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BreezeFigs Quick-Pix Saturday May 5th, 2012
Old business first: Our Pick last week, Don Siete, pooped out in the stretch but returns today in the 12th at Tampa Bay—might be worth another look. And the first Group 1 starter from the 2012 sales romped this week (see below in our Pick for today).
As for the Kentucky Derby, here’s our quick take: There are four horses in there who are BreezeFigs graduates—Union Rags, Bodemeister, I’ll Have Another, and Trinniberg. Based on their profiles, we think the following:
We think you can toss Trinniberg because even though he had a solid three-over-Par BreezeFig at OBSAPR with a serious 24.18 foot SL (1.21 feet longer than average that day), he is a speed burner of some quality who is likely to fade after a mile from what should be a contested pace.
As for I’ll Have Another, who comes out of the same OBSAPR sale with a far different profile, he’s a head-scratcher. He was a one-under-Par Group 4 puppy there with a 22.43 foot SL—more than a half-foot shorter than average that day. He’s obviously got a solid engine in there (cardio system) that enables him to overcome some fairly average efficiency, and he is the kind of one-paced grinder who can clunk up at the end for a piece, but only if the whole thing really falls apart.
Both Union Rags and Bodemeister come out of FTFFEB where after posting a solid one-over-Par Group 2 profile Bodemeister was scratched from the sale and never went through the ring. He had a 24.25 foot SL which was only .11 feet longer than average that day, and he was actually going faster in the last sixteenth of a mile than he did in the first. This could mean that his motor is also pretty decent and from his past performances that seems to be what has gotten him here. As for Union Rags, he was co-highest rated that day with a six-over-Par BreezeFig that included a 25.90 foot SL (1.76 feet longer than average that day), but he was slowing down a tad at the end of his work, and he has shown that he needs to be covered up in his races to take full advantage of that stride.
We have no solid stride or other evidence we can present for the others in the race, but like many we see this coming down to Union Rags and Bodemeister, with Gemologist the most likely to either split them, or swallow them whole. Over to you. For our first baby Pick of the season, see below. Good luck!
Before we get to the business of Pix, remember the 2011and now 2012 sales sheets have major changes in the NOTES section: For 2011, the OBSFEB sale was eliminated and combined with OBSMAR, and for 2012, the FTFFEB sale was moved to March, so it is now known as FTFMAR. Both of these changes forced a re-evaluation of the CLASS EDGE for the various sales. Pay attention because there has been an upgrade for OBSMAR and a consolidation of categories.
Also, don’t forget the change we made for the 2010 sales sheets (which is also in the 2011 and 2012 sheets), in the SALE column: It’s now labeled SALE & HIP, the “HIP” referring to the catalogue number for that horse in that sale. This reference will enable you to go to the website of the sales company involved and easily find the short video of the horse’s breeze at that sale.
The web links for each sale are listed in the NOTES section of the new BreezeFigs Report and you will find all the information as to why we have done this and how you can benefit from this addition to the service by downloading the document which explains it all here. Remember, no other handicapping service can give you the advantages you need from 2-year-old sales, So sign up for DRF-Plus on the front page of www.drf.com and get the BreezeFigs cards.
Our rules still hold about BreezeFigs “qualified” runners: You can get a good idea of what “qualified” BreezeFigs horses are by clicking on BreezeFigs Information underneath the two BreezeFigs links in the DRF-PLUS box in the right hand column on the www.drf.com home page and downloading files there. Remember, keep stride length (SL) in mind when handicapping from the BreezeFigs sheet and take advantage of all the tips that we provide on those sheets as well.
If you click here you will get a document which details our latest study. The conclusion for those who like to know the bottom line fast is this: When it comes to 2-year-old racing only, horses that earned Group 1 or Group 2 BreezeFigs and had longer-than-average stride lengths at the five major 2-year-old sales of 2006-07-08-09 won more races, won earlier, and earned more black-type, than horses with shorter-than-average stride lengths, regardless of BreezeFigs Group. There’s a lot more to it than that, and a review of this document, which is the first in a series, will strengthen your hand at the windows, or, if you are a buyer, at the sales or claim box. So, download it and absorb.
Also, refer to a study we did which shows that using BreezeFigs for 3-year-old maiden races in just as viable as using them for 2-year-old maiden races. Go to the DRF PLUS box on the www.drf.com home page, click on BreezeFigs™ Information, and then download “2006 Sales Study,” or just click right here.
If you’d like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here.
Here’s our Pick for Saturday:
Betfair Hollywood Park, 1st Race, Maiden Special Weight, 4 ½ Furlongs (Synthetic)
Miss Empire is only the fourth 2012 BreezeFigs graduate to start so far this year, and the other three have pretty much run to form with Leinan, a Group 1 filly at OBSMAR romping by five on the last day at Keeneland, and the other two (both Group 3 horses) running out of the money at Hollywood and Keeneland). Miss Empire earned and even-par Group 2 profile at OBSMAR where she had a reasonable 23.61 foot SL at 1/8 of a mile, a quarter foot longer than average for fillies that day. She may not be that quick off the mark, but if she can settle in a 4 ½ furlong dash, she might be worth a couple of bucks on the nose and a mix in the gimmicks. Good luck!