11/18/2011 10:33AM

BreezeFigs Quick-Pix Saturday November 19th


If you watched our Quick-Pix race at Hollywood last week, you know what happened—first, they took it off the turf, which dinged the reason we picked the race.  Carol’s Legacy broke exceptionally fast but ducked to the rail early, and still looked like he would win by 10 while our Pick, Shy Humor, struggled to catch up.  Then at the eighth pole, the leader shied again and hit the rail, tossing his rider, and in the end, our Pick completed the exacta.  Not exactly a good scenario all around to cash a ticket, but man and beast are reportedly OK.  For the rest of the week, there were 18 maiden winners who were on the BreezeFigs cards, some of them not exactly “qualified” to bet, but the two longest prices certainly were.  On Saturday, one-under-Par No Your Boundaries came off two miserable starts where he showed no speed but a new trainer must have honed his gate work because he shot to the lead and posted a $98 payoff in a bottom maiden claimer at Parx.   At the same track on Wednesday, Happy High justified a Group 1 rating in a debut performance in another bottom claimer and paid $62.  Point is:  Look at the conditions of the race and the level of the racetrack and then see if the BreezeFigs profile could work in that field. Today as a special Thanksgiving treat we are giving you two chances to make some bucks with an opportunity we simply can’t refuse to pass by—and “Trekkies” out there should pay special attention because even though we don’t qualify as such, this one’s for you.  Meanwhile, have a happy Thanksgiving, and here’s hoping the only turkey you think will be good is the one with gravy.  Good luck!

Before we get to the business of Pix, remember the 2011 sales sheets have a major change in the NOTES section: The OBSFEB sale was eliminated and combined with OBSMAR, and that forced a re-evaluation of the CLASS EDGE for the various sales.  Pay attention because there has been an upgrade for OBSMAR and a consolidation of categories.

Also, don’t forget the change we made for the 2010 sales sheets (which is also in the 2011 sheets), in the SALE column: It’s now labeled SALE & HIP, the “HIP” referring to the catalogue number for that horse in that sale.  This reference will enable you to go to the website of the sales company involved and easily find the short video of the horse’s breeze at that sale. 

The web links for each sale are listed in the NOTES section of the new BreezeFigs Report and you will find all the information as to why we have done this and how you can benefit from this addition to the service by downloading the document which explains it all here.  Remember, no other handicapping service can give you the advantages you need from 2-year-old sales, So sign up for DRF-Plus on the front page of www.drf.com and get the BreezeFigs cards.

Our rules still hold about BreezeFigs “qualified” runners: You can get a good idea of what “qualified” BreezeFigs horses are by clicking on BreezeFigs Information underneath the two BreezeFigs links in the DRF-PLUS box in the right hand column on the www.drf.com home page and downloading files there.  Remember, keep stride length (SL) in mind when handicapping from the BreezeFigs sheet and take advantage of all the tips that we provide on those sheets as well.

If you click here you will get a document which details our latest study.  The conclusion for those who like to know the bottom line fast is this:  When it comes to 2-year-old racing only, horses that earned Group 1 or Group 2 BreezeFigs and had longer-than-average stride lengths at the five major 2-year-old sales of 2006-07-08-09 won more races, won earlier, and earned more black-type, than horses with shorter-than-average stride lengths, regardless of BreezeFigs Group.  There’s a lot more to it than that, and a review of this document, which is the first in a series, will strengthen your hand at the windows, or, if you are a buyer, at the sales or claim box.  So, download it and absorb.

Also, refer to a study we did which shows that using BreezeFigs for 3-year-old maiden races in just as viable as using them for 2-year-old maiden races.  Go to the DRF PLUS box on the www.drf.com home page, click on BreezeFigs™ Information, and then download “2006 Sales Study,” or just click right here.

If you’d like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here.

Here’s our Pix for Saturday:

Calder Race Course, 9th Race, Maiden Claiming (32k), 6 Furlongs (Dirt)

There’s an outfit at Calder named Starship Stables which runs a lot of horses that they’ve purchased at 2-year-old sales—we really don’t know anything about them except that all their horses are named Starship “something.”  Some of them are pretty cheap, and some of them outperform their prospects, but most of the time their races are not on Saturday, or if they are, we have other races to focus upon.  Today is different—we have a potential “Starship Parlay” with two first-timers starting with this race and rolling over to the 11th.  In this one, Starship Pleasant looks OK with a four-over-Par Group 1 profile at BARMAR where she posted a 24.90 foot SL, almost a foot longer than average for fillies that day.  Why is she in here for a tag in her debut?  Well, at that pricey sale she only brought $15k as a final price, so you know something was not that right.  She hasn’t got much to beat here, which includes Royal Love, another first-timer who comes out of OBSAPR with a four-under-Par Group 4 performance and a 21.82 foot SL, almost a foot shorter than average.  Our Pick has the rail, which can be a problem, but she might do.

Calder Race Course, 11th Race, Maiden Claiming (40k), 7 ½ Furlongs (Turf)

This race is a different kettle of fish, 7½ furlongs around two turns on the turf which is an invitation to chaos.  Starship Valentine makes her debut here as a 24k RNA at OBSAPR where she posted an even-Par, Group 2 effort with a 22.22 foot SL into the wind.  She’s by the right sire for the turf and could pop over with any kind of luck here.  She has two BreezeFigs companions here: Rock On Baby, whose three-under-Par Group 3 rating at OBSAPR may not be all that bad but her first two races, both off-the-turfers, were awful; Quality Sarava was six-under-Par at the same sale and has done worse in two sprints so far.  Let’s hope the “ships” come in.  Good luck!