05/06/2011 10:14AM

BreezeFigs Quick-Pix Saturday May 7th


It’s very rare but sometimes it happens:  Both our Pix last week were in the same race and they were the only ones scratched from that race.  So, no football spiking and no mea culpa.  Instead, we will give you our ballpark estimates of the Kentucky Derby and also spotlight our first 2-year-old race of the season.  See below, and best of luck!

Before we get to the business of Pix, remember the 2011 sales sheets have a major change in the NOTES section: The OBSFEB sale was eliminated and combined with OBSMAR, and that forced a re-evaluation of the CLASS EDGE for the various sales.  Pay attention because there has been an upgrade for OBSMAR and a consolidation of categories.

Also, don’t forget the change we made for the 2010 sales sheets (which is also in the 2011 sheets), in the SALE column: It’s now labeled SALE & HIP, the “HIP” referring to the catalogue number for that horse in that sale.  This reference will enable you to go to the website of the sales company involved and easily find the short video of the horse’s breeze at that sale. 

The web links for each sale are listed in the NOTES section of the new BreezeFigs Report and you will find all the information as to why we have done this and how you can benefit from this addition to the service by downloading the document which explains it all here.  Remember, no other handicapping service can give you the advantages you need from 2-year-old sales, So sign up for DRF-Plus on the front page of www.drf.com and get the BreezeFigs cards.

Our rules still hold about BreezeFigs “qualified” runners: You can get a good idea of what “qualified” BreezeFigs horses are by clicking on BreezeFigs Information underneath the two BreezeFigs links in the DRF-PLUS box in the right hand column on the www.drf.com home page and downloading files there.  Remember, keep stride length (SL) in mind when handicapping from the BreezeFigs sheet and take advantage of all the tips that we provide on those sheets as well.

If you click here you will get a document which details our latest study.  The conclusion for those who like to know the bottom line fast is this:  When it comes to 2-year-old racing only, horses that earned Group 1 or Group 2 BreezeFigs and had longer-than-average stride lengths at the five major 2-year-old sales of 2006-07-08-09 won more races, won earlier, and earned more black-type, than horses with shorter-than-average stride lengths, regardless of BreezeFigs Group.  There’s a lot more to it than that, and a review of this document, which is the first in a series, will strengthen your hand at the windows, or, if you are a buyer, at the sales or claim box.  So, download it and absorb.

Also, refer to a study we did which shows that using BreezeFigs for 3-year-old maiden races in just as viable as using them for 2-year-old maiden races.  Go to the DRF PLUS box on the www.drf.com home page, click on BreezeFigs™ Information, and then download “2006 Sales Study,” or just click right here.

If you’d like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here.

Here’s our Pix for Saturday:

Churchill Downs, 11th Race, Kentucky Derby (G1), 1 ¼ Miles (Dirt)

Four BreezeFigs horses are entered in this race—Stay Thirsty, Decisive Moment, Comma to the Top, and Twinspired—and both Decisive Moment and Twinspired had stride lengths of longer than 25 feet at the sales last year.  In addition, we have examined races of most of the other horses in this field  and have come up with three others who deserves some attention—Soldat, Mucho Macho Man and Dialed In.  That said, this is a very eclectic field with absolutely no standout—the horse that gets the right trip is going to need to be fairly close and handy, and in that respect we’re not quite sure that Dialed In can catch up at the end.  Decisive Moment has excellent speed, but he is a very big horse and needs to be rated to last through the stretch.  Twinspired is, of course, everyone’s hunch bet because of his name, and he has the kind of steady pace with a quick middle move but no real dirt success.  Mucho Macho Man just hangs in there all the time and if the others don’t punch, he might outlast them.  Soldat has a clever outfit behind him and was very impressive in all his races except one, and we think that was an aberration.  So we come down to a Soldat-Twinspired-Mucho Macho Man gimmick key and you can throw in Decisive Moment and Dialed In for superfecta potential.  Other than that, we have no opinion.

Arlington Park, 3rd Race, Maiden Special Weight, 4 ½ Furlongs (Synthetic)

Three of the four BreezeFigs horses that have appeared on the card so far went through the OBSMAR sale—one of them won, another was second, so this race has some line-through-the-sale potential.  Off the profiles, Distort This, who was an 85k RNA, has the best shot in this scramble—he was  a Group 1three-over-Par with a 24.93 foot SL, well over a foot longer than average for that day.  Backdoor Kenny, on the other hand, was a three-under-Par Group 3 performer with a close to average 23.61 foot SL.  Off those numbers, Distort This is the horse to play, but we will caution you that early short sprint races often go to shorter striding horses, as was rudely proven to us by the first winner of the year, Phu Be Smokin, who was sole at the same sale for 6k after a desultory 11.2 second breeze for 1/8 of a mile and a 20.37 foot SL, but managed to chug-chug-chug to a short win at Lone Star the other night.  Go figure, and good luck!