted a four-under-Par, Group 4 profile at EASMAY where his SL of 24.00 feet was a bit longer than average, but he was slow.  On the other hand, Tiz Yankee posted a two-over-Par, Group 2 profile at FTFFEB, a much tonier sale, but he had a 23.04 foot SL, a foot below average—but was scratched before the sale started.  There must have been an “ouchy” reason for the short SL, and this is the kind of horse, with the connections, you might want to pounce upon.  Good luck!