11/11/2011 11:27AM

BreezeFigs Quick-Pix Saturday November 12th


Pretty decent week for BreezeFigs horses, though we still can’t figure out how Stephanie’s Kitten went from such a poor BreezeFigs prospect at the sales to Breeders’ Cup winner.  But stuff happens, and at least winner Secret Circle and placed horses Union Rags, Stopshoppingmaria and Weemissfrankie vindicated us.  Our Pick last week was close but no total cigar: One of our gimmick plays, Hodge, won and paid a very generous $16.60, and the other three finished 3-4-5 (the 5 being our other gimmick play Boat Trip).  On Sunday, all three stakes for 2-year-olds at Aqueduct were swept by BreezeFigs horses: Il Vilano ($8.60), Summer Front ($8.20) and Managed Account ($15.80).  Later in the week, two of our previous Pix did us proud on the same day.  Festive Spirit paid an astounding $19.60 in a 1-2-3-4 finish for BreezeFigs maidens at Aqueduct, kicking off a $43 exacta with Invocation and $143 trifecta with Raconteur (no superfecta, booooooo!).  A little later at Churchill, Hierro came homeat a paltry $3.60, but he kicked off a $33 exacta with Sir Bond and a $121 trifecta with Superstructure (who might have been unplayable except on the bottom).  Today we are doing something a little out of line for us—there are no first time starters on the BreezeFigs card that we like, so we’re going with an second time starter in our Pick, below.  Good luck!

Before we get to the business of Pix, remember the 2011 sales sheets have a major change in the NOTES section: The OBSFEB sale was eliminated and combined with OBSMAR, and that forced a re-evaluation of the CLASS EDGE for the various sales.  Pay attention because there has been an upgrade for OBSMAR and a consolidation of categories.

Also, don’t forget the change we made for the 2010 sales sheets (which is also in the 2011 sheets), in the SALE column: It’s now labeled SALE & HIP, the “HIP” referring to the catalogue number for that horse in that sale.  This reference will enable you to go to the website of the sales company involved and easily find the short video of the horse’s breeze at that sale. 

The web links for each sale are listed in the NOTES section of the new BreezeFigs Report and you will find all the information as to why we have done this and how you can benefit from this addition to the service by downloading the document which explains it all here.  Remember, no other handicapping service can give you the advantages you need from 2-year-old sales, So sign up for DRF-Plus on the front page of www.drf.com and get the BreezeFigs cards.

Our rules still hold about BreezeFigs “qualified” runners: You can get a good idea of what “qualified” BreezeFigs horses are by clicking on BreezeFigs Information underneath the two BreezeFigs links in the DRF-PLUS box in the right hand column on the www.drf.com home page and downloading files there.  Remember, keep stride length (SL) in mind when handicapping from the BreezeFigs sheet and take advantage of all the tips that we provide on those sheets as well.

If you click here you will get a document which details our latest study.  The conclusion for those who like to know the bottom line fast is this:  When it comes to 2-year-old racing only, horses that earned Group 1 or Group 2 BreezeFigs and had longer-than-average stride lengths at the five major 2-year-old sales of 2006-07-08-09 won more races, won earlier, and earned more black-type, than horses with shorter-than-average stride lengths, regardless of BreezeFigs Group.  There’s a lot more to it than that, and a review of this document, which is the first in a series, will strengthen your hand at the windows, or, if you are a buyer, at the sales or claim box.  So, download it and absorb.

Also, refer to a study we did which shows that using BreezeFigs for 3-year-old maiden races in just as viable as using them for 2-year-old maiden races.  Go to the DRF PLUS box on the www.drf.com home page, click on BreezeFigs™ Information, and then download “2006 Sales Study,” or just click right here.

If you’d like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here.

Here’s our Pick for Saturday:

Hollywood Park, 4th Race, Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs (Turf)

A first-timer here, Royal Alexander, may shock us and get a piece of this thing, but not based on his four-under-Par Group 3 profile at OBSAPR where he rumbled a quarter mile with a 22.69 foot SL, a third of a foot shorter than average for colts that day.  No, we’re going for a New York-bred out of his environment, Shy Humor, who showed very good speed in his debut at Santa Anita, justifying his nine-over-Par Group 1 rating at EASMAY where his 25.40 foot SL was 1.65 feet longer than average for colts at an eighth that day.  Someone knew something about him in his debut because he was claimed for $75k out of it, and here he is on the weeds, where this sire line excels.  Plunge!  Good luck!