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BreezeFigs Quick-Pix for Saturday November 17th, 2012
Rodeo Drive is in Hollywood so it did not surprise us that our Pick last week got caught up in a bit of a rodeo at Hollywood Park. Off slowly, squeezed back, nowhere to go, Syndicated stunk out the joint—and only one of our back-ups, Will True Up, hit the board. Bah! Still, there were three BreezeFigs maiden winners on a very short card that day—all first-time starters—as well as two stakes winners. Another seven BreezeFigs horses broke their maidens during the week and of the 10, eight were very logical plays at the tracks where they ran and the company they kept: Aqueduct (2), Calder, Churchill, Delta Downs, Golden Gate, Hollywood and Laurel, while another at Calder and one at Penn National were a bit of a stretch (which is a phrase that can sometimes describe our selections). This week, we return to the scene of our last crime to see if we can make amends, see below. Good luck!
Before we get to the business of Pix, remember the 2011 and now 2012 sales sheets have major changes in the NOTES section: For 2011, the OBSFEB sale was eliminated and combined with OBSMAR, and for 2012, the FTFFEB sale was moved to March, so it is now known as FTFMAR. Both of these changes forced a re-evaluation of the CLASS EDGE for the various sales. Pay attention because there has been an upgrade for OBSMAR and a consolidation of categories.
Also, don’t forget the change we made for the 2010 sales sheets (which is also in the 2011 and 2012 sheets), in the SALE column: It’s now labeled SALE & HIP, the “HIP” referring to the catalogue number for that horse in that sale. This reference will enable you to go to the website of the sales company involved and easily find the short video of the horse’s breeze at that sale.
The web links for each sale are listed in the NOTES section of the new BreezeFigs Report and you will find all the information as to why we have done this and how you can benefit from this addition to the service by downloading the document which explains it all here: http://www1.drf.com/BreezeFigs/Video_Links_BreezeFigs_for_2009_Sales.pdf. Remember, no other handicapping service can give you the advantages you need from 2-year-old sales, So sign up for DRF-Plus on the front page of www.drf.com and get the BreezeFigs cards.
Our rules still hold about BreezeFigs “qualified” runners: You can get a good idea of what “qualified” BreezeFigs horses are by clicking on BreezeFigs Information underneath the two BreezeFigs links in the DRF-PLUS box in the right hand column on the www.drf.com home page and downloading files there. Remember, keep stride length (SL) in mind when handicapping from the BreezeFigs sheet and take advantage of all the tips that we provide on those sheets as well.
If you click here http://www1.drf.com/BreezeFigs/BreezeFigs_&_Stride_Length_Study_Part_I.pdf
you will get a document which details our latest study. The conclusion for those who like to know the bottom line fast is this: When it comes to 2-year-old racing only, horses that earned Group 1 or Group 2 BreezeFigs and had longer-than-average stride lengths at the five major 2-year-old sales of 2006-07-08-09 won more races, won earlier, and earned more black-type, than horses with shorter-than-average stride lengths, regardless of BreezeFigs Group. There’s a lot more to it than that, and a review of this document, which is the first in a series, will strengthen your hand at the windows, or, if you are a buyer, at the sales or claim box. So, download it and absorb.
Also, refer to a study we did which shows that using BreezeFigs for 3-year-old maiden races in just as viable as using them for 2-year-old maiden races. Go to the DRF PLUS box on the www.drf.com home page, click on BreezeFigs™ Information, and then download “2006 Sales Study,” or just click right here: http://www1.drf.com/breezefigs/breezefigs_010507.doc.
If you’d like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here: www.biodatatrack.com.
Here’s today’s Pick:
BetFair Hollywood Park, 7th Race, Maiden Special Weight, 6 ½ Furlongs (Synthetic)
This is a very tough race all around to figure with four BreezeFigs fillies lining up, two of which are first timers, Small Moves and Sweet Sense. The former gets the nod between those two based on her five-over-Par Group 1 performance at BARMAR where her 25.82 foot SL was almost 1.5 feet longer than average. Sweet Sense was an even-Par Group 2 performer at EASMAY where her 23.49 foot SL was just .20 of a foot above average that day. Both of them breezed on dirt, so let’s see how they can handle the synthetic. Lady Rosamond cost 260k after her one-over-Par Group 1 profile at OBSAPR where her 22.55 foot SL was more than three-quarters of a foot below average; still, she ran well in her debut on the dirt at Santa Anita and now gets back to synthetic. French Curls had a poor six-under-Par Group 3 profile at BARMAR on the dirt where her 22.33 foot SL was more than two feet below average that day. She ran well to be second in a bottom maiden claimer at Santa Anita in her debut, but it is tough to make a case for her. Looks like key horses here are Small Moves and Lady Rosamond. Good luck!
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